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Thread: Interesting to see Slutskaya's scores at Olympic vs Arakawa.

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    Interesting to see Slutskaya's scores at Olympic vs Arakawa.

    It is interesting when looking at the scores of the womens long program from Turin to note how far behind Slutskaya was behind Arakawa in base score alone.

    This is put into perspective when you look at a few things more closely. Had Slutskaya not fallen on her triple loop, she would have had one error-doubling a triple jump, Arakawa would have also had the same error-doubling a triple jump.
    Without her fall on the triple loop Slutskaya would have easily beaten Cohen for the silver, but still quite easily lost the gold to Arakawa.


    114.74 + 3.00(fall) + 1.00(fall additonal) = atleast 118.74 + 66.70 = 185.44

    Cohen's total- 66.73 + 116.63 = 183.36

    However at most:

    114.74+3.00(fall) = 1.00(fall additonal) + 1.6 PCS(if each judge bumped up each category by .2 without the fall) + 1.00 GOE(at most) = 121.34

    121.34 + 66.70 = 188.04

    Arakawa's total- 66.02 + 125.32 = 191.34



    Then you analyze further and take away both Slutskaya's fall on the triple loop, and her doubled triple flip, and it is still extremely close who wins both overall, and the long program itself, between her and Arakawa. Probably when you add additional PCS and some GOE Irina wins overall likely, and maybe the long program as well, but it is by the narrowest of margins, even with Arakawa doubling one of her jumps, and also not trying a triple-triple. Amazingly Arakawa with a mistake, and Slutskaya with none, it still would have been a real battle to who won that particular day.


    114.74 + 3.00(fall) + 1.00(additional fall) + 4.2(doubled flip) = 122.94
    122.94 + 66.70 = 189.64

    Arakawa again was 125.32 long program, 191.34 overall

    However more likely she gets atleast:

    114.74 + 3.00(fall) = 1.00(additonal fall) + 4.2(doubled flip) + 1.6 PCS + 0.86 combing the two jumps = 125.40(still barely ahead of Arakwas's long program though)and 192.10 overall(still less then a point over Arakawa overall)


    The absolute most would be:

    114.74 + 3.00(fall) = 1.00(additonal fall) = 4.2(doubled flip) + 3.2 PCS +2.00 GOE combining two jumps=128.14

    128.14 + 66.70 = 194.84

    I am not saying this is wrong based on the quality of performances that day, just interesting to note, since it seems the perception most people have is that if Irina had not fallen on her triple loop she would have won which is clearly not the case, she would have easily won the silver without the fall but still with the doubled jump, but not even come close to winning. Amazingly even with neither the fall or doubled jump she still was not certain to have won the long program, and even an outside chance of losing the overall gold, even with Arakawa having doubled a jump. Again I am not saying that is wrong neccessarily though, but interesting to find.

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    Forum translator Ptichka's Avatar
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    My impression was that Irina's performance was very lackluster. When she is "on", she radiates energy that permeates every move she makes on the ice. When she is "off", it just looks like skating from element to element; IMHO it was the latter that night in Turin. Shizuka's performace is far more consistent (note that I am saying performance rather than overall skating); her Turin performance made for a complete and beautiful program. Not going for triple/ triple is kind of beside the point; you can criticize her for that just as some criticized Yagudin for not putting in that extra quad in Salt Lake City; ultimately it just did not matter for the overall performance in either of those cases.

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    Interesting indeed. So many what-ifs to contemplate.

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    I agree... Irina's performance at Oly's was lackluster. Her spins were slower and not as steady. She wasn't attacking the program IMO.

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    I thank that Irina bascially peaked too soon.

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    I think she was tired out. Just like Cohen was at worlds...simply out of gas. She had a great short program, though. Maybe she should have gotten silver instead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by heyang View Post
    I agree... Irina's performance at Oly's was lackluster. Her spins were slower and not as steady. She wasn't attacking the program IMO.
    I agree, and to top that all of her jumps were way below her usual quality. She recieved similar GOE on her jumps landed clean as Cohen, and well below Arakawa. For her she would usually be well above Cohen in jump GOE, and atleast on par with Arakawa if not ahead. On top of that she was doing a second triple flip, while Arakawa was doing a second triple lutz and two triple sals instead of a solo triple toe, and Cohen was doing a triple-triple sequence to include 7 triples to start.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
    I think she was tired out. Just like Cohen was at worlds...simply out of gas. She had a great short program, though. Maybe she should have gotten silver instead.

    Well it was her short program scoring that surprised me. It was her lowest scored short program all year I believe, and I thought she would get a higher score in the short program and win the short. So that surprised me. The long program scoring for her I understood though, since in addition to the major mistakes, her performance was flat and ragged.

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    yeah, she was definitely screwed by the Grand Prix judges. Even more surprising was that Cohen was able to place above her (although it was basically a virtural tie between the top 3).

    As for the freeskate I remember being totally dumbfounded that she was placed third behind Cohen. It was definitely far from her best performance, though.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I think Irina had the same Oly nerves she had in 2002 plus let's face it, the poor lady was ill. Trying to deal with pressure and not feeling well, just doesn't work. Cohen and Arakawa had no problem with Irina.

    Joe

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
    yeah, she was definitely screwed by the Grand Prix judges.
    Are you talking about Slutskaya? The Grand Prix judges gave her 196.12 at Cup of China and 196.12 at Cup of Russia, before tailing off a little (181.48) at the GP final.

    In her Olympic LP, though, Irina was as bad as she was good in the Grand Prix.
    Last edited by Mathman; 09-03-2006 at 02:36 PM.

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    One thing I wonder about Irina is how much she is affected when she does not lead after the short program. She has a history of being ahead of her chief rival after the short whenever she skates clean. Yet at both the 02 and 06 Olympics she skated a clean short and did not win the short, albeit trailed by the narrowest of margins. I could be wrong, but I think that might have affected her pysche going into the long both times too.

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    yes I was referring to Irina. But only for the short program. The Olympic FS wasn't quite up to her usual standard but I was still surprised that she didn't get silver (at first, anyway).

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    Quote Originally Posted by slutskayafan21 View Post
    One thing I wonder about Irina is how much she is affected when she does not lead after the short program. She has a history of being ahead of her chief rival after the short whenever she skates clean. Yet at both the 02 and 06 Olympics she skated a clean short and did not win the short, albeit trailed by the narrowest of margins. I could be wrong, but I think that might have affected her pysche going into the long both times too.
    I think it was a bigger factor in the 02 Olympics since ordinals were involved. She only had .03 points to make up in the FS at the 06 Games, but Arakawa extended that deficit with her freeskate. I think that, coupled with skating last (again- didn't she also skate last in SLC?) put the nail in the coffin as far as she was concerned. It didn't help her that Cohen fell 2x and opened the door wide...even Shiz left it wide open since even though she was clean it was VERY conservative. I think a repeat of IS's grand prix performances would have won it for her...or at least given her silver if she'd turned in an identical performance but hadn't fallen on that jump.

    Maybe even a stumble instead of a fall might have been the difference?
    Last edited by R.D.; 09-03-2006 at 03:03 PM.

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    I watched it on TV but not being real "smart" on the technical stuff (Im slowly learning on GS), I thought Fumie was going to get the bronze if not the silver. I thought her performance was better then Irina & Sasha.

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