How Sasha can beat Irina

Mathman · Jan 18, 2006

By the numbers... How does U.S. Champion Sasha Cohen stack up against World Champion and Olympic favorite Irina Slutskaya? Here are the base values of the technical elements from Sasha's LP at Nationals, compared to Irina's lights-out skate at Cup of Russia.

Jumps

Irina

3Lz -- 6.0
3S+3Lo+2T -- 10.8
3F -- 5.5
3F+2T -- 7.5
3 Lo -- 5.5
3T -- 4.4
2A -- 3.6

Total: 43.3

Sasha

3Lz+2T+2Lo -- 8.8
3F -- 5.5
3Lo -- 5.0
3F+2T -- 7.5
3T+3S Seq -- 7.5 (-2.43 GOE)
2A -- 3.6
3S -- 5.0

Total: 42.9

Each lady presented a 7-triple program. Irina achieved hers with a triple/triple -- in fact, with a triple/triple/double. Sasha did a triple/triple sequence of considerably less base value. Still, when the points are added up, Irina is ahead by only four tenths of a point.

Spins

Irina

FCSp4 -- 3.0
LSp4 -- 2.4
CoSp3 -- 2.5
CCoSp3 -- 3.0

Total: 10.9

Sasha

CCoSp4 -- 3.5
LSp4 -- 2.4
FSSp4 -- 3.0
CCoSp3 -- 3.0

Total: 11.9

Sasha wins by 1.0 points, thanks to 3 level 4s and 1 level 3. Now Sasha is leading by 0.6 points overall in base value.

Steps

Irina

Spiral 4 -- 3.4
St. Line 2 -- 2.3

Total: 5.7

Sasha

Spiral 4 -- 3.4
Circular 4 -- 3.1

Total: 6.5

Sasha wins! with a grand total of 61.3 to Irina's 59.9 in technical score base value.

Now it's up to those pesky subjective marks, the GOEs and PCSs.

Doggygirl · Jan 18, 2006

Thanks as always Mathman...

...for the terrific analysis!! The Oly's will sure be exciting to watch.

DG

euterpe · Jan 18, 2006

You're forgetting about the PCS scores. Irina will get scores from 7.75-8.25, and Sasha, 7.25-7.75. In the FS, that adds up to .5 extra per component = 2.5 times 1.8 = 4.5 points.

Sorry, but Irina wins.

Frau Muller · Jan 18, 2006

Irina will definitely be getting the higher PCS scores, judging by her most recent performances & int'l judgements.

Let's not forget: US Natls scores shouldn't be taken seriously as an indicator of how American skaters will do in Torino -- those were inflated by USA-only judges. [Neither do the Japanese Natls over-inflated scores for Suguri, in particular, mean much.]

brinababy87 · Jan 18, 2006

In that case, it will depend which lady is "on" that night, which will result in higher presentation marks.

Jeez... this is really high pressure for Sasha to finally deliver the way she wants.

And BTW, I think Sasha intended to do a Level 4 spin last at nationals. The first edge change wasn't quite twice around.

gracefulswan · Jan 18, 2006

sasha will get higher PCS b/c her program is much better choreographed by far. her program components should tell the tale as button and fleming said on ABC. her posture, lightness, and ease of movement so much contrasts with the lumbering awkwardness of irina whose posture leaves much to be desired.

also sasha will probably have all level 4 spins come the olympics. (only 1 out of the 4 at nationals was a level 3) her spirals also trumps irina in terms of positioning and variety. irina's are almost all catchfoot and biellmans. sasha has the best spins and spirals in the world.

i would say sasha has a darn good shot at the gold.

the numbers do add up and sasha's base value was a bit better than irina's at COR... oh, very inflated, right?

mzheng · Jan 18, 2006

I don't think Irina's fw will be lower than Sahsha's fw by the time Olympics around.

flowjo35 · Jan 18, 2006

mzheng said:
I don't think Irina's fw will be lower than Sahsha's fw by the time Olympics around.

I think Irina will be going for higher everything for the olympics.

LBC · Jan 18, 2006

A good indicator will be Europeans to see if Irina has changed anything. I expect her to have her footwork up to a level 3. If you check the base values in the SP they are almost the same. Sasha has a 31.0 and Irina a 30.8. I am sure the Cohen camp is hoping the variety helps her with some of the judges in PCS who have been watching beillman after beillman with everybody. On paper I think they will be about the same going in on the tech side. Sasha has got a chance now.

mzheng · Jan 18, 2006

LBC said:
A good indicator will be Europeans to see if Irina has changed anything. I expect her to have her footwork up to a level 3. If you check the base values in the SP they are almost the same. Sasha has a 31.0 and Irina a 30.8. I am sure the Cohen camp is hoping the variety helps her with some of the judges in PCS who have been watching beillman after beillman with everybody. On paper I think they will be about the same going in on the tech side. Sasha has got a chance now.

I think Irina won't put everything out there at European. It is a relative weak field compare to CoC and GPF where she faced a field of Japanese girls....remember she was very secretive at Japanese cheese fest said she won't reveal her real version until her first competetion.....base line you don't compare Nationals point with internationals point. The callers are different, something ratified here may be not there.
Yeah, Sasha has a chance, so as Arakawa and Fummie.

SkateFan4Life · Jan 18, 2006

Excellent analysis, Mathman! However, not to nitpick, but you are premising this with the scenario that both Irina and Sasha skate PERFECT long programs. That's easier said than done, with all due respect to these wonderful skaters.

Remember Salt Lake City? Sasha fell on her triple lutz/double combination, and Irina nearly fell on her triple flip and had several rocky jump landings.

In my opinion, as talented as Sasha is, the only way she can win in Torino is for her to skate two absolutely beautiful programs, error-free (or near-perfect) and for Irina to provide some assistance by making a costly error in her short and/or long programs. If Irina falls on her short program triple jump combination, that could well open the door for Sasha to win, or if Irina makes two or more errors in her long program, that could open the door for Sasha.

kyla2 · Jan 18, 2006

Great!!

Great analysis! But the truth is, it all depends on who delivers the planned program. In short, who delivers the goods. Part of me wants to see Michelle win, part of me wants to see Sasha do well, and the other third of me wants Irina to do well because she has worked her a-s off. I would also love for Fumie and Shizuka to do well. The problem is they can't all win. If the best skater that day wins, I will have no complaints.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 18, 2006

I watched both of them closely in Moscow Worlds. Sasha was right up there for a win but that elusive 3x3 wasn't there, and Europeans demand it.

However after watching the brilliance of Mao Asada in the GP Final, I believe Irina is vulnerable and I now think the competition will be much closer in Torino than it was in Moscow.

Joe

orchid · Jan 18, 2006

Excellent Mathman, but let's not forget the skaters from the Far East.

Sasha, even though "ill" was so d e t e r mined to stand on her feet , for once, Is she capable of this again ? I can't bet on it.

I think the comparision of Irina to Sasha is in large, a patroitic desire to have an American lady in neck-to-neck competition with someone.

Frankly, my bet is on Kimmie, to beat the best in qualifying, upset the favorites. Then, Fumie will pour it on, in the short, Kmmie and Irina too. Sasha wii wonder why her flexibility isn't placing her into 4th.

Then comes the long. all the skaters regroup and try to outplace each other, rather than skating theri best. I see the ugly, although popular in use, catchfoot spiral, marked less than in the past. Darn it, Irina counts on that.

Here comes a clean, beautifully executed program, no flaying of the arms (and legs) soft, gentle landings on the jumps. No clunk the toe then jar the ankle.

I believe the favorites in this thread, may step to the podium, but not for gold.

Piel · Jan 18, 2006

There is no qualifying round at the Olympics.

Ogre Mage · Jan 18, 2006

Really great analysis, Mathman. All others have mentioned, Irina will get high PCS scores. In the past, in some areas I found this justified (skating skills, performance/execution), while in others I wondered what program the judges were looking at (choreography, transitions). She also has sheer speed and stroking power on her side which tends to raise her TES. However, I haven't seen Irina's current programs so I reserve judgement as to how she is doing.

Sasha has an excellent R&J LP this year which should hold her in good stead on the choreography, transitions and interpetation mark. As for skating skills, she ceded that to Irina long ago. How well she does on performance/execution of course depends largely on how she skates. Generally speaking, Irina has a better history of strong performances.

Especially given that she is the reigning World Champion, I suspect Irina has at least a 1 triple advantage on everyone except for Sasha. Irina is going to get the benefit of the doubt in a close or even semi-close call. I think Irina has an advantage on Sasha, too, but it is narrower than 1 triple. As a 2-time and reigning World Silver Medalist and current U.S. Nats Champ, Sasha is the best positioned to upset Irina's march to the OGM.

Vash01 · Jan 19, 2006

US nationals scores were ridiculously inflated. I don't think they can be compared with worlds scores. I would question those levels too. Sasha has great spins but so does Irina. In PCS Irina should receive higher marks for her edges and speed. OTOH I don't expect to see a Moscow like- once in a lifetime- performance by Irina in Torino. However, Sasha is not the one I would count on to produce a performance like that. Leave that to a younger skater like Kimmie Meissner. She may be the only 16 year old in these Olympics, which means she could be the favorite for the OGM.

Vash

euterpe · Jan 19, 2006

I agree: ignore Nationals scoring. Sasha is not going to get PCS scores in the 8s, but rest assured that Irina, even if she isn't her best, will get PCS scores higher than Sasha's, and that will seal the deal unless Irina has a complete meltdown.

I would bet that both skaters will make mistakes in their FS at Torino. But Irina has far superior speed, and she won't allow an early mistake to affect the rest of her performance.

FreeKatie · Jan 19, 2006

I think both Irina and Sasha will plan as much difficulty as possible for Torino. With Irina the question is her health and for Sasha, will she finally skate 2 clean programs? Either way I think it will be very close if they skate relatively clean, then there is always room for an upset. Arakawa and some of the others are capable of sneaking in there. Not sure about MK, she's had enough time off the ice to peruse the new rule book, so let's hope she at least puts up a good fight.

angelika · Jan 19, 2006

I just want to hear Irina's moan again.....
Guys, you remember what she said after last OLY and lost to
Mao Asada at GPF in Japan?

SAID A LOT OF EXCUSES!!! sick, jet lag, I did the same thing in the oly, she is only a child, this cometiton isnt important etc........

I'm looking forward to seeing how she is going to excuse after losing.......

How Sasha can beat Irina

Mathman

Doggygirl

euterpe

Frau Muller

brinababy87

gracefulswan

mzheng

flowjo35

LBC

mzheng

SkateFan4Life

Guest

kyla2

Joesitz (RIP)

orchid

Piel

On Edge

Ogre Mage

Vash01

euterpe

FreeKatie

angelika

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