Predictions - Who will make GPF

Well, 1/3 of the GP Series is already over. And several withdrawls are already known. So who do we think will make the GPF in each dicipline??

DG

Here are my predictions:

Men:

Emanuel Sandhu
Jeffrey Buttle
Stephane Lambiel
Nobunari Oda
Evan Lysacek
Daisuke Takahashi

Ladies:

Irina Slutskaya
Alissa Czisny
Joannie Rochette
Mao Asada
Shizuka Arakawa
Elena Sokolova

Pairs:

Petrova/Tikhanov
Zhang/Zhang
Pang/Tong
Inoue/Baldwin
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Marcoux/Buntin

Ice Dancing:

Navka/Kostomarov
Belbin/Agosto
Dubreuil/Lauzon
Chait/Sakhnovski
Delobel/Scheonfelder
Grushina/Goncharov

I agree with you on all those predictions, but I AM scared for Joannie in the Tropee de Eric Bombard Cachemire (sp?). It's gonna be some stiff competition in the ladies department!

Possible Spoilers... Ladies and Men

I think the CDMM predictions are solid. So I looked at the picture from a different perspective - possible spoilers at this point. (Ladies and Men)

Ladies:

Most likely to spoil - Ando who has COR and NHK coming up.
Less likely to spoil - but could happen - Meissner (TEB, NHK) and Volchkova (COR, NHK)

Men:

Most likely to spoil - Lindemann (COR, NHK)
Less likely to spoil - Dambier (TES, COR)

All of this just IMO, of course. It's been a really fun season so far - can't wait for it to further unfold!!

DG

Doggygirl said:

I think the CDMM predictions are solid. So I looked at the picture from a different perspective - possible spoilers at this point. (Ladies and Men)

Ladies:

Most likely to spoil - Ando who has COR and NHK coming up.
Less likely to spoil - but could happen - Meissner (TEB, NHK) and Volchkova (COR, NHK)

Men:

Most likely to spoil - Lindemann (COR, NHK)
Less likely to spoil - Dambier (TES, COR)

All of this just IMO, of course. It's been a really fun season so far - can't wait for it to further unfold!!

DG

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Hmmmm additional spoilers for me would be:

Onda, Nakano, and less likely Liashenko all who have NHK to come, and have 7,7, and 5 points so far respectively.

Honda, and Van Der Perren, both with 5 points so far, and NHK to come.

Zagorska and Siudek have 7 points and Russia to come, as do Obertas and Slavnov. Putnam and Wirtz have 5, and Russia to come, but will have to face an extremely strong pairs field there, and are not very likely to medal.

Domnina/Shabalin, and Gregory/Petukhov both have 7 points and Russia to go. Potential to upset there, and will be fighting for the bronze behind Chait/Saknovski and Navka/Kostomarov.

Weir is the first to fall. I think Fumie, too.

Pairs and Ice Dance seem to be locked in.

PAIRS
Confirmed:
Totmianina/Marinin 24
Petrova/Tikhonov 21
Pang/Tong 18
Obertas/Slavnov 16
Projected, NHK:
Zhang/Zhang 21 or 24
Savchenko/Szolkowy 21 or 24
Alternates:
Inoue/Baldwin 14, best finish 2nd
Marcoux/Buntin 14, best finish 3rd, 333.82 points
Zagorska/Siudek 14, best finish 3rd, 324.22 points

ICE DANCE
Confirmed:
Navka/Kostomarov 24
Grushina/Goncharov 21
Chait/Sakhnovski 18
Delobel/Schoenfelder 16
Domnina/Shabalin 14
Projected, NHK:
Dubreuil/Lauzon: 24 or 21
Alternates:
Belbin/Agosto, 12, best finish 1st, 190.45 points
Denkova/Staviiski (if they win at NHK), 12, best finish 1st, x points
Gregory/Pethukov 12, best finish 3rd, 323.95 points
Wing/Lowe 12, best finish 3rd, 322.67 points

LADIES is a bit up in the air, pending NHK results
Confirmed:
Irina Slutskaya 24
Mao Asada 21
Alissa Czisny 21
Sokolova 15
On the bubble:
Joannie Rochette, 14, best finish 2nd, 325.25 points
Shizuka Arakawa, 14, best finish 3rd, 346.90 points
Yoshie Onda, 14, best finish 3rd, 293.38 points
Projected, NHK:
Miki Ando - 21-16 points

After Miki, there are 3 possible spoilers:
Yukari Nakano, 7 points; a win or 2nd would give her a ticket to the GPF
Elena Liashenko, 5 points, a win or a silver medal with 164.83 points would give her a ticket to the GPF. Note: don't sell this lady short. She skated against a tough field at NHK and 4th in that field was an accomplishment. Her FS to "West Side Story" is terrific, and she is very popular in Japan.
Kimmie Meissner, 4 points: only a win would give her a ticket to the GPF.

A really weird result would be
1 Meissner 16
2 Nakano 16
3 Ando 16
which would push Sokolova down to 1st alternate

But it is more likely that Ando will win this event, as she skated very strongly at CoR and she always skates well at home in Japan. Liashenko, Nakano and Meissner will all be fighting for the other medals.

MEN
Confirmed:
Sandhu 24
Buttle 21
Lambiel 18
Joubert 16
Projected, NHK:
Takahashi, 12 - needs to finish 5th or better to assure a spot
Lysacek, 9 - needs to finish 3rd or better to assure a spot
I would expect Takahashi and Lysacek to qualify for the last two spots.

Potential Spoilers:
Oda, 7 points - needs to finish 1st or 2nd to assure a spot
Lindemann, Honda, Ferreira, Van Der Perren, 5 points - need a win

CDMM1991 said:

Hmmmm additional spoilers for me would be:

Onda, Nakano, and less likely Liashenko all who have NHK to come, and have 7,7, and 5 points so far respectively.

Honda, and Van Der Perren, both with 5 points so far, and NHK to come.

Zagorska and Siudek have 7 points and Russia to come, as do Obertas and Slavnov. Putnam and Wirtz have 5, and Russia to come, but will have to face an extremely strong pairs field there, and are not very likely to medal.

Domnina/Shabalin, and Gregory/Petukhov both have 7 points and Russia to go. Potential to upset there, and will be fighting for the bronze behind Chait/Saknovski and Navka/Kostomarov.

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CDmm - Your original predictions plus your additional spoilers could cover the entire ground of competitors. Your predictions will come true one way or another. That good betting.

Joe

If Oda wins the silver at NHK, and Lysacek wins the bronze, then all three of Joubert, Oda, and Lysacek will have 16 points, and a 2nd and 3rd place finish each. Which two would qualify for the GP final?

slutskayafan21 said:

If Oda wins the silver at NHK, and Lysacek wins the bronze, then all three of Joubert, Oda, and Lysacek will have 16 points, and a 2nd and 3rd place finish each. Which two would qualify for the GP final?

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I believe the tie breaker after "highest placement" is total COP points earned at the events.

Joe, I think the speculations put forth about additional possible outcomes just goes to show how many spots really could be up in the air with only one event to go. (even though some of these possibilities aren't real likely)

DG

Doggygirl said:

I believe the tie breaker after "highest placement" is total COP points earned at the events.

Joe, I think the speculations put forth about additional possible outcomes just goes to show how many spots really could be up in the air with only one event to go. (even though some of these possibilities aren't real likely)

DG

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Well in that case I think there is a good chance Lysacek could not make by finishing 3rd since I am predicting a finish like this: 1)Takahashi, 2)Oda, 3)
Lysacek. I am expecting Lysacek not to score as well as Joubert did at Eric Bombard, and since he barely beat Joubert at Skate America to fall behind him in total COP points. In fact I could see Honda bumping Lysacek to 4th at NHK if he skates like he did at Skate Canada.

CDMM1991 said:

Here are my predictions:

Pairs:

Petrova/Tikhanov
Zhang/Zhang
Pang/Tong
Inoue/Baldwin
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Marcoux/Buntin

Ice Dancing:

Navka/Kostomarov
Belbin/Agosto
Dubreuil/Lauzon
Chait/Sakhnovski
Delobel/Scheonfelder
Grushina/Goncharov

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Sorry but I couldnt help but notice, no Totmianina/Marinin in the GP final for pairs.
It would be a nice thought for some perhaps, but about as likely as Tonya Harding winning the Mrs. Universe Pageant.

As far as Lysacek and Oda at NHK:

Lysacek scored 67.75 SP and 125.96 at Skate America for a total of 193.71
Oda scored 59.84 SP and 133.24 FS at Skate Canada for a total of 193.08

Lysacek scored better than Oda in the SP in their respective first events,
and Oda significantly outscored Lysacek in the FS. But Lysacek has dropped his awful "Grease" program and the new program to "Carmen" should score higher---if he is ready with it.

In ISU points, Lysacek has 9 and Oda has 7.
For Oda to push Lysacek out of the final, he has to beat him pointwise, which means he has to finish ahead of him at NHK by at least 0.64 points.

Lysacek has a pretty good PCS edge on Oda. Oda's scores in the SP were 5.6-6.05, and 6.0-6.35 in the FS. Lysacek's scores were in the mid to upper 6's, which gives him a 0.5 advantage across the board.

I dont agree Lysacek's new program will score significantly higher, his PCS scores with his Grease program, or what I would expect from him. I think you will see the same scores more or less. He will not score up with the likes of Buttle, Sandhu, Lambiel, and Weir in PCS scores, mark my words! If I am wrong feel free to remind me, but I dont see it.

I do agree he will probably beat Oda on PCS scores though. He would have with his old program though, so no change there. It depends alot on if Oda can hit his quads I guess.

How strangely NHK turned out.

Lysacek's new "Carmen" program is a success and he skated cleanly to score a new personal best 142.50 points to win the FS.

Yet Oda, who fell in his FS, scored almost as high and won NHK since he outscored Lysacek by 3 points in the SP.

But all three NHK medalwinners (Oda, Lysacek and Takahashi) made the GPF with 19, 18 and 19 points, respectively, and pushed Joubert's 16 points down to first alternate.

Even more remarkable, Johnny Weir was the third alternate for the GPF with 9 points.

chuckm said:

Even more remarkable, Johnny Weir was the third alternate for the GPF with 9 points.

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I wonder what would happen if it came down to second alternate Plushenko. Would the ISU try to pressure him to go?

Mathman said:

I wonder what would happen if it came down to second alternate Plushenko. Would the ISU try to pressure him to go?

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If what Plush said in his interview today is true - then My Bet is that the ISU would not have to pressure him at all. I think he would willingly go put an exclamation point on things if given the opportunity. That's just my guess, but that's what I think about Plush's competitive state right now!

DG