Michelle vs. Sasha vs. Kimmie at U.S. nationals

CoP tutorial.

Spokane, 2007. Sasha Cohen skates so well at the Marshall’s phone-in cheesefest that she decides to return to nationals and defend her title. Plus, no good scripts came in that month, so why not?

Michelle Kwan miraculously not only recovers her full health but is restored to the peak of her skating powers. She goes for number ten, in between trouble-shooting assignments for the State Department in Iran and North Korea.

Kimmie Meissner, shut out of the Grand Prix Final as Julia Sebestyen claims the 2006 GP title, decides, oh well, I might as well show up, too.

Michelle does 3T+3T!!!!!!!! 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3Lo, 3F+2T, 3S, 2A. A perfect seven triple program, with a triple-triple. In addition, she skates the program of her life, her loving heart and pure soul shining though with each stroke of the blade, the crowd goes wild and she gets the biggest PCSs of the night, straight 8.25s across the board!

Jump elements 41.9 (including second half bonuses – I did the math, LOL)
Non-jump elements and GOEs 19.2
Program component scores 68.0

Total 129.1

Sasha does 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo, 3F+2T, 3T+3S seq, 2A, 3S. A clean seven triple program!!!!!! Her spins and spiral sequences are out of this world, all level 4s. Her program component scores are 8.00 across the board.

Jump elements 40.1
Non-jump elements and GOEs 23.2
Program component scores 66.0

Total 129.2 Sasha moves into first place by one tenth of a point!

Kimmie goes 3Lz+3T, 3A (FALL), 3F+3T, 3S, 3Lo, 3Lz. 2A+2T+2Lo, she finishes 4 points behind Sasha on non-jump elements, and gets only “pretty good” 7.75s for PCSs (below Michelle’s and Sasha’s).

Jump elements 47.8
Non-jump elements and GOEs 19.4
Program component scores 64.0
Fall deduction –1

Total 130.2

Kimmie had a fall and was last of the three in the second mark (gold).

Sasha skated cleanly and had the best spins and spirals possible under the CoP (silver).

Michelle did seven triples including a triple-triple and brought all of her magic (bronze).

Go Kimmie! Go CoP!

Oh boy ... MM has way too much time on his hands!

You're incorrect though ... a healthy Michelle with a 3/3 and a COP program could not possibly lose. With what you call the "program of her life" ... her PCS would be off the charts. We're talking 9+'s BABY!!!

Sirrah, I perceive you are jesting. Bleh.

THAT would be a competition that I would pay serious hard core $$ to see!

But clean skaters have been beat by mistake ridden programs already in COP, so this nothing new.

Sasha skating clean? Michelle landing 7 triples again? Kimmie's technical brilliance? All in one competition?

AWESOME!

You bet

Nothing, and absolutely nothing in skating beats the excitement of a major competition when all of the top competitors are there and they skate their best. but unfortunately we're talking about an imaginary situation here. Thing is, mistakes are real and they will occur. I think as we launch into a more "technical" era (as is happening now with the lot of Asada, Ando, Kim and Meissner) so-called "clean" programs will become rarer and rarer to the point where you may not ever see one again. Unfortunate but true. One will now have to turn to professional skating to see the artistic programs.

I also think the scores for MK and Cohen are very conservative. Surely given the explosive energy in the building (which would certainly happen if they skate their best) one wouldn't think the scores would go through the ROOF? Heck, last year with two noticeable mistakes and just merely average skating Cohen was able to pull off a 130. Who knows- if she really blows the roof off that score could be closer to 140! Same with Kwan.

But I think RIGHT NOW, Meissner is the most competitive of the US ladies. It falls on her and Emily hughes now to deliver at Worlds so that the US will keep 3 spots for next year.

EMILY!! Emily!!

These 2 gals can do it Red Dog! I know they can!!!

Red Dog said:

I also think the scores for MK and Cohen are very conservative.

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:agree: MM, You know the Judges always favored MK (and rightfully so IMO).

Fossi said:

EMILY!! Emily!!

These 2 gals can do it Red Dog! I know they can!!!

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Let's hope so.

OT, I think it's funny we're still discussing two skaters who have all but retired. Is it just our hopes that are keeping us discussing these old skaters?

The problem with your analysis is that Kimmie would receive lower PCS than your gave her and Michelle's would be even higher.

Also, Michelle would most likely be doing a second 3Lutz, not a second 3Flip, and she would be adding a 2Loop into one of her non-Triple/Triple combinations (as she did at the 2005 Worlds), so that's an additional 2 points, which would already overtake Kimmie's score without factoring in an even greater PCS difference than the scores you assigned.

~Z

I love it!

Skatefans can even ergue about a result of hypothetical will never happen competition!!! That's why i love these boards!!

Ant

Actually, my purpose in doing this comparison was to show that under the CoP, the way to win is to come up with the huge jumps, even if you fall, and nothing else counts for much. Kimmie had over 50 base value on her jumping passes, compared to 40 or 41 for Sasha and Michelle, even though they both did 7 triples.

But as Zuranthium and others have pointed out, it didn't really work out that way after all. Non-jump elements, GOEs and especially PCSs can turn the tide.

I will give Michelle 9.0's on the second mark, raising her total by an extra 6 points.

Mathman said:

Actually, my purpose in doing this comparison was to show that under the CoP, the way to win is to come up with the huge jumps, even if you fall.

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The GOE for jumps needs to be scaled with how many points each jump is worth. Like this:

Double Axle: -.7/+.6

Triple Toe: -.8/+.7
Triple Sal: -.9/+.8
Triple Loop: -1.0/+.9
Triple Flip: -1.1/+1.0
Triple Lutz: -1.2/+1.0
Triple Axle: -1.3/+1.0

Quad Toe: -1.5/+1.0
Quad Sal: -1.6/+1.0
Quad Loop: -1.7/+1.0
Quad Flip: -1.8/+1.0
Quad Lutz: -1.9/+1.0

It's really dumb how currently every single Triple/Quad gets the same negative GOE score. The situation isn't as bad with the positive GOEs, although the Double Axle stands out as a glaring mistake, getting an entire +1.0 per positive GOE point (30% of the base score!)...WAY too much. Additionally, jumps done in combination need to be given separate Grades of Execution. If you do a 3Lutz/2Loop and fall on the loop, only the loop should be given the -3 GOE.

There are other small fixes that need to be implemented as well:

-Jumps done in combination should be given a bonus. Exactly how much I've yet to fully sit down and figure out but I'm thinking 5% extra on the first jump and then 15% extra for the second and/or third jump.

-Underrotated jumps should not be hit as heavily as they are currently. The current rule of simply fully downgrading the jump is not fair because an underrotated 3Toe, for example, is still harder to do than a plain 2Toe and as such it should be worth more. I believe an underrotated jump should be worth the average of whatever the full jump was and it's downgraded value. For example, if you underrotate a Quad Toe, it should be worth 6.5 points (Quad Toe is worth 9 points, Triple Toe is worth 4, so the average is 6.5). When determining GOEs and Zayak limitations, the underrotated jump should count as a full jump of whatever you were trying at.

-The values of the double jumps need to be changed:

2Toe: 1.2 points
2Sal: 1.4 points
2Loop: 1.6 points
2Flip: 1.8 points
2Lutz: 2.0 points

Currently a 3Lutz/2Loop is only worth .2 points more than a 3Lutz/2Toe (2Loop is worth 1.5 and 2Toe is worth 1.3). That's not a fair depiction of how difficult each combination is. Doing a Loop jump in combination is WAY harder than a Toeloop.

-The values of ALL jumps should be rounded to the nearest hundredth, not the neareast tenth. For example, a 3Sal done in the second half of the program gets a 10% bonus... 4.5 * 1.1 = 4.95. However, it is currently just rounded to 5 points. With the introduction of a bonus % to jumps done in combination as well, I think every hundredth point needs to be counting!

~Z

Zuranthium said:

The values of ALL jumps should be rounded to the nearest hundredth, not the neareast tenth. For example, a 3Sal done in the second half of the program gets a 10% bonus... 4.5 * 1.1 = 4.95.

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This change has already been put into effect this year.

Fossi said:

THAT would be a competition that I would pay serious hard core $$ to see!
...

Sasha skating clean? Michelle landing 7 triples again? Kimmie's technical brilliance? All in one competition?

AWESOME!

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ITA!, However, will the judges be able to score the competition? I would think that the combined shock of MK back and doing seven triples (with 3/3) and Sasha skating clean might have a strong effect on the health of the judges.

Mathman said:

This change has already been put into effect this year.

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Oh, I hadn't noticed. Lovely!

Mathman, have you woke up from your dream yet?
I'd love to see them all skate but it won't happen at least at Nationals.

I certainly hope one them magically decides to come back. It would be an auto medal win. After Kimmie and Emily there are no other good competitors this year. It's going to be a very blah medals ceremony at Nationals this year.

~Z

that's right. And the network is probably right in choosing to show it in the afternoon instead of in primetime. Nats is always clear-cut (we all knew Kwan was going to win all those years and Cohen was going to win in 06) but this year it's going to be especially bleh. This is Kimmie's title to lose. I don't believe Emily can seriously challenge her at her current status.