Final Lineup Confirmed for Campbell's Classic

mzheng said:

The skating is not a populating sport in Japan is not my invention. It was Fummie who said in a interview when asked how pressure she felt. She said the figure skating is not a popular sport in Japan. She hopes her doing well in worlds will help promote the figure skating in Japan. More ppl will come to watch figure skating....Just like FS is not very popular in US, but still there are money flow into the sport. But compare to other majore sports star, like basketball player, it's nothing even with MK's accumulative endorsments. That's all I said you have to compare. Compare other OGM from Japan in a popular sports of Japan (amy be Judo?) see how big endorsments they got?


While in US, ppl kept buying new stuff and throw away the old ones......tell me if you are a Market representive of some mssive consumble product, which cosume group is your easy target?

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Did Fumie say that before or after her skate off at 4Cs against Yoshie Onda for that third spot? For the longest time, Fumie was the only game in town for the Japanese so I can understand her not feeling pressure. However now there are 4 serious contenders gunning for those 3 spots and she's fortunate that Mao isn't old enough to compete in the Olympics or else she might be pushed aside in favor of Mao.

In terms of poduct endorsements, looking at the amounts paid to people, it seems that some of the most lucrative endorsements are for products that people don't buy often (ie perfume and cosmetics, luxury bags, cars). Other lucrative endorsements are for products that people consume often no matter what country they are from, ie can't keep forever b/c they are perishable (food,soft drinks and candy, liquor- which people will drink anyway). Americans tend to buy cheap clothing and throw them out every season, yet those manufacturers tend not to hire anyone to endorse that clothing.

I don't know how other athletes are fairing in Japan ( I think their breastroker is doing pretty well financially), however I do know that the Japanese Fed is packaging all of their ladies like rock stars and all this internal promotion is going to lead to endorsements. The only time I remembered the US doing this was the Campbell's ad featuring Michelle, Tara and Nicole and I think the 1998 Olympics was more popular than the 2002 Olympics, especially in the endorsement frenzy that ensued after the games for both Tara and Michelle.

I would just like to add that foreign athletes are capable of making significant money in their home countries. Katarina Witt and Boris Becker make huge money in their native country of Germany (Boris makes more, but Kat is well taken care of).

brad640 said:

The reason Joannie became a joke last season was that Skate Canada did not know how to manage her success on the GP. They tried to push her for world gold by giving her outrageously inflated scores at Canadian Nationals trying to send the message that even Irina could not touch her. Also, Canadian fans bought into the lie, thanks in part to Tracy Wilson’s fawning commentary where she acted oblivious to the over scoring. It is yet another case of Canada bemoaning its lack of champions while running any promising talent into the ground.
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That's exactly what I meant by Joannie as a joke. All the talk on the boards and articles about Joannie taking on Irina based on her 7 triple performance at Nats and Joannie skated horribly at worlds. The same fate befell Cynthia as well and now it appears that she's thinking about quitting the sport. In several interviews I've seen of Jeff, jeff talks about how his silver medal is nice but he wants to aim for gold at the Olympics. Again, while I think Jeff's skating is fantastic, it's a bit presumptuous to be talking about gold medals when you can barely land a 3 axel in competition and have no quad to speak of. But then again, that's team Canada for you. Then people wonder why Eman is such a headcase. I hope that Eman skates well at the Olympics without all the expectation of team Canada on his head.

soogar said:

I would just like to add that foreign athletes are capable of making significant money in their home countries. Katarina Witt and Boris Becker make huge money in their native country of Germany (Boris makes more, but Kat is well taken care of).

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No argument from me on this. All athletes are capable of makeing significant money in their home countries. Include US skaters. Then go on looking the fact that 50%+ ISU fundding is from US TV contract. You know where the majore money flow into the sports. This bring it back to my original point.

Lastly endorsements not only come from TV comercial. There are ways to get the endorsements. Did Sasha got a few of endorsements never shown on TV? On top of my head: the Beef company, the watch company. I use US TV contract money into ISU as an example just to show where the majore money is and where the market is.

Joesitz said:

I still contend that in order to get high PCS scores a skater must get high Tech scores. There is a corelation between the two. If you've seen competitions LIVE, it is easy to note that the next to last six to skate do not have their deserved PCS scores because they do not have the high Technical.

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Well, that theory is all well and good, but is not proven by the statistics. Miki had the highest planned TES in her World's SP, but her PCS for skating skills were generally ranked seventh, eighth, even eleventh by one judge. Fumie had the lowest planned TES in the SP but across the board had some of the highest PCS despite a fall. And Irina of course had two major errors (on the combo jump and the final combo spin) but still won 2/3 of the highest PCS placements, and three other skaters had higher planned TES.

Although I was not in Moscow, I have seen all of the top competitors LIVE at multiple competitions (both 6.0 and CoP), and when I see a judge (or several of them) give higher skating skills scores to a skater like Elena Sokolova or Susanna Poykio over someone like Shizuka Arakawa or Michelle Kwan, I can logically see that something is suspect.

As a further example, Shizuka's programs were loaded with transitions - without a doubt she had more than any other skater, but let's look at how the judges actually scored her in this PCS element in the SP at Worlds:
Judge 1 - Tied for seventh
Judge 2 - Tied for fourth
Judge 3 - Tied for sixth
Judge 4 - Tied for third
Judge 5 - Fourth
Judge 6 - Sixth
Judge 7 - Tied for eleventh (!)
Judge 8 - Sixth
Judge 9 - Fifth
Judge 10 - Tied for first (with four others)
Judge 11 - Tied for third
Judge 12 - Tied for ninth

Now clearly what was actually on the ice is not what was being accurately scored. Eleventh!?!??!

And the "beauty of CoP" is 'supposedly' no matter what order skaters are in, it should not make a difference. The final flight should not have scores being held for them, after all this isn't OBO anymore... though the judges seem to be manipulating the PCS to put skaters in the order they wish, and if you analyze the scores throughout the entire 2004-2005 season you will see this to be true. I think the first season of CoP (when it was just used in GP events) when they did not put skaters into flights, and it was just a blind draw for each portion the results were more accurate and balanced. Or maybe it was just because CoP was new and the judges hadn't figured out how to manipulate the results yet....

vixen - You are correct. It is just my theory of the corelation between Tech and PCS scores and your example of Shizuka does go along with what I am saying.

Shizuka has had poor Tech performance since Dortmund and despite her compliance with the PCS sections, she does not get the PCS scores she deserves. And with or without my theory, PCS scores are extremely subjective.

Remember, in the Tech portion of the competition, each element is given a GOE. If the judge is giving out lots of +2s and 3s for a particular skater, you can bet that skater will get High Performance scores from that judge, and musicality, flow, posture, mif, etc., be damned. (Just my theory)

Let's pay attention to this this year. I hope I am wrong.

Joe

Irina had a sloppy FS at '05 Euros and got high PCS scores anyway. Her SP at '05 Worlds had two notable mistakes and despite that, she won the SP with VERY high PCS scores. Elena Sokolova is no technical wonder, and in the Worlds '05 SP, three judges in the SP gave Elena higher PCS scores than Kwan. In fact, one judge had Elena and Carolina tied for first in PCS!

I guess with PCS it depends which skaters are in favor with the judges at the moment.

euterpe said:

Irina had a sloppy FS at '05 Euros and got high PCS scores anyway. Her SP at '05 Worlds had two notable mistakes and despite that, she won the SP with VERY high PCS scores. Elena Sokolova is no technical wonder, and in the Worlds '05 SP, three judges in the SP gave Elena higher PCS scores than Kwan. In fact, one judge had Elena and Carolina tied for first in PCS!
I guess with PCS it depends which skaters are in favor with the judges at the moment.

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Quick change it up, your becoming repetitive. :agree:

euterpe said:

I guess with PCS it depends which skaters are in favor with the judges at the moment.

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To me, this is kind of a tricky point. Skating is a judged sport. You have to let the judges judge.

At the end of the day, after the tech specialist has counted the revolutions of each jump and the computer has tallied the trimmed mean, it is still the responsibility of the judges to decide who they thought skated the best.

Otherwise, why go through the farce of having them sit up there in the first place?

Mathman

I'm not sure what you mean by 'rankings'. Michelle Kwan is way down in the rankings under any system. Check the ISU ranking system. This news should make you happy.

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Personally, I don't put much stock in those rankings. I believe they're heavily biased towards the skaters who do the GP (since results there count towards the total). And since Kwan hasn't done it in three years that's why she's way down. But I will go by the world rankings and say she's roughly number four in the world right now. She could still rebound.

Mathman said:

To me, this is kind of a tricky point. Skating is a judged sport. You have to let the judges judge. Mathman

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Yes, but I don't have to dance to their tune.

IMO, there are three kinds of judges: 1. Biased; 2. Inept; 3. Honest. I'll dance to the honest one.

Joe

And unfortunately, I think those honest judges are being overshadowed by the dishonest ones. If you have even ONE dishonest judge on a judging panel it can affect the results. There is hardly any "majority rules" here. And this is why it's so hard...I don't know what the ISU's deal is. Why they don't get tough with dishonest judges is just beyond me. (Or not? Maybe they have a set agenda already.)

Red Dog said:

I don't know what the ISU's deal is. Why they don't get tough with dishonest judges is just beyond me. (Or not? Maybe they have a set agenda already.)

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I think the deal with the ISU is simply that it is a political organization. So we should not be surprised to find it dominated by politics.

The same is true of the International Olympic Committee. Every year there are charges that the sites for future games are given simply to the city that offers the biggest bribes to council members. There were several rounds of criminal charges brought in U.S. courts against Salt Lake City boosters, for instance. And the executive director of the USOC resigned in disgrace a couple of years ago for awarding big contracts to his family and pals (sort of like President Bush appointing Michael Brown to be director of FEMA just because Brown was the college roommate of a big-time politico -- except for the part about Bush resigning in disgrace).

I think this is part of the reason why the whole Olympic movement -- not just figure skating -- is gradually slipping away. People want sport, not politics. All those years when the IOC was saying,"amature good, professional bad," they should have been saying, "sports good, global political agendas and national Chauvinism, bad.)

JMO

Mathman

(Quote=Soogar: "For the Olympics, there will be a changing of the guard. Here is my final pick for the ladies' podium (not in any particular order): Carolina, Miki and Emily...

"If I get this entire podium pick right, I'm going to have a thread entitled PROPS TO SOOGAR after the Olympics. " -- /quote)

I think history is not on your side. At the Olympics, the judging almost always comes down on the side of the favorites, one way or another. The "changing of the guard" comes afterwards.

In 1998 the favorites were Tara and Michelle. They finished one-two.

In 1994 the favorites were Oksana and Nancy. They finished one-two.

In 1992 the favorites were Kristi and Midori. They finished one-two.

In 1988 the favorites were Katarina and Debbie. They finished one-three when Liz Manley snuck in there with a skate-of-a-lifetime as the leaders (especially Debbie) did not skate their best.

In 1884 the favorites were Katarina and Rosalynn. They finished one-two.

In 2002, the favorites were Irina and Michelle. They finished two-three when Sarah Hughes snuck in with a skate-of-a-lifetime and both Michelle and Irina messed up big time (but not big-time enough for the judges to leave them off the podium). The only "changing of the guard" that happened that year was that the youngster Sarah decided not to continue.

Anything can happen, but frankly I am not expecting anything earth-shattering in Torino. Can I have a thread named after me if the podium is Irina, Michelle and Sasha?

Mathman

Mathman said:

Anything can happen, but frankly I am not expecting anything earth-shattering in Torino. Can I have a thread named after me if the podium is Irina, Michelle and Sasha?

Mathman

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Where is the Japanese lady? lol.

mzheng said:

Where is the Japanese lady? lol.

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Go Fumie!

Mathman said:

Go Fumie!

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Go Shizuka!

Mathman said:

(
Anything can happen, but frankly I am not expecting anything earth-shattering in Torino. Can I have a thread named after me if the podium is Irina, Michelle and Sasha?

Mathman

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No because your picks are the same as the majority's picks !


I'm predicting a junior skater to make the US team and make the podium and she's not Kimmie Meissner.

Unlike the past Olympics, you have a brand new scoring system to deal with and it will be scrutinzed. There will be no holding up of a favorite if that skater does not skate well.

Fumie is pulling out of the Japan Cheesefest scheduled for Oct. 1 with a groin injury, and will probably have to pull out of Campbell's as well. Grrrrrrrrrrr!

soogar said:

There will be no holding up of a favorite if that skater does not skate well.

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Oh, how you underestimate Speedy and his pals, LOL.

Well obviously first of all I am going to say that I am thrilled that Rochette gets to compete in this event.

(Joe knows this next part was coming, I'm sure..)

As far as her scores being inflated at Canadians in the free skate, I don't really know. 123 for her ABSOLUTE best seems quite reasonable to me, seeing how a 4-triple Kwan scores a 113 (with maybe her worst LP effort ever in terms of the whole program, and even a few level 1 elements), and even a what, 5 triple Kostner scored that. Slutskaya only got credit for 6 jumping passes at Worlds and she scored 130. Imagine if the 3rd 3loop had counted. The funny thing about Rochette's scores internationally was how the judges warmed up to her as the season went on. At Cup of China she had something like 102 points for a 6-triple free skate (and just a note-- when she went back for the GPF, she had a mediocre skate and scored the same pretty much), and then just a week later she again did 6 triples and managed 11 or so points higher in France. So it was a case of her not being a big enough name in China but when she ran away with the competition in France, they more-or-less had to give her the marks IMO.

I know a lot of people agree that building your reputation up is a must in the code of points when it comes to the components marks, as sometimes it seems skaters are judged on past performance rather than what they are putting out on the given day. Miki Ando skated two very shaky free skates at Worlds, more insecure than I have ever seen her, and somehow her components marks went up quite significantly as opposed to what she was mostly getting earlier in the year. Sokolova, as well.

Rochette didn't put a foot wrong in her Nationals free skate. You can't deny the secureness of her skating when it's on, and even though her LP was kinda spotty choreographically, she still interpreted it well and at least offered some moves in the field.

ETA- Joannie had success prior to last year. She was 8th in the World in 2004 and did 6 triples in that and her Nationals free skate, and remember after her disasterous GP debut in Canada in 2003, she went on to beat Poykio, Sebestyen, and Kostner a week later in Germany. She really hasn't come out of no where, she just had one bad skate when it really counted the most.