If not gold, then silver.
No medal, but top 5
No top 5, but top 8
If not gold, then silver.
At least bronze, if she's lucky, maybe silver. It's true her skating's not very fit with the CoP standards, but at least her jumps are as solid as they come, and her presentation/skating skills will rank higher than Meissner. With jumps like Meissner's, her score would probably pull ahead of Kwan a little, unless the judges decides to give Kwan first, just because she is who she is
Math. I know wouldn't it have been wonderful!!Originally Posted by Mathman
Well, the thing is you have to remember that in 2004 she was 3rd in the long and the short programs and came in fourth only because of a terrible qualifying round performance. I think had she skated her SP and LP like she did in the Moscow Worlds, she would probably make it to 3rd place. I suspect if Kwan had competed, she would have displaced Sasha from the podium. Sasha's artistry only impressed the judges so much because Kwan wasn't around. Had Kwan been around, Sasha's choreography and artistry wouldn't make as much of an impression, her artistic scores would go down, and she would drop to fourth.
So with a skate like the 2005 Worlds or a little better, I imagine the following placements:
OR if Michelle's levels had gone up and her jumps were a bit stronger than in 2005 Worlds.
If she doesn't fall, she's taking gold, because she is the 'incumbent', in a manner of speaking....
This does not clarify whether she was "without injury" - so even with the injury they still would have put her in the top 10 just for being MK. Relatively fair in some aspects because NO ONE can "work the steps" like MK. All singles and a clean for her spiral with the fantastic foot work she throws out there, she would have received 10th at least.
All and all I am glad she did not go because Emmie did what you do to get there, you can throw all the "ifs" and "what about everything before" you want at me. When it comes down to it, still a sport that you go through steps to qualify. That should be stuck to or people will be more likely to say it isn't really a sport but a pop contest. Rather they are wrong or not, that is the reality of the public eye. Glad she tried, but Nats were not hers.
Iff she WAS totally healthy, my guess is 2nd, or put the pressure on Shi-chan to do the 3combo and possibly fell...this is just to much speculation. I cant do it.
I think many people don't realize that the United States Figure Skating Association does have "steps that you have to go through to qualify," and they do follow their own rules and bylaws, in accordance with the specifications of the USOC, the IOC and the ISU.Originally Posted by seanibu
The rules are: (1) The U.S. champion goes. (That was Sasha.)
(2) If there is more than one spot available (spots are earned by the performance of the previous year's worlds team -- Michelle and Sasha earned two extra spots for the U.S. by finishing 2nd and 4th at 2005 worlds) then USFC through its committee structure fills the other two spots based on such considerations as
(a) Placement at Nationals (Kimmie was second, Emily third, Katy Taylor fourth).
(b) Placement at Worlds (Sasha was second, Michelle was fourth, Jenny Kirk was 17th).
(c) Performance in other international competitions (Alissa Czisny got second at Skate America, first at Skate Canada and was the only American lady to make the Grand Prix final.)
All of these criteria were taken into account by USFS in selecting the U.S. Olympic team and its alternates.
Now, obviously there can be a difference of opinion as to whether the rules ought to be changed for 2010. Maybe it would be "more like a sport" if they had a qualifying tournament period (like they do for track and field), independent of U.S. nationals, World placements, etc.
But these are the rules as they exist.
I do agree with you that had Kwan been in the event she and Cohen are so much closer in pure style, polish, and exquisiteness of moves, that either would not stand out as much that way as without the other, and as it turns out it would probably have hurt Cohen considering she did not stand up a couple of her jumps in the free skate anyway.Originally Posted by krenseby
I think that Kwan would probably been 5th (behind Suguri). Considering that without injuries her placement at 2004 Worlds was 3rd, and in 2005 4th, I don´t believe that Kwan while suffering from injuries in whole 2005-2006 season would have placed higher. Besides her experience with CoP judging has been rather insignificant..
Oh, it just kills me to have to agree with Jaana on a Michelle thread! But I think it all depends on how we interpret the original question. The premise was, "if she had been healthy enough to compete..."
I think Michelle hasn't really been healthy enough to compete for some time. She was forced to withdraw form two full seasons of competition because of chronic back and hip pain, showing up only for U.S. Nationals and Worlds. The fact that she was able to win Nationals in 2004 and 2005 led people to view her slipping performances at Worlds as being just bad luck -- an accidentally not-so-hot performance at the wrong time.
Now she is limping through the COI tour as best she can. She took a day off at the Fort Lauderdale show a couple of weeks ago -- the first time ever that she has missed a performance.
So, I would have to say, yes, if she were "healthy enough to compete" she could have contended for the podium, and if she were the Michelle of old, she might have blown away the competition.
But I believe her health situation was a lot more dire than just, she suffered another groin pull at her first practice session in Torino, which might have improved by the time of the SP.
Kwan should have won 98 Olys. She was a much much better skater than little annie rooney.
Kwan could have won 02 Olys. But what was that all about leading up to the Olys? Just weeks before the Olys, there is no coach and no choreographer. They were replaced by Kwan's father. Nothing but speculation came out of that.
Kwan won 2003 Worlds and looked like she could still be competitive for 2006. I believe that shortly after that worked with Dean and then amid rumors of working with TT and getting down 2 3x3s her back gave in. It then happened that tweeking programs and eliminating certain jumps to save her back were on the scene.
She continued anyway and getting the bye and withdrawing from Olys was no surprise.
For the topic of this thread, Kwan did the right thing to withdraw from the Olys and not even consider Worlds.
Not only would she have won the gold in ladies but also, pairs, dance, and if Johhny would loan her a costume, mens, LOL.
......and stolen Camille from Johnny.Originally Posted by Piel
I am not a Kwan fan, never have been, but IMHO, if she would have come to the Olympics with a physical therapist in tow, not gone to the Opening Ceremonies, and kept her MOUTH SHUT she would have done it. I think she was vintage Kwan in trying to get the spotlight rather than go get the job done. Gold would have been hers.