Skate America Preview

gsk8 · Oct 22, 2006

Hi all!

For those interested, here is a preview. Let the feedback and foodfights commence! :biggrin:

http://goldenskate.com/articles/2006/102206.shtml

iloveaxel · Oct 22, 2006

gsk8 said:
Hi all!

For those interested, here is a preview. Let the feedback and foodfights commence!

http://goldenskate.com/articles/2006/102206.shtml

Emily has zero chance. A lot of skaters are much stronger than her. I don't understand why you picked Emily as a potential medalist.

Theatregirl1122 · Oct 23, 2006

iloveaxel said:
Emily has zero chance. A lot of skaters are much stronger than her. I don't understand why you picked Emily as a potential medalist.

The article was pretty clear on that I thought. Emily placed above every lady on the list at either worlds, the Olympics, or US nationals except the Asadas who did not compete at those competitions and Meissner. I'm not a big fan of Emily but there's no reason to be so dismissive of her.

Tonichelle · Oct 23, 2006

someone sounds bitter

oh well to each their own... Emily is a dark horse like it or not. It really amazes me that animosity that is aimed towards her... it's like everyone just jumped from one Hughes to the other just because it was easiest...

/off soap box

anywho... I'm most excited for Ice Dance... Melissa and Denis are going to bring down the house! I've read nothing but great things about their FD and I sooooooooooooooooooo want to see it... if ABC chacks them there will be h-e-double-hockey-sticks to pay!

slutskayafan21 · Oct 23, 2006

It is amazing to be reminded Oda lost the Japanese title and his trip to the Olympics due to violating the jump regulation rules, and then repeated the mistake at Worlds which cost him the bronze to Lysacek. I wonder if something more of that kind of error is in store this year.

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 23, 2006

Very well written and can be used in future when questions come up about a particular figure skating era.

Joesitz

Mathman · Oct 23, 2006

Outstanding article.

About the predictions, I thik there will be some surprises. I think Sara Meier could make the podium, and also vanderPerren.

What about Matthews and Zavosin? They are on the rise and might take a great leap forward this year.

purplecat · Oct 23, 2006

A little off topic, but I was wondering if there were going to be any prediction contests this year for the Grand Prix as there have been in previous years? I'm talking about the official Golden Skate ones that offered prizes to the winners of each contest.

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 23, 2006

Emily is an Olympian, hardly a dark horse.

Mathman · Oct 23, 2006

chuckm said:
If the new system had been in place last season, Elena Sokolova wouldn't have made the final.

Are you sure about that? Sokolova did finish ahead of Rochette, Arakawa and Onda (and also Ando, who made the final on the tie-breaker.) But even without that first place bonus it would have been a five way tie, and Sokolova would have won the first tie-breaker (best placement).

Under this year's system it would have been Sokolova 15+7, Ando 13+9, Rochette 13+9, Arakawa 11+11 and Onda 11+11.

In fact, I can't think of a scenario where it would make any difference, whether you give a one-point bonus for a first place or whether you give the first tie-breaker to the one with a first place finish.

chuckm · Oct 23, 2006

Sokolova finished 6th at TEB, and she would have gotten only 5 points for that.

Here is how the GPF would have played out:

Slutskaya: two 1sts = 15+15 = 30
Asada: 1st and 2nd = 13 + 15 = 28
Czisny: 1st and 2nd = 13 + 15 = 28
Nakano: 3rd and 1st = 11 + 15 = 26
Ando: 2nd and 4th = 13 + 9 = 22
Rochette: 2nd and 4th = 13 + 9 = 22 (behind Ando on points)
Arakawa: two 3rds = 11+ 11 = 22
Onda : two 3rds = 11+ 11 = 22 (behind Arakawa on points)
Sokolova: 1st and 6th = 15 + 5 = 20

Instead of going to the GPF, Elena would have been 3rd alternate.

Fossi · Oct 23, 2006

Emily has a lot of spunk, like Sarah, and has the dedication to skating that will make her a force to be reckoned with. Don't count her out. Everyone counted Sarah out at SLC, and she got it done.

Don't count out Emily!!

Vodka Shot · Oct 23, 2006

U.S. champion Johnny Weir elected other Grand Prix events, leaving two-time World bronze medalist Evan Lysacek as the leading American entrant.

I didn't think they had an option which GP assignments they got? I doubt Johnny would have "elected" to get Canada. He thinks he's cursed there?

I think after Kimmie and Mao Asada, Emily is one of the top contenters; I could easily see her pulling bronze.

Mathman · Oct 23, 2006

chuckm said:
Sokolova finished 6th at TEB, and she would have gotten only 5 points for that...

That's very interesting. So not only did Elena benefit from the first place bonus, she also benefitted from the leveling off of the scale at the low end.

I can see why they changed it. But the latter feature is still present. A first and a seventh beats a 2nd and 6th, 19 to 18, even without the tie-breaker.

Mathman · Oct 23, 2006

Vodka Shot said:
I didn't think they had an option which GP assignments they got? I doubt Johnny would have "elected" to get Canada. He thinks he's cursed there?

I think they do have an option, at least in the case of the spots selected by the host country after the ISU seeding is done. Belbin and Agosto said flat out that they passed up Skate America because they were too worn out from touring all summer and needed the extra time to get their programs together.

chuckm · Oct 23, 2006

But Emily is not Sarah! They are very different skaters. While Emily's skating is very power-driven and her personality outgoing, Sarah's skating was very carefully controlled and her on-iced persona introverted.

As a result of their different approaches to skating, Emily is far more error-prone than Sarah ever was. You very rarely saw Sarah fall, because Sarah was above all an extremely consistent skater, but Emily has yet to skate a clean FS in a Senior event.

Sarah won her first GP medal at Lalique in 1999, when she was 14, in her first season on the GP, and went on to win two bronze medals in the GPF in 2000 and 2001. Emily went medalless in her first GP season, at 16.

chuckm · Oct 23, 2006

Vodka Shot said:
I didn't think they had an option which GP assignments they got? I doubt Johnny would have "elected" to get Canada. He thinks he's cursed there?

Skaters don't get to choose their GP events. The only choice the US skaters get is whether they want to do SA; it is offered to the skaters according to their order of finish at US Nationals. Johnny has always turned down SA. I am sure he didn't want SC, especially after last season. But I don't really think he believes he's 'cursed'. He had a bad experience last year, but that was his first and only appearance at SC. He did NHK, TEB and CoR in the 2004-2005 season.

I think after Kimmie and Mao Asada, Emily is one of the top contenters; I could easily see her pulling bronze.

Emily does have stiff competition for that bronze medal; I don't see anything 'easy' about it. Mai Asada and Miki Ando both skated better than Emily at Campbell's, and Sarah Meier beat Emily at Worlds. Emily has to skate a fairly clean FS to beat the other skaters, and that has always been a problem for her. Maybe she should hope for a splatfest.

iloveaxel · Oct 23, 2006

chuckm said:
...
Emily does have stiff competition for that bronze medal; I don't see anything 'easy' about it. Mai Asada and Miki Ando both skated better than Emily at Campbell's, and Sarah Meier beat Emily at Worlds. Emily has to skate a fairly clean FS to beat the other skaters, and that has always been a problem for her. Maybe she should hope for a splatfest.

That's funny, i was thinking the same. In my opinion, Emily has been constantly overmarked under the new scoring system. Her spiral position is absolutely horrible. She did not fall at Campbell but started the new habit of popping jumps
I really don't like her lumbering around the ice.

R.D. · Oct 23, 2006

Thanks for the article. The fact that it's the first competition of the season makes me wonder if it should really be taken seriously...at this point things are being worked out and programs will be tweaked in the future. A so-called "splat fest" in the making? I'll say it first: the results of this comp don't mean anything at all when making predictions for worlds or other comps.

Ladies- As for Hughes I actually have to agree with the first poster. I like her enthusiasm and her never-ending smile but I seriously doubt she can put up here. Maybe if Kimmie has (another) off night she can squeeze into 3rd or 4th, but I wouldn't count on it. Asada will be ready. And keep an eye on Ando. She could be the "spoiler" here.

evenstar · Oct 23, 2006

In reply to some earlier posts, Sokolova did finish 5th at TEB.

Skate America Preview

gsk8

iloveaxel

Match Penalty

Theatregirl1122

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

purplecat

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

chuckm

Fossi

Vodka Shot

Mathman

Mathman

chuckm

chuckm

iloveaxel

Match Penalty

R.D.

evenstar

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