Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

Vash01 · Jan 28, 2006

I think Michelle can win the OGM in Torino. I had said it before her test skate too, but it depended on whether or not she would make the team.

Here is why.

She will have no pressure compared to Irina and Sasha who are the favorites. She will be in a position that Tara and Sarah were in, in 1998 and 2002, except that she has much better skating skills than these two young ladies.

Having been away from competition for the whole year, she will be hungry and she is going to feed off the roar she will get from the audience.

The test skate was probably more pressure filled than the US nationals would have been, so her ability to handle pressure has been tested at a different level. That will help her more at the Olympics than a win a USN would have.

In the past her best performances were at the US nationals. Since that did not happen, her best performance could be at the Olympics.

She has upgraded her programs to levels 3 and 4 spins and footwork, from what I read. So she will have base marks that are comparable to the top ladies.

Under the COP a 3-3 combination is not as important as it would have been under the 6.0. So the COP could actually help Michelle, even if she does not complete a 3-3.

Of course she has to compete with skaters other than Irina and Sasha. Shizuka and hometown girl Carolina could be in a similar situation. IMO Michelle has the mental toughness that no one else has, and she will pull it off.

Vash

anything_for_skating · Jan 28, 2006

Yes, she can, but I don't think that would be gold

Sk8harvest · Jan 28, 2006

For me the question revolves around how healthy Irina will be at the Olys, in light of her ongoing battle with her vasculitis and the side effects of the strong medicine she takes to keep it in remission. This year she has skated to a combined SP & LP score of 198 pts. Who else has come close the that score? I think Mao at the GP Final earned 189 pts - and of course she is not going to Torino. Most others' top ladies best scores are the in the 170s this year. So I am in the camp that believe's if anyone other than Irina wins the gold, it will be because she makes some uncharacteristic mistakes.

Having said that, is it possible for Michelle to win? Yes, Michelle is one of half a dozen ladies who can win. If she hadn't suffered the recent injuries to her hip and groin, I would have considered her a favorite for one of the steps on the podium. Would I like to see MK win - absolutely. But as a general fan of figure skating, I would also love to see Irina, Sasha, Shizuka or Fumie win, and I will be happy no matter who wins as long as the winner is the one who put in the best performance that night.

Tonichelle · Jan 28, 2006

the "roar" she will get? I've read that Americans haven't really shown interest in travelling to Turin... if that is the case and America is in teh minority in the stands will she still get that huge reaction? just asking, not knocking her. Is she still that popular over in Europe?

I don't think 4 triples and a smile will get her the gold medal even if Irina and Sasha buckle under pressure... Tara and Sarah won because of the amount of triples not just because others didn't bring their game with them...

R.D. · Jan 28, 2006

anything_for_skating said:
Yes, she can, but I don't think that would be gold

That sums up what I think. Is it POSSIBLE? Yes. Is it LIKELY? Heck no. But I won't count anyone out.

What MK should do is just go for it this time. If she doesn't, there's no way she's winning. Irina will just blow her out of the water. JMO.

attyfan · Jan 28, 2006

Tonichelle said:
the "roar" she will get? I've read that Americans haven't really shown interest in travelling to Turin... if that is the case and America is in teh minority in the stands will she still get that huge reaction? just asking, not knocking her. Is she still that popular over in Europe?

I don't think 4 triples and a smile will get her the gold medal even if Irina and Sasha buckle under pressure... Tara and Sarah won because of the amount of triples not just because others didn't bring their game with them...

First, I think it is likely she will have more audience support to feed off of than she had during her test skate, but I don't think it will be that much. This has little to do with Kwan's popularity (or lack thereof) in Europe generally, and everything (IMO) to do with the fact that the crowd will likely be supporting the "hometown (or home country) kid".

Second, Tara won due, in part, to the amount of triples, but Sarah definitely won only because the others didn't bring their game. Remember, Sarah was fourth after the SP, and she had never before defeated Irina in the FS portion of an event. If Michelle had brought her game to SLC, and simply not fallen, she would have come in at least second in the FS (enough to secure her the gold since she was first after the SP), and, if Irina had brought her game to SLC, she would have defeated Sarah, regardless of who was in first after the SP.

I agree that MK can't bring home an OGM with 4 triples, but since her FS and SP were something like 5 minutes apart, the fact that she could do them in such a short period of time shows that she has the stamina that bodes well for a minimum of 6 triples in her FS at Olys.

JonnyCoop · Jan 28, 2006

I'm wondering about that "roar of the crowd" myself. Elaborating on what Tonichelle mentioned -- only ONE of Michelle's 5 World titles was won in Europe, the other 4 were in North America -- and she BARELY squeaked out the one in Nice. She hasn't even competed in a GP event in Europe in I don't even know how many years. (10 would not be an unreasonable estimate).

That being said, sure, she's got a shot. But really more than anything, I'd just like to see her go out there and HAVE FUN, which she didn't do in either Nagano or SLC.

show 42 · Jan 28, 2006

Can she win.........absolutely.......no one has a lock on this competition.......42

anything_for_skating · Jan 28, 2006

Red Dog said:
I won't count anyone out.

:agree:

Misplaced Gymnast · Jan 28, 2006

Vash01 said:
I think Michelle can win the OGM in Torino. I had said it before her test skate too, but it depended on whether or not she would make the team.

Here is why.

She will have no pressure compared to Irina and Sasha who are the favorites. She will be in a position that Tara and Sarah were in, in 1998 and 2002, except that she has much better skating skills than these two young ladies.

Vash

I respectfully disagree...I think she'll be under the microscope to see if her body is holding up, i.e. "Can she or can't she?" Sasha will be under the same microscope as a candidate for gold.

The one who seems pressure-free at this point is Meissner. We've heard next to nothing about her since Nationals. Will Meissner be the teenager who sneaks in to take it all this year?

kyla2 · Jan 28, 2006

Imo

I think Michelle can win and anything can happen. It depends if she is well enough to bring her A game with her, and if Irina and Sasha are on their A games. I wish her the very best and I am always in her corner. I wish there could be three gold medals-one for Michelle, one for Irina and one for Sasha. They are all wonderful skaters. I am just thriled she will be there for one more Olympics and whatever jappens, i want her to skate really well, win the gold or not.

slutskayafan21 · Jan 28, 2006

Hugely unlikely. Just because a U.S article says she does level 3 elements, does not mean they really are to technical specialists at the Olympics. In fact the article never specified her levels though. As for her doing a 6-triple free program I would be surprised, and even then she wont win unless Irina and Sasha both have major mistakes.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 28, 2006

Michelle Kwan will skate beautifully. She is not under any pressure but maybe wanting a medal of any color, but then which skater doesn't?

I believe she will be in the final six to skate.:agree:

If she does a 3x3 I believe she will be on the podium:thumbsup:

If she does two 3x3s she will win depending on the honesty of the judges :clap:

.

You all know you don't have to be the best in the world to win the Olympics, and so win or lose La Kwan is for me the best in the world. :love:

Joe

slutskayafan21 · Jan 28, 2006

Joesitz said:
Michelle Kwan will skate beautifully. She is not under any pressure but maybe wanting a medal of any color, but then which skater doesn't?

I believe she will be in the final six to skate.:agree:

If she does a 3x3 I believe she will be on the podium:thumbsup:

If she does two 3x3s she will win depending on the honesty of the judges .

You all know you don't have to be the best in the world to win the Olympics, and so win or lose La Kwan is for me the best in the world.

Joe

two 3x3s?

I will be shocked if we see even 1 3/3 from her. If she gets through a program of 6 triples semi-clean that would be a thrill for her, regardless the result.

swannanoa54 · Jan 28, 2006

Misplaced Gymnast said:
I respectfully disagree...I think she'll be under the microscope to see if her body is holding up, i.e. "Can she or can't she?" Sasha will be under the same microscope as a candidate for gold.

The one who seems pressure-free at this point is Meissner. We've heard next to nothing about her since Nationals. Will Meissner be the teenager who sneaks in to take it all this year?

Let me go out on a limb and say that I don't think Meissner will make the podium but she will end up in the top 10--maybe. I don't think she'll "sneak in" because there are just too many others that I feel are better at this time.

I think anyone can win and it's a crap shoot. I think Irina will get the gold, personally, based on the judging up to this point, but I also believes it depends on her health and stamina as well. There are just too many "she can win" skaters competing to even make a prediction. But I HOPE Kwan gets the gold.

As far as 3/3s go, haven't the majority of the skaters at any given time this season downgraded from 3/3s to 3/2s because it's better to have the 3/2 clean instead of a "dirty" 3/3?

R.D. · Jan 28, 2006

Let me go out on a limb and say that I don't think Meissner will make the podium but she will end up in the top 10--maybe. I don't think she'll "sneak in" because there are just too many others that I feel are better at this time.

I don't believe that's not going out on a limb. Those who actually think she'll be on the podium in a field of world-class competitors in a high-stakes competition like the Olys are the ones going out on a limb. JMO of course.

sk8rgrl3 · Jan 28, 2006

Everyone keeps talking about jumping. Have we all forgot spinning? Unless the spins gods have come down and given her level 3 and 4 spins, there is no way she is on the same level as Irina, Sasha, Carolina, or any of the Japanese skaters.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 28, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
two 3x3s? I will be shocked if we see even 1 3/3 from her. If she gets through a program of 6 triples semi-clean that would be a thrill for her, regardless the result.

The Good Witch will get you for saying that. :laugh:

:yes:

Joe

kyla2 · Jan 28, 2006

Joe

I agree with everything you said. Whether she wins the gold or not, she will skate beautifully and she will remain the greatest figure skater of all time.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 28, 2006

All these comments about the outcome of the Olympic Figure Skating Medalists in this forum. I wish I had a collection of them to see which posters will be eating their words (including mine)? :laugh:

Joe

Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

Vash01

anything_for_skating

Sk8harvest

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

R.D.

attyfan

Custom Title

JonnyCoop

show 42

Arm Chair Skate Fan

anything_for_skating

Misplaced Gymnast

kyla2

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

Joesitz (RIP)

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

swannanoa54

R.D.

sk8rgrl3

Joesitz (RIP)

kyla2

Joesitz (RIP)

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