Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

Tonichelle said:

to take from the movie Cool Runnings "I'm not smokin', I'm breathin'!"

I don't think it's anymore "laughable" to say that people who see her medalling or even winning as it was 4 years ago when the Sarah contingency said she would not only beat Sasha in the standings but win the whole thing (ok so there was a smaller number saying that than MK fans but still).

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I like Meissner but really what has she done compared to Sarah Hughes going into 2002? Hughes was a reigning World bronze medalist, and 2 time GP final bronze medalist. Meissner is a skater recently out of the juniors, who has not even medaled in her GP assignments, who gets PCS scores a full 1.5+ per category lower than her competitors who plans difficult jumps but is not consistent with them for 2 programs. I dont see her situation going into Turin as being Hughes-like at all.

slutskayafan21 said:

I totally disagree with everything about your analysis. Michelle has a better chance of winning the gold than any of the other ladies? That is far from the truth. Meissner a possable gold winner and the Japanese ladies are not? There is no logic in that at all, sorry. The judges prefer Sasha over Irina all things being equal? That is definitely not true. Sasha does not need two clean programs to win? This is a lady who has never won a major event gold without doing two clean programs so there is no logic in that. Irina will be happy with or without gold? That is far from the truth as well. Do you even watch figure skating. I found your analysis funny, good humour. Please do another one soon, I like the comic relief you can provide.

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You have the right to disagree with any opinions expressed here.

Please don't insult my intelligence by asking if I even watch figure skating.

Vash

Vash01 said:

I don't see Kimmie's win as 'impossible'. We saw in 2002 that anything can happen. Carolina seems to be getting back on track. She will have the speed and the crowd on her side, so she has an outside shot at the gold (if others make mistakes).

I really don't see any of the Japanese ladies challenging for the gold. Not that they don't have the talent but I don't see any of them rising to the occasion and give a great performance when it counts. Shizuka or Fumie could be on the podium but not at the top.

Vash

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If you think Kimmie's win as 'possible', then there is no reason to think Miki's win as 'impossible'.....after all Miki had more senior competetion experience than Kimmie. And her skating is more mature than Kimmie....I think Miki will redeem herself at OOOO.....her poor showing last worlds and earlier on this season could be the pressure of coming into these competetion under the pressure of reigning Japanese Champ at 2005, subconsiously she felt she need to do better than any other Japanese ladies in the competion to prove herself. Now with this pressure off her shoulder, she has nothing to prove and she is the youngst in Japanese team, she just need to skate all out.

Imo

SLutskayaFan you need to calm down a little. I agree with you that Irina has the best chance to win a gold medal, hands down. But remember anything can happen at the Olympics, and does. Michelle does have a chance to win the GM but not a huge one because she has been injured. But the chance still exists. I would be thrilled to see her skate two wonderful performances and win a medal of any kind.The same can be said for Sasha, Kimmie and the Japanese ladies, they can possibly win.

mzheng said:

If you think Kimmie's win as 'possible', then there is no reason to think Miki's win as 'impossible'.....after all Miki had more senior competetion experience than Kimmie. And her skating is more mature than Kimmie....I think Miki will redeem herself at OOOO.....her poor showing last worlds and earlier on this season could be the pressure of coming into these competetion under the pressure of reigning Japanese Champ at 2005, subconsiously she felt she need to do better than any other Japanese ladies in the competion to prove herself. Now with this pressure off her shoulder, she has nothing to prove and she is the youngst in Japanese team, she just need to skate all out.

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Fumie and Shizuka has much better chances to do anything than Kimmie in Turin. Miki's chances are not looking that great at the moment, but even she is likely to place above Kimmie. I dont know what one would be thinking to rate Kimmie's chances over the Japanese women.

kyla2 said:

SLutskayaFan you need to calm down a little. I agree with you that Irina has the best chance to win a gold medal, hands down. But remember anything can happen at the Olympics, and does. Michelle does have a chance to win the GM but not a huge one because she has been injured. But the chance still exists. I would be thrilled to see her skate two wonderful performances and win a medal of any kind.The same can be said for Sasha, Kimmie and the Japanese ladies, they can possibly win.

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If Kimmie can win than even somebody like Rochette could win. They are of similar ability(they scored about the same at Eric Bompard where Meissner skated her best)and Rochette is more consistent than Meissner. That shows what a stretch it would be.

Who has a chance to win? This is the Olympics, so there is always the question of off-ice influences.

I do not think that the international judges are bending over backward to give everything to Slutskaya this year. Although she is still the favorite, she will have to skate for it like everyone else.

Last year Irina was the was the feel-good story du jour. Battling back from life-threatening injury and family emergencies, rising like a phoenix finally to soar above the stratosphere in glorious triumph. If she were from California instead of Moscow, Disney would make a movie of it.

OK, that was then, this is now.

Suppose it comes down to the ladies free skate, and it’s close. Suppose Russia has already won gold medals in men’s, pairs and dance, as expected, with the Western hemisphere clinging pathetically to its lone bronze from Belbin and Agosto. Big bucks from television and corporate sponsors are looking over the ISU's shoulder. Will this make any difference?

Conspiracy theories? Cultural bias? Here is the panel of judges, by nationality, for the ladies’ event:

USA, Canada, Australia, Great Britain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary

Russia, Ukraine, Slovakia

Alternate: Japan.

Not exactly a Slutskaya panel.

There may be a lot of people hoping that Sasha or Michelle will be able deliver a performance worthy of being held up.

MM

Mathman said:

Who has a chance to win? This is the Olympics, so there is always the question of off-ice influences.

I do not think that the international judges are bending over backward to give everything to Slutskaya this year. Although she is still the favorite, she will have to skate for it like everyone else.

Last year Irina was the was the feel-good story de jour. Battling back from life-threatening injury and family emergencies, rising like a phoenix finally to soar above the stratosphere in glorious triumph. If she were from California instead of Moscow, Disney would make a movie of it.

OK, that was then, this is now.

Suppose it comes down to the ladies free skate, and it’s close. Suppose Russia has already won gold medals in men’s, pairs and dance, as expected, with the Western hemisphere clinging pathetically to its lone bronze from Belbin and Agosto. Big bucks from television and corporate sponsors are looking over the ISUs shoulder. Will this make any difference?

Conspiracy theories? Cultural bias? Here is the panel of judges, by nationality, for the ladies’ event:

USA, Canada, Australia, Great Britain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary

Russia, Ukraine, Slovakia

Alternate: Japan.

Not exactly a Slutskaya panel.

There may be a lot of people hoping that Sasha or Michelle will be able deliver a performance worthy of being held up.

MM

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I dont think Irina needs a Slutskaya panel to succeed. Russia and the Ukraine, would negate the U.S and Canada in terms of bias so it should be a fair fight as far as any Slutskaya vs Cohen decision. Australia and Britian would be neutral, I dont believe they would be overtly partial to the U.S and Sasha Cohen for any reason.

Your perspective is interesting and thanks for sharing it. Personally I think the opposite, that many of the judges from Europe, any part of Europe, would very much like to see the Russian sweep of the golds if is on the table. It would create a great storyline overseas. Irina still gets slightly generous scores at times, so I dont agree she isnt still a sentimental favorite. She is more likely to be a favorite with judges than somebody like Kwan with her degressing stature due to less competition and a dropping world ranking. Cohen is also someone that will be liked by ISU judges based on her competitions the last couple years though.

slutskayafan21 said:

I dont think Irina needs a Slutskaya panel to succeed. Russia and the Ukraine, would negate the U.S and Canada in terms of bias so it should be a fair fight as far as any Slutskaya vs Cohen decision. Australia and Britian would be neutral, I dont believe they would be overtly partial to the U.S and Sasha Cohen for any reason.

Your perspective is interesting and thanks for sharing it. Personally I think the opposite, that many of the judges from Europe, any part of Europe, would very much like to see the Russian sweep of the golds if is on the table. It would create a great storyline overseas. Irina still gets slightly generous scores at times, so I dont agree she isnt still a sentimental favorite. She is more likely to be a favorite with judges than somebody like Kwan with her degressing stature due to less competition and a dropping world ranking. Cohen is also someone that will be liked by ISU judges based on her competitions the last couple years though.

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With regards to Canada taking sides with regards to the judging panel after what happened in Salt Lake, I think that you will have to count them out taking sides and being bias. They will not want a repeat of that fiasco that happened in the pairs competition. With regards to countries, I don't think Canada has any favourites.

millie said:

With regards to Canada taking sides with regards to the judging panel after what happened in Salt Lake, I think that you will have to count them out taking sides and being bias. They will not want a repeat of that fiasco that happened in the pairs competition. With regards to countries, I don't think Canada has any favourites.

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Good point.

slutskayafan21 said:

Lest we forget Irina lost about 5 points for doing a 3rd triple loop, had she done a second triple flip or second triple lutz she would have gained an additional 5.5-6 points and had the highest base value. Lest we forget Irina and Sasha were flawed in their shorts and still beat a clean Michelle under COP.

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True, but then Kwan had level 1 spins and her spiral sequence was level 2 rather than level 3 in the SP, so that would affect her base value too. I believe if Kwan adapted to the COP better, her base value would've also been higher.

True about the SP, but don't forget that Kwan was a whole point behind Irina in the base values and that hurt her. I believe Kwan can definitely improve and upgrade her elements so that she'll be closer to both Irina and Sasha.

What a bunch of baloney. She did not have a great skate, but worst skate of her life? She tried 6 triples, fell on one, and 2-footed another, that is the worst skate of her life. 97 U.S Nationals was worse, 2004 qualifying round of Worlds was worse, 2005 qualifying round of Worlds was worst, 2001-02 Skate Canada long and 2001-2002 Goodwill Games and 2001-2002 Masters were all worse. She has had many times a worse performance than her long at Worlds last year.

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Ok, I meant at Worlds LP. Worst skate of her life at Worlds. I mean sure she had bad ones in 1998 and 1999, but I believe it was worse in 2005. I've never seen her skate that poorly in terms of performance and mistakes.

Also many of her competitors had worse skates in the final long than she did. Arakawa certainly did, Miki Ando, Rochette.

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Not in the SP they didn't really, and yet they were still behind Kwan and her level 1 spins and as many people keep harping about...no choreogrpahy

Done by U.S officials and judges, the scores given out at U.S Nationals were by some of these same people, including some of the element levels which were even skewed for the competitors at that event.

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I think they took that into consideration considering that they want Kwan to be full prepared for the COP going into Torino. Do you think they're just gonna tell her that her elements are a certain level when they aren't? What would the point of that be?
Oh yeah, it's Kwan and she never deserves anything she gets, right? Anyway, the USFS panel were consisted of members who are qualified to judge at World championships and ones who specialized in the COP and even helped define what the PCS were. Just so you know...

Listen, Kwan got close to a bronze medal at worlds with level 1 spins and elements she could've done a lot better for the COP, and with a fall and mistake on the last triple. If Kwan could still get a score that would get her a medal there, why is it laughable to see her get a medal with a program that is hypothetically more suitable for COP?

VIETgrlTerifa said:

True, but then Kwan had level 1 spins and her spiral sequence was level 2 rather than level 3 in the SP, so that would affect her base value too. I believe if Kwan adapted to the COP better, her base value would've also been higher.

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Fair enough, she should never have a level 2 on a spiral sequence. At the very least that will be fixed I expect.

Ok, I meant at Worlds LP. Worst skate of her life at Worlds. I mean sure she had bad ones in 1998 and 1999, but I believe it was worse in 2005. I've never seen her skate that poorly in terms of performance and mistakes.

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Ok I see your point here too then. I agree it was her worst final long program at Worlds.

Not in the SP they didn't really, and yet they were still behind Kwan and her level 1 spins and as many people keep harping about...no choreogrpahy

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Actually Arakawa stepped out of a triple flip in the short, and was close enough she would have been ahead in the short otherwise. Suguri fell on her triple lutz and if I recall correctly would have been ahead as well. Kwan was clean, and they werent. Add the -GOE for Arakawa's triple flip, and 3+1+1.3 to Suguri's short program score, and that is assuming neither were going to get +GOE.

I think they took that into consideration considering that they want Kwan to be full prepared for the COP going into Torino. Do you think they're just gonna tell her that her elements are a certain level when they aren't? What would the point of that be? Oh yeah, it's Kwan and she never deserves anything she gets, right? Anyway, the USFS panel were consisted of members who are qualified to judge at World championships and ones who specialized in the COP and even helped define what the PCS were. Just so you know...

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I have no reason to think a U.S judge would be thinking in the mindset of any international judge after seeing the judging at U.S Nationals. Sorry. I am sure the judges who scored U.S Nationals atleast thought the levels of elements were deserved for their skaters, even if they knew they were inflating PCS and GOE scores, but alot of skaters even got higher value non-jump elements than they will get in Turin from U.S judges, after seeing the U.S Nationals on tape. Take that to the bank, I wont be wrong on that.

U.S judges and USFSA panel members are just that, U.S judges and USFSA panel members. They are there to promote and inflate their own, and they naturaly have an inflated view of their own at all times to begin with. Every leading country is that way.

Listen, Kwan got close to a bronze medal at worlds with level 1 spins and elements she could've done a lot better for the COP, and with a fall and mistake on the last triple. If Kwan could still get a score that would get her a medal there, why is it laughable to see her get a medal with a program that is hypothetically more suitable for COP?

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I could see her getting a medal perhaps but not a gold. Everybody acts like Kwan was the only one who had an imperfect Worlds last year. It was a very flawed event except for Slutskaya's brilliance. Cohen was only fair, and won the silver by a monstrous margin. Arakawa was a total mess, Suguri did not skate anywhere near her Four Continents level which would have won her a silver or bronze for sure, Ando was dissapointing, Kostner did almost nothing in the second half of her free skate after a great first half.

I see your points slutskayafan21. I think Irina is the favorite to win, for good reason, however I just think Kwan shouldn't be underestimated or at least she should at least get credit for being able to adapt to COP. With the way some people talk it's like she's Nelidina or something.

Let's just say, let the games begin because it's going to be one heck of a competition.

VIETgrlTerifa said:

I see your points slutskayafan21. I think Irina is the favorite to win, for good reason, however I just think Kwan should be underestimated or at least she should at least get credit for being able to adapt to COP. With the way some people talk it's like she's Nelidina or something.

Let's just say, let the games begin because it's going to be one heck of a competition.

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I wont be dissapointed if Kwan wins, my feelings are not high on her chances are just based on the things I was referring to but I wont be upset if I am wrong. My ideal podium would be Slutskaya, Kwan, and Arakawa in some order, any order I could live with. I am not big on Cohen at all, I do respect her skating, but I am not a fan by any stretch.

I am anxious to see what COP-elements Kwan really does have.

The last time I looked (or stepped on it) ice is slippery, and even the best figure skater can fall. To my way of thinking, anyone of the top ladies has a chance at wearing the OGM

But seriously...

Can Michelle win this thing?

Here are what Irina's and Michelle's program are likely to look like:


PCS and GOEs, except were noted, are equal. Irina has two slight bobbles. Michelle skates clean. Michelle wins!!

So there you go.

MM

Mathman said:

Can Michelle win this thing?

Here are what Irina's and Michelle's program are likely to look like:

Irina

Jumps

3Lz -- 6.0
3S+3Lo+2T -- 10.8
3F -- 5.5 (hand down, -2 GOE)
3F+2T -- 7.5
3 Lo -- 5.5
3T -- 4.4 (shaky landing, -1 GOE)
2A -- 3.6

Total jumps -- 40.3

Non-jump elements

FCSp4 -- 3.0
LSp4 -- 2.4
CoSp3 -- 2.5
CCoSp3 -- 3.0
Spiral 4 -- 3.4
St. Line 2 -- 2.3

Total non-jump elements: 16.6

Michelle

Jumps (speculation based on her test skate)

2A -- 3.3
3S --4.5
3F -- 5.5
3Lz/2T -- 7.3 (Wow! +1 GOE)
3T/2T/2T -- 7.3
3F/2T 5.5
3Lz -- 6.0

Total jumps -- 41.6

Non-jump elements

LSp2 -- 1.5
FCSp2 -- 2.0
CoSp3 -- 2.5
CCosp3 -- 3.0
Stlstep4 -- 3.1
Sp4 -- 3.4

Total non-jump elements -- 15.5

Grand Totals:

Michelle: 57.1

Irina: 56.9​

PCS and GOEs, except were noted, are equal. Irina has two slight bobbles. Michelle skates clean. Michelle wins!!

So there you go.

MM

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I would be surprised if Irina did not get the highest PCS scores, and Sasha was not a strong second. That is my very strong projection at this point. As for your scenario Irina is much more likely to do a clean long than Michelle at this point, not vice-versa.

The best finish for Michelle in Italy could be as good as in Salt Lake City. Besides Irina and Sasha, from what we saw last fall from GPs, it's impossible for anyone else to run a relatively clean programs.

jesslily said:

The best finish for Michelle in Italy could be as good as in Salt Lake City. Besides Irina and Sasha, from what we saw last fall from GPs, it's impossible for anyone else to run a relatively clean programs.

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Mao could have.

Frankly, I think Michelle is a longshot for the Olympic gold medal. At her skate before the judges yesterday, she fell on her short program, and she left out one of her jumps in her long program. It was not the best skate of her life, but of course it did not have to be -- it just had to be good enough to convince these people that she was healthy enough to be competitive at Torino.

Living in the New York City area as I do, I can share with you that the news of Michelle's winning the Olympic bye was met with a decidedly mixed reaction. The media's take was (to paraphrase), "Michelle did not skate particularly well, but she was given the bye the compete at Torino. She has not kept up technically with the other top skaters, as she does not have a triple/triple combination, and she has failed to get up to speed with the requirements of the new judging system. Can she win the gold medal? Most likely not".

The news also showed footage of Emily Hughes skating in Rockefeller Centre, and it mentioned the "disappointment" felt in Great Neck, LI (and other areas around here) over Emily's being replaced on the team by Michelle. Emily will still travel to Torino, but she won't compete unless something happens to Michelle.

I was impressed with Katarina Witt's take on this situation. When asked during the Nationals whether or not she thought Michelle should compete in Torino, she said, "I think Michelle should go, but only if she goes there to win the gold medal. She should not just go there to take in the Olympic experience, she should go to win, period." I agree with Kat. Unless Michelle is going for the gold medal, why should she be allowed to replace Emily, or any other skater who did compete at Nationals?