So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 3, 2006

Red Dog said:
A little too soon, possibly? Sounds like a December/January question to me.

It's not a prediction thread. Just your idea who is the favorite and who is the underdog BEFORE the competition. NOT WHO IS GOING TO WIN. duh.

Anyway, knowing what I do RIGHT NOW, at US Nats how can the reigning World champ NOT be the favorite? Come on, now. I think it also depends on how she does that season. But I think the majority of the press/fans will be on Kimmie's side. If Cohen decides to show up, I think it will be played up as a "healthy rivalry".

Here's some facts you seem to be forgetting. Sasha is the defending champion and the Olympics silver medalist.

Hype has nothing to do with who is the favorite and definitely means nothing to the judges. duh.

Every skater has pressure. It's how one handles it that counts. What happened to Sasha at Worlds, after being lst in the SP? You just don't know who will be the favorite and who will be the underdog.

As for the Japanese I wouldn't count anyone out. Yes Miki has had a bad season but that doesn't mean a comeback "can't happen". Mao's got pressure, Arakawa is out of the picture, and Suguri wants it all.

Words of wisdom. Are you saying only Mao has pressure and can't handle it?
duh.

I dunno. I seem to be losing interest pretty quickly. No one worth watching, really (IMO).

Maybe (your favorite clarifier): Sasha will skate and be magnificent. I think then it will be a happy day for you with more interest. She will be the defending Champ. Does that give her pressure (your favorite put down).

Joe

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 3, 2006

MKFSfan said:
I think is some ways, if Sasha remains eligible, there will be MORE pressure, not less, to succeed. She can't let the "young ones" pass her by, and I believe she will be concerned about that. I just don't know if she has that "underdog" fight in her. Last Worlds, she was an underdog to Irina and it was OK because she KNEW she wasn't going to beat Irina. IF Sasha comes blazing out in the SP, expect HUGE hype. Yes, Peggy has jumped on the Kimmie bandwagon, but she'll hop right back on Sasha's if she competes. Until/unless Kimmie consistently beats Sasha, everyone will consider Sasha a front runner at Nationals, no matter if she doesn't give a clean performance all fall.

Interesting comments. I think Sasha is tired of skating. It has brought her to a certain level of fame and I think she wants to move on. JMO.

Joe

Spun Silver · Jun 3, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Japansese Nationals:

Mens favorite-Onda

Honda? (thought he retired) Oda?

slutskayafan21 · Jun 3, 2006

Spun Silver said:
Honda? (thought he retired) Oda?

Sorry I meant Oda.

R.D. · Jun 3, 2006

It's not a prediction thread. Just your idea who is the favorite and who is the underdog BEFORE the competition. NOT WHO IS GOING TO WIN. duh.

You know, that's exactly what I meant. MY view is that it's basically what it is (a prediction thread). Not predictions as to who will win (duh) but predictions as to who will be the favorite and who will be the underdog. Now, why do I think they are predictions? Because although I can make a healthy conjecture (Kimmie will be the favorite due to her World championship) one can't put a REAL solid foot down because things can happen during the start of the season to completely turn things around. Get my drift?

Every skater has pressure. It's how one handles it that counts. What happened to Sasha at Worlds, after being lst in the SP? You just don't know who will be the favorite and who will be the underdog.

Exactly. But not that it was so unpredictable. One can basically count on her to falter in the FS, anyway.

Maybe (your favorite clarifier): Sasha will skate and be magnificent. I think then it will be a happy day for you with more interest. She will be the defending Champ. Does that give her pressure (your favorite put down).

And Just maybe you're stuffing words in my mouth that I wouldn't normally say, and thoughts in my head that I wouldn't normally think. Good day.

R.D. · Jun 3, 2006

Now back to the topic:

Last Worlds, she was an underdog to Irina and it was OK because she KNEW she wasn't going to beat Irina. IF Sasha comes blazing out in the SP, expect HUGE hype. Yes, Peggy has jumped on the Kimmie bandwagon, but she'll hop right back on Sasha's if she competes. Until/unless Kimmie consistently beats Sasha, everyone will consider Sasha a front runner at Nationals, no matter if she doesn't give a clean performance all fall.

You know, good points. I see this a little differently, though. The type of "hype" that Cohen will be getting if she does do a great SP is "Will she finally get it right this time?" THAT is the question that a lot of people will be asking themselves (and maybe even her). But if it's US Nationals we're talking about here, there are still some others- namely Liang, Czisny, and others who will "fill in the gap" so to speak. But the main stars would be (assuming Cohen will be there) Cohen and Meissner. This is another reason that I think the underdog/favorite thing is partly a prediciton- we don't even know for sure who will show up. I'm assuming that Cohen won't be there and Meissner will be the lone star. But anyone can slip up and fall.

MKFSfan · Jun 3, 2006

Red Dog said:
Now back to the topic:

You know, good points. I see this a little differently, though. The type of "hype" that Cohen will be getting if she does do a great SP is "Will she finally get it right this time?" THAT is the question that a lot of people will be asking themselves (and maybe even her).

I agree. Maybe it would help if

1-Sasha comes in under the radar as an underdog-sort of how she did in Turin-all the focus was on the Russian sweep and Michelle's WD. She hid out and didn't show up at all the practices.

2-Sasha does not skate a great SP.

...then I wonder how she'd do. Still, the pressure of never skating clean and of not winning Nats over Michelle AND never winning Worlds/Olympics has got to be weighing her down.

hockeyfan228 · Jun 3, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
hockeyfan228 do you think either Cohen or Kwan will even be there to compete?

Kwan, no. She's struggling in COI now, and I don't even know if she'll give her body at least six months off to heal properly.

Cohen, I'm not sure what's going through her mind or what SOI has planned for the future. I think if she wants to compete this year, US Nats will be her 2006-7 season debut. Although I have to wonder if there are any contractual obligations she has for cheeze if she doesn't join SOI or announce that's she's a pro.

R.D. · Jun 3, 2006

1-Sasha comes in under the radar as an underdog-sort of how she did in Turin-all the focus was on the Russian sweep and Michelle's WD. She hid out and didn't show up at all the practices.

Didn't help her in Turin...may as well have come out and had a field day with the press.

2-Sasha does not skate a great SP.

...then I wonder how she'd do.

I don't think she "skated a great SP" at the Worlds. She just did what was necessary to take the lead. She was better in Turin. Still, all that mattered was that she was first. Maybe a better way to rephrase the above would be "2. Sasha is NOT first after the SP." Still, she was 2nd after the SP at 05 nationals and still fell in the long. So- my conjecture is that position has nothing to do with it. But her confidence has EVERYTHING to do with it.

JMO

R.D. · Jun 3, 2006

Kwan, no. She's struggling in COI now

umm, reports? Where did this one come from?

slutskayafan21 · Jun 3, 2006

hockeyfan228 said:
Kwan, no. She's struggling in COI now, and I don't even know if she'll give her body at least six months off to heal properly.

Cohen, I'm not sure what's going through her mind or what SOI has planned for the future. I think if she wants to compete this year, US Nats will be her 2006-7 season debut. Although I have to wonder if there are any contractual obligations she has for cheeze if she doesn't join SOI or announce that's she's a pro.

Kewl thanks. I was wondering why you did not even mention them while mentioning all of Taylor, Liang, Hughes, et al.

MKFSfan · Jun 3, 2006

Sorry, RD, I meant to imply situation1 + situation2=what kind of LP??? I agree the closest situation to use is Nationals 2005-MK was the story of the week, the whole tying the record and all. She was leading going into the SP, and favored to win. Yet, Sasha couldn't capitalize on the pressure that sort of did get to Michelle. So, nevermind!

R.D. · Jun 3, 2006

exactly. That's why I think it's more of a confidence issue for her.

slutskayafan21 · Jun 3, 2006

Well next years Nationals around the World will be interesting.

Will Sandhu, if he continues, be finaly able to win back the title from hated rival Buttle.

Will Lambiel be able to upset Othman for the Swiss mens title considering the judges hatred of him.

Will anybody be able to challenge Meissner for the U.S womens title if Kwan or Cohen dont show.

Will Weir be able to upset Lysacek and defend his U.S mens title.

Will Moir/Virtue be able to rise quickly enough to upset Dubreuil/Lauzon for the Canadian dance title in only 1 more year.

Will Suguri be able to upset Asada at Japanese Nationals and show the veterans still have some kick left.

Mathman · Jun 3, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Will Sandhu, if he continues, be finaly able to win back the title from hated rival Buttle.

No. Eman's seething and implacable hatred will cause bad karma and make him fall on his triple Axel.

Will Lambiel be able to upset Othman for the Swiss mens title considering the judges hatred of him.

Lambiel's a goner. The Satanic judges hate him so much they will take back his two world championships.

Will Weir be able to upset Lysacek and defend his U.S mens title.

USFS hates Weir so much they won't even let him skate.

Will Moir/Virtue be able to rise quickly enough to upset Dubreuil/Lauzon for the Canadian dance title in only 1 more year.

These two teams hate each other so much that they will both refuse to take the ice if the other is in the building. The title goes vacant.

That's my take, and I'm sticking with it.

Ladskater · Jun 3, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Sandhu will retire I think.

Hmmm...I am not so sure about that. After his Olympic placement, I would have said probably, but he did show everyone he can do it at the Worlds. I think Sandhu is still out on this one. He did not make any announcements following worlds. Then again he is so unpredictable - I may be wrong!!!!

76olympics · Jun 3, 2006

What about US pairs? I know Katie/Garrett and Aaron/Marcy are out of the game now, but I believe that Inoue and Baldwin will win again if they keep the momentum from this season. NNN and Leftheris will be strong contenders also and I think they will be supreme after Inoue and Baldwin retire (which will probably be after this season, I guess. I like them and will miss them though. Rena is so plucky!)

Mathman · Jun 3, 2006

But seriously...:chorus:

I do think that it is way to early to make any sensible prediction about who will emerge as a favorite or an underdog come next winter.

It could happen, for instance, that Kimmie might be soundly trounced in her Grand Prix events, like she was last year when she lost to Mao by 30 points at Eric Bompard and didn't make the GP final.

In the meantime, Katy Taylor might build on her last outing, where she won the gold medal at Four Continents. By the time U.S. Nationals rolls around Katy could be the favorite.

To me, the question of who will emerge as the favorite and who will be viewed as the underdog will depend a lot on whether Kimmie shows reliable tripe-triples throughout the season (I don't think she'll go for the triple Axel again).

To tell the truth, I don't see how we can separate the question of who will emerge as the favorite from that of making predictions about how the season might go.

Personally, I think Sasha will compete in Spokane and as reigning U.S. champion will (as Michelle did all those years) wear the favorite's mantle until someone snatches it off her.

JMO.

MM

R.D. · Jun 3, 2006

To me, who will emerge as the favorite and who will be viewed as the underdog will depend a lot on whether Kimmie shows reliable tripe-triples throughout the season (I don't think she'll go for the triple Axel again).

To tell the truth, I don't see how we can separate the question of who will emerge as the favorite from that of making predictions about how the season might go.

you said it better than I did. But basically, I feel the same way.

Ladskater · Jun 3, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Well next years Nationals around the World will be interesting.

Will Sandhu, if he continues, be finaly able to win back the title from hated rival Buttle.

Will Lambiel be able to upset Othman for the Swiss mens title considering the judges hatred of him.

Will anybody be able to challenge Meissner for the U.S womens title if Kwan or Cohen dont show.

Will Weir be able to upset Lysacek and defend his U.S mens title.

Will Moir/Virtue be able to rise quickly enough to upset Dubreuil/Lauzon for the Canadian dance title in only 1 more year.

Will Suguri be able to upset Asada at Japanese Nationals and show the veterans still have some kick left.

Where do you get the idea that Emanuel hates Jeff? They have a rivalry on the ice, as all skaters do but there is no proof that they hate each other.

If Dubruil and Lauzon continue no doubt they will capture another title, but Moir and Virtue will no doubt be their rivals.

So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

Joesitz (RIP)

Joesitz (RIP)

Spun Silver

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

R.D.

R.D.

MKFSfan

hockeyfan228

R.D.

R.D.

slutskayafan21

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MKFSfan

R.D.

slutskayafan21

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Mathman

Ladskater

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76olympics

Mathman

R.D.

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