Off-Season Debate, Question 1: Can Kimmie Keep Up The Momentum?

Red Dog said:

I said only if it's ABSOLUTELY necessary to bring up other skaters to do so. If one needs to compare her (Kimmie) to other skaters coming up at Nats, that's fine- but only for comparison reasons. If you really wanted to discuss those skaters, you'd be posting in another thread anyway.

DG- yes I follow only senior ladies. But here's my question: Suppose after winning a bunch of lower-level titles/medals, a skater comes up, does really well at one international comp (senior), and then is practically never heard from again? Is that skater a "one-hit-wonder" or not? I simply wondered if Kimmie would end up that way after next year. Maybe junior and novice success is a sign of good things to come for Kimmie, but we just can't know yet.

So that's what I really mean. Maybe I should have asked if she would end up a flash-in-the-pan (like Alissa C. was) instead of using the "one-hit-wonder" phrase. :scratch:

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1. In answer to your question to me above, which I bolded, I need to ask you a question. How are you defining "does really well at one international comp (senior)? If "does really well" is making the podium at one international competition only (as a senior), then who do you REALLY consider to be one hit wonders? You mention Alissa as an example (back there somewhere) as someone you consider a "one hit wonder." But she has medaled at multiple ISU Senior Ladies events in the past season competing as a senior. I'm just trying to figure out what a "one hit wonder" is for you, since your general definition and your comments don't seem to tie.

2. If you want to speculate on next seasons Senior Ladies during this off season, I'm not sure how you can do that (without significantly lmiting yourself) without considering Jr. Ladies, who are in process of moving to Sr's. in the mix. As Mathman aptly pointed out, Mao Asada has already established a multiple podium record in her first Sr. competitive year, including a win at the GP final. Then consider that Yu-Na Kim soundly trounced Mao Asada at Jr. World's. So I guess Yu-Na Kim appears to be one of the strongest contenders under your definition of a "one hit wonder" that might be a "one hit wonder" by your rules next season. She's the hottest prospect I'm aware of that has a stellar Jr. record, but has not been considered for the podium yet in ISU top tier Sr. level competition. (who else would you *vote* for if not her??)

3. But then there are others!! Nakano, Katy, Zukowski (bronze this year at Jr. Worlds), Emily, Kirra, Mira, Elene, Joannie, Meier, Cupkake, and Kostner. And this group leaves out the possible retirements or not of MK, Cohen, Arakawa, Irina, Ando, Fumie, etc. etc. Geez. IMO, it's a shame there are only three spots on any given podium.

Have you (or others - would love to discuss it!!) watched the Jr. World's SHOWDOWN between Mao and Kim? For me, those downloaded videos highlighted some concerns people have expressed already about Mao's potential vulnerabilities. (concern about variety of jumps, especially if one "leaves her" amidst her limited repetoire). Kim rocked it - with IMO a really nicely presented program and more variety in the jump department (both of them IMO have "room to grow" in some non-jump departments which IMO are different for each of them.)

4. If watching these Jr. Worlds Vids said anything to me in a broad sense, it's how FAR Kimmie has come with her presentation in the last year. At Jr. World's last year, Kim and Asada soundly trounced Meissner (as did Hughes II). Meissner's World's performance combined with her "stair step" improvements through the season lead me to believe she has advanced many miles through this first Sr. season. IMO at this stage, the HOT Youngsters have some ground to cover to Katch Kimmy for next year.

Even if every one of the "veterans" retire before next season, the ladies event stands to be exciting. And if a "one hit wonder" appears, that will make it even MORE exciting for me. (Go Kiira or Meier or STEPHANIE for a PODIUM place at the GP's next year!!!!!! Or one of many other hot prospects!!)

DG

Doggygirl said:

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4. If watching these Jr. Worlds Vids said anything to me in a broad sense, it's how FAR Kimmie has come with her presentation in the last year. At Jr. World's last year, Kim and Asada soundly trounced Meissner (as did Hughes II).Meissner's World's performance combined with her "stair step" improvements through the season lead me to believe she has advanced many miles through this first Sr. season. IMO at this stage, the HOT Youngsters have some ground to cover to Katch Kimmy for next year.

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I agree with almost all your post but before this gets spread about as fact let me correct your use of "trounce". At Jr Worlds in Kitchener Emily barely beat Kimmie 147.9 to 146.6. Emily skated one of her best programs and Kimmie one of her worst. "Trounce" is a very good word for what Asada did -- she bested Emily by over 30 points and Kim by over 20. Kim beat Meissner and Hughes by over 10 points -- and I can agree that is pretty close to a trounce.

Doggygirl said:

1. In answer to your question to me above, which I bolded, I need to ask you a question. How are you defining "does really well at one international comp (senior)? If "does really well" is making the podium at one international competition only (as a senior), then who do you REALLY consider to be one hit wonders? You mention Alissa as an example (back there somewhere) as someone you consider a "one hit wonder." But she has medaled at multiple ISU Senior Ladies events in the past season competing as a senior. I'm just trying to figure out what a "one hit wonder" is for you, since your general definition and your comments don't seem to tie.

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By "doing really well" I refer to either winning or placing 2nd. But above all, it's having that skate of your life that I'm talking about, and in that case placement doesn't matter as much (but typically that leads to either a 1st or 2nd place finish for these guys in most cases).

IMO. to be a one-hit wonder it doesn't have to be just ONE competition. It can mean having a great season one year only to never bounce back and then in future seasons, go downhill. Maybe the right term to use here is one-SEASON-wonder.

In this case Alissa to me is a one-hit-wonder since she did well IIRC in only TWO events that she did this year. Unless she can bounce back next year she'll continue to be one- in my mind, anyway. This is not a bad thing, really- it's just a way of saying someone obscure suddenly has a breakout competition, only to be saddened by not being able to live up to the newly found pressure afterward. I hope this further explains my point.

2. If you want to speculate on next seasons Senior Ladies during this off season, I'm not sure how you can do that (without significantly lmiting yourself) without considering Jr. Ladies, who are in process of moving to Sr's. in the mix. As Mathman aptly pointed out, Mao Asada has already established a multiple podium record in her first Sr. competitive year, including a win at the GP final. Then consider that Yu-Na Kim soundly trounced Mao Asada at Jr. World's. So I guess Yu-Na Kim appears to be one of the strongest contenders under your definition of a "one hit wonder" that might be a "one hit wonder" by your rules next season. She's the hottest prospect I'm aware of that has a stellar Jr. record, but has not been considered for the podium yet in ISU top tier Sr. level competition. (who else would you *vote* for if not her??)

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You're right in one sense- those Junior Ladies you're talking about have the potential to be Spoilers in the next four years, not to mention those skaters already in seniors who are developing and improving from comp. to comp. Everyone talks of Yu-Na, Meissner and Mao Asada but those are just three skaters who have, so far, just proved to be potential championship material- in other words, skaters to be dealt with in the future. But remember I said before Worlds when everyone was talking of Cohen/Suguri/Rochette that there is one potential wildcard out there- a spoiler- that could potentially surprise everyone. I couldn't know what it was, exactly, but I had this funny feeling it was going to turn out. That spoiler turned out to be Meissner, and who would have thought- even with my suspicions I didn't even think Meissner could have been that wildcard skater. Well, let me put it this way...I thought Meissner would be bronze medal material but no way did I ever think she would win.

The take-home message here is that one just NEVER KNOWS how things will play out in the world of skating. A burning question is whether these three chosen ones can handle their nerves once they start experiencing REAL pressure. Meissner will feel it here in the States and you bet Asada will feel it in Japan.

I am assuming- for now anyway- that Cohen, Kwan, Slutskaya and Shizuka Arakawa will retire. I will continue to assume that in my speculations unless they tell me that they are not.

Have you (or others - would love to discuss it!!) watched the Jr. World's SHOWDOWN between Mao and Kim? For me, those downloaded videos highlighted some concerns people have expressed already about Mao's potential vulnerabilities. (concern about variety of jumps, especially if one "leaves her" amidst her limited repetoire). Kim rocked it - with IMO a really nicely presented program and more variety in the jump department (both of them IMO have "room to grow" in some non-jump departments which IMO are different for each of them.)

4. If watching these Jr. Worlds Vids said anything to me in a broad sense, it's how FAR Kimmie has come with her presentation in the last year. At Jr. World's last year, Kim and Asada soundly trounced Meissner (as did Hughes II). Meissner's World's performance combined with her "stair step" improvements through the season lead me to believe she has advanced many miles through this first Sr. season. IMO at this stage, the HOT Youngsters have some ground to cover to Katch Kimmy for next year.

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I'm not exactly blessed with either coverage or interest in the Junior competitions so you will have to sum it up for me. I think you did just that in your post. Thanks.

leon said:

I agree with almost all your post but before this gets spread about as fact let me correct your use of "trounce". At Jr Worlds in Kitchener Emily barely beat Kimmie 147.9 to 146.6. Emily skated one of her best programs and Kimmie one of her worst. "Trounce" is a very good word for what Asada did -- she bested Emily by over 30 points and Kim by over 20. Kim beat Meissner and Hughes by over 10 points -- and I can agree that is pretty close to a trounce.

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Many thanks for that correction. I LOVE watching the juniors, and that is generally not televised. But the results are the results just the same, and I really appreciate you sharing these specific facts here. I guess if we consider that last two seasons, Mao, Yu-Na, Kimmie and Emily have ALL proven (as younger skaters) their ability to "trounce." Good for them. Tough competitors all. I hope this evolves into some grand rivalries over the next few years in Srs.

DG

How do we know Mao and Yu-na won't be flukes?

Eeyora said:

How do we know Mao and Yu-na won't be flukes?

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IMO, we don't. Any more than "we" (fans) could predict any specfic skaters specific season. Just like we don't have a clue (at least I don't anyway!! ) of who will win the Superbowl, the World Series, the National Baton Twirling Contest, the GP Final, or the NHS Chicago Speedway event next year.

TUGBA for WORLD CHAMPION 2007!!!!!!

DG

ok, of ALL the far-fetched theories and predictions...that ain't happening. At least not next year.

For example, Tara and Sarah were one hit wonder, because they won on the Olympics, and they dissappeared. But Kimmie won on the worlds, and the world title is for the one who is the best in that moment.

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Then what is the difference between winning the Olympics and disappearing and winning the Worlds and disappearing? They are both single competitions, so it doesn't seem to matter much...

Red Dog said:

Then what is the difference between winning the Olympics and disappearing and winning the Worlds and disappearing? They are both single competitions, so it doesn't seem to matter much...

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No difference,the best wins. But you must agree that an Olumpic Gold medal is for a skater who is on the top for a long time...

anything_for_skating said:

But you must agree that an Olumpic Gold medal is for a skater who is on the top for a long time...

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No I don't have to agree and I don't agree at all. An Olympic Gold medal is for a skater who wins that particular competition. It's probably better for the sport is that skater also has a long career in skating afterward and doesn't fall off the face of the earth, but that's not really the judges' concern.

leon said:

Most parents and coaches I've talked to have strong rules against the younger skaters reading any of these boards. It is incredible what insensitive things grown people will say about competitors who are still just on the cusp between childhood and adulthood.

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ITA. I, too, am astonished daily when I read these boards.

Teenagers spend a lot of time on the Internet. If their friends come up and say, ooo, you should see what they are saying about you on xyz site! there is a temptation to click and see.

MM

Mafke said:

No I don't have to agree and I don't agree at all. An Olympic Gold medal is for a skater who wins that particular competition. It's probably better for the sport is that skater also has a long career in skating afterward and doesn't fall off the face of the earth, but that's not really the judges' concern.

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ahhhh....a two months ago I was explaining this over and over and posting long posts again and again, and it was about qhy Irina deserves OGM more than anyone...I'm just tired of explaining...I guess you will never understand it

Just this one thing: no matter what Kimmie will do next year,unless she will stop skating-she is not a one-hit wonder.

That's all. End of story.

Kimmie

Can Tara and Sarah be lumped together as one-hit wonders?

Tara was U.S. Champion and World Champion before winning gold at the Olympics. Tara was hardly a one-hit wonder. Sarah, however, won only the Olympics.

Dizzy

Sarah

Just a thought concerning Sarah being a “One-hit Wonder”: Sarah chose to stop skating. Because of this, we do not know what her potential may have been. She may have gone on to win more titles, but we will never know.

Perhaps, but the bottom line is that she didn't. Therefore she blasted out of the gate, had one great performance when it counted, and then disappeared. a TRUE one hit wonder. (well, I guess if you count her 2nd place nationals finish the next year, it may not be so much).

But we're really getting off-topic here. I wonder if Kimmie will keep the same technical content for next year (she should if she wants to be competitive IMO). Also, she is only 16, right? I also wonder whether with age, she will make that transformation from a more technical skater to a more presentation skater. But I guess we can't know now, can we?

Kimmie

I think Kimmie will need to keep the same technical content to be competitive. There are other skaters right behind her with excellent technical skills not to mention better presentation, IMHO.

Dizzy

Lonewolf said:

Just a thought concerning Sarah being a “One-hit Wonder”: Sarah chose to stop skating. Because of this, we do not know what her potential may have been. She may have gone on to win more titles, but we will never know.

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I wouldn't say that Sarah quit skating so quickly that we could not learn what her potential might have been. She returned to Oly eligible competition in the '02/'03 season -- where she did not win a single event, but she seemed to be gradually improving with each event, until Worlds -- where her QR was really miserable, and she fell in both her SP and FS. It seemed to me that Sarah grew some between the Olys and the next season, and that might have thrown off her jumps.

It will be interesting to see how Kimmie will be scored next season. Does anyone remember how Tara was scored in the fall of '97? She started receiving much lower scores than she did the season before, and certainly lower than she received at Worlds when she won.

I think that with Kimmie's body type at World's 2006, there isn't a problem BUT, if she grows taller and her body matures over the next year, there will be a problem. Kimmie is only 16 years old and probably hasn't fully grown. Right now she hasn't any problems with her jumps but next season we will have to wait and see. Then we will know if she is a one hit wonder. Oksana Baiul's is an example of how a skater's body can change from one season to the next.