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Thread: Why do people look to junior events for clues?

  1. #1
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    Why do people look to junior events for clues?

    One thing I dont understand is why so many people look at junior results for clues on how things might go between young skaters that year and in the future. The problem with that is junior results are not legimately judged in the least, as suspect as senior judging may be at time, junior event judging is a complete farce with zero legitimitacy whatsoever, it is all about what peoples coaches and mommies do before the event, even skaters in their books speak of this. Look at some junior events past years:

    94 World juniors-Szewcenko finishing 4th at the World JUNIORS the same year she finished 3rd at the World SENIORS, ummm ok. Szewecenko skated exactly the same performances at World juniors as World seniors, with a clean short with a triple loop-double toe, double axel, and double flip; and a clean long with two triple loops clean, two triple toes clean, and a clean triple salchow, with a hand down on the triple lutz(at Worlds's she two footed it so basicaly a wash).

    96 World juniors-Tara Lipinski finishing 5th at World juniors, while 3 Russian women who never even made it to Senior Worlds, and would not be close to top 10 calibre at a senior Worlds at that time swept. Granted Tara did only a triple loop combo in the short which could explain her 7th in the short, and finished outside the top 10 at Worlds due to a poor short, but in the long she did the same performance she did to finish in the top 10 in the long program at Worlds that same year. She still was outside the top 3 in the long program portion.

    2001 World juniors-This was the year the French and U.S formed block judging to put Weir, Lysacek, and Restancourt on the podium and keep Lambiel and the other contenders off the podium no matter how they skated.


    So the World juniors are the biggest farce of an event out there, and I cant believe people look to the results of it for a basis of anything. It should be treated as just a laugh off kids-having-fun kind of event which in reality is all it is, with mommies, daddies, and coaches deciding the results.

    Already people are looking at Kim's upset win over Asada at the WJs this year as a sign of something. Sorry it means nothing until something happens in seniors between them. Aside from the fact Asada skated nowhere near her best who knows what that result was based on if typical judging at World juniors is any indication.

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    I think that people look at World Juniors for predictions because there is a correlation between medaling there and medaling at Sr. Worlds -- Kulik, Yags, Plushy, Tim G, Sarah H, Michelle, Irina all medaled at Jr. Worlds.

    Also, I don't think your reference to Tara at '96 Jr. Worlds proves much of anything. There is a strong chance (not a certainty, but a strong chance) that Tara would not have gotten to Sr. Worlds in '96 at all if Nicole Bobek had not gotten hurt -- and she came in 15th that year. The fact that she won Sr. Worlds in '97 doesn't say anything (to me at least) about the quality of judging at Juniors.

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    I saw Tara's long program at the 96 juniors Worlds and I gaurantee it would have beaten Pingacheva and Kanaeva, who won silver and bronze, at any senior judged competition, there is no doubt. Ivanova is the only one who skated well enough to possably beat her in the long program.

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    Quote Originally Posted by attyfan
    I think that people look at World Juniors for predictions because there is a correlation between medaling there and medaling at Sr. Worlds -- Kulik, Yags, Plushy, Tim G, Sarah H, Michelle, Irina all medaled at Jr. Worlds.
    Yeah but look at all the skaters who went on to win World titles and Olympic medals who never medaled at World Juniors. It is probably just as long as the list that has.

  5. #5
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    SFfan - I don't think people look at the results. They are looking at talent. It's the step before the BIG one.

    Joe

  6. #6
    Rooting for the divas with Kwanford Spun Silver's Avatar
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    Not all juniors stars are going to be senior stars, but all senior stars will have been junior stars.

    Ergo, it is logical to take an interest in junior stars.

    Somewhere in there is the star of the future and you will be able to say, I saw her potential when she was 14!

    Even better if you are watching the tiny tots.

  7. #7
    ~ Figure Skating Is My Passion ~ Ladskater's Avatar
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    All skaters start in the Jr. ranks - they have to walk before they can run. Years ago the Jr. skaters did not get the media attention they receive now so many skaters did not really become household names until they hit the Sr. ranks. It's nothing new to watch the Jr. skaters and see who will be hitting the Sr. ranks in the future.

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    what didn't kill me-made me stronger!
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    This is exactly the same thing I am wondering! Look at the thread "the future of Russian skaters", and check my 2 last posts.

  9. #9
    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
    One thing I dont understand is why so many people look at junior results for clues on how things might go between young skaters that year and in the future. The problem with that is junior results are not legimately judged in the least, as suspect as senior judging may be at time, junior event judging is a complete farce with zero legitimitacy whatsoever, it is all about what peoples coaches and mommies do before the event, even skaters in their books speak of this. Look at some junior events past years:

    94 World juniors-Szewcenko finishing 4th at the World JUNIORS the same year she finished 3rd at the World SENIORS, ummm ok. Szewecenko skated exactly the same performances at World juniors as World seniors, with a clean short with a triple loop-double toe, double axel, and double flip; and a clean long with two triple loops clean, two triple toes clean, and a clean triple salchow, with a hand down on the triple lutz(at Worlds's she two footed it so basicaly a wash).

    96 World juniors-Tara Lipinski finishing 5th at World juniors, while 3 Russian women who never even made it to Senior Worlds, and would not be close to top 10 calibre at a senior Worlds at that time swept. Granted Tara did only a triple loop combo in the short which could explain her 7th in the short, and finished outside the top 10 at Worlds due to a poor short, but in the long she did the same performance she did to finish in the top 10 in the long program at Worlds that same year. She still was outside the top 3 in the long program portion.

    2001 World juniors-This was the year the French and U.S formed block judging to put Weir, Lysacek, and Restancourt on the podium and keep Lambiel and the other contenders off the podium no matter how they skated.


    So the World juniors are the biggest farce of an event out there, and I cant believe people look to the results of it for a basis of anything. It should be treated as just a laugh off kids-having-fun kind of event which in reality is all it is, with mommies, daddies, and coaches deciding the results.

    Already people are looking at Kim's upset win over Asada at the WJs this year as a sign of something. Sorry it means nothing until something happens in seniors between them. Aside from the fact Asada skated nowhere near her best who knows what that result was based on if typical judging at World juniors is any indication.
    Given all of this, tell me why you think the judging at Senior worlds is any less of a farce, or any more legitimate than that at junior worlds?

    The conclusion i would have is that they're the same - so by your reckonoing we should just close down these boards and not discuss anything skating related!

    Ant

  10. #10
    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
    I saw Tara's long program at the 96 juniors Worlds and I gaurantee it would have beaten Pingacheva and Kanaeva, who won silver and bronze, at any senior judged competition, there is no doubt. Ivanova is the only one who skated well enough to possably beat her in the long program.
    I'm sorry but the change in the junior skaters when they move up to seniors is so blatant - look at teh difference between Tara's first year at senior worlds compared to her second year - the changes, certainyl in presentation were marked, and she'd upped the technical ante.

    Same with Michelle in her first year compared to second and most notable third year in seniors, they change could easily be the maturing of the skater plus the fact that the emphasis in juniors tends to be on the getting the technical required for seniors and then once you get to the to pechelons of seniors its the polish and presntation skills that are emphasised (assuming you have the tech).

    Ant

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    It seems like you are talking about just the results, though, not the skating itself.
    Why shouldn't people watch the skating, and draw conclusions from that?

    In your last example, unlike the first two, you didn't give any specific examples of why you thought the placements were wrong. Can you, please? That's quite a thing to claim with no examples.

  12. #12
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    I don't know why, but even at our little competition all the judges will stick around for the Juniors but won't hang around to watch the Seniors.

  13. #13
    Skating Freak Barbie
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    It's also possible that people can look at Juniors as a way of predicting future success, (not based on Junior success, but on skating quality) because by the time of reaching Junior level, the fundamentals of "basic skating" will be there. Maybe not yet fully refined, but there. You can see Juniors who are 17, 18 years old, and are light years from the elite senior level just because of that. Their basic skating, their edging, their stroking, their line and posture and positions, are so weak that it would take years to improve to elite Senior level. Then there are some Juniors that have sound basics, and are already personable crowd-pleasers as well...those are the ones who probably have a more likely chance of success at the Senior level. It's not about the wins, losses and scoring in my mind, but what you see from the actual skater.

  14. #14
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    I think one reason for it is there are so many juniors competing in the senior ranks now, especially among the ladies, and especially in the last 10-15 years, that it seems natural to look to the Junior results. During the 80s, it would take 3 or 4 years before we saw a top junior in the senior ranks, in most cases; then they got rid of compolsury figures and since then the Jr and Sr Worlds seem to have a lot of the same people in them. (Again, I'm speaking mostly of the Ladies, tho it does seem to be happening more and more with the men as well; Pairs & Dance, it still takes a couple of years.) And given that OGMs and World titles are now possible to win at 15, 16, and 17, still junior eligible ages, I don't think it's altogether unreasonable to look at Junior Worlds results from just a couple of seasons earlier.
    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21

    2001 World juniors-This was the year the French and U.S formed block judging to put Weir, Lysacek, and Restancourt on the podium and keep Lambiel and the other contenders off the podium no matter how they skated.
    Yep. Should have seen this one coming. Really. We get it. Lysacek needs a major conspiracy to get him on the podium, and it's usually the same one that seems to keep 2-time World Champion and Olympic Silver Medalist Stephane Lambiel OFF the podium. Lambiel's sure won a lot of prestigious medals given how often they keep him off the podium. You have been beating this same drum so many times the last few months you must have had to replace it at least once because of the hole worn in it. WE GET IT.

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    I saw 2001 Junior Worlds, and Weir and Lysacek completely deserved their medals. Leave it to slutskayafan to denigrate their achievements, as she/he always does.

    Bloc judging? A bloc of two? Give me a break!

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