How Sasha can beat Irina

Ogre Mage · Jan 20, 2006

Sasha and Irina are an interesting comparison because the strengths of one are the weaknesses of the other. Irina's stroking, edging, speed and jumps are her best assets and these same things are Cohen's flaws. As I have said in the past, from the skate down Irina is a great skater and in the minds of some skating purists, that's all that matters. When you compare what goes on above the skate, however, Sasha makes Irina look about as graceful as a cow.

People will see what they want to see. Dick and Peggy always comment about the perfect position, line and amplitude in Sasha's spiral and don't mention that it is often slow and lacking ice coverage. But I've also seen some praise the power and depth of Irina's spiral and then downplay the importance of body position. If aesthetics are no longer important, then I will stop watching skating.

curious · Jan 20, 2006

Joesitz said:
Sasha, imo, is as good if not better than Irina. Everyone knows of Irina's serious illness and Sasha's flu is probably already gone so any sympathetic votes from the judges is in Irina's court.

The roar of the crowd will go to Irina (notwithstanding a bigger roar for Carolina). She is by far the most popular skater in Europe, which imo, carries some weight.

The WOW factors are the answers: Irina's high jumps v. Sasha's high extensions. This also carries some weight.

The contest is decided upon the Technical scores v. the PCS scores and how much each of the skaters will be held up in their weaker of the two.

It will be close if both ladies skate clean. How much the Georgian girl and maybe Kimmie will act as spoilers for the teenage gold is a wait and see.
The Japanese ladies should do a silver and bronze without the spoilers.

For all the Kwaniacs (including me): She will skate beautifully but will lack any technical distinction for a medal.

Joe

Well,you can't expect sasha to have a bigger reception than Irina in Italy or compare a casual flu with a serious illness(irina does not need sympathy votes like certain skater lol!) She is the best european skater,world champ having a great season,that's why she is the best and fave for oly gold(like it or not lol!) Pretty lines and moves does not make you a better skater especially when you can't skate a clean program much less outjump the best skater in the world Irina :biggrin:

mzheng · Jan 20, 2006

curious said:
of course the roar is going to be for Irina. she is the best european skater and world champ lol! you can't be better than the best skater in the world when you continue to make stupid mistakes and can't outjump her

Don't

too early.

This Olympics can't afford any more scandals.

Kwanford Wife · Jan 20, 2006

curious said:
of course the roar is going to be for Irina. she is the best european skater and world champ lol! you can't be better than the best skater in the world when you continue to make stupid mistakes and can't outjump her

What's a sure sign that the "End is Near?" Not only do I agree with curious, but the :biggrin:

didn't piss me off... Is there a doctor in the house?

Mathman · Jan 20, 2006

mzheng said:
Statisticly will be 50%*50%*50%*50%*50%*50%=2% chance, assume each has 50% chance of skating a clean SP and/or LP. Am I right mm? I'm rusty on math now.

Hmm..let's see. Suppose you never fall on footwork, spins, etc., and are 90% on your jumping passes. So...the probability of completiung 10 jump elements in a row (3 in the short and 7 in the long) is .9^10 = .349.

So the probability of three given skaters all doing this is .349^3 = .042.

The book is open. Anyone want to take Irina, Sasha and Shizuka at 23 to 1? :laugh:

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 20, 2006

Mathman said:
Hmm..let's see. Suppose you never fall on footwork, spins, etc., and are 90% on your jumping passes. So...the probability of completiung 10 jump elements in a row (3 in the short and 7 in the long) is .9^10 = .349.

So the probability of three given skaters all doing this is .349^3 = .042.

The book is open. Anyone want to take Irina, Sasha and Shizuka at 23 to 1?

I'm going for Carolina, Kimmie and the Georgian Girl.

Joe

ladysarahchatto · Jan 22, 2006

Ogre Mage said:
When you compare what goes on above the skate, however, Sasha makes Irina look about as graceful as a cow.

Imo the general viewing Olympic audience will know little about edging, though they may notice the difference in speed between Cohen and Slutskaya-or perhaps watching on tv they will not. Anyway, if by some miracle both skate clean and Irina wins, and Sasha takes silver I believe much of the viewing public will wonder why the seemingly 'more pleasing to the eye' skater did not win-and I refer to Sasha's skating not her looks.

slutskayafan21 · Jan 22, 2006

Sorry Mathman but you are joking right? You are comparing scores from U.S Nationals to an international event? :rofl:

I gaurantee Sasha would NOT get the same TES score at the Olympics for the same skate, no U.S skater will get the same scores in either TES or PCS for their performances there at the Olympics.

Anyway it really is a two-women race for the gold in all probability.
It will take more than small mistakes for another women to bump either Cohen or Slutskaya down. An inspired Arakawa, Suguri, Kwan, or Kostner, at this point, will still be behind a slightly flawed Slutskaya or Cohen.

Mathman · Jan 22, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Sorry Mathman but you are joking right? ... I guarantee Sasha would NOT get the same TES score at the Olympics for the same skate...

Well, that's why I included only the base values for the technical elemets in my first post. I do think that a triple flip is worth 5.5 points, whether in the U.S. or overseas.

I suppose there could have been a little fudging on the part of the caller at Nationals with respect to the levels of spins and spirals. But with the base values for elements virtually even between Sasha and Irina, if both execute their programs cleanly, it all comes down to the GOEs and PCSs.

If we cmpare Sasha's GOEs and PCSs from her only international event this year, Trophee Eric Bompard, with her scores from Nationals, it goes like this:

TEB:

Total GOE = -1.80
Total PCS = 56.20

U.S. Nationals:

Total GOE = +7.49
Total PCS = 65.29

So, yeah, the U.S. judges liked Sasha better than the international judges did, at least in these two performances.

MM

LBC · Jan 22, 2006

Sasha got a 124 last year at worlds when she messed up the same sequence. I think 2 footed a jump too. Got a 62 PCS. Had a +4 goe. I would have to think she would have gotten similar numbers with this program since it was kind of skated the same way.

Sasha's base is 61.0 which is 3 pts. higher than TEB. Mainly spin levels and moving the 3F/2T to after the 2 min. mark.

If you give her a +4 goe(same as worlds) then she'd have a 65 tech. Give her the same PCS of 62. She'd have a 127.

slutskayafan21 · Jan 22, 2006

Mathman said:
Well, that's why I included only the base values for the technical elemets in my first post. I do think that a triple flip is worth 5.5 points, whether in the U.S. or overseas.

I suppose there could have been a little fudging on the part of the caller at Nationals with respect to the levels of spins and spirals. But with the base values for elements virtually even between Sasha and Irina, if both execute their programs cleanly, it all comes down to the GOEs and PCSs.

If we cmpare Sasha's GOEs and PCSs from her only international event this year, Trophee Eric Bompard, with her scores from Nationals, it goes like this:

TEB:

Total GOE = -1.80
Total PCS = 56.20

U.S. Nationals:

Total GOE = +7.49
Total PCS = 65.29

So, yeah, the U.S. judges liked Sasha better than the international judges did, at least in these two performances.

MM

True the element values should be mostly the same. I do question some of the values the judges give the spins and non-jump elements though. Rochette and Buttle did not get the same values for some of their spins and footwork at Worlds as they did at Canadian Nationals last year for example.

chuckm · Jan 22, 2006

Irina will get the high PCS scores, mostly in the 8s, while Sasha's will be mostly in the 7s. Irina has a much higher probability of skating a clean FS than Sasha. As long as Irina is not suffering a recurrence of symptoms from her disease, she should be able to beat Sasha, just as she did at '05 Worlds, even if her FS isn't quite as good as it was last year, because of the boost in both TES (for the upgraded 'Irina' elements) and PCS.

Pay no attention to Sasha's Nationals marks. She would NEVER get marks that high from ISU judges, certainly not for a so-so performance such as she gave at Nationals (even Dick and Peggy thought her performance was a bit flat and on the slow side).

orchid · Jan 23, 2006

chuckm said:
Irina will get the high PCS scores, mostly in the 8s, while Sasha's will be mostly in the 7s. Irina has a much higher probability of skating a clean FS than Sasha. As long as Irina is not suffering a recurrence of symptoms from her disease, she should be able to beat Sasha, just as she did at '05 Worlds, even if her FS isn't quite as good as it was last year, because of the boost in both TES (for the upgraded 'Irina' elements) and PCS.

Pay no attention to Sasha's Nationals marks. She would NEVER get marks that high from ISU judges, certainly not for a so-so performance such as she gave at Nationals (even Dick and Peggy thought her performance was a bit flat and on the slow side).

Yes, but, everyone, please don't forget the Japanese ladies !

i'm not sure Sasha or Irina is a lock for first place.

R.D. · Jan 23, 2006

Irina may not be a lock but she sure is a boulder. And boulders are HARD to move...

orchid · Jan 23, 2006

Red Dog said:
Irina may not be a lock but she sure is a boulder. And boulders are HARD to move...

Fair asessment. Irina yes, Sasha no. Playing upon your analogy, Sasha is tossing pebbles at the giant.
AND, Michelle, Kimmie, Fumie and Shiz are building there arsenal.

R.D. · Jan 23, 2006

orchid said:
Fair asessment. Irina yes, Sasha no. Playing upon your analogy, Sasha is tossing pebbles at the giant.
AND, Michelle, Kimmie, Fumie and Shiz are building there arsenal.

You said it better than I could...tossing pebbles at the giant. That's EXACTLY what Cohen is doing. In other words, I think she's just not strong enough to face up to the likes of Slutskaya. And if she caves into the pressure, maybe not even one or two of the others.

The others are building up their arsenal...yes they are. But remember, only one can throw at a time. They can't all push with their collective effort. It's all a question of who's got the biggest stone.

How Sasha can beat Irina

Ogre Mage

curious

mzheng

Kwanford Wife

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

ladysarahchatto

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

Mathman

LBC

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

chuckm

orchid

R.D.

orchid

R.D.

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