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Thread: Very unlucky Arakawa!!!

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    Very unlucky Arakawa!!!

    Just wanted to point out Shizuka has had some terrable luck. She easily could have finished 2nd in her two events, but finished 3rd. She skated well enough she would have smoked either Sokolova, Rochette, or Csizny at their events, but they skated in weaker fields at Skate Canada and Skate America and racked up points. This former World Champion who has regained her old form to some extent, and is once again one of the best in the World perhaps will likely miss the GP final, and her spots taken by skaters who lucked out to be in the right events. I am pretty sure Ando will get a spot as well. If one of the skaters gets injured she might get in, although I dont want to wish an injury on anybody obviously, but it happens, so she might get lucky yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
    Just wanted to point out Shizuka has had some terrable luck. She easily could have finished 2nd in her two events, but finished 3rd. She skated well enough she would have smoked either Sokolova, Rochette, or Csizny at their events, but they skated in weaker fields at Skate Canada and Skate America and racked up points. This former World Champion who has regained her old form to some extent, and is once again one of the best in the World perhaps will likely miss the GP final, and her spots taken by skaters who lucked out to be in the right events. I am pretty sure Ando will get a spot as well. If one of the skaters gets injured she might get in, although I dont want to wish an injury on anybody obviously, but it happens, so she might get lucky yet.



    yes,she sure is. the judges see her underrotated jumps but not jeffrey buttle's

  3. #3
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    She's defnitely on the bubble for the Grand Prix final. By getting 14 points for a third and a third, she loses the tie-breaker to any skater (Rochette, for instance), who gets a second and a fourth.

    Even Carolina Kostner (only 2 points so far) could bump her if Carolina wins NHK.

    MM
    Last edited by Mathman; 11-25-2005 at 02:14 PM.

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    It isnt fair since I know he would have beaten Rochette, Csizny, and Sokolova by a long ways if she had competed against them. It isnt right how some events end up so much lower caliber and skaters pick up easy almost gimme points, while others are held back by stronger fields. Also crs is right, she was docked too hard for slightly cheated jumps, while others like Buttle have to have a half-turn cheat on jumps it seems to lose marks. It will be a crime if she doesnt make the GP final IMO, and I am not a big fan of her, her caliber of skating in her two GP events should be GP final bound.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
    It isnt fair since I know he would have beaten Rochette, Csizny, and Sokolova by a long ways if she had competed against them. It isnt right how some events end up so much lower caliber and skaters pick up easy almost gimme points, while others are held back by stronger fields. Also crs is right, she was docked too hard for slightly cheated jumps, while others like Buttle have to have a half-turn cheat on jumps it seems to lose marks. It will be a crime if she doesnt make the GP final IMO, and I am not a big fan of her, her caliber of skating in her two GP events should be GP final bound.
    Buttle skated at Skate Canada, not surprisingly. Evgeni skated at Cup of Russia.
    Lysacek skated at Skate America. Arakawa does not skate at NHK........

    Had she skated a better SP she would have been second at TEB but apparently she didn't. Shizuka had the toughest GP events to get points while IS was looming there.

    As I said before, I think if the GPs continue, skaters will consider utilizing Skate America and Skate Canada, particularly if they feel solid in their programs. SA and SC are early in the season and to get at least one of them over with gives the skater the points and the chance to work on another venue.

    On another note:

    When one disapproves of the placement of a skater, one will come up with the usual chestnut: He/she underrotates his/her jumps. Those posters have eagle eyes and the judges do not.

    Joe

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    When one disapproves of the placement of a skater, one will come up with the usual chestnut: He/she underrotates his/her jumps. Those posters have eagle eyes and the judges do not.

    Joe
    Awww but judges are human too.

    I think you are right it will be smart strategy for skaters to start doing Skate America and Skate Canada, to secure points right away, and they seem to attract weaker fields. Arakawa needed slightly better short programs at her two events to place higher.

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    The strategy should have been to avoid any event with just-waiting-to-be-crowned 2006 Olympic Gold Medalist Irina Slutskaya in it. That would have been one reserved spot (and 12 points) out of the way.

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    Go NJ Devils
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    Arakawa doesn't have a choice in which events she skates. The host Federations offer the invitations. The only Federation with any influence over whether she skated against Slutskaya was the Japanese Federation. They could have chosen her for NHK without offering an invitation to Slutskaya, but they didn't.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyfan228
    Arakawa doesn't have a choice in which events she skates. The host Federations offer the invitations. The only Federation with any influence over whether she skated against Slutskaya was the Japanese Federation. They could have chosen her for NHK without offering an invitation to Slutskaya, but they didn't.
    Thanks for the info. I didn't know the ISU offers the invitations. I thought the Feds just filled up the spots on behalf of their skaters with highest World Standings going first.

    BTW - Who at the ISU fills up the spots? Cinquanta?

    Joe
    Last edited by Joesitz; 11-27-2005 at 07:21 AM.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    About Skate America and Skate Canada, I think it was an anomaly this year that they were among the weaker events. It comes and goes, and you can't really predict withdrawals.

    MM

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    A strange and unlikely result at NHK could put more than Zhiz "at risk" in the standings. If I did the math right (which is suspect after one 1 coffee) then an outcome like this:

    1 - Meissner
    2 - Nakano
    3 - Ando

    Would put them all in front of Sokolova, Rochette and Arakawa in the standings. Unlikely, but sometimes strange things happen on the ice. So I think at this stage the only positions for the ladies that are 100% secure are the top 3.

    Joe, I was looking on the ISU site to try to find the document which details how the ISU invites work. I wish they had a better search funtion on their site, or more precise names of documents or something, because I couldn't find it. But there is some order to it intended to maintain some sense of balance (at least on paper) to mix of skaters in each event. It's not just a random free for all between the federations, nor is it speedy sitting in a room figuring out how to favor the people who bought him the most good italian wine.

    MM - I agree that no one can predict withdrawls which makes a huge difference. (and what a HUGE difference it made for Alissa!!) Also, no one can predict how a skater that did well at World's last year will do this year (i.e. Carolina at SC) making a decent field "on paper" appear weaker in reality.

    Congratulations to those who are already "in" and good luck to the competitors at NHK. And chocolate press on finger nails to the skater's "on the bubble." (and I'll add a "Go Miki, Go Miki" while I'm at it!)

    DG

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    Would Arakawa be more likely to make the GPF, if the particpants in the final were decided by the top 6 in CoP points per discipline. as opposed to total points, based on placement at the GP events?

  13. #13
    Sal-Kowabunga!
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    hockeyfan,

    Considering that Irina and Shizuka and Mao have already finished their GP assignments and the NHK is next weekend, I'll presume you meant the Chinese and French federations who invited Shizuka and Mao (and Irina in COC).

    As for DG's chocolate press-on nails for Shizuka's wait -- maybe she likes chocolate and maybe it's good for her. The Japanese fed knows that Mao has beaten Shiz twice this year, but little Mao isn't going to the Olympics because of her age. And the only Olympic eligible lady who's scored better is Miki Ando (let's face it. Miki has NHK and will probably medal there. Fumie had a rough start at Canada and Yoshie barely won her bronze medals at Skate America and Cup of Russia.) Shiz is a former world champion. As long as she finishes on the podium, even at the pewter/fourth level, she's going to the Olympics. And no GP final means she's got time to work on her skating without the stress and travel time of competing at GPF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    About Skate America and Skate Canada, I think it was an anomaly this year that they were among the weaker events. It comes and goes, and you can't really predict withdrawals.

    MM
    I find they have been weaker than other GP events in the last quadrennial for some reason, to some extent the field, to some extent the performances. Particularly the womens fields. Remember last year Phaneuf won Skate Canada with two falls, in what was a bit of a weaker field, but also where many of the better skaters were very ragged. Skate America last year was also a weaker field, with Nikidinov(who I really like, but lets face it, her winning a GP event at this point in her career is a jolt out of the blue)and Phaneuf going 1-2 both with fairly good performances, with mistakes and lesser difficulty, that would not have stood up in stronger fields. This year they were obviously alot weaker. In 2002/03 the level of performances were very diminished at Skate Canada compared to later events, and the field at Skate America other than Kwan was alot weaker than other GP events. 2003/04 is the only year that was somewhat of an exception, with Cohen and Arakawa at Skate America(and
    Jenny Kirk skating one of her best competitions ever to take 2nd, although nobody would have forseen Arakawa as highly at the start of th year), and Cohen, Arakawa, and Sebaysten all ate Skate Canada.

    Just some general observations on my part, you could be right that it is alot of just chance, but it seems to be a recent year trend.

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    The ISU Selection process for the Grand Prix:

    http://www.usfigureskating.org/Story...5740&type=news

    There have been some changes in the ISU rules relative to the Grand Prix as of this season, in that the top 10 skaters/teams in each discipline are considered SEEDED and are required to do two events.

    Of course, what is different about this season is also that the top 6 seeds can't do 3 events this year.
    Last edited by euterpe; 11-27-2005 at 07:01 PM.

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