Your Hopes for US NATIONALS

[sfgirl]

What are the dates of competition for the compulsory, original, and free skate in ice dance?

 

[sashaisgreat]

The Ladies - no way can anyone pick the podium but they can hope.

The Men - are Abbott, Weir, Lysacek, but what order and think of whom I am leaving out! Rippon, Bradley, Carriere, Mroz, and the ever popular Pennington.

Pairs - Hard to think anyone can beat McL/Bru but there is a renewed Inoue/Baldwin and, a comeback for Castille/Okalski. How about Evora/Ladwig.
Vise/Trent; Paetsch/Nuss; Yankawskas/ Coughlin Not that easy to pick silver and bronze.

Skate Dance - D/W followed by S/B. Because of WD of B/A. it will be a battle betwen N/B and The Hubbells.

If everyone skates their best, this should be the best Nationals since when?

What about Matthews and Gislason? I think they will definatly be in that battle for a medal. Remember brand new teams have medaled in dance before.(Stiegler and Magerovski) especially since the third and fourth spot will not go to worlds due to B./A being named to the team.

 

[chuckm]

I don't think Matthews/Gislason will be on the podium. The Hubbells' Junior FD outscored M/G's Eastern Sectionals FD by 5 points, and that was ISU judges as compared to high-scoring USA judges. They could also be passed by Summersett/Gilles, whose FD outscored M/G's by 3 points, also by ISU judges.

 

[samba]

Since B/A is out, need to update my predictions:

Men: Abbott, Weir, Lysacek, Carriere
Ladies: Ashley, Rachel, Caroline, Mirai
Pairs: Mc/B, Brooke/Ben, I/B, Evora/Ladwig
Dance: D/W, S/B, H/H, S/G

Ladies is tough to predict, same as Dance (except for the top two, D/W, S/B). Good luck to all

 

[samba]

What are the dates of competition for the compulsory, original, and free skate in ice dance?

If you meant Senior Dance;

CD Wed.21 3:30pm-5:15pm
OD Thur.22 4:50pm-7:05pm
FD Sat. 24 1:05pm-2:05pm Group 1 (10-16)
4:15pm-5:55pm Group2 (1-9)

 

[samba]

What about Matthews and Gislason? I think they will definatly be in that battle for a medal. Remember brand new teams have medaled in dance before.(Stiegler and Magerovski) especially since the third and fourth spot will not go to worlds due to B./A being named to the team.

Morgan was great, but I don't know about Lief. They do not seem to connect, they're different style. He looked awkward when skated with Morgan. I think they still have long way to go to be on the podium.

 

[sashaisgreat]

I don't think Matthews/Gislason will be on the podium. The Hubbells' Junior FD outscored M/G's Eastern Sectionals FD by 5 points, and that was ISU judges as compared to high-scoring USA judges. They could also be passed by Summersett/Gilles, whose FD outscored M/G's by 3 points, also by ISU judges.

Yes but M/G got that score with a major fall in the step sequence in the freedance which is at least a 7 point deduction. And they were more than 30 points ahead of the next couple. There was no need to put them any higher. Neither of those other teams had any chance of catching M/G. If they skate clean, I think they will blow away H/H and S/G. As I remember from M/Z, their junior international competitions got much higher scores than they did at nationals the year that they competed both levels.

Actually M/G combined od and compulsory dance score of 88.5 would have put then second at Skate Canada just behind D/W who were 90.68. I compared these two because Skate Canada had the same compulsory dance and M/G had no major booboos in their compulsory or OD. Now I will admit that skating clean at nationals has been a problem for my girl morgan with both partners. So, they MUST skate clean.

 

[Michelle'sFan]

I didn't realize Tanith and Ben were out :no:

D/W have been around a while but always under Tanith and Ben's shadow. I haven't really looked at the scores but is there any chance (barring a disaster) that D/W won't win the title? Anyone foresee an upset?

Michelle's Fan

 

[samba]

Yes but that was with a major fall in the step sequence in the freedance which is at least a 7 point deduction. And they were 30 points ahead of the next couple. There was no need to put them any higher. Neither of those other teams had any chance of catching themm If they skate clean, I think they will blow away H/H and S/G. As I remember from M/Z their junior international competitions got much higher scores than they did at nationls the year that they competed both levels.

The problem was to "skate clean". Morgan fell twice at Nats. 2006, didn't make it to Oly. that year. She fell again at Eastern. I think the team have great potential but don't rush them, give them some time to develop.

You can't compare scores from different judge panel, particularly ISU with local US panel. Eastern always overscored when compare with other Sectionals. We will know in the next few days if they would blow away H/H and S/G. at Nats. with the same judge panel.

 

[chuckm]

Yes but M/G got that score with a major fall in the step sequence in the freedance which is at least a 7 point deduction. And they were more than 30 points ahead of the next couple. There was no need to put them any higher. Neither of those other teams had any chance of catching M/G. If they skate clean, I think they will blow away H/H and S/G. As I remember from M/Z, their junior international competitions got much higher scores than they did at nationals the year that they competed both levels.

Actually M/G combined od and compulsory dance score of 88.5 would have put then second at Skate Canada just behind D/W who were 90.68. I compared these two because Skate Canada had the same compulsory dance and M/G had no major booboos in their compulsory or OD. Now I will admit that skating clean at nationals has been a problem for my girl morgan with both partners. So, they MUST skate clean.

You are comparing INTERNATIONAL scores with SECTIONAL scores (inflated compared to ISU scoring). You have no way of knowing how M/G would have stacked up against D/W (or S/G, for that matter) because M/G have never competed internationally and to ISU judges, they would be a brand-new team. Gislason skated at a Senior ISU Championship just twice: with Senft, 5th at 2005 4CC and 6th at 2007 4CC; they never competed at Worlds.

Neither Matthews (with Zavozin, 4th in 2006 and 6th in 2007) nor Gislason (with Senft, 6th in 2006 and 4th in 2007) has ever medaled at their respective championships.

 

[Pikachuusb]

Wow talk about up in the air predictions for Nationals. Im just hoping everyone skates their best and has zero meltdowns. Im also hoping everyone skates well enough and is healthy enough at Worlds to earn each discipline 3 spots(hey one can dream)

Ladies...eesh talk about a toughie

Im hoping Mirai, Caroline & Alissa end up on the podium with Mirai & Caroline going to Worlds bringing in enough points to get 3 spots, but it may be Rachel & Ashley heading to Worlds who knows. Its such a toss up. I just hope whoever goes does great at Worlds.

Men:

I hope Johnny wins and Jeremy ends up on the podium. Although Id love to see Ryan at Worlds with a great/entertaining performance Ryan is always fun to watch. I hope Adam does well with his coaching change and shows what he can do. I "think" the World team will be: Johnny, Evan & Jeremy.

Pairs...Im hoping the podium will look like this:

1. McLaughlin & Brubaker
2. Castille & Okolski
3. Evora & Ladwig

Dance...Im sad Ben is injured get well soon!! with them gone, Im hoping the podium will look like this(ish)

1. Davis & White
2. Samuelson & Bates
3. Navarro & Bommentre
4. Matthews & Gislason

but in reality the way the year has been going who knows who will make anything I just hope everyone does their best and we all get a good show

 

[sashaisgreat]

You are comparing INTERNATIONAL scores with SECTIONAL scores (inflated compared to ISU scoring). You have no way of knowing how M/G would have stacked up against D/W (or S/G, for that matter) because M/G have never competed internationally and to ISU judges, they would be a brand-new team. Gislason skated at a Senior ISU Championship just twice: with Senft, 5th at 2005 4CC and 6th at 2007 4CC; they never competed at Worlds.

Neither Matthews (with Zavozin, 4th in 2006 and 6th in 2007) nor Gislason (with Senft, 6th in 2006 and 4th in 2007) has ever medaled at their respective championships.

Matthews was 4th with Zavozin in 2006 (a medal) and 5th in 2003 and 2007. She and Max won junior at nationals twice. They were 2nd in 2006 at 4CC and first and third at the JGP final and Jr worlds two years in a row. Hardly a Nobody. They also placed 4th at Skate America in 2007. You started the ISU comparison not me.

 

[chuckm]

Matthews was 4th with Zavozin in 2006 (a medal) and 5th in 2003 and 2007. She and Max won junior at nationals twice. They were 2nd in 2006 at 4CC and first and third at the JGP final and Jr worlds two years in a row. Hardly a Nobody. They also placed 4th at Skate America in 2007. You started the ISU comparison not me.

Yes, Morgan has earned lots of laurels, but with ZAVOZIN, not Gislason. Gislason competed with Senft in 3 GP events and finished 7th, 8th and 8th.

And when I mentioned S/G's and H/H's scores, I made a point of saying they were ISU scores rather than the inflated Sectional scores that M/G received (btw, the only competitive scores they've had for the past two seasons). Yes, M/G placed much higher than the other two teams at Sectionals, but that was to be expected, considering that one of those teams finished 10th at 2008 Nationals and the other was a brand-new team.

You went on to favorably compare M/G's scores with D/W's at Skate Canada.. You can bet that D/W's scores at Nationals will far, far exceed whatever M/G get.

 

[samba]

Yes, Morgan has earned lots of laurels, but with ZAVOZIN, not Gislason. Gislason competed with Senft in 3 GP events and finished 7th, 8th and 8th.

And when I mentioned S/G's and H/H's scores, I made a point of saying they were ISU scores rather than the inflated Sectional scores that M/G received (btw, the only competitive scores they've had for the past two seasons). Yes, M/G placed much higher than the other two teams at Sectionals, but that was to be expected, considering that one of those teams finished 10th at 2008 Nationals and the other was a brand-new team.

You went on to favorably compare M/G's scores with D/W's at Skate Canada.. You can bet that D/W's scores at Nationals will far, far exceed whatever M/G get.

Well said, totally agree :agree:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I saw the problem with M/Z as his problem - not hers. He was intent on looking down on the ice to see that every step he did was correct. There was little rapport between them. btw, how is he doing with his new partner?

I'm looking forward to seeing Mathews with G to see if they at least have rapport.

 

[chuckm]

I saw the problem with M/Z as his problem - not hers. He was intent on looking down on the ice to see that every step he did was correct. There was little rapport between them. btw, how is he doing with his new partner?

I'm looking forward to seeing Mathews with G to see if they at least have rapport.

Morgan was intent on connecting with the audience, not with Max. So the 'rapport' problem was both their faults.

Max Zavozin is making his international debut skating for Hungary with Nora Hoffmann at Europeans (the same week as Nationals).

 

[samba]

I guess if Morgan stayed with her original plan to skate for Arzerbaijan, M/G could have been at European instead of US Nats., competing again Max and Nora .

 

[feraina]

Just saw some recent videos of Mirai:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgVgOn2aiEU&feature=channel_page
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJsF5xirA7Y&feature=channel_page

She looks stronger than she did at NHK (still going for the cutesy look though). The first 3R looks under-rotate, as does the 3T. The second 3R looks better, but hard to tell downgradable or not without slow-mo. The 2A's look great. That last spin is pretty cool. If she can come out before it loses speed, that'd be even better.

So, if Mirai continues to improve on her jumps before National's, she should easily pose a medal threat. The top four ladies from last year should still be the top four to battle it out this year. It may all come down to how consistent and strict the downgrade and edge calls are.

 

[feraina]

Just read on FSU that Ashley Wagner skated Spartacus well at the Wilmington Delaware National's Send-Off, including a triple-triple. So it looks like she's training to incorporate the 3-3 in time for National's after all!

Maybe it will be like last season: no 3-3 from anyone besides Rachael & Caroline until National's, and then boom, everyone comes out with 3-3. It's certainly shaping up to be a very exciting and competitive championship, at least as much so as last year. Except this time, all the skaters will be a bit more mature than last year, and Caroline will have grown 4 inches, and Mirai 3. Can't wait!

 

[R.D.]

Gotta hope skaters stay on their feet though. The SP likely won't be a problem, but the FS is where nerves could kick in.