The REAL dark horses in Turin | Golden Skate

The REAL dark horses in Turin

Vash01

Medalist
Joined
Jul 31, 2003
Let me explain what I mean by 'REAL' dark horses. They are skaters that are not expected to win the OGM, nor are considered even contenders for the gold, but could surprise everyone (Sarah Hughes, for example in 2002- you get the idea).

Here is my list.

Ladies: Michelle (if she makes the Oly team), Carolina Kostner (skated poorly all year) and perhaps Miki Ando. Sasha is definitely a contender for OGM.

Men: Johnny Weir. I think he is the only one of the top men that is not even considered a contender for the gold at this point. Lambiel, Buttle, Joubert, and of course Plushenko are all considered contenders (some may disagree about Joubert). I don't see Takahashi beating all of these guys. Past dark horse was Urmanov in 1994, when Boitano, Petrenko, Browning were upset by him. Lysacek could be on the dark horse list, but I like Takahashi's chances a little better than his. I don't see Takahashi beating top 4-5 men at this time.

Pairs: Zhang & Zhang. I don't see them as OGM contenders but they could actually win which makes them dark horses by my definition. T&M have a chronic medical problem (gall bladder for Tania) and S&Z are coming off an injury. If S&Z skate there, they will be considered contenders for the gold, so I am not putting them on the dark horse list. Some may question putting Michelle on that list for the same reason. However, she has not competed under the COP and that makes her more of a dark horse in my mind. I don't see Pet-Tik winning even if everyone else bombs. The judges would simply not give them the OGM.

Ice dance: Reluctantly I decided on Belbin & Agosto as the dark horses. This is a discipline where dark horses are rare, the only exception being Grishchuk & Platov in 1994. I don't see any way G&G or D&L or any other couple winning the OGM, barring injury to N&K.

Vash
 

millie

Medalist
Joined
Nov 1, 2004
T he dark horse in the ladies is going to be Rochette. With all the talk about the other top ladies, Rochette is going to slide in and do her best and probably win.(a girl can dream).:)
 

rain

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 29, 2003
Dark horses, hmmmm.

Ladies: With the Japanese ladies expected to challenge Slutskaya, I'd have to say that real dark horses would include Rochette, the third American skater, whoever she is, and Kostner.

Men: Weir, Buttle, Sandhu, Takahashi

Dance: Personally, I don't think anyone has a shot at gold except N/K. In the medals hunt, I think D/L, Del/S and the Lithuanians are dark horses.

Pairs: Pet/Tik, Pang/Tong, Marcoux and Buntin (Can).
 

Frau Muller

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 1, 2005
Dark Horses:

Ladies - #3 American Lady or FUMIE SUGURI

Men - Chenjiang LI, Kevin Van der Perren, the E-man (if he happens to be 'on' in Turin!)

Pairs - Savchenko/Szolkowy

Dance - Tanith & Ben...I can see it now...and if they win, what a made-for-TV-movie their story will be! also - Fusar-Poli/Margalio, depending on how Italian Natls go this week & on their Code of Points tally. I have this sneaking suspicion about F-P/M....
 
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dwiggin3

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 16, 2005
Here is a list of the ISU's personal best COP scores.

I've atatched them as far down as Emily Hughes (Bebe was farther down). Note that they contain 8 US ladies, including Cohn, Kwan, Czsiny, Corwin, Meisner, Nikodinov and Hughes - all ladies (except Corwin and Nikodinov) who have legit spots at the team.

The highest score overall is Slute. The higest US lady is Cohn (who is right behind Slute).

Kwan is 22.86 points off Slute's personal best and it was earned at last years Worlds - a compitition that everyone agree was Kwan's worst performance in years AND it included a fall. Hughes - considered to be a contender for the team, is 27.31 points behind Kwan's personal best and 50.17 behind Slute. (Oh, and to my knowlege, Kwan has only competed once under COP and was still able to produce a score above Czsiny, Meisner and Hughes who have skated several times under COP)

http://www.isufs.org/isujsstat/pbslto.htm

Cup of Russia
Irina SLUTSKAYA
01.11.2003
126.48
71.12
197.60

MasterCard Skate Canada Int.
Sasha COHEN
17.12.2005
125.24
64.38
189.62

Mao ASADA
01.11.2003
123.99
58.20
182.19

MasterCard Skate Canada Int.
Shizuka ARAKAWA
13.12.2003
120.06
62.02
182.08

ISU Grand Prix Final
Fumie SUGURI
25.10.2003
120.09
58.68
178.77

Smart Ones Skate America
Jennifer KIRK
19.03.2005
113.98
61.22
175.20

World Championships
Michelle KWAN
26.11.2005
116.61
57.51
174.12

ISU Junior Grand Prix Final
Yu-Na KIM
19.03.2005
113.29
60.82
174.11

World Championships
Carolina KOSTNER
26.11.2005
111.54
60.76
172.30

Cup of Russia
Miki ANDO
20.11.2004
113.08
55.64
168.72

Trophee Eric Bompard
Joannie ROCHETTE
29.10.2005
109.78
58.54
168.32

MasterCard Skate Canada Int.
Alissa CZISNY
19.02.2005
108.78
58.02
166.80

Four Continents Championship
Yoshie ONDA
01.11.2003
107.60
57.62
165.22

MasterCard Skate Canada Int.
Julia SEBESTYEN
13.12.2003
104.62
60.54
165.16

ISU Grand Prix Final
Elena LIASHENKO
19.03.2005
105.46
59.63
165.09

World Championships
Elena SOKOLOVA
19.03.2005
106.99
56.99
163.98

World Championships
Susanna PÖYKIÖ
01.11.2003
98.69
63.90
162.59

MasterCard Skate Canada Int.
Yukina OTA
17.12.2005
105.78
56.04
161.82

ISU Grand Prix Final
Yukari NAKANO
30.10.2004
101.90
57.76
159.66

MasterCard Skate Canada Int.
Cynthia PHANEUF
25.10.2003
102.29
54.66
156.95

Smart Ones Skate America
Amber CORWIN
19.11.2005
110.80
44.92
155.72

Trophee Eric Bompard
Kimmie MEISSNER
13.11.2004
101.02
53.14
154.16

Cup of China
Viktoria VOLCHKOVA
27.08.2004
97.98
54.42
152.40

JGP Courchevel
Meagan DUHAMEL
22.10.2005
99.01
51.97
150.98

ISU JGP SBC Trophy
Aki SAWADA
23.10.2004
95.88
53.62
149.50

SmartOnes Skate America
Angela NIKODINOV
03.03.2005
96.47
51.42
147.89

World Junior Championships
Emily HUGHES
05.11.2005
98.20
47.72
145.92
 

Doggygirl

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2003
My Dark Horse Wish List....

Here are my faves as Dark Horses:

Ladies: Fumie for a medal

Mens: Johnny for a medal

Pairs: S/S (Germany) for a medal

Dance: Anything that involves surprise and lots of movement in the standings between the 3 dances resulting in a podium. ;) I am an admitted dimwit when it comes to dance (but want to learn more appreciation for it) so please take this in the "tongue in cheek" spirit it was intended. I would actually love a good chocolate nail biter in all diciplines!!

DG
 

JOHIO2

Medalist
Joined
Jul 29, 2003
Doggygirl said:
I would actually love a good chocolate nail biter in all diciplines!!
DG
I KNEW I should have applied for a patent for those chocolate press-on nails! (Or should that be a copyright for the IDEA?)

Well, if you're gonna chew on fingernails, they might as well be tasty!
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Dwiggins, that's very interesting. (Your scores have been shifted down by one skater, however -- Sasha got 197.60 at Skate canada 2003. In fact, she got scores inthe 197s three times that year. Mao got 189.62 in the GP Final 2005. Etc.)

Too bad Jenny Kirk retired. Her 178.77 is right up there. (She lost that contest to Sasha, however, IIRC, generating quite a bit of wuzrobbing at the time.)

MM
 
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