Which Ladies Will Be In the Final?

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 25, 2006

I'm repeating this here (mostly for myself) to remind me of how important this Event has turned out to be with only 3 Ladies on solid ground for the Final.

Mao must win!!! or she joins Kimmie.

The way I read it thus far:

Miki and Julia tied for 1st place with 15 + 13 = 28. No need to break the tie TheFinal will do that.

Yu Na with 11 + 15 = 26

Rochette 15 + 9 = 24

Meier 9 +15 = 24

I believe the first tie breaker is concerned with the first GP result which would give the edge to Joanniel. However, if they go to the points (I think this is the second tie breaker) than Sara gets the edge with 328.18 v. Joannie with 325.38

What remains is the NHK and the possibilities are:

Mao has 11 needs 15 to be in the Finals with no problem
if 11 ties with Joannie/Sara

Yukari has 13 needs 15 to be in Finals with no problem
if 11 a tie with Joannie/Sara

Fumie has 13 needs 15 to be in Finals with no problem
if 11 a tie with Joannie/Sara

One of the above Japanese Ladies will win gold and have no problem for the Final.

And One lady (silver medalist) will be part of the tie breaker of Joannie/Sara.

One of the above Japanese Ladies will have to be a bronzer at best and not qualify for the Finals.

Who will make the Finals? That is the Question!

Joe

Mathman · Nov 25, 2006

Sarah Meier is definitely in no matter what. So the only question is whether Joannie can hold onto that last spot. She has to hope for the exact order Suguri, Asada, Nakano (or Nakano, Asada, Suguri).

I'm loving the Grand Prix this year!

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 25, 2006

Mathman said:
Sarah Meier is definitely in no matter what. So the only question is whether Joannie can hold onto that last spot. She has to hope for the exact order Suguri, Asada, Nakano (or Nakano, Asada, Suguri).

I'm loving the Grand Prix this year!

Not sure why Sara will definitely be in the Final. According to what you say, I am now assuming the score results supercede the results of the first event. Is that correct?

If so, there could be another total event score of 24 in NKH putting the tie at three skaters. Joannie, Sara and the Japanese silver medalist at NKH. Wouldn't the total scores have to be sufficent to not only be higher than Sara but of Joannie, too?

I would appreciate it if you would confirm that the first score of a GP is irrelevant and not to be considered as the first tie breaker.

I'm loving trying to understand the rules of the game.

Joe

Mathman · Nov 25, 2006

Joe, when they say the "first score," they don't mean the event that comes first, they mean the "highest of the two placements." So this means that Sarah and Joannie are tied in total GP points with 24, AND they are tied with each other on the first tie breaker because each of them has a highest finish of 1st.

This puts them both ahead of Kimmie who also has 24, but loses the tie breaker because her highest finish is a 2nd.

Between Sarah and Joannie, it now moves to the second tie breaker, and Sarah wins because she has the most total CoP points.

Sarah is definitely in the finals because right now she is in fourth place, after tie breakers, and there aren't enough skaters still in the running to eliminate her altogether. The worst (for Sarah) that could happen is Mao Asada gets first in NHK and Fumie Suguri gets second. Then both Mao and Fumie would be ahead of Sarah, and Sarah would move down to 6th place.

But then the only place left for Yukari Nakano at NHK is third, so Yukari and Sarah would both have 24 points, but Sarah would win the first tie breaker by having a 1st place (and a 4th, compared to Yukari's 2nd and 3rd).

Bottom line: whoever gets third at NHK cannot make the finals.

Mathman · Nov 25, 2006

PS. If you look on this page (now updated to take into account the Cup of Russia results) all the tie-breakers are listed.

http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2006/gpsladies.htm

The first thing is how many GP points you have (like Ando and Sebestyen both have 28). The next column is the first tie-breaker. If you have a 1 there, that means you automatically win or tie against anyone else with the same number of GP points. (Ando and Sebestyen both have a 1, so they are still tied. But comparing Rochette and Meissner, both at 24 points, Rochette has a 1 and Meissner has a 2, so Rochette wins the first tie-breaker.)

If it is still tied, then you move to the CoP points.

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 25, 2006

Thanks Mathman. Now I get it. I misunderstood the wording of the 'first' score.

Joe

AliasJohnDoe · Nov 25, 2006

I'll predict ladies:
1.Ando-15+13=28
2.Sebestyen-15+13=28
3.Kim-15+11=26
4.Asada-15+11=26
5.Suguri-13+13=26
6.Meier-15+9=24
7.Rochette-15+9=24 (1st alternate)
8.Meissner-13+11=24 (2nd alternate)
9.Nakano-13+11=24 (3rd alternate)

tae04 · Nov 30, 2006

Just shows how the ISU needs to change this to top 6 total pts.

Miki Ando 367.03
Yu Na Kim 353.02
Kimmie Meissner 335.81
Sarah Meier 328.18
Joannie Rochette 325.38
Susanna Poykio 310.39
Julia Sebestyen 300.55 (Yet she's 2nd overall)
Asada, Suguri, and Nakano yet to have there 2 event scores

Call me a Sebestyen hater, but I just despise she's going to the GPF and will pretty much be tenth in overall scores. I guess thats the luck of the draw that she drew up Sokolova, Nakano, Meier as top contenders in her events lol.

:rofl:

hockeyfan228 · Nov 30, 2006

tae04 said:
Call me a Sebestyen hater, but I just despise she's going to the GPF and will pretty much be tenth in overall scores. I guess thats the luck of the draw that she drew up Sokolova, Nakano, Meier as top contenders in her events lol.

Sokolova, Nakano, and Meier were 2006 Worlds #'s 4, 5, 6 when Sebestyen was Worlds #22. Sokolova, Nakano, and Meier were 2006 Olympics #'s 14, Did not skate, and 8, while Sebestyen was Olympics #18. The "luck" of the draw was that not one of them skated to their potential, nor did Czisny or anyone else at either of her two events, for that matter, and she was the last woman standing. The odds were highly against her earning more than 16 points in total, but ice is slippery.

Jasper · Dec 2, 2006

So the World champion won't be qualifying for the GPF? That just shows how exciting and competitive ladies skating is this season, esp. with new rivalries involving Asada and Kim and a re-invigorated Ando.

mitzi · Dec 2, 2006

Jasper said:
So the World champion won't be qualifying for the GPF? That just shows how exciting and competitive ladies skating is this season, esp. with new rivalries involving Asada and Kim and a re-invigorated Ando.

We'll see if all these girls will stay strong enough and keep good shape till March, it's long way.

rain · Dec 2, 2006

mitzi said:
We'll see if all these girls will stay strong enough and keep good shape till March, it's long way.

Yeah, you always have to wonder if some aren't peaking too soon. Should be interesting.

R.D. · Dec 2, 2006

Hmm, good point. But one must wonder if there isn't another Slutskaya in that lot.

hockeyfan228 · Dec 2, 2006

GPF Qualfiers:

Ando (28 pts)
Sebestyen (28 pts)
Asada (26 pts)
Kim (26 pts)
Suguri (26 pts)
Meier (24 pts)

Alternates:

Rochette (24 pts)
Meissner (24 pts)
Nakano (24 pts)

Spun Silver · Dec 2, 2006

I take it those alternates are in that order?

Which Ladies Will Be In the Final?

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

AliasJohnDoe

tae04

hockeyfan228

Jasper

mitzi

rain

R.D.

hockeyfan228

Spun Silver

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