Assess (honestly) the US men

ilovepaydays · Nov 22, 2005

Sadly, I don't see any of the US men clearly on the Podium at the Olympics. But it is the Olympics and some skaters who are doing great now might choke and some that are iffy might end up rising to the occasion at the end of the season.

Evan: Best hope right now for a medal. But I think "Grease" is boring unless he REALLY sells it. Then it will be awesome.

The rest of these men are too iffy for me to say whether or not they will make it to Turino:

Johnny: I feel like he is imploding. I hope I am wrong. We'll see at Cup of Russia.

Mike W.: Never was a big fan. His comes accross with a bad attitude. I do admire him for staying at this level for so long.

Tim: Used to be my favorite male skater (Now it is Buttle). I am glad he made an improvement in Paris over Skate America. Hopefully he will work the program so he can peak at Nationals/Olympics. I am afraid if he makes mistakes at Nationals (which has never been a great competition for him) he won't make the team. But didn't he fall a bunch of times at 2002 and 2003 Nats? Then look at what happened next.

Matt Savioe: It is motivating to see someone continue sport and education. If he makes the team it would be awesome.

JOHIO2 · Nov 22, 2005

ilovepaydays,

i didn't think tim goebel would medal last olympics, yet he did. so i think we could have at least one major surprise a la paul wylie. who that may be, i won't even guess. but somewhere on one of the skating podiums will be a big surprise winner.

euterpe · Nov 22, 2005

Evan Lysacek has already announced he's ditching "Grease". Smart move.

Wait until after Cup of Russia to give up on Weir. It's not too late for him to regroup and peak at the right time. Early bloomers often fade as the season goes on.

As for Goebel and Weiss, they are in their last season and either will have a tough fight to make top 3 at Nationals.

The third man could be anyone: Savoie, Jahnke or Scott Smith, who has a quad and scored high at Sectionals.

Frau Muller · Nov 22, 2005

They'll have to battle Plush, Joubert, Lambiel, Buttle, E-man, and various Chinese & Japanese guys. Truth be told, any of the American will be darn lucky to make top five.

Tonichelle · Nov 22, 2005

Johnny said a few weeks ago that mens skating was "boring" because everyone looked the same... I think the US men are probably the most unique of all of the skaters... I don't think any of the top names look alike. I don't know where Johnny was getting it because I haven't seen much in the way of copy cats (Joubert and KVDP maybe but other than that I haven't)

Are they inconsistent? Yes, but isn't that the story of the US men in this part of the season? I'm not going to worry until nationals. If they're all going to play zamboni they might want to hang up the phone and just not go (ok not really but they do need to get their rears in gear)

Johnny, I think, is a lock for the team... Evan is a possibility... right now i'm not sure about Tim. I doubt hightly that Ryan Jahnke will make it... Matt and Mike are both dark horses as well...

If Tim doesn't skate perfectly at nationals... and is outskated by Mike, I wouldn't be surprised if Tim gets left off the team. Not sure about Matt but Mike seems to get lucky

Tenorguy · Nov 22, 2005

ilovepaydays,

I have to agree with Frau Miller.... I just don't see these wonderful skaters rising to the level of OLY Gold.

Sadly, I do not believe that Tim has the champion spirit left in him..... maybe that is just my perception, but if its not his boots, its his training time he whines about. Majorly sorry, but the whining is getting old.

Johnny has been discussed here ad nauseum.... he is a wonderful and expressive skater, but he does not read "champion" to me. I am a tough old bird, but from my vantage point Johnny needs to strenghten his backbone and learn some tact. I honestly wish him well - but without a quad, what can he ultimately accomplish?

Question - let's say both Johnny and Jeffrey plan a quad in combo in the OLY LP; if Jeffrey falls on his attempt and Johnny skips any attempt on the quad under COP help me understand which skater would be hit with a deduction?

Thanks! Tenorguy

slutskayafan21 · Nov 22, 2005

With Sandhu, Lambiel, Plushenko, Buttle, and various Asians and European dark horses out there I dont see a medal for the U.S men unless Weir really gets his act together and hits his peak form by February. Lysacek is not Olympic medal material, his bronze at Worlds was a huge fluke. Goebel's days as a contender are over, he might make the team but will be lucky to make the top 10 in Turin.

sk8er1964 · Nov 22, 2005

Tenorguy said:
Question - let's say both Johnny and Jeffrey plan a quad in combo in the OLY LP; if Jeffrey falls on his attempt and Johnny skips any attempt on the quad under COP help me understand which skater would be hit with a deduction?

The way I understand it, Jeff would get an automatic 1.0 deduction, plus -3 GOE's and a possible downgrading of the quad to a triple, depending on how rotated the jump is. As for Johnny, it depends on what the skip is -- if it's a triple instead of a quad, he'd get the points for the triple. However, if it's completely skipped he'd get zero points, or if it's popped, he's get points for a single with a -3 GOE.

(I'm assuming under your scenario, neither man finishes the second jump of the combo.)

ETA - Look for Rohene Ward at Nats.......

I saw him skate last year, and he was awesome -- inconsistent, but awesome. I understand he landed at least one, maybe two quads at Mids. Won't make Oly podium, with the politics, but should be a good one to watch anyway.

ilovepaydays · Nov 22, 2005

Evan Lysacek has already announced he's ditching "Grease". Smart move.

Good! But isn't it kinda late to start a new program from scratch? Or is he going back to Singing in the Rain?

I think Tim should work on just jumps. And perhaps give Lori Nichol a call......

ElFuego · Nov 22, 2005

sk8er1964 said:
ETA - Look for Rohene Ward at Nats.......

I saw him skate last year, and he was awesome -- inconsistent, but awesome. I understand he landed at least one, maybe two quads at Mids.

Two quads. 4t-2t in the short program, 4t-3t in the long program.

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 22, 2005

Tim had an incredible 2003 Worlds with many saying he should have won. (Evgeni made a few bad errors).

Even at that skate, he looked like he could take it on the following year. But whatever it was with his crooked skates or spinal misalignment, he went downhill. Sad but that's what happened. He does have spunk so maybe he will be able to regain his former stature, and show it at Nationals.

Johnny, however frank and 'honest' he is, talks to much at time when fans want to see action. As one of Johnny's original fans from way back I want to see that action at the Nationals (and less talk, please).

Michael should be a stunning skater but he languishes in all the wrong programs. I haven't see the TEB yet. I hope they show it on TV. Maybe there is hope,

Apparently we are left with Evan and we'll catch him shortly. There are 4 Europeans and 1 Canadian with fairly secure quads. Should Evan take the risk?

Joe

yelyoh · Nov 22, 2005

i think US men are in a freefall so far this year. If JW could get back to what/how he was doing last year, he would have a shot at a medal. He did very well at the GP series last year. But he needs to shut and put out. He remains my favorite US man, however. EL does not have what it takes to compete against the field that will show up at the Olys. The bronze last year was a fluke. TG is no longer the Tim of the past. With PSCs in the mid 6s and his jumps MIA, he doesn't have a prayer. If MW could actually land one of those quads in a comp and let that energy carry him through the rest of the program, he might... nah, I don't think he has enough to compete for a medal. So I think JW is the most likely but at this point not that likely. Makes me sad.

Tenorguy · Nov 22, 2005

Sk8tr1964 -

You are correct... neither man completes the second jump. Thanks for the analysis!

BTW - What is a GOE? I am soooo green :no:

soogar · Nov 22, 2005

Of the US men, Evan is the only one who could bring home a medal. Evan is a tough competitor and has his eye on the prize. I don't think that Johnny has that toughness. Tim I think is through. I know Tim is capable of rising to the occasion, but somehow I think he lost it. Mike has a good look this year and he can make the US team. I hope though that one of the guys who has been consistent with the quad has a shot for the team. I'd like to see Rohene or Scott get a shot to make the team just to get experience. Mike isn't going to win the US a medal in the games and I think the same way about Johnny as well.

jesslily · Nov 22, 2005

Even, Tim, and Johnny are most likely to make the Olympic team, but none of them
has the chance to stand on the podium. They are not in the right spirit, and not in shape.

ilovepaydays · Nov 22, 2005

I agree jesslily. I hope that like in pairs, we have a great group of up and coming men who are training for 2010. I think the US men are in a funk right now. Maybe it is the judging system. Or that they are interested in pursuing other things.

But do you want them to be peaking RIGHT NOW? I think some of the men who are doing so spectacular now will fizzle out by February. I am still hoping that ONE of them rises to the occasion in Turino.

jesslily · Nov 22, 2005

I don't remember Even did so poor last year or year before in the early season. Not in the right spirit and going-to-peak in two months are very different, and you can tell if you are careful. I feel that they are facing enormous stress and many things did not go as they planed or wished, so they are stressed out. Tim is in the worst shape of his skating career. I hadn't seen him totally gave up after failed the quad. He did just that recently. Johnny's ankle wasn't as bad as he thought. Acturally his skating before that triple toe(quad toe attempt) did not attract people's attention at all. Anybody know how Even's new program going? I wish he find a right piece of music and Lori finish up the choreography now. Otherwise it's too late. It may not be too much for Even if he gets his jumps and spins solid. As for choreography, it needs time, nonstressful time, to do a good program.

attyfan · Nov 22, 2005

IMO, it is way too early to write off the American men. IMO, Evan did not do too badly if his new program is better than "Grease" (whiich I think is highly likely), he may pull a surprise. Johnny had great success at the GP last season, but got hurt at Worlds, so maybe this year he can turn things around, with injuries early and peaking later.

Mathman · Nov 22, 2005

Tenorguy said:
Sk8tr1964 -

You are correct... neither man completes the second jump. Thanks for the analysis!

BTW - What is a GOE? I am soooo green :no:

GOE is the "grade of execution." After the technical specialist "calls" the element the judges enter a score of -3 to +3 reflecting the quality of the element according to various criteria. (The GOE is pro-rated for elements with lower base value.)

If you're keeping score, a quad toe gives you 9.0 points. If you complete the full four revolutions but fall on the landing, you get an automatic -3 GOE in addition to a -1 fall deduction, as Sk8er1964 outlines. This gives you a total of 5.0 points for that element.

If you hold back and do a triple toe toe instead, that is worth 4.0 base value.

So I guess you can say it is better to quad and fall than never to quad at all.

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 22, 2005

Keep your eye on ROHENE! If he skates clean, he's a winner.

Some of last years' juniors look good: Carriere and Steenberg.

Joe

Assess (honestly) the US men

ilovepaydays

JOHIO2

euterpe

Frau Muller

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

Tenorguy

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

sk8er1964

ilovepaydays

ElFuego

Joesitz (RIP)

yelyoh

Tenorguy

soogar

jesslily

ilovepaydays

jesslily

attyfan

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Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

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