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Thread: Some jump stats

  1. #1
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Some jump stats

    In a different thread, a topic I will call jump completion statistics came up. That got me curious to look at the score sheets for the top 6 ladies at worlds and compile some numbers. What I put together does not take into account the difficulty of the jumps in terms of a 3/3 is harder than a 3/2, or a 3Z is harder than a 3T. The ONLY difficulty factor I took into consideration is that all six of these ladies plan solo tripples except for the axel. So I counted any solo doubles (other than axel) as a major mistake.

    I calculated the percentages two ways. ONLY counting a jumping pass as a success if the pass got 0 GOE or better. The second % allows for "minor" mistakes which I considered to be better than -1 GOE. (doubled solo jumps are a major mistake, and not counted as a successful completion either way).

    So - setting the bar at 0 GOE or better:

    Name / passes / completed passes / %
    Slute 17 14 82%
    Cohen 17 11 65%
    Kostner 17 12 71%
    MK 17 11 65%
    Fumie 17 12 71%
    Ando 17 13 76%

    Setting the bar at better than -1 GOE (my assumption for minor mistakes)

    Name / passes / completed passes / %
    Slute 17 14 82%
    Cohen 17 14 82%
    Kostner 17 14 82%
    MK 17 12 71%
    Fumie 17 12 71%
    Ando 17 15 88%

    Of course it was a manual exercise counting these off the score sheets, so mistakes in my counting are always possible.

    I know slicing and dicing numbers isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I find it interesting. I like having access to the score sheets.

    DG

  2. #2
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    I would have left off all jumping passes with a negative GOE.

  3. #3
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm
    I would have left off all jumping passes with a negative GOE.
    The first set of %'s does leave off all jump passes with a negative GOE. It also leaves off any solo doubles with the exception of 2A.

    Don't know that these stats mean much, but I sure like to slice and dice the numbers!!

    DG

  4. #4
    Rinkside
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    Interesting. Please share any more slicing or dicing you undertake!

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    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    No problem hoptoad!! Now that more facts (i.e. music choices) and rumors (practice reports, music speculations) etc. are coming out, I'm getting motivated to organize my 2005/2006 COP binder!!


    DG

  6. #6
    Down With It
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    You and MM are our analysts.

    Since I'm in no mood to crunch the numbers of this new system (and don't even understand it much) it's nice to see the elements broken down like this. It makes for more accurate predictions.

    Keep it up...

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    Well, so far the numbers are only from one competition, so they don't contribute much toward making predictions.

  8. #8
    Down With It
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly
    Well, so far the numbers are only from one competition, so they don't contribute much toward making predictions.
    Ah, but that will change once the GP gets rolling

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I want to play! I want to play!

    Yes, as GKelly suggests, we have to be careful in interpreting these results because of the small sample size so far. It will be fun to do it for the whole Grand Prix. Someone tracked the success rate for men's quads a couple of years ago, and found that Plushenko was way out ahead of everyone else, with a success rate of over 80%.

    For just this one competition, for instance, Michelle's disasterous qualifying skate affects the totals disproportionately. She had only 3 successful jumping passes out of 7 in the qualifying round, but was 8 out of 10 in the free and short. Counting just the short and long programs we get:

    Slute 90% (80% if you don't give her credit for the extra triple loop)
    Kwan 80%
    Ando 80% (70% if you don't give her credit for a 2A with a -.30 GOE)
    Cohen 70%
    Kostner 70%
    Suguri 70% (the missed combo in the short killed her)

    Mathman

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    Ah, but that will change once the GP gets rolling
    I was blasted a few months ago for just suggesting that the scores in the CoP could be a factor for predicting if they are read correctly. for example if a top skater misses one of his/her jumps that are not normally missed, the analysis would be to skip over that element. This would be particularly important where the total CoP scores are close.

    I applaud Doggygirl for making this an issue . But it will be time consuming.

    Joe

  11. #11
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    gKelly is absolutely correct on the small size but there has to be a beginning. And, of course, the system will only be a FACTOR in predicting.

  12. #12
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly
    Well, so far the numbers are only from one competition, so they don't contribute much toward making predictions.
    Hopefully this year, both Kwan and Cohen will skate the GP so comparisons will be possible over multiple comps. That wasn't possible for 2004/2005. - no other stats available.

    DG

  13. #13
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    I applaud Doggygirl for making this an issue . But it will be time consuming.

    Joe
    <BOWING> and <SMILING> !!!!!! I don't get much applause, so I'm just going to savor the moment.

    I'll make the time, I'm pretty sure.

    DG

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