Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

havanamesa1 · Jan 8, 2006

orchid said:
Meanwhile, Kimmie, Alissa and Bebe, Katy... are hungry. Bless the best and keep them on their feet.

Hmm... although unlikely, I wonder what the USFSA would do if Katy were to win, followed by Emily and Bebe? Would the USFSA really send Katy (per its rules about an automatic spot for the Nats champion) and favor Emily and Bebe over Sasha, Alyssa, Kimmie, or Michelle (with a bye) for the two other Olympic spots? Would the USFSA think that an Olympic team composed of Katy, Emily, and Bebe more likely give the US more chances of medaling over a team composed of Sasha, Alyssa, Kimmie, or Kwan?

Jaana · Jan 8, 2006

I don´t think that Sasha will be skating any differently now that Kwan is not there. After all, this is not the most important competition of the year. Sasha just needs to skate well enough to be selected for the team. Of course it would be great if Sasha wins at US Nationals, but it is not a good idea to go all out and give one´s best performance of the season at US Nationals...

Skate Sandee · Jan 8, 2006

IMHO Sasha is a lock for the title. The only remote scenario that could upset that is if she has a MAJOR meltdown (a la Kwan i 97) COMBINED with a career-making performance by one of the other ladies. The chances of both those things happening is not very high.

And Sasha has never had a meltdown at Nationals. She's always made an error, but only one or two. Frankly, I think she has a comfortable 1 fall advantage even if the other ladies skate perfectly. Of course it's COP, but the PCS is subjective and will rule the day in Sasha's favor if she gives a sub-par technical performance.

Mathman · Jan 8, 2006

I disagree with Jaana about the importance of U.S. Nationals to Sasha's career. Considering how well Irina is skating, the Olympic championship is a long shot for Sasha, nor is there any guarantee about Worlds. IMHO it would be a big boost for Sasha's long-term prospects to have at least one major championship on her resume, and this (U.S. Nationals) is probably her best chance.

MM

Mathman · Jan 8, 2006

havanamesa1 said:
Hmm... although unlikely, I wonder what the USFSA would do if Katy were to win, followed by Emily and Bebe? Would the USFSA really send Katy (per its rules about an automatic spot for the Nats champion) and favor Emily and Bebe over Sasha, Alyssa, Kimmie, or Michelle (with a bye) for the two other Olympic spots?

Hehe, I hope that's exactly what happens. Out with the old, in with the new! I'm tired of the same-old Kimmie and Alissa. Give the new kids a chance. :agree:

MM

Ogre Mage · Jan 8, 2006

Skate Sandee said:
And Sasha has never had a meltdown at Nationals. She's always made an error, but only one or two. Frankly, I think she has a comfortable 1 fall advantage even if the other ladies skate perfectly.

This is my thinking also -- it would take 2 major mistakes (falls) from Sasha plus a career-making, perfect skate from someone else for an upset. The chance of one of these things happening is somewhat unlikely but possible; the chance of both happening is remote. The situation reminds me of 1999 U.S. Nationals, when Michelle Kwan was clearly the class of the field and had no serious competition for the title.

SkateFan4Life · Jan 8, 2006

Let's face it, if Sasha does NOT win at Nationals this year, she will have nobody but herself to blame. She has been the perpetual bridesmaid to Michelle at Nationals, coming close but not quite winning the title, and now that Michelle has withdrawn, the path is clear for her to win.

The judges expect Sasha to win, the fans expect Sasha to win, the media expects Sasha to win, the USFSA expects Sasha to win, most likely all of her competitors expect Sasha to win, and Sasha herself expects to win.

On a scale of 1 to 10 - she's a 10.

~Muffin~ · Jan 8, 2006

This thread should be called, Sasha; coronation or condemnation. :rofl:

SkateFan4Life · Jan 8, 2006

~Muffin~ said:
This thread should be called, Sasha; coronation or condemnation.

OK, I get your drift, but I don't think anybody here is condemming Sasha. We are just expressing our opinions on this subject.

BravesSkateFan · Jan 8, 2006

What if (and it's a HUGE "if") Cohen doesn't pull it together because she has this title this year? What IF three other skaters by some unforeseen circumstance should outskate her completely leaving her in 3rd or 4th place?

I don't think the USFS would let that happen. The judges would inflate her scores enough to keep her on the podium. I have no doubt about that.

orchid · Jan 8, 2006

SkateFan4Life said:
Let's face it, if Sasha does NOT win at Nationals this year, she will have nobody but herself to blame. She has been the perpetual bridesmaid to Michelle at Nationals, coming close but not quite winning the title, and now that Michelle has withdrawn, the path is clear for her to win.

The judges expect Sasha to win, the fans expect Sasha to win, the media expects Sasha to win, the USFSA expects Sasha to win, most likely all of her competitors expect Sasha to win, and Sasha herself expects to win. .

This is exactly why I believe problems may develop. Sasha has never really Been the favorite, the "one to beat". Never a National champion with others chasing her for the title.

Her composure in this place has never been tested. Being perfectly practiced is one thing, but to deal with this type of pressure is nothing John Nicks can teach

You have to believe all the skaters recognize this and are hungry for a title..

slutskayafan21 · Jan 8, 2006

orchid said:
This is exactly why I believe problems may develop. Sasha has never really Been the favorite, the "one to beat". Never a National champion with others chasing her for the title.

Actually I believe many were picking her to win both the 2004 Nationals and Worlds. At the very least, if she was not the favorite going in, she became the favorite after winning the short program for both events, and she faltered under the pressure in the long both times.

orchid · Jan 8, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Actually I believe many were picking her to win both the 2004 Nationals and Worlds. At the very least, if she was not the favorite going in, she became the favorite after winning the short program for both events, and she faltered under the pressure in the long both times.

Duly noted> I'll clarify. Sasha has never been the Champion, the one to beat.
Only the favorite to beat the Champion.

slutskayafan21 · Jan 8, 2006

orchid said:
Duly noted> I'll clarify. Sasha has never been the Champion, the one to beat.
Only the favorite to beat the Champion.

Fair enough. :bow:

LBC · Jan 8, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Actually I believe many were picking her to win both the 2004 Nationals and Worlds. At the very least, if she was not the favorite going in, she became the favorite after winning the short program for both events, and she faltered under the pressure in the long both times.

Things were different in 2004. She had just split from Tarosava. She had come off 2 bad competitions in Marshall's and GPF. Her confidence level wasn't really that high. She didn't have a total meltdown in either of those performances. That is a minor faulter under pressure. The same performances will win her Nats this year. I also have to think that Sasha has learned from those experiences.

orchid · Jan 9, 2006

LBC said:
Things were different in 2004. She had just split from Tarosava. She had come off 2 bad competitions in Marshall's and GPF. Her confidence level wasn't really that high. She didn't have a total meltdown in either of those performances. That is a minor faulter under pressure. The same performances will win her Nats this year. I also have to think that Sasha has learned from those experiences.

Hmmm, what was the excuse for 2005, 2003, 2002 ? 2006 might be something as, "due to my injury, I didn''t skate in many competitions".

Sasha's nerves have never been tested like this. The fact that this is an Olympic year as well, can only increase the pressure.

R.D. · Jan 9, 2006

Sasha's nerves have never been tested like this. The fact that this is an Olympic year as well, can only increase the pressure.

That's my entire point. :yes:

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 9, 2006

Having pressure is normal. Dealing with pressure is where the skater is at.

Joe

SkateFan4Life · Jan 9, 2006

orchid said:
This is exactly why I believe problems may develop. Sasha has never really Been the favorite, the "one to beat". Never a National champion with others chasing her for the title.

Her composure in this place has never been tested. Being perfectly practiced is one thing, but to deal with this type of pressure is nothing John Nicks can teach

You have to believe all the skaters recognize this and are hungry for a title..

I respectfully disagree with you. Sasha was the favorite in 2004, as she had won the short program, and she pretty much threw away the title with a sloppy long program. She was also favored to win the World title that year, as she again won the short program, but she made several errors in her long program and had to settle for the silver medal.

Sasha has an unfortunate record of succumbing to pressure and not handling her nerves well. As a result, she tends to make a few errors in her long programs, just enough errors to keep her out of first place. Please, I'm not criticizing the girl, I'm just stating the facts.

Sasha will go into Nationals as the overwhelming favorite, as a multi-time National medalist, and two-time World silver medalist. How she handles this pressure will probably determine which medal she takes home next week.

orchid · Jan 9, 2006

SkateFan4Life said:
I respectfully disagree with you. Sasha was the favorite in 2004, as she had won the short program, and she pretty much threw away the title with a sloppy long program. She was also favored to win the World title that year, as she again won the short program, but she made several errors in her long program and had to settle for the silver medal.

Sasha has an unfortunate record of succumbing to pressure and not handling her nerves well. As a result, she tends to make a few errors in her long programs, just enough errors to keep her out of first place. Please, I'm not criticizing the girl, I'm just stating the facts.

Sasha will go into Nationals as the overwhelming favorite, as a multi-time Nationa
l medalist, and two-time World silver medalist. How she handles this pressure will probably determine which medal she takes home next week.

I will respectfully repeat myself " Sasha has NEVER been the US Champion, the "one to beat". She has perinneially been the favorite to challenge MIchelle.

This week no Michelle, Sasha has NEVER been in this position, she has no experience with nerves, pressure and expectations as the she is this week.

We and She cannot know how she will handle all that..until Thursday evening. I expect a bang of a short program and then... ???

Now to anyone else, I cannot possible stress any more that Sashs has never been the Champion, don't we know this? The Champion is always "the one to beat".

Regards,

Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

havanamesa1

Jaana

Skate Sandee

Mathman

Mathman

Ogre Mage

SkateFan4Life

Guest

~Muffin~

Match Penalty

SkateFan4Life

Guest

BravesSkateFan

orchid

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

orchid

slutskayafan21

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LBC

orchid

R.D.

Joesitz (RIP)

SkateFan4Life

Guest

orchid

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