It is interesting when looking at the scores of the womens long program from Turin to note how far behind Slutskaya was behind Arakawa in base score alone.
This is put into perspective when you look at a few things more closely. Had Slutskaya not fallen on her triple loop, she would have had one error-doubling a triple jump, Arakawa would have also had the same error-doubling a triple jump.
Without her fall on the triple loop Slutskaya would have easily beaten Cohen for the silver, but still quite easily lost the gold to Arakawa.
114.74 + 3.00(fall) + 1.00(fall additonal) = atleast 118.74 + 66.70 = 185.44
Cohen's total- 66.73 + 116.63 = 183.36
However at most:
114.74+3.00(fall) = 1.00(fall additonal) + 1.6 PCS(if each judge bumped up each category by .2 without the fall) + 1.00 GOE(at most) = 121.34
121.34 + 66.70 = 188.04
Arakawa's total- 66.02 + 125.32 = 191.34
Then you analyze further and take away both Slutskaya's fall on the triple loop, and her doubled triple flip, and it is still extremely close who wins both overall, and the long program itself, between her and Arakawa. Probably when you add additional PCS and some GOE Irina wins overall likely, and maybe the long program as well, but it is by the narrowest of margins, even with Arakawa doubling one of her jumps, and also not trying a triple-triple. Amazingly Arakawa with a mistake, and Slutskaya with none, it still would have been a real battle to who won that particular day.
114.74 + 3.00(fall) + 1.00(additional fall) + 4.2(doubled flip) = 122.94
122.94 + 66.70 = 189.64
Arakawa again was 125.32 long program, 191.34 overall
However more likely she gets atleast:
114.74 + 3.00(fall) = 1.00(additonal fall) + 4.2(doubled flip) + 1.6 PCS + 0.86 combing the two jumps = 125.40(still barely ahead of Arakwas's long program though)and 192.10 overall(still less then a point over Arakawa overall)
The absolute most would be:
114.74 + 3.00(fall) = 1.00(additonal fall) = 4.2(doubled flip) + 3.2 PCS +2.00 GOE combining two jumps=128.14
128.14 + 66.70 = 194.84
I am not saying this is wrong based on the quality of performances that day, just interesting to note, since it seems the perception most people have is that if Irina had not fallen on her triple loop she would have won which is clearly not the case, she would have easily won the silver without the fall but still with the doubled jump, but not even come close to winning. Amazingly even with neither the fall or doubled jump she still was not certain to have won the long program, and even an outside chance of losing the overall gold, even with Arakawa having doubled a jump. Again I am not saying that is wrong neccessarily though, but interesting to find.