US Chances in Sochi

[koheikun90]

I feel this is going to be weakest team the US will send to an Olympics. Aside from D/W, I don't think the US has any chances of winning medals. It seems as though the most exciting part of Nationals next week is seeing who's going to participate in the Olympics. Perhaps producing mediocre results might be the wake up call for the USFSA to address reform. This includes restructuring the way the national team trains and how skaters are selected to compete at major international events. Perhaps they can take note back in 1999 when the US Women's Gymnastics team finished dead last in the team final at worlds and one year later completely transformed its program. What do you think? You think this the wake up call the US needs? I think it's time. The US has so many talented juniors and novice skaters and I would hate if they fall through the cracks because the system is not doing its best to cultivate competitive skaters.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Still, having a U.S ice dance team to win an Olympic gold would be pretty fantastic. Especially against such a superior team like V/M. Ashley will likely place top 5. . .

 

[Mrs. P]

Eh, I don't buy the argument that if the U.S. had a different qualification system that Team USA would have different results. I think we just happen to be in a down part of a competition cycle. And depending on where other countries are on that same cycle, that could affect international results.

After this season, for example, we're likely to see a mass retirement in the men in Japan. As it stands, Yuzuru is the only one left and will hold the team until the younger kids (Uno, Kanaka) catch up, which might or might not happen.

The U.S. men have a bunch of promising contenders in Nathan Chen, Jason Brown and Joshua Farris who can seize the top with all these retirements.

There is a 14 year gap between Midori's Olympic Silver and Shiuzka's Olympic Gold, despite promising talent there. It's only within the last 10 years or so that Japan really dominated in the Ladies and that momentum might slow down with with the retirements of Mao and Akiko.

Really, what I think we're seeing here is a valley (with the exception of Ice Dance) in the competition cycle of Team USA. I don't think it will last forever.

That said, I do agree that perhaps USFSA could improve in how they develop up-and-coming skaters as far as getting competition experience.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If they win a gold and another medal it would be their best Olympics since 2002, and their best foreign Olympics since 1992.

In Vancouver 2010 they won a gold (men) and a silver (dance).

A gold in ice dance would be a great takeaway. Not to mention the potential Team Gold. I think they have an outside shot with Wagner, but zero chances in men and pairs.

 

[Jammers]

The US Ladies were due for a slump when you think about it. Over 50 years of dominance could not be sustain it had to end sooner or later. In fact if not for the 1961 plan crash the US Ladies would have medaled at every Olympics over a 54 year span. Makes the Japanese dominance over the last decade or so look rather weak.

 

[Sochi_2014]

I don't think we are really even in a slump. We have 3 spots for the ladies, and 2 spots for the men. That's not so bad compared to say, Russia, who only has 2 ladies' spots and 1 spot for the men. Davis and White are set up for a gold medal too. Ashley has a decent chance at a bronze. And even if she doesn't medal, it's not exactly a slump. I don't think the US needs to revamp its national training regimen. It's not necessary. Our field actually has a lot of depth with the younger kids coming up, and I would say that in 2018, we have a great shot at a couple more medals. Gracie Gold, Polina Edmunds, Samantha Cesario, Nathan Chen, Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, the Shibutanis, etc...

And on top of those up and comers, I doubt Ashley will retire with a wide open international field after Sochi. She's only 22 after all, and is poised to take over for Carolina, Mao, Yuna, and Akiko after this season.

I think the US team will be just fine, I'm not worried

 

[Jaana]

I think D/W have a chance for GM, but I´m not expecting men winning any medal and it will be a nice surprise if Ashley wins a bronze medal.

 

[Amei]

I don't think we are really even in a slump. We have 3 spots for the ladies, and 2 spots for the men. Ashley has a decent chance at a bronze. And even if she doesn't medal, it's not exactly a slump. I don't think the US needs to revamp its national training regimen. It's not necessary.

Ashley has a very outside chance of being on the podium, based on several other people messing up, in Olympics prior the U.S. has been favorites for OGM; this Olympics it's- if someone messes up we maybe have a shot at bronze. I think we are in a slump not necessarily in training but just in star talent (no offense to our current crop of skaters, I don't mean to sound harsh) I mean, there just isn't an American lady that makes a casual fan (IMO) stand up and say- You have to watch x skate, or that when we can see her skate it's going to be something amazing or a lock for a medal. The last 4 years at the top of ladies figure skating it's been Mao vs. Yu-na, I feel like the next 4 years is going to be the battle of the Russian babies.

Our field actually has a lot of depth with the younger kids coming up, and I would say that in 2018, we have a great shot at a couple more medals. Gracie Gold, Polina Edmunds, Samantha Cesario, Nathan Chen, Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, the Shibutanis, etc...

On the ladies, I disagree with the phrase 'younger kids coming up' - Gracie is 18 and Samantha is 20, considering most other countries 'up and comers' are 13/14 year olds. Our most promising up& comers are in what's probably the climax of their competitive career (basing this off most of the OGM's are 16-20 at time of winning).

 

[Poodlepal]

This reminds me of the thread I started a couple of months ago, about "the next big thing" that wasn't. The reason the US ladies are in a slump (and the men, to some extent) is because they've just had a run of people who either weren't that good, or were good but just not competitive with with people from several quadrennials who didn't retire even after winning a medal.

I mean, if it were 2006, someone probably said, "Well, too bad that Sasha only got silver, but look at Kimmie Meissner, and up and coming are Beatrica Liang, Katy Taylor, etc." In 2010, everyone said, "Mirai's in 4th now, but wait until 2014!" It's not the nationals that's the problem, it's a few cycles of teens who never broke through for one reason or another.

 

[Orc]

US & their chances of winning/medalling? Isn't that like an oxymoron lol

 

[Sochi_2014]

To each his own Amei

 

[mskater93]

On the ladies, I disagree with the phrase 'younger kids coming up' - Gracie is 18 and Samantha is 20, considering most other countries 'up and comers' are 13/14 year olds. Our most promising up& comers are in what's probably the climax of their competitive career (basing this off most of the OGM's are 16-20 at time of winning).

I disagree. Yes, Kim and Asada were in their teens last go, but since 2002, there's been an "aging" of the medalists into their 20s (back to where it was when figures accounted in the scoring). Also, at 13/14, it's really a crapshoot who's going to come through puberty intact (not just physically, but mentally)

 

[Robeye]

US & their chances of winning/medalling? Isn't that like an oxymoron lol

Jeezus, don't you get tired of irritating others for no reason? Yes, IMO, that fits the definition of trolling. If you think that US chances are low, then say so and state why. But your sniggering, sorry excuse for a "joke" is exaggerated and is clearly designed just to piss people off. Davis and White go into Sochi as favorites. Ashley has at least as good a chance to medal, IMO, as Julia or Adelina. Your "king of the ice", Plushenko, is struggling, which you are "sad" about. Unlike you, however, I do not believe in kicking people when I think they are down.

And yes, I'm an American.

 

[blue_idealist]

I don't think there will be any medals in men's or pairs for the US but I still think Wagner's got a shot at a silver or bronze in the ladies event.

 

[mskater93]

Wagner will need to hit a grand slam at the Olympics to end up on the podium or skate cleanest of the bronze medal candidates

 

[b-man]

^ Agree. I originally figured Wagner for fourth or fifth. Kim is likely to be close to clean and a big favorite, while Mao and Carolina will get huge PCS whether they skate well, or not. Julia has been consistent most of the year and looked strong at Russian nationals. Akiko is looking terrific, and Sot, usually inconsistent, is coming into top form and will get home ice boost in Sochi. Wagner will likewise need to be in top form to have any chance at a podium, and a substandard skate could drop her to sixth-seventh.

 

[mskater93]

Yep, like I said - needs a grand slam!

 

[islandpaddler]

Yep, like I said - needs a grand slam!

Two words: Sarah Hughes. Anything is possible.

 

[mskater93]

I am not saying it's not possible, just that she'd have to NAIL it.

 

[Jedi]

I think D and W are a sure bet for gold and if they slip maybe silver. Wagner has a decent shot at bronze maybe even silver. Gold could sneakin for bronze but I doubt both girls would medal - surely Mao,Kostner, Lipinskaiya Or Sotnkiova or Suzuki or even Murakami could sneak in for a medal ahead of Gold. ( The stars aliging for two US ladies winning medals is slim and unlikely). Pairs I have to say I can't reven remember who skates with who and the men well could medal - Abbott or even a clean Aaron with the quads but there are so many good men - Hanyu, Chan, Dai,Machida,Yan, two cech guys,two French gus and while it isn't looking good Reynolds as well as a Russian and current WBM Fernandez.