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Thread: Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

  1. #16
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    With MK there, I think Cohen's chances would have been right around the 5.5 border.

    Now I'd say it's a solid 7.

    You see, I think Cohen can still win this with a few mistakes. It's not only Cohen under pressure but EVERYBODY will be under pressure. But I think the title being basically within her grasp could freak her out- maybe not during the SP but the FS. Or it may bring out the best in her, to want to win that title fair and square without any doubt like an "invisible asterisk" or "she won because Kwan wasn't there", etc. There's just no way of knowing how things will turn out.

    But to be blunt, this ladies event has the potential to be a real snoozer. (Some of you call it a "splatfest", and that's fine, too.)

    On the bright side, we might get to see a skater on TV we otherwise wouldn't have seen with MK competing.

  2. #17
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    I'll give it an 8, Sasha still needs to skate 2 clean programs.
    I also think if one of the other ladies Aylissa, Kimmie skate clean and are judge fairly they can win.
    It's going to very interesting!!!!

  3. #18
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    If she skates perfectly, it's hers.

    If she, Alissa, and Kimmie all make mistakes, it's still hers.

    If she makes mistakes and Alissa or Kimmie skates perfectly, there is a good chance one of them could take the title from her. It's all about how she can handle her nerves, and her past experience indicates that she has a hard time doing this. She has never skated a clean program in a major competition, and I'm sure thats frustrating as often times the doors are wide open for her and all she needs to do is be clean. What is there to make me think that she will be clean now, when she has never been able to pull it together before?

    Overall, I'd put her chances at an 8. There is definitely room for others to squeeze in if she makes mistakes.

    BTW, I think that Kimmie and Alissa are the only competitors that have a chance at beating Sasha at nationals, if anyone has the chance. Both of them have already had the sucess in the GP events that neither Emily nor Bebe have had, and I think that gives them a slight edge.

    If everyone is clean, I predict Sasha will win it, Alissa will get the silver, and Kimmie will get the bronze, therefore Michelle, Sasha, and Alissa will go to Torino.

  4. #19
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    Well, the door may have been open in the past, but it's WIDE open this time.

  5. #20
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    I'd put her chance at walking away with gold at about a 5. It is quite possible that she could at last put it all together when it really matters. More likely though is that she will have her usual SashaSplatFest. If no one else goes clean, she could still win with a meltdown because it is obvios that the judges have been dying to crown her since day one. But if Alissa skates up to her capability and Kimmie manages to fully rotate her 3A and a 3-3, I don't think Sasha's little mistakes can be ignored. No doubt it is hers to lose, and that is how she will skate it. Not to lose. And I think she will be very nervous, and she will falter. I don't think she "controls her own destiny", she will need "help" from others in order to win.

  6. #21
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    I do think that Sasha is in a class by herself in this competition.

    But the other two podium places could see a real catfight. Besides the "usual suspects," less heralded skaters like Erica Archambault, Jane Bugaeva, Danielle Kahle, Abigail Legg, Stephanie Roth, Katy Taylor and Christine Zakowski could make some noise. I can't wait!

    MM

  7. #22
    Custom Title heyang's Avatar
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    I'll say 9 on a scale of 10. Sasha's got to really blow it to not win this one, but she's been ahead in the SP before and not been able to win the LP due to her own mistakes. She's always wanted the title and had the means to attain it.

    If Sasha does her usual and someone else has the skate of their career, Sasha could lose, but the odds are slim, IMO.

    I don't know if she'll do her usual type of splatting. To me, she has appeared less uptight than in the past seasons, but she's only skated 2 events (Marshall's and Grand Prix event). No pressure event this season.

  8. #23
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    A win here could give her great confidence for the Olys. She will be under great pressure to do well at Nats, and if she can deal with it here, she can do the same there. JMO

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    I do think that Sasha is in a class by herself in this competition.

    But the other two podium places could see a real catfight. Besides the "usual suspects," less heralded skaters like Erica Archambault, Jane Bugaeva, Danielle Kahle, Abigail Legg, Stephanie Roth, Katy Taylor and Christine Zakowski could make some noise. I can't wait!

    MM
    While I can't wait to see the top skaters live, I am equally looking forward to seeing Katy Taylor, Christine Zakowski, Danielle Kahle, and others. I think I've seen Katy maybe 2 or 3 times on video, Danielle I think once on video, and I don't believe I've ever seen Christine.

    Can't Wait!!

    DG

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogre Mage
    *On a scale of 0 (absolutely no chance) to 10 (cosmic certainty) what are Sasha's chances of winning U.S. Nationals?
    10

    *What will it take for someone to upset Sasha? Who is most likely to do this?
    N/A since I said 10 above.

    *Will Sasha be more likely to skate better, worse or the same with Michelle not there? Will Michelle's pullout put more or less pressure on her?
    .
    This is hard to say. MK's presence could affect her performance level. But so can other skaters. It really depends if she's truely changed as her said that she is now only mind doing her own best. Though I doubt very much based on what I heard she was make round at South Cal rinks. She is still too careing what others doing. If only she's concentrating doing her own best, she would be hard to beat.

    Also, I don't think the 2006 U.S. ladies champ will have an asterisk next to their name because Kwan withdrew. Nancy Kerrigan in 1993 and Nicole Bobek in 1995 won their U.S. titles with less than spectacular performances and/or a weak field and I've never heard anyone call their titles illegitimate. When Maria Butyrskaya won Worlds in 1999, she was remembered as the oldest woman ever to win a world championship. No one says her victory was hollow because Michelle was suffering from a fever at that Worlds.
    Win is win, no whatif. What if you get 1992's modri competed in current Olympics?

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    A win here could give her great confidence for the Olys. She will be under great pressure to do well at Nats, and if she can deal with it here, she can do the same there. JMO
    What great pressure? Without MK, she will win with a so so performance.

    Vash

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01
    What great pressure? Without MK, she will win with a so so performance.

    Vash
    It has nothing to do with MK, and everything to do with people expecting her to not only win, but TO DO TWO CLEAN PERFORMANCES.

  13. #28
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    Predictions

    I think Sasha will skate the way she usually does in big events -- a good performance overall, but with one or two errors. For an upset to occur, Sasha would have to do more than just make a mistake. She would have to melt down and someone else would have to skate great. I just don't see that happening. With Kwan out, Sasha is the best balanced skater in the event and has far and away the most impressive competitive record -- which carries more political weight than usual in an Olympic year. Alissa is Sasha's equal and in some ways superior in presentation, but as a jumper she actually makes even Sasha look consistent. Kimmie is way superior to Sasha on the tech, but in spite of her faux-Salome makeover she is still way behind on the PCS.

    I think the judges will hold Alissa down on the TES, hold Kimmie down on the PCS and Sasha will win.
    Last edited by Ogre Mage; 01-08-2006 at 02:08 AM.

  14. #29
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    I think Sasha will skate the way she usually does in big events -- a good performance overall, but with one or two errors. For an upset to occur, Sasha would have to do more than just make a mistake. She would have to melt down and someone else would have to skate great.
    Overall, I think you're right on here. But I DO think it's a possibility (ok, rather remote, I admit, but) that the above can occur. However, even if she falls twice and messes something else up, the others will have to do pretty well on top of that. But I get the impression Cohen wouldn't want this title without putting her best effort out there. What if she does NOT do so well (to put it mildly), but wins anyway? How will she feel then? I'd think it would be rather bittersweet.

  15. #30
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    I think Sasha is going to WOL us all at Nationals. I saw a different Sasha at Marshalls, more relaxed and happy. She has so much tallent and is such a beautiful skater. Heres hoping she goes into Nationals relaxed and enjoys herself as much as she did at Marshalls and then repeats it at the Olympics.
    Best of luck to all the skaters at Nationals.
    Last edited by Peggy; 01-07-2006 at 05:52 AM.

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