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Thread: Olympic perspectives at this point

  1. #1
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    Olympic perspectives at this point

    Mens:

    Gold-Plushenko will definitely win this. It is a done deal, slam dunk, seniorita, barring a major injury.

    Silver-Lambiel will probably win silver. He is not a total lock but a fairly solid bet. He can afford his usual quota of mistakes and still be fairly safe, he will have to make more mistakes than usual to lose the silver.

    Bronze-this is wide open. Buttle is so inconsistent, that combined with his lack of a quad leaves this open. Lysacek, Weir, Takahashi, all have a shot at this. Sandhu is too inconsistent, I am pretty sure now he wont be on the podium. Joubert wont do it, he seems to have lost his confidence, and I dont like his skating anyway. Lindemann has had his moments in the sun, it is over for him.



    Pairs:

    Gold-Totmianina and Marinin are favored but I am not sure they are safe. There is talk Shen/Zhou might return, remember how inspired a performance they put on at the 2003 Worlds when she had a serious foot injury? Zhang/Zhang beat them technicaly and challenged them overall in the free program at the GP final. Totminaina/Marinin have been solid this year but not specatcular, I am not sure if they are safe, but they are still the most likely winners.

    Silver-The three teams I mentioned before could make up the podium on their own. Still Petrova/Tikhonov have a chance to beat Zhang/Zhang or a poorly prepared Shen/Zhou and come as high as silver. They have no chance for gold since they have no chance to beat Totmianina/Marinin who they have not beaten in many years.

    Bronze-Savchenko/Szowkowlsky I could not see doing any better than 3rd, but they could sneak in for the bronze. Pang/Tong I could also not see doing any better than 3rd but they could sneak in the for the bronze as well. Both these teams have a chance vs any team except Totmainina/
    Marinin, but they wont beat every other contending team to win silver, they might beat all but one(not a specific one)to get a bronze.



    Dance:

    Gold-Navka Kostomarov have this in the bag unless they have a huge error in more than one program, or two in the same program. Belbin/Agosto getting citzenship changes almost nothing, except they could lose with a disaester now. George Bush is arrogant to think him touting Belbin/Agosto for gold like he did at the citzenship officialization will mean anything to the Olympic judges.

    Silver-Belbin/Agosto are probably now favored for this, but Grushina/
    Goncharov have a shot at this too. Belbin/Agosto have been set back by injuries this year and I dont see them as close to Navka/Kostomarov as last year, and I see Grushina/Goncharov being on of the teams closer to them now than before.

    Bronze-Dubreuil/Lauzon could sneak onto the podium over one of Belbin/Agosto or Grushina/Goncharov. Chait/Shaknovsky I give even a more outside shot to sneak in for the bronze, but it would take a great skate, since these 4 teams have all been bettering them this year.


    Ladies:

    Gold-Irina Slutskaya is now vurnerable. She still is the odds on winner, but it is not as near to clear cut as before. Arakawa and Cohen are the ones with the most potential to upset her IMO. Arakawa needs to stop cheating her triples, making minor stumbles, and start doing her 3/3s again, if she does that she is all set to pull off something big. Cohen of course needs to do a completely clean free program, something she has never done, the other two women are technicaly superior to her IMO.

    Silver-I could not see Suguri winning gold, I could see her winning a silver or bronze with a performance like she had at the Japanese Nationals though. She knows how to get to a global podium, she has been World medalist twice, and she is a complete package when she skates well. She just doesnt have the extra spark to win, but she is a threat to anybody except Irina.

    Bronze-Kwan I could not see doing any better then bronze, but I would not totally discount her from surprising and sneaking in for the bronze, she is such a tough competitor and champion you cant totally overlook her even though everything seems bleak for her now. Kostner I also give an outside shot to repeat her surprise World bronze from last year, she is not skating well at all this year, and will need to draw some inspiration from the crowd to pull off something big. Ando is probably given the gift to be on the Japanese Olympic team, and will need to get her act together if she has any chance at stealing a bronze.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
    George Bush is arrogant to think him touting Belbin/Agosto for gold like he did at the citzenship officialization will mean anything to the Olympic judges.
    Um, what does the President have to do with this? Just curious. I didn't read any statement from him re: Tanith's citizenship. Did I miss something?

    I think B/A have a chance at gold, though it will most likely go to N/K. I'm not a big fan of dance.

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    Belbin was sworn in in Detroit. There are pictures on the USFS board of the ceremony, and President Bush was not there. I am surprised at such a snarky, out-of-place comment in a discussion of Olympic chances.

    Totmianina/Marinin have a not-so-little problem, and it is not Shen/Zhao. TT has been diagnosed with chronic gallbladder disease, and she suffered an acute attack that forced her to withdraw from Russian Nationals. It was her second attack in two months, and doctors said the attacks were due to long travel, stress, and improper diet. Seeing as how she is scheduled to compete at Euros in a little over two weeks and then at Olympics in another 3 weeks after that, I don't see how she can avoid more travel, stress, and uncertain dietary choices.

    Irina Slutskaya also has health problems. In a recent interview posted on the FSU board, she spoke of being on prednisone on a permanent basis, at least while she continues to compete, with the dosage determined by tests and/or the re-appearance of symptoms of the underlying vasculitis. She said her latest tests (before the GPF) were "not good" and her medication had to be increased. She said when she is on heavier doses, she gets headaches and traveling makes her feel dizzy and very jetlagged. That probably explains why she didn't skate well at the GPF and lost to Mao. She withdrew from Russian Nationals reportedly due to the flu, and that could very well be. Nationals were the week following the GPF, and she could easily have caught flu while traveling back from Japan. Among other side effects, prednisone negatively affects the immune system and makes the user vulnerable to communicable diseases.

  4. #4
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    I third Lanie and euterpe. If I see any more swipes at President Bush in posts, I'm going start inserting random insults aimed at certain Senators into all mine.

    And I hadn't heard about TT's gall bladder problem--ow! That can be profoundly painful. Diet's the real killer on that, too (my grandmother had gall bladder trouble) and travel can't be helping. While I'm not rooting for T/M for gold, I do hope she's recovered as much as possible by the Olys. Ditto Irina. Having personal experience with being on prednisone long-term I know it's no fun, though unfortunately with some illnesses there really isn't an alternative.

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    Men:
    Gold: most likely Plushenko, but he is by no means a given. His health is still a BIG question mark; I'm not giving him my vote until after Euros until we've seen him against the major contenders outside of Russia

    Silver: Lambiel, most likely, though if he's on and Plushy isn't, I wouldn't be surprised to see this reversed. He earned the GPF; even if Plushy wasn't there, he still had to outskate Buttle and the Japanese for it.

    Bronze: Buttle. Remember, we have CoP at the Olympics. Even w/o the quad, his PCS scores are gonna come into play here. Same w/ Sandhu if he skates well (especially if his PCS's are good enough to beat a decent Lambiel w/ two quads). If Joubert can be clean, he's up here too

    Ladies:
    Gold: Slutskaya. THIS ONE is certainty, barring any unforseen injury
    Cohen: definitely up there toward the top; a skate of her life could change this, though
    Bronze: Arakawa or Suguri. If MK's healthy and in form, she's a factor

    Pairs
    Gold: T/M, most likely, though I don't see how their FP hits the levels it does
    Silver: Z/Z; I submit to you that they have arguably the most difficult FP in the world today. If they skate it cleanly, they SHOULD get gold
    Bronze: Pet/Tikh. S/S can't go; she's not a German citizen

    Dance:
    Gold: N/K. No question, especially if they skate it like at Cup of China
    Silver: B/A
    Bronze: G/G

  6. #6
    On Edge Piel's Avatar
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    Hey Matt Aliona received her German citizenship last week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by euterpe
    Irina Slutskaya also has health problems. In a recent interview posted on the FSU board, she spoke of being on prednisone on a permanent basis, at least while she continues to compete, with the dosage determined by tests and/or the re-appearance of symptoms of the underlying vasculitis. She said her latest tests (before the GPF) were "not good" and her medication had to be increased. She said when she is on heavier doses, she gets headaches and traveling makes her feel dizzy and very jetlagged. That probably explains why she didn't skate well at the GPF and lost to Mao. She withdrew from Russian Nationals reportedly due to the flu, and that could very well be. Nationals were the week following the GPF, and she could easily have caught flu while traveling back from Japan. Among other side effects, prednisone negatively affects the immune system and makes the user vulnerable to communicable diseases.
    Oh, puh-leez. What do you bet she'll skate stronger than ever at the Olympics? So much drama from her.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Piel
    Hey Matt Aliona received her German citizenship last week.
    Did she really? Well, shows how out of the loop I am . In that case, they're the more likely candidates for the bronze, though Pet/Tikh have been skating well this year, so it's still gonna be a battle.

    I'm glad she got her citizenship in time. S/S are one of the best teams out there (and one of my huge favourites). It would have been an ironic shame with Germany having two pairs spots for the Olympics if they hadn't be one of them (btw, does anyone know who the other one was? was it Handke/Wende? just curious)

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    My perspective on the Olympics is that it's anybodies for the taking. I don't think that it matters what they do up to the day that they go out on the ice. All that matters is what they do at that few minutes in time. Anyone of the ladies or men can get on that ice and have the skate of their lives and win. I can't and won't even predict who will win, only time will tell. The skater that skates their best, will win and will deserve to win.

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    I don't think Plush is such a sure thing. I also think Jeff will have a hard time making the podium. Klimkin has a quad and has been landing it this year. He also skated well at Russian Nats and it seems like his performances are building up. I think he will definitely challenge for a medal and his consistency on the 3 axel will probably make him more of a threat to Lambiel's shot at a silver (and I think Ilia can challenge for gold). Then there is always Sandhu.

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    Klimkin winning the Olympic Gold? Well if that happens I will congratulate you on being right on that one since my personal view on that happening is . His window has passed IMO, and he should be happy to even be going to an Olympics at this point in his career. I do like him though, it is too bad his career has been hurt by injuries and personal tragedy.

  12. #12
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    [QUOTE=euterpe]Belbin was sworn in in Detroit. There are pictures on the USFS board of the ceremony, and President Bush was not there. I am surprised at such a snarky, out-of-place comment in a discussion of Olympic chances. [QUOTE]

    You call a comment by the President of the United States "snarky"? Are you an American, by the way? If you are not, keep your opinions to yourself. If you are, please show some respect. "Snarky" is a dumb, rude, immature adjective to use, in any circumstance.

    By the way, I think the President was just trying to show his support for Tanith and Agosto. He probably isn't an avid figure skating fan, but it's nice that he showed his support for this wonderful ice dance team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFan4Life
    Quote Originally Posted by euterpe
    Belbin was sworn in in Detroit. There are pictures on the USFS board of the ceremony, and President Bush was not there. I am surprised at such a snarky, out-of-place comment in a discussion of Olympic chances.
    You call a comment by the President of the United States "snarky"? Are you an American, by the way? If you are not, keep your opinions to yourself. If you are, please show some respect. "Snarky" is a dumb, rude, immature adjective to use, in any circumstance.
    .
    I'm not sure to whom your post pointed to. But with all respect, I think euterpe was respond this post:
    Gold-Navka Kostomarov have this in the bag unless they have a huge error in more than one program, or two in the same program. Belbin/Agosto getting citzenship changes almost nothing, except they could lose with a disaester now. George Bush is arrogant to think him touting Belbin/Agosto for gold like he did at the citzenship officialization will mean anything to the Olympic judges.
    I'm an American, by chose not by born. I do feel the mention of the President Bush in this instance and style is unnecessary and "snark".
    Last edited by mzheng; 01-02-2006 at 08:36 PM.

  14. #14
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    Who listens to George Bush anyway, LOL ?(ducking)

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Piel
    Who listens to George Bush anyway, LOL ?(ducking)

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