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Thread: Sun Valley / Sasha Article

  1. #16
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    Since it is probably not so good, public-relationwise, for the same country to win everything, and since the ladies skate last, this might work against Slutskaya in the case of a close contest between her and Sasha.
    Hmm...you think so?

    But, as you said, first it has to be close. And I don't think Cohen and Slutskaya are the only contenders. That's the main issue here.

  2. #17
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    It doesn't really get down to why she hasn't been able to pull it off in a major comp yet. To this day she still hasn't done so. One thing I did see though is that she fought through Worlds 05 with a determination that I've never seen from her before. So maybe in that respect there might be something in what you say. That said, it's not helping with the nerves in a big situation like this. Seriously, when was the last time a favorite won the Olympics?

    Given Cohen's position right now, and the fact that the favorite since of late seems to fall time and time again to the underdog and/or the ambitious, it doesn't look all that good for her. Of course, anything can happen, but I'm going by history here. You could say the same for Slutskaya, too. (Kwan's position ironically is a little different this time around)

    Cohen and Slutskaya have the advantage of having already competed in the Olympics. Will that help them? Maybe it might deal a little with the anxiety factor. Then again, maybe not.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    Hmm...you think so?
    Actually, no, I don't. I am probably the only figure skating fan on the planet who believes that 99% of the time the judges really do try to judge what they see, honestly and to the best of their abilities. I don't think any of these side currents matter much at all. May the best skater win!

    MM

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Actually, no, I don't. I am probably the only figure skating fan on the planet who believes that 99% of the time the judges really do try to judge what they see, honestly and to the best of their abilities. I don't think any of these side currents matter much at all. May the best skater win!

    MM
    And this is simply asking TOO much of a simple figure skating judge that's supposedly supposed to judge an event based on the SKATING- THAT NIGHT.

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    No matter what Michelle will be a favorite-especially if she wins US nationals. Which is likely.

  6. #21
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    Hi, Tarotx. Thanks for joining us.

    Even if Michelle doesn't win Nationals (but I think she will ), Michelle will be the big story in the U.S. media.

    What's cool about this Olympics, IMHO, is that this is the first time I can remember where there are half a dozen ladies with a legitimate chance to win the gold medal.

    Mathman

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarotx
    No matter what Michelle will be a favorite-especially if she wins US nationals. Which is likely.
    And you know what? I've been making this very point myself, and ITA with you.

    ETA: MM- there's absolutely NO way MK isn't winning nationals, and that's all I'll say on the matter.

  8. #23
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    Have you forgotten Kimmie?

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    Nobody is a shoo-in at Nationals! We haven't seen anybody skate yet this season, only rumors of what they are doing. How can anybody say that so and so is going to win!

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Have you forgotten Kimmie?
    Yes I have, because personally I don't think she stands much of a chance against kwan. POSSIBLY Cohen if she has an off-night (I mean an off-night by her standards), but not Kwan. JMO.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarotx
    No matter what Michelle will be a favorite-especially if she wins US nationals. Which is likely.
    Hmmm. MK will absolutely be a favorite, and have certain advantages at Nationals. I'm assuming that comp will feature an all US judging panel, and she will have the "majority vote" of the audience - she always does on home soil. A record setting 10th National title will also be on the line which I think could work in MK's favor sentimentally.

    On the flip side, Sasha has fared better than MK under NJS. Sasha has also fared better than MK at World's the last two seasons under international judging panels, both 6.0 and NJS.

    IMO? It will be an exciting season to watch!!! I can't think of a single prediction I'd be willing to make at this stage outside of the Dance category. (sorry Dance fans!)

    I think the more interesting watch at Nationals will be "who gets the #3 spot in ladies?" And with such a deep international field, I really think anything can happen at the Oly's. As many have said, may the best lady win on that night in Torino!!

    I personally think the Men's field is mighty interesting as well. But I will restrain myself from going there on a Sasha thread!!

    DG

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by millie
    Nobody is a shoo-in at Nationals! We haven't seen anybody skate yet this season, only rumors of what they are doing. How can anybody say that so and so is going to win!
    People were telling me last year left and right that I was underestimating Cohen when I basically guaranteed that Kwan would win in 2005. I knew that the competition wouldn't be up to snuff. Kimmie was just starting out, Cohen was "recovering" from yet another coaching change and a move, so I barely expected anything out of her. I would reply, "Has Cohen EVER risen to the occasion when it counts? How can she go from moving across the country, dealing with a coaching change, etc. without going through some sort of adjustment period?"

    We know the end. I said, "Toldya!" to all the doubters as Kwan took home title number nine. And she didn't even need to skate perfectly to win it.

    Now, this nationals, I'd be shocked if Kwan doesn't win. Cohen, who is her only real competitior nationally (as of right now) has never been able to rise to the occasion when it counts. And should Cohen do it this year, I'll be the first to tell you that her OGM chances have all but slipped out the window. Why? Because she would already have peaked for that season. Not to mention she'll be the American favorite, and we know the rest.

    So, in JMO, Kwan will win in 2006 (Nationals, people, not Olympics), even if she has an off-night. I don't see anyone else being able to match her there. And, if Cohen happens to win one major comp (no matter which one it is) I don't see her winning any more.

  13. #28
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    A record setting 10th National title will also be on the line which I think could work in MK's favor sentimentally.
    ITA here. This is even further proof to me. Even in a close race, I think it's going to kwan. She has a virtual lock on the National title and will continue to until she retires, IMO. I'm not convinced otherwise.

    I also agree with the NJS thing, but I see it this way: It may be a new judging system, but it's still U.S. Nationals, it's still the Kwan love fest (JMO, no one can convince me otherwise), and I think if the judges think Kwan deserves it, they'll do everything in their power to give it to her. But only one thing will tell for sure, and that's time. I'm 99% sure that Kwan will win. The other 1% is left to Time.
    Last edited by R.D.; 09-01-2005 at 07:01 PM.

  14. #29
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    DG- About that third spot- now THIS is the spot that none of us can predict with any kind of accuracy. We don't know who's going to be slightly better than the other, etc. It could be Kirk, Meissner, even Cohen if she has an off-night (like I said above), etc.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    ITA here. This is even further proof to me. Even in a close race, I think it's going to kwan. She has a virtual lock on the National title and will continue to until she retires, IMO. I'm not convinced otherwise.

    I also agree with the NJS thing, but I see it this way: It may be a new judging system, but it's still U.S. Nationals, it's still the Kwan love fest (JMO, no one can convince me otherwise), and I think if the judges think Kwan deserves it, they'll do everything in their power to give it to her. But only one thing will tell for sure, and that's time. I'm 99% sure that Kwan will win. The other 1% is left to Time.
    Nationals is of interest to me because I will actually be GOING TO WATCH IT LIVE!! Not as a predictor (for me anyway) of Oly's. While I'm sure the MK / Sasha thing will be played up big time in the media for Nationals, I don't think that has much direct relevance as a predictor for the top US placement at Oly's (medal or not). So while I agree with you that MK probably has some distinct advantages for Nationals, I don't think those advantages translate directly to Oly (or other international) predictions for next season, unlike the "old days" where the top US skater (Nationals, politikin', whatever) would translate to the highest US placement on the international scene.

    BUT - we'll all have to wait and see, especially since it's 1) first time for Nats under NJS and 2) and Oly year where anything unexpected can happen, and it probably will!!

    OK - how many more days until Campbell's?????

    DG

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