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Thread: Irina Slutskaya will win in Torino

  1. #31
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    I don't think Sasha stands a chance of winning OGM. I don't think Kwan stands a chance of medaling (but there's always hope) because of her injury this year.

    Well, I would think Cohen has some chance at the OGM. It's just not looking too favorable right now. It's skaters like, say, Fumie Suguri that seem to be a lost cause, IMO.

    And I never would count Kwan completely out. OGM? That would be surreal. A Medal? Not out of the question. She could be the one to bump Cohen off the podium if she falters.

  2. #32
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    Before Michelle's injury, I thought she might give Irena a run for her money. Now we are talking a different story.

    She will probably have to relearn her triples and I think the 3/3's she was working on will be gone. Kind of like what happened to her in 98. She was working on her spins this year but I can't help but wonder if she will be able to get back into her preinjury form. Add to that she has had no competition judges feedback.

    I'm just hoping she has the skate of her life no matter what her scores are.

    I wouldn't count out Sasha. I think if they both remain on their feet, it will be Irena's OGM but if Irena falls, and Sasha doesn't, she could be the surprise winner this time. Their scores are very close.

    Ladybug

  3. #33
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    Yes, it really looks like the judges are favouring Irina. In my opinion she was robbed in her SLC short programme and lost the Olympic gold medal because of it. Maybe she is getting compensation...?

    I feel that the top skaters competing against Irina should have realized quicker this new direction (already before the 2005 Worlds) and worked to have same technical assets and used CoP to their advantage the way Irina has been doing for two seasons now. Why haven´t they? In men´s skating Buttle´s choreographer and coach have understood to benefit from the new scoring system.

    I would imagine Arakawa and Cohen being the top contenders against Irina in Turin. I hope very much that they both will forget the thought about medals and instead will fully concentrate on trying to skate their best.
    Last edited by Jaana; 11-20-2005 at 03:05 AM.

  4. #34
    Lovin' the Kween ... Now and Forever
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doggygirl
    Irina has the strongest PCS scores of the season for far, that's a fact. But where are you getting that her PCS scores are steadily going up? She had an awesome skate at World's, in particular the LP. Her total PCS for SP+LP was 96.41. COC was the first international competition since World's. She had an awesome SP, and a solid LP (IMO). Her PCS for SP+LP was 95.32. Yes, very close to her combined PCS at World's. But certainly not what I would say is "steadily going up." That looks more to me like "holding pretty steady since World's, to the best that can be assessed from one international competition since then."

    I understand the very subjective nature of fandom, and to the particular degree that judging is subjective. But Geez. Some of this stuff just goes beyond what actual facts seem to support in my opinion.

    DG
    I stand corrected Doggygirl ... I thought they had gone up.
    But ... IMO, her LP from COC was nowhere near that of her LP at Worlds ... so one could conclude that since she is getting similar PCS for a lesser program now, that they would indeed be higher if she had a LP like she did in Moscow.

    Just speculation though ... I certainly could be wrong.

  5. #35
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    I think Kwan might medal. Consider:

    (1) Reigning World Champ is from former Soviet Union, with name ending in "na" and;

    (2) Reigning Oly bronze medalist, reigning world medalist, and reigning US Nat Champ went to Worlds the year before an Olys, had worse skate of her life, finished off podium, and is now threatened by skater with triple axel and is facing a pre-Oly injury; and

    (3) US ice dance team has citizenship problems that may keep them out of Olys (with reports of a family member of a rival team asking their Congressman to "look into things")

    It is looking like a repeat of 1994. If anyone gets whacked, though, IMO, it will be $peedy who did it, trying to bring back the "big money" days.

  6. #36
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    i am sorry, attyfan, I am not following your post. Could you please explain???

    Yana

  7. #37
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    JoeSitz and Excidra

    Sorry, but since when has coming to a dead stop after a jump been "good flow?" She IS still doing it. Yes, she goes from element to element, and she tries to cover the dead stops up, but she still has poor flow out of some of her jumps and that effects the look of the jump, which SHOULD be a deduction. I think her LP is beatable because it is lackluster. Her short is very good and she shines there like she always has. But her long is about Bielmans and spins that's it.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doggygirl
    Irina has the strongest PCS scores of the season for far, that's a fact. But where are you getting that her PCS scores are steadily going up? DG
    I think some posters looked at the 8s in her scores and noted they were higher than 7s and therefore jumped to a conclusion. I believe Irina was the first skater to break the 7 barrier. I'm not sure if the 8s are in other disciplines as well.

    Will the 8 barrier be broken this season and if so, by whom? We'll be looking atg 9s as the competitions get heated. Much of it, unfortunately, subjecti vely and subliminally.

    Joe

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by STL_Blues_fan
    i am sorry, attyfan, I am not following your post. Could you please explain???

    Yana
    Right now, things are looking like a repeat of 1994. You have Irina as Oksana (Ukraine was part of former Soviet Union); and Tanith Belbin in the role formerly played by Gorsha Sur (ice dancer needing citizenship to compete in Olys), and Sur's bid for citizenship was derailed by his competitive rivals -- and it is rumored that someone tried to do the same to Tanith. Michelle IMO, so far, is in a place similar to that of Nancy Kerrigan, who was the reigning Oly bronze medalist, reigning world medalist and reigning US champ in '93, where her FS was the worst skate of her life (similar to Michelle's QR in Moscow). It was only six weeks before the Olys when Nancy was injured (the "great whack"), but she came back to have the skate of her life and earn an Oly in Lillehamer. Since there are so many similarities to 1994, and especially between Michelle and Nancy, I think that the ending for both might be the same -- the skate of their lives and an Oly medal.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by attyfan
    Right now, things are looking like a repeat of 1994. You have Irina as Oksana (Ukraine was part of former Soviet Union); and Tanith Belbin in the role formerly played by Gorsha Sur (ice dancer needing citizenship to compete in Olys), and Sur's bid for citizenship was derailed by his competitive rivals -- and it is rumored that someone tried to do the same to Tanith. Michelle IMO, so far, is in a place similar to that of Nancy Kerrigan, who was the reigning Oly bronze medalist, reigning world medalist and reigning US champ in '93, where her FS was the worst skate of her life (similar to Michelle's QR in Moscow). It was only six weeks before the Olys when Nancy was injured (the "great whack"), but she came back to have the skate of her life and earn an Oly in Lillehamer. Since there are so many similarities to 1994, and especially between Michelle and Nancy, I think that the ending for both might be the same -- the skate of their lives and an Oly medal.
    Ok, thanks for the explanation, your first observation threw me off. Irina's family name is Slutsky (either Russian or Polish), Slutskaya is a female version; whereas Bauil is an Ukranian last name which is often the same for both females and males, so there is no special ending).

    Also, I had no idea about somebody (allegedly) from the competition preventing Tanih obtaining US citizenship. Since their situation is so much more different from Renee and Gorsha - there are 3 spots on the Olympic team as opposed to a single one available in 1994, I also did not make a connection. These allegations are news to me and I do not see the logic behind. Clearly Tanith and Ben are far above their competition , so if there is a team behind the "anti-compaign" it must be a team battling for the 3rd spot or 4th. But since there is no clear team to get either bronze or pewter medal at the upcoming Nationals, they really must be sure of themselves to go and try to sabatage Belbibn's US citizenship. If it's true, then it's dispeakable (btw, I never liked Elizabeth and Jarrod after 1994).

    Anyways, thanks for the explanation. Your observations and analyses are very interesting. I guess the only difference now is that Nancy had 2 years between Olympics, the scoring system didn't change whereas Michelle has 4 years with a new scoring system. Also, those are her 3rd Olympics, so naturally she is older than Nancy.

    So we shall see.

    Yana

  11. #41
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    Question

    Michelle is 25 and in 1994 Nancy was 25. Therefore Michelle is not older regardless of this being her third Olympics.

  12. #42
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    Michelle, whose skating may be in decline, will have a lot more serious competion in Torino, than Nancy ,who was at her peak, had at the 1994 Olympics. Michelle has Irina, Sasha, Shizuka and others, while Nancy only really had Oksana and LuLu as real threats. But LuLu derailed in the SP and Tonya had self destructed with the controversy about the attack, Yuka didn't have all the jumps and the others were somehow all flawed or not yet ready for the top step on the podium.
    So in spite of the similarities, I think Michelle is going to have a much tougher climb than Nancy had.

    Also Irina needs to be careful that she doesn't peak too soon. That's happened to her before, if it happens again it could open the door for Shizuka, Sasha or Michelle.

  13. #43
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    Also Irina needs to be careful that she doesn't peak too soon. That's happened to her before, if it happens again it could open the door for Shizuka, Sasha or Michelle.
    Very true. ITA. But look at last year- she was dominant in the beginning, stumbled a little at Euros, and then came back with the skate of her life at Moscow to close. So you never know. Even the best have off nights now and then. You just gotta make sure it isn't on THE night.

  14. #44
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    Irina seems to be the current golden girl of the judges as the qualities they (en masse) seem to prefer are her strengths (fast, high jumps, combinations) and her weakness are things they (coincidentally, I think) don't much care about (line, posture, well-centered spins). It's called the luck of the draw, Kristi Yamaguchi was in a similar position (though her stengths and weaknesses were a lot different than Irina's).

    Anyway, my point here: How many Biellmann positions is Irina currently doing and can we _please_ have Zayack-style rule for Biellmann positions? I think the world of Irina as a person and a skater, but another weakness the judges don't seem to care about is her horrible Biellmann position (only slightly better than Plushenko's)

  15. #45
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    realistic51

    Couldnt agree more . You said it all. The ques. is will Irina WIN the OGM or will it be GIVEN to her? I want Michelle to win but if Irina really wins without inflated marks I will be Happy for her. Now I must say the competition this weekend showed how a surprise can come upon us when least expecting it. My hope is that another surprise awaits us and the best skate wins or the sport goes in the coffin. Im not betting on anyone winning but being given the Gold is another matter and that could well happen. Ya know the old saying Life happens while your making other plans. Im not counting anyone out.

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