Will Weir ever win a World medal?

Joesitz said:

MM - didn't we (the forum) discuss the pre-Olympic Worlds and realized that the winner of such events is not usually the Oly winner.

There are exceptions, of course. Hamil, Baiul, Flemming, Button, Jenkins. who else?

Joe

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I think the Pattern was that more female skaters have won the pre Olympic worlds to their Olympic title.

In your list Hamill did not win her pre Olympic worlds (she won the post Olympic worlds) it was de Leuw who won '75 worlds.

I only delved as far back as the Mens and Ladies singles winners back to '76 Olympics and found that only one man managed the feat - Hamilton, no other man has.

As far as the women are concerned its just short of 50/50 and the ones that did win their pre-Olympic words all cam e in a streak:

Witt in '88
Yamaguchi in '92
Baiul in '94
Lipinski in '98

Ant

Thanks Ant.

It does show that Pre Oly Worlds, is not necessarily an auger of Oly gold.

Joe

For the men it looks like you dont want to win the pre-Olympic Worlds if you want to win the Olympics. For women it looked for awhile like you did, but that has changed around a bit with the last two Olympic bronzes going to the reigning World Champs.

Joesitz said:

Thanks Ant.

It does show that Pre Oly Worlds, is not necessarily an auger of Oly gold.

Joe

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And even more so i'd say for the men its a down right curse!! Maybe it was a good thing for Pluschenko that he got injured and had to withdraw from 2005 Worlds, otherwise that curse might have struck and left him without Olympic gold!!

In all honesty i think if Plushy had competed he would have been there with Hamilton as pre Oly world winner.

Ant

About these statistical trends, as we are constantly reminded in ads for investment schemes, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Not important, but it is very odd how MM's old post (and several others) keeps showing up as made "today." Is it just this forum?

Just to keep on topic, I'll reiterate that Johnny is sure to medal at Worlds - hopefully this year!

i dont think (yet) that he has strong skills....
artistically of course yes
but footwork and difficulty....eh
maybe....

This year the mens is wide open. Lambiel probably goes into a quadrennial with an edge no the others, but that is all but negated by his injuries this summer probably, so 7 or 8 guys go in with an equal shot of establishing themselves. The pecking order heading into the next Olympics will start being established now. I am not saying thing cant change 1 or 2 years out from the Olympics, but guys who start establishing themselves higher in the pecking order now will have a big advantage, and probably have to lose their spots through poor performances like Joubert did after his 2004 year.

I voted that Johnny will win at least one world medal. I think Johnny is a very beautiful skater and is capable of standing on the podium at every competition.

However, I agree with the poster who thinks Johnny should concentrate on his skating instead of saying outlandish things and trying his best to be in the spot light. These distractions are taking away from his concentration. It seems to me that being dedicated to skating and keeping your mind on your job is the best way to become a champion. Johnny just seems so full of himself and so impressed with the attention he seems to generate that he forgets the real focus. Perhaps when he sheds the chip on his shoulder and gets down to business, he can become a succesful skater.

Dizzy

Johnny is the most talented male skater right now. But I doubt if he could win. I am afraid of him being like "Sasha Cohen The Second". He doesn't have enough confidence and consistency on ice. I hope I will be proved wrong. I really, really wish he could win.

I dont think there is any chance of Weir ever winning a World medal now. There are too many guys better skaters then him or better competitors. People say he is young and has lots of time but he is not really young anymore. Joubert is same age I believe, Lambiel and Lysacek are a year younger, Takahashi is two years younger, Oda is three years younger. Only Buttle of the top guys is older then him by two years. He is not younger then most of his rivals, most are same age or a bit younger. He is not this young pup with all the time ahead of him, he has the next 4 years probably and that is it, and guys his age or younger, and many of them more accomplished then he, with the same goals.

Lambiel is both a better skater and better competitor then Weir. Lambiel of all the other top guys is most out of reach for Weir. Unless Weir has a competition where he is really "on" and Lambiel has a total disaester in both short and long at the same competition Weir is really "on" like he had at Skate Canada Weir will never beat Lambiel again. Joubert is not a better overall skater then Weir, but is a much better jumper with more powerful stroking and overall skating, and is better competitor since even though he bombs alot, he can put it all together as well and put no-mistake events together. He is inconsistent and relies so much on his jumps, if he bombs his jumps and Weir has a good event Weir might come out ahead, but anytime Jouberts hits his big jumps he will beat Weir each time no matter what Johnny does. Oda is a better skater and better competitor then Weir already. He is already posting scores Weir never has, Oda posted an 81 at Skate America, Weir's highest ever score was the 80 at the Olympics under a very high scoring panel so should be taken with a grain of salt. Oda has never done a clean long with 2 triple axels and he has already posted scores higher then Weir's 147 PB in the long. Oda is not as polished as Weir but he is more interesting and crowd pleasing, does harder spins, and has bigger jumps. He does many clean shorts and almost clean longs though. Lysacek may not be a better skater then Weir but is a much better competitor and is earning the judges respect with his consistent skating which is leading to high scores in things like PCS which you build by building respect when your skating itself is not of the best quality. Lysacek has surpassed Weir as the top U.S skater, no matter who holds the US title, the only event Johnny has beaten Evan in the last 2 years has been the U.S Nationals.

Buttle is injured right now. He is a question marks but when he was healthy he was regularly outscoring Weir on all his best strengths like PCS, spins, footwork.
His jumps are not any more inconsistent then Weir, and he maximizes jump scores in the long program much better then Weir. He is a similar competitor but better skater then Weir. Takahashi is similar inconsistenty to Weir, but more skating ability when he is "on".


Lambiel-better skater and competitor
Joubert-stronger jumper, more powerful, better competitor
Oda-better skater and competitor
Lysacek-better competitor, more respected by judges due to competitive strength
Buttle-better skater, similar competitor
Takahashi-better skater, similar competor


There are too many guys over him, too much would have to fall into place for him to win a world medal. He is already as old or older, and has been near the top as long or longer then most of his rivals.

I think Weir definately has a shot at a World medal! I mean who would have guessed that Kimmie Meissner would win World's? Or even Sarah Hughes in 2002 Olympics? We all know it's possible, it just depends what happens on the day. Weir definately has the potential for a wold medal. If he just sticks to his planned programs, keeps training those spins he hates so much and works on his consistency he's got a grrrrreat shot. Not saying that the others don't have a shot though. It just depends on who wants it the most. Johnny Weir has good technique and artistry, a dangerous combo in men's skating. As far as I'm concerned, go Johnny, go! .......would like to see Jeff Buttle healthy for world's as well! I love his style and flow on the ice.

moi said:

If he just sticks to his planned programs, keeps training those spins he hates so much and works on his consistency he's got a grrrrreat shot. Not saying that the others don't have a shot though. It just depends on who wants it the most. Johnny Weir has good technique and artistry, a dangerous combo in men's skating. As far as I'm concerned, go Johnny, go! .......would like to see Jeff Buttle healthy for world's as well! I love his style and flow on the ice.

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When was the last time he stuck to a planned program and skated it well? The 2004-05 season, that was a long time ago. Like Lambiel he seems to be miffed, justifiably IMO, about the regulations around spins, and the judges not giving GOE credit to the better spinners, so ends up sticking to his own ideas and doing lower level spins by the rules, except his are even lower then Lambiel's usually.

I could see Weir winning a World medal before he retires after 2010 but it would probably be an inspired effort from him and a crash and burn by most of the field to get there. As time goes on it seems more and more doubtful. As Jason pointed out he is not the young up and coming guy among the current elite anymore.

I also agree with those who believed Lysacek has surpassed him as the top American. Anytime who has seen my previous postings here knows I cant stand Lysacek as a skater, and find him one of the most overrrated and overscored skaters I have ever seen, but I am not blind to some forms of reality either. Lysacek's showings in international competitions since 2005 Worlds, the respect(inflated or not)he is getting by judges, his far superior drive and focus compared to Weir, and his willingess to examine the COP and squeeze every possable point out of his programs puts him clearly above Weir in the pecking order right now, both in the U.S and also internationaly. Weir's only claim to being the top U.S skater now is his win at Nationals, which came by the narrowest of margin with Lysacek typicaly making a big mistake in the short, but untypicaly making a couple big mistakes in the long, and Weir having his best competiton of the year. Not nearly enough to overcome beating Weir at the last 3 World or Olympic events, outdoing Weir the last 2 years on the GP circuit, and just generaly being a much more consistent and threatening skater then Weir on the international scene. The last time Weir looked superior to Lysacek was the 2005 Nationals. He hasnt really since and might never again. If you are clearly only the 2nd best American, a debatable opinion but one I have nonetheless, I doubt you will be on the podium often at the World level. With the depth of competition from Europe, Japan, and Canada 2 U.S mens skaters on the podium is an unlikely occurence.

slutskayafan21 said:

When was the last time he stuck to a planned program and skated it well?

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Johnny sticks to planned short programs, and skates them well, frequently.

In 2004 and to some extent in 2005, he could skate clean long programs.

If things can change that much in a year--i.e. the bad 2006 season--what's to say they can't change back just as quickly?

Miki Ando just made a comeback from placing 15th in the Olympics. Johnny was 5th.

debdelilah said:

Johnny sticks to planned short programs, and skates them well, frequently.

In 2004 and to some extent in 2005, he could skate clean long programs.

If things can change that much in a year--i.e. the bad 2006 season--what's to say they can't change back just as quickly?

Miki Ando just made a comeback from placing 15th in the Olympics. Johnny was 5th.

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You raise some good points but we will just have to agree to disagree.

It is much easier to stick to a planned short program then a planned long program when you seemingly are a free spirit who has to experiment. Since he has not come close to doing so under COP in the long program since 2005 NHK it seems doubtful to expect it to me.

You mention 2004 and alot of 2005, but even in 2004 when he had 3 clean programs at Worlds he did not medal, finishing a distant 5th. Little known Lindemann won the bronze without a clean quad in the free skate, Lambiel took 4th(some thought should have been 3rd) with a fall in the short, and no triple axel in either qualifying or the final free skate. His countryman Evan Lysacek manged 3rd twice at Worlds, almost entirely without a quad and not even skating totally clean, something Weir with 3 perfect performance was not able to even come that close to in 2004. In 2005 he did very well on the GP circuit but there was really nobody to beat-Plushenko was only in 1 event Weir was in(beat him handily of course, like he does Lambiel and everyone else), Lambiel missed the whole GP circuit that year with an injury and keep in mind Weir has not beaten Lambiel since before 2004 Worlds, Joubert was struggling majorly during the GP season both in 2005 and 2006, Oda and Takahashi and Lysacek were not viewed as contenders yet, Honda and Goebel were often away injured but also dissapearing as threats, Buttle was in none of Weirs events and keep in mind Weir has also not beaten Buttle anytime the last 2 seasons. It would be interesting to see him skate as well as he did in the 2005 GP season and see how well he could do, but he didnt really have to beat anybody that GP season show it provides little evidence either way for me.

Miki Ando regaining her old form has the consistency doing triple-triples which is a skill to set her apart. Asada is not as consistent a jumper as she was last year, Kim is not the most consistent jumper, Meissner is actually a pretty inconsistent jumper for the most part. Nobody has a better triple lutz-triple loop combo then Ando when she is on.

While Weir's artistry used to stand out there are many guys who can now match or better it and match or better him in PCS scores-Lambiel, Takahashi, Buttle, even Lysacek. There are obviously better jumpers like Lambiel, Joubert, Oda, and better spinners as well. His footwork does not score the highest of the top guys. I dont see what skills set him apart anymore, and he is the most inconsistent of all the top guys, other then maybe Takahashi, right now.

Also how was Weir's year last year a "bad year". He won the U.S title over Lysacek who many favored to beat him, he was 3rd at Cup of Russia behind Plushenko and Lambiel. He was 5th at the Olympics, well since Plushenko, Lambiel, Joubert, Buttle, all went into the Olympics favored over him and Takahashi, Lysacek, Sandhu with about equal chances to him that is not a bad or worse then expected result. He certainly was not favored to win a medal. Only his World Championships result was below expectations of him but he was injured at Worlds.

Well, I realize that this probably has nothing to do with the actual poll (and WRT that, I think that there is a decent chance that he will medal at Worlds within the next year or two). While I think Plushenko is great skater and deserved every medal he won, purely on techincal ability--nothing he ever did moved me emotionally the way the way Weir's skating has done. Same with Lambiel, Joubert, etc.

In other words, who is the "best" skater is highly subjective.

I hope he does, but I don't see it happening this year; unless he realizes his potential, I think he won't ever win one.

I voted that johnny aleast win one medal at worlds. He's has all the potential in the world. When he performed his quad- triple-double in warm up, it was beautiful. Johnny problems is he don't attack his programs. He seem like he doesn't won't go for it. When he really wants a world medal he'll win it.

It looks like we all have faith he can win a medal.

Dee