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Thread: Predictions

  1. #16
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    I'm not so sure Rochette can win a medal of any color at TEB. She scored 158 in Canada, 5 points less than Elena Sokolova scored in Skate America, and 15-17 points less than two of her TEB opponents scored at CoC. And Joannie skated well at Skate Canada!

    The problem is Joannie doesn't get much respect from the judges---they continue to give her lowish PCS scores (mid 6s). She has no cushion, so any small mistake could keep her off the podium.

  2. #17
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by euterpe
    The problem is Joannie doesn't get much respect from the judges---they continue to give her lowish PCS scores (mid 6s). She has no cushion, so any small mistake could keep her off the podium.
    I agree. Joannie is a robust skater, not a delicate little flower. Her program component scores should mirror her technical scores, but she won't get a break in PCS without a clean and impressive tech showing.

    MM

  3. #18
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    I agree. Joannie is a robust skater, not a delicate little flower. Her program component scores should mirror her technical scores, but she won't get a break in PCS without a clean and impressive tech showing.

    MM
    I've been trying to put my finger on the reasons that maybe Joannie isn't rising through the ranks like it seems she should be. She's IMO a really solid overall skater. I'm starting to think that maybe it's just that - being a solid all around skater - that might hurt her the most. Maybe there isn't some One Thing that really stands out. Like for Kimmie, it was the 3A and other jumps. That's true to an even greater degree for Mao. For Alissa (especially this season so far) it's her spins, and IMO a better Biellman than other current skaters (i.e. Irina). For Shiz it's her smooth flow. For Sasha it's flexibility affording her some incredible moves. For Irina it's high jumps and power. For MK it's musicality and audience connection.

    Don't get me wrong - I think "podium" requires good all around skating. As an example, I think Alissa has had some "wow" spinning before. But jump problems held her out of the lime light. I'm just trying to answer the question "Joannie is really SUPER at __________"

    I could be all wrong about this. I'm just thinking that capturing the full attention of the international judging crowd might take some one "standout" area in addition to being well rounded (or at least "good enough" in all key areas) in general.

    Neither her SP nor LP were "standouts" for me so far this year, which was disappointing because I like her skating. Firebird from last year gave me hope that this year could be her breakout. It hasn't done that for me so far....

    Thoughts?

  4. #19
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    I almost feel bad making predictions since I'm the kiss of death to skaters... But too bad for them! Here we go!

    Ladies
    DivaKwara
    Sasha
    Joanine (Only because I think the judges are going to hold Mao back a bit, mainly because she can't compete at the Olympics)


    Men

    Joubert
    Goebel / Weiss (I just feel a bit of a twist here...)
    Buttle

  5. #20
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Well, Sarah won the O's with a similar resume to Joannie Rochette-and did it by landing all her tricks. That's probably what Joannie needs to do here. Unfortunately, despite the enthusiasm of many, I don't get the 'all that' about Joannie, except that she is unusual as a solid Canadian lady skater. Third is going to be a stretch for her. I loved Shizuka's COC skate-miles ahead of Joannie's SC.

    I like too many of the skaters at this event to predict anything, except that T&M will be first in Pairs, P&T second; and Delobel & Schoenfelder will be first in dance, G&G second, I'd like the Mat/Zavs to be 3rd-perhaps F&S will still be too flustered to do well.

  6. #21
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    I almost feel bad making predictions since I'm the kiss of death to skaters
    Well then, there goes Arakawa's chances of winning :sheesh:

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    Well then, there goes Arakawa's chances of winning :sheesh:
    Hmmm, good point... So sorry Diva!!! Maybe that's what's wrong with her season so far, huh?

  8. #23
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    Mao, Olympic eligibility or not, was not held back one iota at CoC. She couldn't catch Irina in the FS because Mao didn't do her 3A or 3/3s, but she did hand in a top performance. Mao may not win gold at TEB, but I do expect to see her on the podium because even with mistakes, her TES scores are very high.

    Shizuka is very mindful of the race for an Olympic spot, and she will want to improve on her CoC effort. Shizuka always gets at least mid-7s on her PCS scores (to Mao's mid-6s), and that will stand her in good stead.

    Then there is Elena, who has her problems with stroking, but she is capable of selling her programs with her sparkling personality, and she is in good competition shape this season so far.

    Joannie is a good, strong skater, but she comes across as rather bland and colorless. She has a good choreographer, but the skater has to sell the program, and Joannie just doesn't seem to know how to do that. The elevator muzak selections she picked for her SP and FS don't help her and won't impress the judges.

  9. #24
    Custom User Title CDMM1991's Avatar
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    I am a huge Joannie fan, and think she is definitely something special; I just don't know what it is yet. But, I too, am very disappointed with her music selections this year. Last year Firebird was a Firebird that we have never seen before, despite the common music. It was unique, quirky, and she pulled it off. And that coupled with a great short program, were a great combination, and she got credit for that program (the LP) where it was due. All of her placings, besides maybe behind Shiz at GPF were fairly accurate. Her worlds program was a meltdown, and she deserved the scores she got there.

    This season's programs on the other hand, aren't anything unique. Joannie doesn't have the incredibly smooth quality, that just watching her do crossovers sends shivers down or spine, so she does need different choreography than a lot of other skaters. She needs choreography that isn't all about the soft, smooth glides, and musicality. She had that choreography last year, and I had the feeling like she had nowhere to go but down. Anyways, maybe it is just early in the season, and the choreography will shine once she starts landing all the jumps, but for now, as a Joannie fan, I'm underwhelmed.

    CDMM

    P.S. Two beautiful costumes though, mind you I think they might be a bit too similar.

  10. #25
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    Men -

    1. Weiss (just you wait & see!!!!)
    2. Buttle
    3. Joubert

    Women -
    1. Asada
    2. Meissner
    3. Cohen [Dyrtr, if Cohen doesn't show]

    Pairs -
    1. Tot/Marinin
    2. Pang/Tong
    3. Inoue/Baldwin

    Dance -
    1. Delobel/Schoen
    2. Grush/Gonch
    3. Matthews/Zav

  11. #26
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    Women -
    1. Asada
    2. Meissner
    3. Cohen [Dyrtr, if Cohen doesn't show]
    These ought to be hopes...in fact, they'd BETTER be hopes

    Cohen in third place in this field (if she shows up)? I can't imagine that. Just like I can't imagine Irina NOT winning either the OGM or OSM next year. But this is JMO.

  12. #27
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frau Muller
    Men -

    1. Weiss (just you wait & see!!!!)

  13. #28
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    Cohen's just confirmed that she's going to TEB.

    So, she shouldn't really have too much trouble winning here (however since she is recovering from illness/injury I don't expect her to have a fabulous performance).

  14. #29
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    Her injury was very minor (a bruise and a cut) and she was back practicing triples a week after SA. She lost just about 10 days heavy practice time, that's all, and has had a month to prepare for TEB.

    Her Campbell's performance was good enough to beat Shizuka, Kimmie and Joannie, so I'd say Sasha is in good shape to romp here.

  15. #30
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    I didn't know Sasha was ill as well as suffering with the back ache.

    She should not have any problem with this competition, and she loves Paris so she'll be in a good mood to skate.

    Joe

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