Frozen A$$ets: 2006 (Who'll be the hottest post-Turin commodities?)

I just finished reading Mark Lund's book Frozen Assets, on the big-business aspect of figure skating. That book was published in 2002, shortly after the Salt Lake City Olympics.

I am now thinking about the valuable facts that were presented in that book, i.e., the few lucky skaters who happen to sign with either the Tom Collins (COI) or IMG (SOI) organizations make the big loot. In the book, Collins and IMG staff described the qualities that they look for in skaters:

* charisma/"it" factor in their presentation
* name-recognition among North American fans
* positive attitude/team player
* medals...nice to have the gold but not necessary

Once Turin ends, WHO, among today's eligible skaters, will be sought after & offered new contracts with COI and IMG. [In the case of IMG, we're talking full professionals, I think.]

My choices:

#1 by far - ZHEN/ZHAO (what a shame if the reports of his injury are true...but they'll still be hot commodities, IMO)

#2 - PLUSHENKO...but I see him staying with COI, rather than join his arch-rival Yagudin at SOI

#3 - COHEN - if she can overcome her 'difficult' image (or just prove that it's not true)

KWAN - I don't list her because she is already entrenched as the 'superstar non-professional professional" with Tom Collins. DITTO Slutskaya...a 'permanent' Tom Collins gal.

Anyone else? I think that FLEUR MAXWELL is a longshot with possibilities. STEFAN LAMBIEL certainly has the "it" factor & is gaining ground with medals.

Would any of the great Japanese ladies fit the bill? Everyone agrees that they skate very well but I'm not convinced that they have "It" just yet.

Were BELBIN/AGOSTO able to compete in Turin, they'd be absolute 'shoo ins' for IMG/SOI, I think.

Even if someone keeps their Oly eligiblity while touring with SOI, they can't compete and tour at the same time. So, I think a lot of skaters who otherwise might be SOI naturals (Cohen, Belgostos) won't go with them -- unless win the OGM (even if Belgostos compete, I doubt they will beat N/K; and if the OGM goes to Slutskaya or Kwan, I think Cohen will stay Oly eligiblie; by the Vancouver Olys, Cohen will be roughly the same age that Michelle or Irina will by by Torino.)

After looking over the criteria to get a job with one of these biggies, I can understand why an Oly gold medalist is upset if not skating last on the program. In fact, as I understand it, these big important N.American shows are commercial ventures and they are going to use whatever it takes to bring in an audience. that's the way it is in businessland.

Kwan's name sells to the casual fan as well as to the ardent fan. In addition, the general public has seen her, liked her and she is known throughout the sports world. When a person asks you what are you interested in and you reply figure skating, there is no surprise when the person says: oh I know, Michelle Kwan.
She may not get an olympic gold, but her name is golden for the producers of these shows. Anyone know what they pay her?

Sasha has many many ardent fans who support her in every which way. Casual fans get to like her once they've seen her. She has her choice of SOI or COI. She'll add to the producers' coffers.

Too bad Stephane didn't remain longer with COI to get more recognition from the casual fan. After 2006, I think he will hang around for 2010.

In the last analysis, the producers of these shows will do what they think is best for their profits. they may make a mistake, but they will correct that in due course. They owe nothing to the skater, unfortunately.

Joe

Cool topic, Frau Muller.

1. I think an Olympic gold medal would be worth millions to Sasha. Even without it she has a reasonably bright future with either COI or SOI. As Joe points out, she already has an ardent fan base and she knows how to give the audience what they came to see.

But as Olympic gold medallist she could write her own ticket.

2. Michelle. I agree with Frau Muller. Michelle's fortune is already made, her future as a performer secure.

3. Irina. Irina is very popular with U.S. audiences already. Her long and, for the most part, friendly rivalry with Michelle has brought her a lot of attention and good will in America. She is a crowd pleaser, especially when she does cute and flirty numbers, like her Cowboy Joe routine two years ago. With an Olympic gold medal she would probably get to skate last on the 2006 COI tour, with an appropriate raise in salary.

I'm not sure how long Irina would want to continue touring.

4. An Olympic gold would put Carolina Kostner on the map and secure her fortune, at least in the short run, IMHO.

5. Johnnie Weir is already immensely well received with COI, just based on his two U.S. championships. An Olympic medal would give him "legs," but he doesn't really need it. His Unchained Melody on this year's COI tour was a show-stopper.

6. Tim Goebel is a super guy, which the audiences seem to appreciate. But, to me, he could find himself on the bubble if he doesn't at least make the Olympic team. His jumps are neither as spectacular or as reliable as they were in the past, and without them, whether in competition or in exhibition-style skating, some of the other men (Lysacek, for instance) have more to offer.

7. Jenny Kirk. As much as I like her, she is getting by on pretty. She needs to make the Olympic team to secure her continuation with COI. Otherwise, her spot would be up for grabs, IMHO. Of the next generation, I would like to see Beatrisa Liang get a chance at entertaining a crowd.

8. Jeff Buttle already got to skate on the SOI-Canada tour, based on his Canadian championship and world silver. Another "nice guy" (like Goebel) he has great audience appeal.

9. Eman. Along with Sasha, he is the one that could cash in most dramatically with an Olympic medal, especially gold. With a gold medal in his pocket he could concentrate on artistic programs and become a combination Toller Cranston / John Curry.

10. Belbin and Agosto. Best scenario for them: they don't go to the Olympics, but they do become world champions as Navka and Kostomorov retire. They are already the darlings of COI audiences, and they would have four years to tour as the Olympic heirs-apparent.

11. Navka and Kostomorov, and other Russian dance teams. Tough sledding as far as SOI and COI are concerned. They have a difficult time projecting any personality to an audience that doesn't know or care much about ice dance anyway. Maybe a one-year contract, then we'll see. Maybe they could stick if Navka learns to twirl a hula-hoop.

12. Chinese pairs. In the 2003 COI tour Shen and Zhou closed the first half with Turandot and got as much applause as Michelle. In 2004 they were injured and Pang and Tong filled in, doing quite nicely, but without quite the audience rapport of S&Z. (S&Z are like Michelle -- we have watched them "grow up" in the sport, right before our very eyes, and American audiences have sort of adopted them.)

With the more serious injury to Hongbo, Zhang and Zhang might win an Olympic silver medal. This could give them a toe-hold with COI, if S & Z withdraw altogether. They are an attractive and energetic couple. They could catch on. I don't know if they would be interested in touring in the U.S. or not.

13. Totmianina and Marinen Same problems as Navka and Kostomorov. But they did much better as show skaters last year with COI than I expected they would. Also, audiences were sympathetic because of the bad accident. The Olympic gold would give them a chance to strut their stuff and see if anyone liked it or not.

14. Plooshie. Same as Michelle. He can skate with COI as long as he wants (or at least until the next Big Thing comes along). With an Olympic gold medal he could command more money, I suppose, but he doesn't really need the medal. He is such a majestic skater that audiences can't help but respect his abilities and appreciate his performances.

Health permitting, I think he will compete until 2010.

15. Lysacek aka Ray Bolger. The sky's the limit for this natural-born entertainer. It looks like he is already zeroing in on a Disney deal (Evan and Kimmie, the next two Mouseketeers). With an Olympic medal arround his neck I think he would be in great demand.

16. Joubert. Wouldn't you like to be Brian's agent, if he wins the Olympics? The next teenage heartthrob. How about that shy boyish smile, that cute little French accent?!!!! With the right marketing, he's a million dollar baby.

And why couldn't we do the same with the brooding dark good looks of Stephane Lambiel? His hair alone is worth starting a fashion craze, a la Dorothy Hamill, no?

GREAT analysis, Mathman!

I forgot to mention Kostner in my original post. Just imagine how her marketability will skyrocket if she is a major player in her home country, at the next Olympics? She's pretty & likeable on the ice, to top it off. 'Middle America' could easily fall in love with her!

WOMEN:

Obviousy, Kwan, Cohen and Slutskaya. Rochette does well in the shows she's done. Fumie might not be too bad either.

MEN
Jeff, Stephane, Plushenko, Brian, Emanuel... the list goes on.

PAIRS
Shen/Zhao. Most definitely.

DANCE
Since B/A want to stick around for 2010, the only ones who would be real showstoppers are Navka/Kostomarov and Denkova/Staviyski, though Dubreil/Lauzon would do good on Canadian tours.

Thanks for the ideas so far. Any others?

Why not have a new innovation in SHOWS?

Four big production numbers at least 20 minutes each separated by an intermission Each production number would be built around the star or stars of the piece. The Haydenettes would serve as chorus (we have to get some male haydenettes) Each piece would be by a different choreographer,and the ones which get good critical reviews would become part of a repertoire.

Is that what Curry was trying to do? or am I hot on a new idea?

Joe