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Thread: Campbell's format announced

  1. #76
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    RD, it's not your criticizing Sasha that's the issue - it's the obsessiveness with which you go about it. I find it disturbing but that's JMO.
    There's no Kwan around to say she stagnating and the pressure will get to her.

    As to your history as a Sasha-defender (per Antman): Wasn't here, wouldn't have guessed!
    He still does. He will say something 'nasty' about Sasha but if anyone else does he will come to her rescue with "Where did you hear that?", "Where is it written?" among other defending remarks. He doesn't do that for other skaters.

    Joe

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by temperboy28 View Post
    The scores all seem to indicate that would be true, the top skaters without quads need the top skaters with quads to make big mistakes or do an overall real sloppy program, and then to either skate clean or make far less mistakes to have a chance to beat them in the scores.
    Well, but how do you define "top skaters"? To a large extent it has to do with basic skating skills and with the quality of the elements including the jumps, not just what jumps they're doing. But it will be a continuum -- however you define a given level of skating, there will be ranges of ability within that category, and the best overall skaters in the category may be able to defeat someone with lower overall skills who happens to outjump them.

    It it same in womens probably. All girls with triple-triple will probably always beat girls without one.
    No, not always. Look at 2005 Worlds short program, for example. Two skaters who skated clean with triple-triple combinations, who had the highest jump scores, finished 4th and 7th in the short program. The skaters who placed ahead of them had lower jump content and in some cases more serious (but not disastrous) mistakes on one of their jumps. It was on the non-jump elements and the component scores that Kostner and Ando found themselves behind the leaders.

    Let's look at a hypothetical men's short program, because there's less room for variation in the jump content than in a long program.

    Skater A's jumps might be triple axel (7.5 base mark), solo triple lutz (6.0), and quad salchow-triple toe (9.5 + 4.0 = 13.5), for a total base mark of 27.0 just for the jump elements. Let's say he lands them all cleanly but the quality is only average and the grades of execution average out to 0, so he ends up with 27.0 total for the jumps.

    Skater B doesn't have a quad, so he does triple flip-triple toe combination instead (5.5 + 4.0 = 9.5); the other two jumps are the same as A's, and his jump base mark is 23.00, or a total of 4.0 behind A on the jumps. But maybe he goes into his jumps with more speed, he jumps higher, he's straighter in the air, and he carries more flow on the landings, so his grades of execution average +1 on all three jump elements. That would give him another 3.00 for jumps, for a total jump score of 26.0, only 1.0 behind A.

    It's very easy to make up 1.0 difference, or even 4.0, with some combination of higher levels on the spins and steps, better grades of execution on spins and steps, and higher component scores. If B is better than A at any of those areas, especially several of those areas, B will probably come out ahead when both skaters land all their jumps.

    What about long programs? There are more variations in how skaters can choose which jumps to do and how to arrange them, but let's try to keep the jump layouts as similar as possible with the exception that skater A has one quad in his repertoire and skater B has none. Let's stick with the quad salchow to increase the point advantage, although more quad guys are doing quad toes.

    The men are allowed eight jumping passes, which may include up to three combinations or sequences with two jumps each, or one combination can include three, for a maximum of eleven jumps. They're allowed to repeat only two triple or quad jumps one time each. To simplify the calculations, let's assume that both these guys use all the jump slots allowed and neither of them does a jump sequence, and we'll ignore the multiplier for jumps in the second half of the program.

    So, maximizing the allowed jump content, A's jump passes might be (not necessarily in this order):
    13.5 quad salchow-triple toe
    9.5 quad salchow
    10.3 triple axel-double toe-double loop
    7.5 triple axel
    6.0 triple lutz
    5.5 triple flip
    5.0 triple loop
    6.0 triple salchow-double loop

    Total: 43.3 jump base mark

    B's could be:
    10.3 triple axel-double toe-double loop
    7.5 triple axel
    10.0 triple lutz-triple toe
    6.0 triple lutz
    5.5 triple flip
    5.0 triple loop
    6.0 triple salchow-double loop
    3.3 double axel

    Total: 33.6

    Difference in jump base mark is almost 10 points. If B can average one point higher in grades of execution for all eight jump passes, he can close the gap significantly just within the marks for the jumps.

    Otherwise, the differences in base scores and the values of the GOEs for spins and steps are lower than for jumps, so it's harder to make up as much ground there, but if B is a better spinner and/or better skater he can get higher levels and higher GOEs and gain several points there as well.

    So it would be possible to make up the difference in jump difficulty just by doing all the jumps better, AND doing harder spins and steps, AND doing them better.

    OR, as pointed out earlier, the component marks are multiplied by 2 in the long program. So if B can average 1 point higher on every component (e.g., 7s to A's 6s), that will more than make up for the jump difficulty right there.

    If A and B are close in overall ability, then yes, A having a quad will work in A's favor when the rest of the scores are close. But if B is a better skater overall, there are many ways to compensate for A doing harder jumps.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    There's no Kwan around to say she stagnating and the pressure will get to her.
    because Kwan is yesterday's news.

    He still does. He will say something 'nasty' about Sasha but if anyone else does he will come to her rescue with "Where did you hear that?", "Where is it written?" among other defending remarks. He doesn't do that for other skaters.
    Not true. What's the difference between just plain curiosity and actually making DEFENDING remarks? Without board-dragging I found myself "defending" Sarah over at an unnamed forum.

    As always, I see tons of other posters that do the same thing. But, like always Red Dog is an easy target.

  4. #79
    MY TVC 1 5 SeaniBu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    Well, but how do you define "top skaters"? ...... doing harder jumps.
    I am always impressed with your posts, and I certainly hope you are going to tackle the Judging of that programe on the other thread.

  5. #80
    Rooting for the divas with Kwanford Spun Silver's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
    As always, I see tons of other posters that do the same thing. But, like always Red Dog is an easy target.
    Uh-oh. Now you're starting to talk about yourself in the third person. What's next: "you won't have [Red Dog] to kick around any more..."?

    RD, other posters are anti-Sasha but that's fine (with me) as long as they are content with voicing their negativity, say, once a month or so. It's the non-stop, over and over, need to bash that I find weird.

    I haven't noticed the pattern that Joe mentions but psychologically it seems to make sense. Anyway, I give up. I'll stop bugging you. For all I know, that just keeps you going! Sorry if I said anything untoward.

  6. #81
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    don't worry about it. You're not the first one, trust me.

    But think about it. What happens when you get "known" for liking somebody you really don't like? You "turn it up" on the comments, make them a little more "edgy". I don't do this intentionally but I think it just happens.
    Last edited by R.D.; 08-22-2006 at 07:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by debdelilah View Post
    chuckm,

    I read some reports that said Stephane struggled on spins, and others that he was fantastic in the spins. But it was a long tour, and it seemed like everyone was taking turns having their bad night. Even Evgeni had one report talking about him doing doubles--and others, of course, mentioning triple axels.
    It was a long tour for most of the skaters, but Lambiel joined the tour very late and did far fewer shows than the others. And he was having problems with jumps and spins in his first shows.

  8. #83
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    ...So, maximizing the allowed jump content, A's jump passes might be (not necessarily in this order):
    13.5 quad salchow-triple toe
    9.5 quad salchow
    10.3 triple axel-double toe-double loop
    7.5 triple axel
    6.0 triple lutz
    5.5 triple flip
    5.0 triple loop
    6.0 triple salchow-double loop

    Total: 43.3 jump base mark
    ..................
    ..................

    ...[yet] it would be possible to make up the difference in jump difficulty just by doing all the jumps better, AND doing harder spins and steps, AND doing them better.
    So true...and yet...in spite of everything, I think Temperboy has a point.

    If anyone did those jumps (changing the quad Salchows to quad toes), he would be Plushenko, and it wouldn't matter what anyone else did or how uneventful his program was otherwise.
    Last edited by Mathman; 08-23-2006 at 11:45 AM.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    If anyone did those jumps (changing the quad Salchows to quad toes), he would be Plushenko, and it wouldn't matter what anyone else did or how uneventful his prigram was otherwise.
    Many thanks to gkelly for the clear breakdown of the relative programs and analysis.

    To address Mathman's point, among the current men, that pretty much means Plushenko only. Of the other men:

    1. Those with consistent quads: Joubert, Lambiel, Sandhu, and Klimkin are inconsistent with their 3A's, and don't perform 4/3 combo, 4 solo, 3A/3 combo, 3A solo. The different between a well done quad combo and a messy 3A (without fall):

    4T/3T: 13.5 +1 GOE: 14.0
    3A, -1 GOE: 6.5
    Total 20.5

    3F/3T: 9.5 +1 GOE: 10.5
    3A, +1 GOE: 8.5
    Total: 19

    or

    3Lz/3T: 10 +1 GOE: 11
    3A, +1 GOE: 8.5
    Total: 19.5

    Li and Sandhu are as likely to perform a 4T/2T as a 4T/3T, which would mean:

    4T/2T: +1 GOE: 10.8
    3A, 0 GOE: 7.5
    Total 18.3

    The difference between a second 4T and a second 3A is 1.5 points.

    2. Those who've been without quads or consistent quads: Buttle, who has a dodgy 3A, and I can't remember when he performed two flawless 3A's (one in combo) in one LP. (Please tell me if he has; I'd love to see it.) His consistency with the Lutz has been questionable. Weir doesn't use all of his jump passes, but he's had problems on the solo 3F in a number of LP's. It's hard to say whether he could sustain the overall quality of his jumps if he did the maximum, because we haven't seen him jump late very often. Oda had late-program issues, probably stemming from a combination of nerves and the transition from junior to senior length programs, and Takahashi can be all over the map. Lysacek has issues with Axels.

    If I've seen Preaubert in person, I don't remember, and if he had great skating skills, I would have noticed. On the small downloads, he seems solid and a bit stolid to me, and the quality of his jumps is mixed.

    That the quad doesn't get more points, lifting the value of a quad in combo much higher than a 3F/3T, 3Lu/3T, even when the combo is a 4T/2T vs. a 3A/3T, is a much-argued point.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    If anyone did those jumps (changing the quad Salchows to quad toes), he would be Plushenko,
    Not necessarily. Could be Tim Goebel or Chiangjiang Li on a good day, changing one of the quads to quad toe, or Brian Joubert changing both of them. They have all planned programs with seven triples and two quads, and so has Lambiel.

    Joubert came pretty close to pulling it off at 06 Worlds, except that his repeated triple was the flip rather than the axel and he didn't maximize the doubles at the ends of combinations. Maybe if he had he would have won. But he still had the best jump content and didn't win.

    Remember 2000 US Nationals under the old system when Goebel landed 3 quads (IIRC) and lost to a guy who landed none?

    Yes, Plyushenko is unusual in that he can pretty consistently pull off that kind of content and these other guys need all the stars to align to land everything they plan. But since we're talking hypothetically...

  11. #86
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    Remember 2000 US Nationals under the old system when Goebel landed 3 quads (IIRC) and lost to a guy who landed none?
    A walk down memory lane! One judge had to give Michale Weiss a 6.0 in the second mark to keep him ahead of the presentation-challenged Quad King.

    I just looked up the results of that show. Trivia question: Guess who was third? Trifun Zivanovic. Ahead of such notables as Ryan Jahnke, Matt Savoie, Ryan Bradley, Derrick Delmore and John Baldwin (13th in singles).

    Quote Originally Posted by Hockeyfan
    The difference between a second 4T and a second 3A is 1.5 points.
    Definitely a point to keep in mind. On the question of whether the point value of a quad ought to be increased, a triple Axel is no slouch, either.

    What would really give someone an advantage, though, would be to have two different quads. Then he could repeat another triple (change the 2Lo to a 3T on his Sal combination, say.)

  12. #87
    Figure Skating Is A Dangerous Sport Dee4707's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
    don't worry about it. You're not the first one, trust me.

    But think about it. What happens when you get "known" for liking somebody you really don't like? You "turn it up" on the comments, make them a little more "edgy". I don't do this intentionally but I think it just happens.
    I guess this is what I don't understand, so what if you do or don't like Sasha??? I am not a fan (or what I think constitutes being a fan) but I love to watch her skate and I say that. I usually defend Sasha because people have made really, really mean comments about her but on the other hand don't praise what she does do right. I usually defend when people are just downright mean about her just for meaness sake. The only skater I really have been a fan of is Alexei. Yet, no one accuses me of liking him, but then I do, so what!! I guess what I don't understand is why you get so bent out of shape when anyone says you like Sasha???

    Dee

  13. #88
    MY TVC 1 5 SeaniBu's Avatar
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    I agree DEE , sometimes I think people can be a little too demeaning, but on the same note some people get too sensitive. Personally as long as we are not "attacking" each other, what is the harm. Celebrity status has always accompanied the possibility of being liked as much as disliked.

    I think it is a Love/Hate issue for some. Sasha is a great example of that for me. Over all I love to watch her skate, but during most past interviews I wish I had never seen her talk (getting better lately for me liking her though). Like Shania Twain, I thought she was just so incredibly beautiful and has one of the best voices IMO, but then I saw an interview on David Letterman...and All I can say is I still think good things of her talent and Beauty, but it definitely went down a notch or two.

    I think the balance thing is nice to try to do as a rule of thumb too, but just as much as someone praises there is also the same right to be critical.

    Most important I feel is not going over the top with the negative comments. FE, Irina looking like she has put on some weight is acceptable to me, but using derogatory terms like chunky or fat is just unnecessary and also discredits the poster that uses such immature vocabulary to convey a message, There is a degree of decorum that is more necessary when criticizing then when complementing, that just shows that actual thought went into the comment.

  14. #89
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeaniBu View Post
    There is a degree of decorum that is more necessary when criticizing then when complementing, that just shows that actual thought went into the comment.
    That is the whole thing in a nutshell. We should add that sentence to the GS guidelines.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dee4707 View Post
    I guess this is what I don't understand, so what if you do or don't like Sasha??? I am not a fan (or what I think constitutes being a fan) but I love to watch her skate and I say that. I usually defend Sasha because people have made really, really mean comments about her but on the other hand don't praise what she does do right. I usually defend when people are just downright mean about her just for meaness sake. The only skater I really have been a fan of is Alexei. Yet, no one accuses me of liking him, but then I do, so what!! I guess what I don't understand is why you get so bent out of shape when anyone says you like Sasha???
    I wish I could think about it that way. However, "Sasha fan" was a favorite derogatory term for certain posters some time ago. It was a label thrown about to many non-MK fans back in the day. I think it's stuck for some reason, so that every time I hear someone refer to me in that way that's what I think about.

    I don't ever remember saying "mean" things about a skater since I joined this forum in 2002. Yet over the years I've been accused of just about everything you can think of. However, I think once more and more people bought into the myth that I liked Sasha there was an inner need to "disprove" that myth and just start saying how I REALLY feel about her. And in fact Yes I have defended Cohen before. SO WHAT. Why is that different from defending Kwan, etc.?

    I guess what I simply FAIL to understand is why an increasing amount of posters thought I was a fan of hers when I basically said the same thing about other skaters? I never hear people calling me fans of other skaters with similar comments I make about them.

    I suppose I really shouldn't care any more, since I'm not sure "Sasha fan" is being used as a derogatory term anymore. At least I'd LIKE to hope that time has passed.
    Last edited by R.D.; 08-23-2006 at 02:54 PM.

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