Interesting to see Slutskaya's scores at Olympic vs Arakawa.
It is interesting when looking at the scores of the womens long program from Turin to note how far behind Slutskaya was behind Arakawa in base score alone.
This is put into perspective when you look at a few things more closely. Had Slutskaya not fallen on her triple loop, she would have had one error-doubling a triple jump, Arakawa would have also had the same error-doubling a triple jump.
Without her fall on the triple loop Slutskaya would have easily beaten Cohen for the silver, but still quite easily lost the gold to Arakawa.
114.74 + 3.00(fall) + 1.00(fall additonal) = atleast 118.74 + 66.70 = 185.44
Cohen's total- 66.73 + 116.63 = 183.36
However at most:
114.74+3.00(fall) = 1.00(fall additonal) + 1.6 PCS(if each judge bumped up each category by .2 without the fall) + 1.00 GOE(at most) = 121.34
121.34 + 66.70 = 188.04
Arakawa's total- 66.02 + 125.32 = 191.34
Then you analyze further and take away both Slutskaya's fall on the triple loop, and her doubled triple flip, and it is still extremely close who wins both overall, and the long program itself, between her and Arakawa. Probably when you add additional PCS and some GOE Irina wins overall likely, and maybe the long program as well, but it is by the narrowest of margins, even with Arakawa doubling one of her jumps, and also not trying a triple-triple. Amazingly Arakawa with a mistake, and Slutskaya with none, it still would have been a real battle to who won that particular day.
114.74 + 3.00(fall) + 1.00(additional fall) + 4.2(doubled flip) = 122.94
122.94 + 66.70 = 189.64
Arakawa again was 125.32 long program, 191.34 overall
However more likely she gets atleast:
114.74 + 3.00(fall) = 1.00(additonal fall) + 4.2(doubled flip) + 1.6 PCS + 0.86 combing the two jumps = 125.40(still barely ahead of Arakwas's long program though)and 192.10 overall(still less then a point over Arakawa overall)
The absolute most would be:
114.74 + 3.00(fall) = 1.00(additonal fall) = 4.2(doubled flip) + 3.2 PCS +2.00 GOE combining two jumps=128.14
128.14 + 66.70 = 194.84
I am not saying this is wrong based on the quality of performances that day, just interesting to note, since it seems the perception most people have is that if Irina had not fallen on her triple loop she would have won which is clearly not the case, she would have easily won the silver without the fall but still with the doubled jump, but not even come close to winning. Amazingly even with neither the fall or doubled jump she still was not certain to have won the long program, and even an outside chance of losing the overall gold, even with Arakawa having doubled a jump. Again I am not saying that is wrong neccessarily though, but interesting to find.
My impression was that Irina's performance was very lackluster. When she is "on", she radiates energy that permeates every move she makes on the ice. When she is "off", it just looks like skating from element to element; IMHO it was the latter that night in Turin. Shizuka's performace is far more consistent (note that I am saying performance rather than overall skating); her Turin performance made for a complete and beautiful program. Not going for triple/ triple is kind of beside the point; you can criticize her for that just as some criticized Yagudin for not putting in that extra quad in Salt Lake City; ultimately it just did not matter for the overall performance in either of those cases.
Interesting indeed. So many what-ifs to contemplate.
I agree... Irina's performance at Oly's was lackluster. Her spins were slower and not as steady. She wasn't attacking the program IMO.
I thank that Irina bascially peaked too soon.
I think she was tired out. Just like Cohen was at worlds...simply out of gas. She had a great short program, though. Maybe she should have gotten silver instead.
I agree, and to top that all of her jumps were way below her usual quality. She recieved similar GOE on her jumps landed clean as Cohen, and well below Arakawa. For her she would usually be well above Cohen in jump GOE, and atleast on par with Arakawa if not ahead. On top of that she was doing a second triple flip, while Arakawa was doing a second triple lutz and two triple sals instead of a solo triple toe, and Cohen was doing a triple-triple sequence to include 7 triples to start.
Originally Posted by heyang