As noted on other boards, Carolina is very tall for a skater, and her height combined with her speed makes her jumps very inconsistent. She is just too tall and too fast, and a slight lean on the takeoff dooms the jump to failure. Add to that her shaky competition nerves, and you get results like Torino and Calgary.
I think it could be that physics are involved. We noticed years ago, tht the best Men freeskaters were no taller than 5'9" and Ladies had a tough time when over 5'5". I'm just saying jump wise.
Jennifer Robinson was 5'7", but her biggest problem was lack of speed rather than jumps. Emily Hughes is 5'6" and tends to overpower her jumps, causing iffy landings. Shizuka Arakawa is a little over 5'5" and did have jump problems from time to time, but she did win a World Championship and an OGM.
I also thought it was extremely tacky to hope for Meissner losing her World title. I, for one, would love to see her successfully defend it. I'd also dearly love to see Johnny Weir prove all his detractors wrong by standing on top of the World podium with 3 clean skates with quads.
Originally Posted by chuckm
About the ice dancers: apparently Dubreuil/Lauzon are now saying they'll be staying in through to Vancouver Olympics (they will be 35 and 34). I wonder if that will still be the case if, given quirky ice dance judging, they finish off the podium in 2007. That happened to Denkova/Staviiski: they won silver in 2004 but were 5th in 2005.
Actually I find that comment a bit interesting. I have always found of all 4 events ice dancing judges over the years have been the most predictable of all. Look at how many times podiums stayed very close to the same for an entire quadrennial. For many years it seemed once you were established somewhere among the upper ranks(eg-top 5 or 6), it took an injury layoff to change who you were over and under by more then 1 team per 2 years. Under the new COP ice dancing is only starting to catch up to the other 4 events as far as judges allowing some competiveness, and an element of uncertainty.
Originally Posted by chuckm
Under CoP, ice dancing judges are fickle. As noted by George Rossano, the scores at Torino provided plenty of evidence of judges playing the politics card, and now they can do it without direct scrutiny.
I tend to believe that what helped D/L to win a World medal this year was (in no particular order) their romantic FD, sympathy for their horrible fall in Torino, their previous announcement that 2005-2006 was their last season, and the fact that Worlds 2006 was held in Canada. Anyone who thinks that D/L are assured of a podium placement in 2007 should remember that ice dance judges are capable of raising and dropping teams without notice.
I never said Dubreuil/Lauzon were ensured of a podium placement in 2007 if they competed.
I do disagree on sympathy or sentimental factors, or being in Canada, being reasons for their medal at the 2006 Worlds. Their results all year would indicate that in a field missing both Navka/Kostamarov and Delobel/Schoenfelder they were serious medal threats, and quite a good bet to win a medal of some color at Worlds vs the field present. At the GP final, they were 3rd overall, and close to 2nd overall, and 2nd in the free dance, in a field missing Belbin/Agosto and Denkova/Stayvinski, so really a comparable quality field to the Worlds field missing both the top Russians and Ukranians. They had regularly beaten Delobel/ Schoenfelder all year. Drobiazko/Vanagas did not even finish in the top 6 in Turin, whether or not Dubreuil/Lauzon would have medaled in Turin, they certainly appeared to be on route to a higher finish then that there. So them placing in the top 3 at Worlds is no surprise when one looks at their season, and the field present.
Last edited by slutskayafan21; 06-18-2006 at 01:48 PM.
GP/GPF success in no way guarantees World level success, and not making the GPF may have no influence on World placement . Some years back, G/G romped all through the GP and didn't make the World podium. Winkler/Lohse didn't make the GPF in 2004 and yet medaled at Worlds (in Germany). IIRC, D/L placed above DelShoes at the 2004/2005 GPF, but DelShoes outplaced D/L at 2005 Worlds.
Sorry, but I tend to think that D/L placing above B/A at Worlds was helped to some degree by the factors I mentioned in my previous post. As lovely and romantic as D/L's FD was, it was S-L-O-W in comparison to the FDs of all the top 6 teams.
Alot of people were shocked at Belbin/Agosto winning only bronze at Worlds. I was not because while they won silver at the Olympics, there was a razor thin margin between 2nd and 4th, they could have easily ended up 3rd or 4th, as well as 2nd as they did. That was with only those 4 contending teams skating well, the others(Dubreuil/Lauzon, Drobiazko/Vanagas, Denkova/Stayvinski)had a major error at some point in the competition. I thought Belbin/Agosto would be the favorites at Worlds with the Russians out(the Ukranians also pulled out of course) but only very slight favorites, so while I picked them to win, I was not very surprised at all they could be as low as 3rd.
Where as many thought going into the Olympics Belbin/Agosto would be on par with Navka/Kostamarov fighting for gold, and a level above the other contending teams, I strongly believed after missing so much of the year they would instead not be a threat to Navka/Kostamarvov at all, and be challenged by some of the other top teams to hold their position in a fierce battle. As both the Olympics and Worlds showed that was an accurate forecast.
They will probably have less to deal with next year, the citizenship thing is behind them, hopefully they will be healthier, and they will be stronger and that much harder to beat next year. This year they were somewhat vurnerable, and did well to do as well as they did.
slutskayafan21: "Where as many thought going into the Olympics Belbin/Agosto would be on par with Navka/Kostamarov fighting for gold, and a level above the other contending teams, I strongly believed after missing so much of the year they would instead not be a threat to Navka/Kostamarvov at all, and be challenged by some of the other top teams to hold their position in a fierce battle. As both the Olympics and Worlds showed that was an accurate forecast."
What did B/A miss, one GP event and the GP final? They skated at Nebelhorn and Skate America, and also did 4CC before the Olympics. They actually had one more competition than D/L and skated the full Olympic program.
What did B/A miss, one GP event and the GP final?
That is significant, if you consider 2 GP events and 1 GP final for the top skaters, that is two-thirds of their GP season. They also looked rustier to me this year then last year. Either from what I did see of them prior to Turin, I expected them not to challenge Navka/Kostomarov in anyway as many did, and to be the favorite for the next highest placing(which was silver in Turin, gold at Worlds)but to have alot of competition from the other top teams, moreso then last year, where their skating looked more polished and dynamic then it did this year. So their bronze at Worlds did not shock me, especialy after winning silver at the Olympics with a 4th place in the free dance, and so many teams having mistakes there.
Many teams had mistakes in the OD at Torino, not in the FD. It was B/A who had a mistake in the FD, or they would have scored higher.
As it was, the marks for the FD were very close. Due to their mistake, B/A were 4th in the FD, but were behind DelShoes by just 1.33 points and G/G by just 1.0 point. B/A had placed very, very close to N/K in the OD, just 0.54 points behind them. That's why B/A won the silver medal. So much for their "rusty" performance.
101.37 NAVKA / KOSTOMAROV
99.50 DELOBEL / SCHOENFELDER
99.17 GRUSHINA / GONCHAROV
98.17 BELBIN / AGOSTO
96.03 DENKOVA / STAVIISKI
95.19 DROBIAZKO / VANAGAS
The marking at 2006 Worlds, particularly in the OD, was very, very peculiar, as noted by George Rossano. There was definite evidence of federation alliances and some very skewed placements. The differences between the placements in OD and FD for certain teams is very striking.
5 2 DROBIAZKO / VANAGAS
2 5 DELOBEL / SCHOENFELDER
10 8 FAIELLA / SCALI
8 11 WING / LOWE
11 9 KERR / KERR
16 12 KHOKHLOVA / NOVITSKI
13 15 FRASER / LUKANIN
12 17 PECHALAT / BOURZAT
Nothing wrong with talking about 2006 Olys and Worlds but the topic is about 2007 Worlds in Tokyo.
The changes in placings per dance to dance at the Worlds was a reflection of all the top teams this year, except for Navka/Kostomarov who are far and away the best, are very evenly matched, the point differences in each dance were very small at Worlds remember. So that is not a bad thing, in fact it is exactly what people had been wanting to see more of for years in dance, more changes in order from dance to dance, more unpredictability, more sense of "competition". Now that it happens though, people find it strange, go figure.
N/K made sloppy mistakes at Europeans and still won, to the outrage of the audience. No, they are not always head and shoulders above the rest. Often this season (and last, as well) they had some good competitions and some abysmal ones, yet they were consistently scored high. I guess that's the standard bonus for SWR (skating while Russian).