Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

Mathman · Jan 6, 2006

I do think that Sasha is in a class by herself in this competition.

But the other two podium places could see a real catfight. Besides the "usual suspects," less heralded skaters like Erica Archambault, Jane Bugaeva, Danielle Kahle, Abigail Legg, Stephanie Roth, Katy Taylor and Christine Zakowski could make some noise. I can't wait!

MM

heyang · Jan 6, 2006

I'll say 9 on a scale of 10. Sasha's got to really blow it to not win this one, but she's been ahead in the SP before and not been able to win the LP due to her own mistakes. She's always wanted the title and had the means to attain it.

If Sasha does her usual and someone else has the skate of their career, Sasha could lose, but the odds are slim, IMO.

I don't know if she'll do her usual type of splatting. To me, she has appeared less uptight than in the past seasons, but she's only skated 2 events (Marshall's and Grand Prix event). No pressure event this season.

R.D. · Jan 6, 2006

A win here could give her great confidence for the Olys. She will be under great pressure to do well at Nats, and if she can deal with it here, she can do the same there. JMO

Doggygirl · Jan 7, 2006

Mathman said:
I do think that Sasha is in a class by herself in this competition.

But the other two podium places could see a real catfight. Besides the "usual suspects," less heralded skaters like Erica Archambault, Jane Bugaeva, Danielle Kahle, Abigail Legg, Stephanie Roth, Katy Taylor and Christine Zakowski could make some noise. I can't wait!

MM

While I can't wait to see the top skaters live, I am equally looking forward to seeing Katy Taylor, Christine Zakowski, Danielle Kahle, and others. I think I've seen Katy maybe 2 or 3 times on video, Danielle I think once on video, and I don't believe I've ever seen Christine.

Can't Wait!!

DG

mzheng · Jan 7, 2006

Ogre Mage said:
*On a scale of 0 (absolutely no chance) to 10 (cosmic certainty) what are Sasha's chances of winning U.S. Nationals?

10

*What will it take for someone to upset Sasha? Who is most likely to do this?

N/A since I said 10 above.

*Will Sasha be more likely to skate better, worse or the same with Michelle not there? Will Michelle's pullout put more or less pressure on her?
.

This is hard to say. MK's presence could affect her performance level. But so can other skaters. It really depends if she's truely changed as her said that she is now only mind doing her own best. Though I doubt very much based on what I heard she was make round at South Cal rinks. She is still too careing what others doing. If only she's concentrating doing her own best, she would be hard to beat.

Also, I don't think the 2006 U.S. ladies champ will have an asterisk next to their name because Kwan withdrew. Nancy Kerrigan in 1993 and Nicole Bobek in 1995 won their U.S. titles with less than spectacular performances and/or a weak field and I've never heard anyone call their titles illegitimate. When Maria Butyrskaya won Worlds in 1999, she was remembered as the oldest woman ever to win a world championship. No one says her victory was hollow because Michelle was suffering from a fever at that Worlds.

Win is win, no whatif. What if you get 1992's modri competed in current Olympics?

Vash01 · Jan 7, 2006

Red Dog said:
A win here could give her great confidence for the Olys. She will be under great pressure to do well at Nats, and if she can deal with it here, she can do the same there. JMO

What great pressure? Without MK, she will win with a so so performance.

Vash

R.D. · Jan 7, 2006

Vash01 said:
What great pressure? Without MK, she will win with a so so performance.

Vash

It has nothing to do with MK, and everything to do with people expecting her to not only win, but TO DO TWO CLEAN PERFORMANCES.

Ogre Mage · Jan 7, 2006

Predictions

I think Sasha will skate the way she usually does in big events -- a good performance overall, but with one or two errors. For an upset to occur, Sasha would have to do more than just make a mistake. She would have to melt down and someone else would have to skate great. I just don't see that happening. With Kwan out, Sasha is the best balanced skater in the event and has far and away the most impressive competitive record -- which carries more political weight than usual in an Olympic year. Alissa is Sasha's equal and in some ways superior in presentation, but as a jumper she actually makes even Sasha look consistent. Kimmie is way superior to Sasha on the tech, but in spite of her faux-Salome makeover she is still way behind on the PCS.

I think the judges will hold Alissa down on the TES, hold Kimmie down on the PCS and Sasha will win.

R.D. · Jan 7, 2006

I think Sasha will skate the way she usually does in big events -- a good performance overall, but with one or two errors. For an upset to occur, Sasha would have to do more than just make a mistake. She would have to melt down and someone else would have to skate great.

Overall, I think you're right on here. But I DO think it's a possibility (ok, rather remote, I admit, but) that the above can occur. However, even if she falls twice and messes something else up, the others will have to do pretty well on top of that. But I get the impression Cohen wouldn't want this title without putting her best effort out there. What if she does NOT do so well (to put it mildly), but wins anyway? How will she feel then? I'd think it would be rather bittersweet.

Peggy · Jan 7, 2006

I think Sasha is going to WOL us all at Nationals. I saw a different Sasha at Marshalls, more relaxed and happy. She has so much tallent and is such a beautiful skater. Heres hoping she goes into Nationals relaxed and enjoys herself as much as she did at Marshalls and then repeats it at the Olympics.
Best of luck to all the skaters at Nationals.

R.D. · Jan 7, 2006

What is WOL?

Sorry for asking...but I don't know...

kyla2 · Jan 7, 2006

A Ten

No question about it, a ten.

Mathman · Jan 7, 2006

Red Dog said:
Sorry for asking...but I don't know...

I think it's WOW. As in, Sasha is going to wow us in St. Louis! :rock:

Peggy · Jan 7, 2006

Mathman said:
I think it's WOW. As in, Sasha is going to wow us in St. Louis!

You are so right to correct me. WOW is what I meant to say, I should not have been writing anything at that time of the morning. :laugh:

donnar0226 · Jan 7, 2006

dancindiva03 said:
I'd put her chance at walking away with gold at about a 5. It is quite possible that she could at last put it all together when it really matters. More likely though is that she will have her usual SashaSplatFest. But if Alissa skates up to her capability and Kimmie manages to fully rotate her 3A and a 3-3, I

I disagree that Sasha has "splatfest"--she seldom falls three times as did Alissa in a few comptetitions this season--also Kimmie...so saying if "alissa skates up to her capability" would be more of a question--if "Alissa controls her splatfests, she could win" and then probably only is Sasha has a mistake. If all skate clean, Sasha will win--if all make mistakes, Sasha will wn. If Sasha makes a mistake, and Kimmie and Alissa don't, they have a change to win depending on the quality of their skate (i.e. a slow cautious skate, even in no faults might not do it.)

Just unfair to label Sasha as unable to lay down clean skates when the other two have had downright disastrous skates to go with the good skates--in my mind no more predictable than Sasha.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 7, 2006

I think Sasha is more seasoned than Alissa. I do think Alissa is a better free skater than Sasha but she doesn't have the past experience that Sasaha has.

Sasha will not be as nervouse because she is basically assured a spot on the team regardless of her placement.

Joe

dancindiva03 · Jan 7, 2006

donnar0226 said:
dancindiva03 said:

I'd put her chance at walking away with gold at about a 5. It is quite possible that she could at last put it all together when it really matters. More likely though is that she will have her usual SashaSplatFest. But if Alissa skates up to her capability and Kimmie manages to fully rotate her 3A and a 3-3, I

I disagree that Sasha has "splatfest"--she seldom falls three times as did Alissa in a few comptetitions this season--also Kimmie...so saying if "alissa skates up to her capability" would be more of a question--if "Alissa controls her splatfests, she could win" and then probably only is Sasha has a mistake. If all skate clean, Sasha will win--if all make mistakes, Sasha will wn. If Sasha makes a mistake, and Kimmie and Alissa don't, they have a change to win depending on the quality of their skate (i.e. a slow cautious skate, even in no faults might not do it.)

Just unfair to label Sasha as unable to lay down clean skates when the other two have had downright disastrous skates to go with the good skates--in my mind no more predictable than Sasha.

Click to expand...

The difference being that Sasha has much more experience than either Alissa or Kimmie, she nore than the other two should be used to skating under pressure and be able to deal with it.. Alissa is not known for her consistancy, and I never said she was, BUT she turned in four very solid performances at SA and SC, what I was saying is that if she skates and Nats the way she did there she could be placed ahead of Sasha WHEN Sasha makes her usual mistakes. I NEVER said that I expect Alissa to skate clean, but she has shown that she can do it and if she does, she could beat Sasha.

pipsqueak · Jan 7, 2006

Helloooo, anybody out there?

I haven't read the whole thread..but helloooo...remember that Michelle did NOT win a gold at 2 different Olys, even when she was highly favored in at least the first one? Of course Sasha could "lose" by not winning the title.

RAMBLINGS: That said, I HOPE she does win the National title b/c, (like one or two other great American or Canadian skaters that I can think of who never "won" the thing they wanted most) she has a distinctive style and has put her "mark" forever as a stylist, artiste, or whatever you want to call it.....on competitive figure skating REGARDLESS of whether she ever wins a title or steps blade on the ice ever again. BUT, I don't think anything is a "given" in this business....remember--omg--we are talking about FIGURE SKATING, not bobsledding, or some similar "timed" event. IT has happened too often in skating championships of every sort that someone has a bad day on the very day that the next guy has his best never-to-be-repeated performance...and there is a huge upset. I don't think Sasha is in danger of NOT going to the Olympics, but yes, someone else could win the National title. Especially consider this...Sasha will have ALL the pressure on her to win, and no one else really has that...they have hopes and support from people all over, but they are "free" from expectation at this moment and Sasha is not. It's sort of the "recipe" for the unpressured guy to bust loose with that once-in-a-lifetime performance now, isn't it?

swannanoa54 · Jan 7, 2006

I'm at an 8. But I wanted to ask this.

What if (and it's a HUGE "if") Cohen doesn't pull it together because she has this title this year? What IF three other skaters by some unforeseen circumstance should outskate her completely leaving her in 3rd or 4th place? (Ok, that will NOT happen, but the ice is always slippery) What happens then to our Olympic team? The Champion is the only one guaranteed a spot on the Olympic team. The others are picked as we know.

So do they then give Kwan her "bye" based on their monitoring or tests whichever they are going to do. That leaves one place open. Do they then choose Cohen, which is the smart thing to do, instead of one of the three that outskated her? I was just thinking about this and wondering if Cohen might skate like she did at the '02 Olympics and would that hurt her.

Anyhow, I'm at an 8 with the 2 leftover being for the "upset".

orchid · Jan 7, 2006

Red Dog said:
Well, the door may have been open in the past, but it's WIDE open this time.

Yes, WIDE open. Never has Sasha been the "favorite" without Michelle. She said the Olpmpics has more pressure... hahaha

We'll see.

Meanwhile, Kimmie, Alissa and Bebe, Katy... are hungry. Bless the best and keep them on their feet.

Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

Mathman

heyang

R.D.

Doggygirl

mzheng

Vash01

R.D.

Ogre Mage

R.D.

Peggy

R.D.

kyla2

Mathman

Peggy

donnar0226

Joesitz (RIP)

dancindiva03

Match Penalty

pipsqueak

swannanoa54

orchid

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