I'm also glad that Evan decided to scrap his "Grease" program.....I almost fell asleep watching him skate!
I think Evan has a shot at Olympic medal. Plushenko probably already has the gold medal(unless he completely bombs), but as far the I'm concerned the silver and bronze are still up in the air. I see Joubert, Buttle, Goebel, Weir, Sandhu, Lambiel, and Takahasi/Honda(which ever one qualifies) as contenders for these medals, with Lysacek right up there with them. However, I don't see him being on the podium unless others faulter. If Goebel can get back to the form he was in several years ago I see him winning the silver medal, and I'm not even going to try to call the bronze. The field has completely opened up, probably because of the new judging system, and at this point it could be anyones game. Lysacek will need the preformance of his life though with mistakes from the above mentioned in order to have a chance, and I definitely don't think that is completely out of reach. Just look at the twists and turns this year seems to be taking...a lot of surprise winners on the GP circuit so far because of the mistakes of the top contenders.....
He did great job for 2003 and 2004. This year the two performances he attended were not that promising. Hope the new program will bring him inspiration and luck
I definitely dont agree about Goebel being a frontrunner for silver, even if he gets back to his old form. Others can kill him on the PCS scores, and the spin scores. I agree on Plushenko being pretty safe for the gold. Lambiel, Takahashi(because of his SA performance), Sandhu(because of his GP performances so far), Buttle, and if he is healthy Weir, would be the top contenders for silver and bronze at this point. Joubert has become very inconsistent and he relies on his jumps alot anyway, he and Lysacek, Goebel, Lindemann, Li, and the 2nd Russian male, would be the real long shots if the aforementioned group all really falter.
Originally Posted by *~RussianBleux~*
By the way I fully expect Takahashi to get the lone Japanese spot, even Honda's best non-quad skating didnt score very well at Skate Canada, his stature in the sport has dropped, and once he adds the quad he will become less consistent.
I also fully expect Lysacek, Weir, and Goebel to get the 3 U.S spots unless Weir does not recover from his injury.
It's all about Plushenko.
I'm not so sure about Goebel...
I see a third spot going to Weiss.
That would be odd- the same person taking the last spot on 3 consecutive Oly teams.
I wouldn't count Janke of Savoie out of the 3rd spot if they skated lights out & the others stumbled. I think Savoie would have made the 02 team under COP.
As for the Olympics- right now Takahashi might be the only one who looks close to consistent and that has to count for something. I think seeing who qualifies GPF and who medals might tell the tale. (and Plushy might qualify with 1 GP gold.)
Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
I see what you mean about Goebel, although I am still wondering where he will stand if he is consistently hitting his quads and is able to perform them at the Olympics, even with lower PCS scores.
Takahashi and Honda are both wonderful skaters and it is unfortunate that there is only one spot on the Japanese team. You don't feel that the Japanese federation will hold Honda up even without a quad because of his prior experience as a long time competitor? If not, I can see Takahashi winning the spot easily as you said.
It saddens me to see skaters end up in situations like Honda, Goebel, and even Michelle Kwan. They've each been to the Olympics at least one time before and stayed in the game to try to accomplish their Olympic goals the next time around. Unfortunately, each has faltered in recent years and none of them have been able to get back to the form they were in years ago during their first Olympic experiences. They are now easily overtaken by younger/newer skaters that are at the top of their form. Goebel got a bronze in 2002, and I remember everyone thinking that he and Plushenko would be the front runners in 2006. Now every time I see Goebel skate it's looking more and more like the OIympics are over before they have even started for him, and unless he can nail those quads(a long shot, he hasn't been hitting them)he surely will go home from Torino empty handed. The same thing for Honda. He was SO close to the podium in SLC, it's a shame that his skating has dropped off since then to the point where he is in danger of not even making the Olympic team. As for Michelle Kwan, I was extremely disappointed in 1998 when she was defeated in Nagano by Tara Lipinski. However, I was sure that the SLC gold in 2002 was hers for the taking, and was shocked when she ended up with the bronze. Now with Cohen, Slutskaya, and others on the scene and with her 4th place finish at Worlds last year, it is looking more and more like 1998 was Michelle's best chance for the Olympic gold medal that will forever elude her.
It's really too bad....
I respect Lysacek's attitude and his lack of fear about putting together a new program.
It's not sad, RussianBleux. Nothing is forever. You give it your best shot and move on.
Rob43, thanks for joining us. Post often, post long!
I see your point on Goebel being able to do 3 quads in a long program, and being extremely consistent with his other jumps, minus perhaps the triple axel, in his prime. We probably wont find out how his 3 quad performances skated cleanly will compare to the more complete but more unstable technicaly/quad able skaters like Lambiel, Buttle, Sandhu, Weir, etc..........since he probably wont put it down anyway as you said. He hasnt even approached his old form since his comeback, easier triples are very inconsistent for him now even, let alone the quads, I could see a clean short from him but not a clean long at this point.
Originally Posted by *~RussianBleux~*
You are right after 2002 it looked like he and Plushenko might have a big rivalry building until the 2006 Olympics, it certainly looked that way after the 2003 Worlds, in fact there are some who argue Goebel may have deserved either the 2002 Olympic silver or 2003 World gold(not that that is right, people tend to be partial to the underdog). Now he goes into the Olympic season in nowhere near that situation, and probably needing a miracle to get on the podium at all.
Honda also looked like he was entering the opportunity phase of his career, and he did come close to medaling in SLC after a great short, before faltering just a bit in the long and getting quaded off the podium. He looked like somebody who could challenge Plushenko and Goebel in the coming years, and won his first two World medals. He too has had terrable luck with injuries, and has been overtaken by alot of younger skaters. He no longer stands out enough, even from a couple of his younger countrymen, and it looks like his window has probably passed by.
Kwan has endured heartbreak in the Olympics before obviously, and this year looks like it will be by far her weakest chance of the 3 Olympics for gold. Slutskaya also has endured dissapointment, with not medaling in Nagano, and not winning as co-favorite with Kwan in 2002 where Hughes won, so she will have some demons to face in Turin, but unlike Kwan she looks like she is going in in the best possable place, fully mastered the COP, World Champion, perhaps the judges favortism at this point, healthy; whereas Kwan has some big time catching up to do on both Slutskaya and Cohen, and it looks like the dream may have already passed by for her. Then again who knows, anything can happen in the Olympics, at the very least I can say Kwan's chances look better than Goebel's or Honda's at this point, especialy Honda who will be lucky to even make it to Turin.
As for your theory on them giving Honda the spot because of his past experience competing near the top in major events, it wont happen IMO. The only way he gets the spot is if he clearly earns it, if anything Takahashi will get every benefit of doubt now. The Japanese have been pushing him for years, even when he was dissapointing, he was outskated many times at Nationals by others skaters, other than Honda, and has been put on the team anyway.
They will want to send who they think has the best chance to medal in Turin. After Skate America I fully expect they will think that is Takahashi, not Honda, nor Oda.
Last edited by slutskayafan21; 11-09-2005 at 11:33 PM.
I saw great performances with Daisake (SA) and Oda (SC). That Japanese National will be tough to pick one. Let's hope we see them at NHK.
Honda was sent to Worlds last year and wound up withdrawing in the QR due to still another injury to his ankle. That left just Takahashi, who finished 6th in the QR and 7th in the SP, but melted down in the FS and finished 15th overall. Japan was left with just one spot for Olympics and Worlds this year.
So both Honda and Takahashi have baggage from last season. Takahashi was impressive at Skate America, but typically in the past, he would ace one segment of a competition and bomb the other. Skate America was the first GP event where he skated well throughout.
There might even be a bit of a stigma against Honda because he lost the 2 spots with his injury... although people with long memories will realize that Honda also GOT the 2 spots in the first place.
Going back to the original psot, does Evan have enough time to learn another LP and have it down cold by the next time he competes? Thats alot of pressure for him to start over.
Thank goodness! Dump the Grease -- Best news I've heard all week. Evan is a classical guy.