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Thread: Why do people look to junior events for clues?

  1. #31
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    Here's a compilation of World Junior results (at least the ones I have). Skaters who have gone on to medal at Senior Worlds are in bold type. Many skaters who didn't win medals at Worlds may have medaled at the GP and/or Euros/4CC.


    JUNIOR WORLDS
    1994
    MEN: Weiss [age 17], Shigematsu, Michael; (4) Yagudin [age 13], (11) Kulik [age 16]
    LADIES: Kwan [age 13], Czako, Slutskaya [age 14]

    1995
    MEN: Kulik, Cerez, Suzuki; (14) Goebel [age 14]
    LADIES: Slutskaya, Ivanova, Czako; (4) Lipinski [age 12]

    1996
    MEN: Yagudin, Honda, Guo; (6) Plushenko [age 13], (7) Goebel
    LADIES: Ivanova, Pingatcheva, Kanaeva; (4) Suguri [age 15], (5) Lipinski Note: Lipinski was 15th at ’96 Senior Worlds.
    PAIRS: Maksuta/Zhovnirsky, Fionenko/Marchenko, Hartsell/Hartsell
    DANCE: Davydova/Kostomarov, Delobel/Schoenfelder, Gudina/Kurkudym; (9) Belova/Staviyski

    1997
    MEN: Plushenko, Goebel, Guo
    LADIES: Vogel, Sokolova, Ivanova; (4) Suguri
    DANCE: Ulanova/Stifounin, Potdykova/Petukhov, Blasowska/Lozubek

    1998
    MEN: Delmore, Davydov, Yunfei Li; (4) Klimkin [age 18]
    LADIES: Soldatova, Ivanova, Volchkova
    PAIRS: Obertas/Palamarchuk, Nikolaeva/Sokolov, Maksuta/Zhovnirsky
    DANCE: Joseph/Butler, Faiella/Milo, Potdykova/Petukhov

    1999
    MEN: Klimkin, Restencourt, Takeuchi
    LADIES: Timoshenko, Hughes [age 13], Volchkova
    PAIRS: Obertas/Palamarchuk, Handy/Binnebose, Maksuta/Zhovnirsky, (8) Pang/Tong
    DANCE: Silverstein/Pekarek, Faiella/Milo, Romaniuta/Barantsev

    2000
    MEN: Lindemann, Restencourt, Savoie; (4) Klimkin, (10) Lambiel [age 14] Note: Restencourt was 9th at 2000 Senior Worlds
    LADIES: Kirk, Stellato, Meier; (6) Cohen (7) Nakano
    PAIRS: Savchenko/Morozov, Obertas/Palamarchuk, Shapiro/Sokolov; (4) Zhang/Zhang
    DANCE: Romaniuta/Barantsev, Nussear/Forsyth, Belbin/Agosto

    2001
    MEN: Weir, Lysacek, Restencourt; (5) Lambiel, (7) Buttle, (11) Shubin, (12) Dobrin, (16) Van Der Perren
    LADIES: Oblasova, McDonough, Poykio; (4) Nakano, (8) Rochette, (11) Kostner
    PAIRS: Zhang/Zhang, Kawaguchi/Markuntsov, Roth/McPherson
    DANCE: Romaniuta/Barantsev, Belbin/Agosto, Khaliavina/Shabalin

    2002
    MEN: Takahashi, Van Der Perren, Timochenko; (14) Griazev
    LADIES: McDonough, Nakano, Ando; (4) Liang, (5) Rochette, (9) Ota, (10) Kostner
    PAIRS: Riabchuk/Zakharov, Karbovskaya/Slavnov, Ding/Ren
    DANCE: Belbin/Agosto, Khaliavina/Shabalin, Romanovskaya/Grachev

    2003
    MEN: Shubin, Lysacek, Preaubert; (5) Dobrin
    LADIES: Ota, Ando, Kostner; (6) Liang
    PAIRS: Zhang/Zhang, Ding/Ren, Don/Hunt
    DANCE: Domnina/Shabalin, Hoffmann/Elek, Romanovskaya/Grachev (11) Matthews/Zavozin

    2004
    MEN: Griazev, Lysacek, Brauninger; (8) Dobrin, (11) Oda (20) Othman
    LADIES: Ando, Meissner, Taylor; (12) Gedevanishvili, (16) Korpi
    PAIRS: Shestakova/Lebedev, Dube/Davison, Mukhortova/Trankov
    DANCE: Romanovskaya/Grachev, Hoffmann/Elek, Matthews/Zavozin; (4) Mikhailova/Sergeev, (11) Virtue/Moir, (13) Davis/White

    2005
    MEN: Oda, Pensero, Dobrin;
    LADIES: Mao Asada, Kim, E. Hughes; (4) Meissner, (5) Gedevanishvili
    PAIRS: Mukhortova/Trankov, Dube/Davison, Kokoreva/Golovkin, (9) Vlassov/Meekins
    DANCE: Matthews/Zavozin, Virtue/Moir, Gorshkova/Tkachenko; (5) Mikhailova/Sergeev

    2006
    MEN: Kozuka, Voronov, Ponsero
    LADIES: Kim, Mao Asada, Zukowski,
    PAIRS: Vlassov/Meekins, Moyle/Seitz, Krasilnokova/Bezmaternikh
    DANCE: Virtue/Moir, Mikhailova/Sergeev, Davis/White

    Some notes based on previous remarks:

    Tara Lipinski was probably having a bad year when she finished 5th at JW in 1996, because she went on to Senior Worlds and finished 15th.

    Vincent Restencourt had competed at Junior Worlds twice before receiving the first of 3 JW medals. In 2000, he finished 9th at Senior Worlds after medaling at JW; 2001 was his last year of eligibility, and he would have been 18 or 19 to Weir's 16 and Lysacek's and Lambiel's 15. Lambiel had a good QR and SP, but was 7th in the FS, finishing 5th overall. But 5th was a big improvement over Lambiel's 10th place in 2000. Lambiel did not compete in 2002 and may have been experiencing problems with his knee at that time.

    It seems to me from looking at the JW results that many medalists (and non-medalists as well) have gone on to success at the senior level. Some medalists proved to be early bloomers who either faded as their bodies matured, or who could not remain competitive with their seniors.

    One interesting observations: the many partner changes in both Pairs and Ice Dance. Many halves of the Pairs medalists went on to success with other partners at the Senior level. And it is truly amazing how many Russian Junior Pairs and Ice Dance teams disappeared off the radar after medaling as juniors. Their splits and re-pairings are just as or more numerous than those of US teams who have had nowhere near as much success.

  2. #32
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    Thanks for the list chuckm, it was very interesting. I still think junior events are not well judged at all compared to senior events, watching them on TV the years I did, and I stopped watching them after 2002 for that reason.

  3. #33
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    Slutskayafan - do you have any examples or proof of parents and or coaches deciding the outcome of junior worlds?

    Its an international panel of judges - how exactly does the skaters parent or coach get a mojirty of international judges to give tyheir child the win?

    Amt

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
    Like I said senior judging is not perfect but atleast it has some semblance of credability and is not just mommies, daddies, and coaches making up the results in group gatherings with coaches in the stands.



    Intersting how Tara Lipinski though blew by the same Slutskaya and Butyrskaya, you know the Tara that was 4th in the World junior long program even landing all her difficult jumps.
    Because she matured as skater!!! Your arguments make no sense you seem to think that a skater on the junior circuit being judged differently on the senior circuit is a sign of corrupt judging on the junior circuit (and amazingly not on the senior circuit) but don't seem to entertain the idea that it might just possibly be because those same junior skaters skate differently in seniors!

    Ant

  5. #35
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    The other thing is that Juniors tend to be very inconsistent, skating very well in one event and bombing at another. Some develop skills very early and skate well, then go into a transition period where they struggle with their bodies due to growth issues. That happened to Irina Slutskaya in 1998-1999 and in a smaller way, to Michelle Kwan in 1997. Some never regain or further develop their skills after the transition or suffer injuries, such as Louann Donovan, Jenny Kirk and Deanna Stellato.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by antmanb
    Slutskayafan - do you have any examples or proof of parents and or coaches deciding the outcome of junior worlds?

    Its an international panel of judges - how exactly does the skaters parent or coach get a mojirty of international judges to give tyheir child the win?

    Amt
    I have read books from former skaters and former judges(although mostly disgrunted judges who write a book) who speak of it happening when referring back to junior days or junior events. I doubt they make it up, and watching how the junior events are judged on TV it becomes believable to me as well.

  7. #37
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    In other words, slutskayafan, you have no evidence to back up what you say. Books by disgruntled former judges and skaters with an axe to grind are not evidence but hearsay. The same parties grumble about Senior events just as much, if not more, than they do about Juniors.

    Judging is far from perfect, we all know that. But I don't see that Junior judging is any worse than what happens at the Senior level, and it is Senior judging that has the impact to make or break skating careers.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by antmanb
    Because she matured as skater!!! Your arguments make no sense you seem to think that a skater on the junior circuit being judged differently on the senior circuit is a sign of corrupt judging on the junior circuit (and amazingly not on the senior circuit) but don't seem to entertain the idea that it might just possibly be because those same junior skaters skate differently in seniors!

    Ant
    Really so an example like Tonya Szewcenko coming 4th at Junior Worlds with the same performances(I saw both events, they were almost identicle skates)that she managed 3rd at the Senior Worlds, would be due to maturing as a skater? Sorry the events were only 3 months apart, and the month before that Szewcenko had won Nations Cup over World Champion Biaul. None of her Senior performances all year jibe with her landing all her jumps cleanly in the short, 5 of her 6 triples cleanly in the long and being beaten badly by Kwan, Czako(who landed only 3 triples in the long, and is only a jumper), and Slutskaya, that year.

    In the case of Tara in 96 I did watch the junior event, and she did clearly outskate both Pingacheva and Kanaeva in the long program based just on that PROGRAM and what their abilities were at that time as well. Remember although Tara was 15th at Worlds she did come top 10 in the free skate didnt she? Her junior Worlds long program was equaly well skated to her 96 senior Worlds, and much better then her 96 Senior Nationals performance. I shudder to think where Pingacheva and Kanaeva would have placed at Worlds, when you look at Ivanova(who was miles better then both of them, and won the World juniors that year)and her showings on the senior circuit that year.

    LIke I said most fans want to be naive and believe junior judging is legit in the same way senior judging(despite some controversy still existing) so I am not going to change peoples minds on that. I am not one of the naive ones however, and I look at the Junior Worlds as having the legitimacy of "Ice Wars" after watching it the 10 years or so I watched it, and how it was judged. If I watch it is to enjoy the skating, and laugh at the silly embarassment of the judging(although occasionaly an event is judged right).

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm
    In other words, slutskayafan, you have no evidence to back up what you say. Books by disgruntled former judges and skaters with an axe to grind are not evidence but hearsay. The same parties grumble about Senior events just as much, if not more, than they do about Juniors.

    Judging is far from perfect, we all know that. But I don't see that Junior judging is any worse than what happens at the Senior level, and it is Senior judging that has the impact to make or break skating careers.
    Junior judging is no worse then Senior judging, now that is a laugher.

    So you find it believable that Szewcenko coming 4th at the 94 Junior Worlds with the same performance she came 3rd at the 94 Senior Worlds; while somebody like Kwan who was lower in the top 10 at Senior Worlds(she fell in the short, but was 8th in the long with a better long then she had at World juniors) would win the same event in a cakewalk; and somebody like Czako landing only 3 triples at Junior Worlds(and she is only a jumper)who was out of the top 10 at Senior Worlds that same year, would be 2nd at the same event, is something to the extent of ridiculousness that could ever happen on the senior circuit?

    Do you also think at a Senior event you would ever seen Weir even doing a harder jump combo then Lambiel, miss a jump and still place over Lambiel in the short; or Lysacek and Lambiel skate cleanly with the same jumps and Lysacek come ahead; as happened in the 2001 World short program?

    Do you honestly believe Tara Lipinski could ever land 7 triples in the long including one for her classic triple-triple loop combos and place out of the top 3 in the long program at JUNIOR Worlds even at the point of her immaturity she was at, at a SENIOR event.

    Like I said if I could bet my house, for a second one if I were right, on not even one of those things ever happening if they could be hypothetical transferred to a senior panel I would.

    I have some pairs and dance examples that I could find back on tape I am sure as well, of outrageous idiocies that go beyond anything you could possably ever see on the senior circuit.

  10. #40
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    In other words, slutskayafan, you have no evidence to back up what you say. Books by disgruntled former judges and skaters with an axe to grind are not evidence but hearsay. The same parties grumble about Senior events just as much, if not more, than they do about Juniors.

    I concede the heresay part, but why would numerous people involved in skating formerly just make things up that arent true? Would it be to create controversy to get people to read that book, what would be the benefit? You are right the books I have read grumble about Senior events too, I give you that, however they refer to complicated processes of federations making deals and judges swapping of votes for their country; as opposed to just mothers and fathers talking to coaches and junior team leaders in the stands, who then go over and talk to judges, and talking about where htey want their kids to place. The way they refer to Senior Worlds in the books I have read are different then the way they refer to Junior Worlds as far as the type of manipulation that is done.

  11. #41
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    You are entitled to your opinion, and you can bet anything you want on your beliefs, but you sound like a conspiracy theorist, and your assertions are unprovable.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm
    You are entitled to your opinion, and you can bet anything you want on your beliefs, but you sound like a conspiracy theorist, and your assertions are unprovable.
    You did not answer my question on any of the exampes I gave though, could you imagine the examples I mentioned happening on the senior circuit? If not wouldnt that be saying something. I wish I had some pairs and dance tapes with me so I could flick back to a couple of the horror stories from those as well.

  13. #43
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    However, from your statements about 2001 Junior Worlds, slutskayafan, NOW it becomes crystal clear to me why you are so negative about both Weir and Lysacek. All this time I thought it was because they were US skaters, but I see that it was really because they had the temerity to beat Lambiel way back when.

    Makes just as much sense as your conspiracy theories.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm
    However, from your statements about 2001 Junior Worlds, slutskayafan, NOW it becomes crystal clear to me why you are so negative about both Weir and Lysacek. All this time I thought it was because they were US skaters, but I see that it was really because they had the temerity to beat Lambiel way back when.

    Makes just as much sense as your conspiracy theories.
    Actually that is not true, I liked Weir and Lysacek fine up until 2005, and I wasnt even a Lambiel fan until 2004. All three were neutral to me back then, just like Szewcenko is neutral to me in 94 but it is still embarassing for a World Senior medalist to not medal at lowly Junior Worlds with the same performances.. That perception of yours is as flawed as your perception that I hate all American skaters, when there are only 3 or 4 I dislike, and I used to defend Todd Eldrdedge, Punsalen/Swallon, and Ina/Dungen in many events I felt they were "robbed", particularly Eldredge vs Stoko I felt Eldredge was robbed often against.. It is amazing how little you show to know me yet profess to know me so well.

    I wish some of my pre-98 postings on how Eldredge, Punsalen/
    Swallow, and Ina/Dungen were being robbed of higher placings in various events, and how underrated they were since they would easily put waste to your theory of my hating American skaters.

  15. #45
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    I know you only based on what you write, slutskayafan, and there's a lot of vitriol and hyperbole in what you write. You seem to feel that you are always right and everyone else is always wrong, even your outlandish opinions that have no incontrovertible evidence.
    Last edited by chuckm; 06-05-2006 at 09:59 AM.

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