Can anybody break up the Slutskaya/Kwan/Cohen trio in Turin?

Even though Kostner was a shock World bronze medalist last year, and will be entering the Olympics in her home country, and Arakawa was World Champion only 19 months ago, I somewhat feel it is almost a certainty the Kwan, Cohen, Slutskaya trio will be your Olympic medalists next year in some order. Slutskaya obviously goes in as gold medal favorite after last year, and while anything less than her best, and an inspired Cohen or a Kwan having solved the COP could deprive her the gold medal(assuming she isnt held up because of her years last year) it is hard to see her being bumped off the podium altogether. Cohen has won silver at the last two Worlds, and I cant see any of the Japanese, Kostner, or other Russians coming too close to beating her right now, she will definitely be shooting for gold, but a silly mistake or two will probably cost her the gold again, but she has too many skills, and now can be counted on to limit her errors enough in big events I cant see her not medaling. Kwan if she continues, and she has stated she will, and is pretty much gauranteed to compete this year even with her latest withdrawals, would not come back without a reasonable grasp of the COP, and in that case I cant imagine anybody other than Slutskaya or Cohen perhaps having a chance to beat her. So I feel it is almost a foregone conclusion this trio will compose the podium in Turin, the only question is in what order. What do you guys think?

I really hope Carolina will be able to stir up something big there.... She does have something special in her, and I wish her the best but she also needs to have some nerve of steel in front of the home crowd...

I wouldn't count Arakawa out yet. As of now Caro is the major spoiler which is not a bad place to be. It was wear Sarah was for 2002 and Shizuka for 2004 Worlds.

Kostner can, if she can hold her nerves together (which, in and of itself, is a big "if"). Arakawa seems to be on the "comeback" trail. Kwan's injury also might be a factor -- not only because it will impact the amount of CoP experience she can get, but because it also might impact what jumps she may (or may not) be able to land.

Do you forget Shizuka Arakawa?
And more dark horses.

I seem to be in a minority, but other than a few exceptional (yet inconsistent) jump combinations I don't think Carolina has the goods. Not yet anyway. Worlds could have been a fluke, and I do not see her on the Olympic podium.

Well, They are the trio to beat


I think those three have the best chance to stand on the podium im Turin

The obvious choices are Shuzuka Arakawa, Miki Ando, and Carolina Kostner. Ando has a gorgeous new program by David Wilson. She looks like a different girl. Arakawa looked great at the Japan Invitational event last weekend, but she needs to get the full rotation on the 3/3's. (Her 3Lu/3T attempt was downgraded.) Kostner lost five months off the ice last year with a back injury, and still pulled off a wonderful Kurt Browning program in Moscow. With a full year, she has a fighting chance, especially without the qualifying round in the Olympics. Kostner is an excellent SP skater; her SP's should have been top two in the last two Worlds, in my opinion. She needs to get the stamina to complete the last 1.5 minutes of the LP, the bane of her last three seasons.

I think it would be a very long shot for Sebestyen, Suguri, or Rochette to be on the podium, because I don't think more than one of them has a good chance to end up in the final six without help from the front runners.

ITA with the thought that Michelle, Irina, and Sasha will make up the final podium at Turin... with Diva being the possible spoiler.

What I'm interested in seeing, however, is if the top three earn their spots based on merit or fear from the ISU that the new judging system & its inherent issues to viewers/media who cry foul about everything they don't understand will influence the final podium... this will be espcially true with the ladies and also if Russia sweeps the top spots (a good possiblity) with the three other diciplines... I truly believe that any of the top skaters deserve to make the podium, as long as they skate full-out... but I'm not blinded to the reality that is figure skating & its strange business practices... Just my opinion...

Kwanford Wife said:

ITA with the thought that Michelle, Irina, and Sasha will make up the final podium at Turin... with Diva being the possible spoiler.

What I'm interested in seeing, however, is if the top three earn their spots based on merit or fear from the ISU that the new judging system & its inherent issues to viewers/media who cry foul about everything they don't understand will influence the final podium... this will be espcially true with the ladies and also if Russia sweeps the top spots (a good possiblity) with the three other diciplines... I truly believe that any of the top skaters deserve to make the podium, as long as they skate full-out... but I'm not blinded to the reality that is figure skating & its strange business practices... Just my opinion...

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In addition to Shizuka, I think Carolina (especially if her competitive program presentation improvements mirror her Torino Gala Ex presentation), Fumie (if she skates like 4CC last year), Miki (if she jumps like she can, and others falter, while keeping her presentation improvements I thought I saw at Japan Invitational), and more could be dark horses for the Olys.

Question for you. Did the public really understand the 6.0 system? As a fan, I often found myself scratching my head.

Who decides (you?) whether the podium finishers gave "full-out" performances? Is that defined by difficulty of elements performed with excellece? Difficulty of elements performed with mediocrity compared to easier elements performed better (however that might be defined)? A "clean" 45 point technical program compared to a "less than clean" 58 point technical program?

I like COP because it sure makes more sense to me than 6.0 ever did.

DG

Removing double post - how the heck did that happen??

As I always say, it may seem likely right NOW that Slutskaya/Kwan/Cohen are the ones to beat, and have a tight grip on the podium spot. But allow me to highlight a pattern that I've observed for the past four years and that I think has been largely overlooked when discussing Olympic hopefuls.

1) Notice that in the Worlds, from every year up from 2002 to 2005, there has been one "surprise" podium finisher, that is, one outside the circle of what we call "top skaters". And in one of those four years, that surprise finisher occupied the top spot. Let me lay it out:

2005: Carolina (3rd)
2004: Shizuka (1st)
2003: Elena (2nd)
2002: Fumie (3rd)

Is there no reason at all to think, at all, that in 2006 we will have at least ONE "surprise podium finisher", i.e. someone that is NOT Slutskaya, Kwan, or Cohen? (Or even Arakawa?) So my answer to the question posed in this thread is a resounding YES, I believe someone CAN, and if history holds, WILL, break up the Slutskaya/Kwan/Cohen trio. It has happened the past four years. What's stopping it from happening again? With the Cop now in play, it is now easier than ever to climb up the rankings in an event. We could have more surprising and bizarre results now than ever before.

Once again, IMO, it's far too early to be making any predictions. RIght now, it looks like Irina will win. But after a few GPs, will that still be the case? After the short at the Olympics, will that still be the case? A LP struggle or meltdown isn't out of the question for any of your top contenders, Slutskaya and Arakawa included. And since it is the Olympics, the room for error suddenly grows as vast as the Grand Canyon.

In addition to the predictions, there are those who have favorites that they are pushing for to get to the top. Kwan is a good example- she hasn't won an international competition in some time, yet she's still being promoted as a top contender for gold. She really is the sentimental favorite here- people want her to win. Of course, she's not totally out of it mathematically speaking, but anyone who thinks her chances of winning are as high as they were in past years really need to stop and think about the level her competition has reached.

P.S. off topic- to those who understand the Cop better than the 6.0- anyone care to explain it to me or point me to a comprehensive, yet concise resource for info about it?

Doggygirl said:

Question for you. Did the public really understand the 6.0 system? As a fan, I often found myself scratching my head.

Who decides (you?) whether the podium finishers gave "full-out" performances? Is that defined by difficulty of elements performed with excellece? Difficulty of elements performed with mediocrity compared to easier elements performed better (however that might be defined)? A "clean" 45 point technical program compared to a "less than clean" 58 point technical program?

I like COP because it sure makes more sense to me than 6.0 ever did.

DG

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I'm not sure if the public really understood the 6.0 system... But they did seem to understand that S/P gave a clean, technically proficient program with emotion & heart vs. B/what's his name... can't remeber... who gave a somewhat flawed program that was high on tech. difficulty but lacked the "oofph" of Love Story.

As for who decides skates full-out, no, that is not decided by me (although it should be) It is decided by the judges. And yes, I do hope that it's decided by a marriage of technical difficulty, artistic presentation, and is CLEAN... Without Error... that's what I like to see... (gaining points should not ignore that fact) If its marred in error, then it is an attempt at a 58 point program, not a 58 point program... (but that's my own personal issue with CoP...)

We can go back & forth all day about the CoP vs. 6.0... both have benefits and challenges, but what I'd like to point out about my original post is that I'm more concerned about the politics of scoring vs. the technical atributes of this "easier" 45 point vs. that messy 62 point program.

These skaters are world class athletes in a sport that has very little room at the top and should be given the repect of fair judging.

This sport, however, has a shady past of dirty tricks, political scoring, block judging and questionable practices. Do you really believe that CoP is going to fix that? If so, then I hope you're right because all the "objective" scoring criteria in the world won't help skating if there is drama in Italy.

Red Dog said:

P.S. off topic- to those who understand the Cop better than the 6.0- anyone care to explain it to me or point me to a comprehensive, yet concise resource for info about it?

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While I don't consider myself an NJS (COP) expert by any stretch, I learned what I know about it, and I'm sure most people who know more than average about it, learned it by studying it at www.isu.org. And pulling up judges score sheets over the last two seasons and watching performance re-runs with the score sheets in hand.

I don't think a deep understanding of NJS is any more necessary to appreciate lovely FS performances than it was under 6.0. I enjoy watching gymnatics (as an example) but can't say that I understand the relatively new system any more or less than I really understood the old "10.0" system and what it took to win under that. (I don't know all the technical rules of football, baseball, soccer, hockey, tennis, golf, poker, curling, luge or tiddly winks either, but occassionally watch and enjoy - especially during an Oly season like you claim to watch FS).

Seriously - whatever I know about it, I mainly learned by studying the rules, looking at score sheets relative to performances, and then asking questions of people who know a whole lot more about FS than I do. I'm glad I took the time to do that - for me anyway, I get more enjoyment out of watching FS comps, since I love it and will watch them anyway.

Happy studying..

DG

Of course that trio can be broken. I'll sum it up in one word: JAPAN

Frau Muller said:

Of course that trio can be broken. I'll sum it up in one word: JAPAN

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Gotta love a one word answer, especially when it's a GOOD answer! I should take a big lesson from that.

DG

I didn't know all that much about the 6.0 system, but I did know this: When a skater skates perfectly, she gets a 6.0. This is in a perfect world, of course, and as we all know there is no such thing. Lots of skaters who didn't deserve 6.0s got one, and vice versa.

I'm aware that you don't need to know all the technical rules of a sport or entity to enjoy it. But learning more about basketball, football, and later, baseball, help me gain a deeper understanding and appreciation for those sports. I continue to watch the basketball and football pro leagues.

The part of skating I like is the competition element (like I've said 10,000 times before, but I'll say it again for the 10,001st time), and as a fan of Olympic sports that's what mainly keeps me watching. Over time, I tried to look past that and to the skating part of it. There is no way I'll ever know what jump is what (except the axel) or decipher this complex number system that they call the Cop, but it's all good right? I still watch it. When this competition element starts waning, that's when I will stop following skating for good. And with all the good skaters leaving next year (most likely), it sounds as if it's fast approaching. (No, unfortunately I haven't had time to watch the up-and-comers. But if I find time (and videos) I'll see if I can.)

In fact, I already feel I have a deeper understanding of figure skating by just coming here, learning about it, asking questions, and participating in discussion. It's all a learning process. The way you learn is not to get intimidated by people who tell you that you don't know anything. You go out there and you seek it.

Frau Muller said:

JAPAN

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YES.

Quite possible. If you think of SLC, I believe it could repeat.

The Americans gave Sarah a resounding applause during and after her LP. She set the standard for Kwan, Slutskaya and Cohen. None of them could even match it, imo and a majority of the judges.

The Italians will give Carolina a resounding applause before, during and if it goes well, a thunderous one after the LP. Many western Europeans will join in the applause. She's more than a dark horse.

From the tape I saw of Shizuka in the Japanese cheesefest, I would have to add her name to the title of this topic and a definite one to knock off one of the topic names from the podium.

I think, and I am crying, that Michelle will have a tough time for the podium. She'll give it her best but I think the lack of practice is going to hurt.

Sasha, imo, is the one to move ahead. She's not that far behind Irina and that without a 3x3 and a bielman. What if they were in Moscow??? Think about it.

Irina has the best tech by far of all the contestants, without, imo, adequate presentation. How much the judges confuse the GOE scores with the PCS scores will be a factor in her quest for gold.

I see Miki and Joannie waiting in the wings for a melt down of the above. It could happen.

Fumie, Susanna, may be lagging behind the group, but hey not out. Julia? lots of dout.

So much, imo, depends on how they have improved after the Worlds in 2005 and we will get some ideas during the GPs.

Joe

Red Dog said:

I didn't know all that much about the 6.0 system, but I did know this: When a skater skates perfectly, she gets a 6.0. This is in a perfect world, of course, and as we all know there is no such thing. Lots of skaters who didn't deserve 6.0s got one, and vice versa.

I'm aware that you don't need to know all the technical rules of a sport or entity to enjoy it. But learning more about basketball, football, and later, baseball, help me gain a deeper understanding and appreciation for those sports. I continue to watch the basketball and football pro leagues.

The part of skating I like is the competition element (like I've said 10,000 times before, but I'll say it again for the 10,001st time), and as a fan of Olympic sports that's what mainly keeps me watching. Over time, I tried to look past that and to the skating part of it. There is no way I'll ever know what jump is what (except the axel) or decipher this complex number system that they call the Cop, but it's all good right? I still watch it. When this competition element starts waning, that's when I will stop following skating for good. And with all the good skaters leaving next year (most likely), it sounds as if it's fast approaching. (No, unfortunately I haven't had time to watch the up-and-comers. But if I find time (and videos) I'll see if I can.)

In fact, I already feel I have a deeper understanding of figure skating by just coming here, learning about it, asking questions, and participating in discussion. It's all a learning process. The way you learn is not to get intimidated by people who tell you that you don't know anything. You go out there and you seek it.

Click to expand...

You asked where to learn the details of NJS (COP) and I gave you a suggestion. I realize my response was probably WAY too long, and therefore probably confusing. It's all there at www.isu.org.

The biggest misunderstanding about the 6.0 system IMO, is just what you said - that it represents a "perfect" skate - but was sometimes given out unfairly for a NOT perfect skate. In reality, under the 6.0 system the numbers in and of themselves meant absolutely nothing beyond the judge's opinion about one skater relative to another, in two very broad categories of tech and presentation. While seemingly simple on the surface (hence, easy to understand for the public), IMO that system made no sense at all when you consider the complexity / difficulty of the individual elements, and programs as a whole that these skaters perform.

DG