Grand Prix Final - Preview

tae04 said:

Well, one prediction that will stand is Sebestyen dead last. She does not deserve to be there at all.

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:yes: agreed.

What if she proves all the naysayers wrong, though? It's not impossible- if Sarah Meier has a hard time the door might very well be open.

Sarah AND two of the Asian girls would need to have a hard time. Not very likely.

~Z

Zuranthium said:

Sarah AND two of the Asian girls would need to have a hard time. Not very likely.

~Z

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Yes, to medal. But, ummm, I was referring to Julia getting out of last place

1.Yu-Na kim
2. Miki Ando
3. Mao Asada

Basing how Joubert will do vs the Japanese men based on their NHK scores would be a big mistake. Oda and Takahashi would get much lower scores anywhere outside of Japan for the same performances they did. I realize now after watching that event I underestimated the power of home cooking but this event is on neutral ground. If Joubert skates like he did at his last event he will win most definitely with his quads, regardless of the "joke" scores of the two Japanese being higher in the free skate then Joubert's at Cup of Russia. I hope that is what happens to make a mockery of the NHK scoring. If Lysacek skates a clean short AND a clean long, and Takahashi has problems he could win the bronze. Oda is probably too consistent to have enough mistakes for Evan to beat him for the silver but you never know. Weir has not done a long program this year that could contend, and has not followed through on a long program with all his technical content in awhile.

Even basing Asada's scoring potential here on her NHK scores would be misleading. I think Kim has a great shot to beat her on the neutral territory of the GP final. I do think Ando has a shot of winning too. Suguri could sneak in for a medal. Oh yeah the writer is definitely right, Sebeysten will "almost certainly" finish last and even the mistakes from competitors would not help her in this field.

Seeing the farcial scoring at NHK makes any fan who enjoys fair competition dread Worlds being in Japan this year. Thank goodness it wont be in Japan anytime in the near future after this year.

As for the pairs and dance I think Shen/Zhou and Zhang/Zhang is a toss up, the Germans and russians for bronze is a toss up, the Americans and Canadians for 5th is a toss up. The dance the Bulgarians are favored, the Russians are their biggest threats, the Canadians are contenders to win but also could be 4th or 5th, Belbin/Agosto or the French would do well to get a medal period.

christinaskater said:

1.Yu-Na kim
2. Miki Ando
3. Mao Asada

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Any prediction is a good one in this competition but I prefer the next King and Queen of the GPs to be:

Brian Joubert and Miki Ando.

Joe

1. Asada
2. Kim
3/ Ando
4, Suguri
5. Maer
6. Julia SEBESTYEN

1. Joubert
2. Oda
3. Lysachek
4, Takahashi
5. Wier
6. Prober


1. Shen-Gao
2. Petrova-Tihonov
3. Zhang/Zhang
4. Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY
5. Rena INOUE / John BALDWIN
6. Valerie MARCOUX / Craig BUNTIN

1. Oxana DOMNINA / Maxim SHABALIN
2. Albena DENKOVA / Maxim STAVISKI
3. Marie-France DUBREUIL / Patice LAUZON
4. Tanith BELBIN / Benjamin AGOSTO
5. Isabelle DELOBEL / Olivier SHOENFELDER
6. Melissa GREGORY / Denis PETUKHOV

I believe Joubert is more prone to little mistakes than Oda. Even with his illness Oda programs had an overall improvement and he will be feeling much better. I also enjoy Oda presentaion a lot better than Joubert. I'll think Oda will take the short a four point lead. He'll loose the long to Joubert by 3.68 points but still end up winning gold.Of course Oda will have to put down back to back perfect programs, if anyone can do it he can.

enlight78 said:

He'll loose the long to Joubert by 3.68 points but still end up winning gold.

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Now that's my kind of post! (But I think it will be 3.72 points, LOL.)

slutskayafan21 said:

Seeing the farcial scoring at NHK makes any fan who enjoys fair competition dread Worlds being in Japan this year. Thank goodness it wont be in Japan anytime in the near future after this year.

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A little home-cooking, yes. But Oda's s.p. score at SA was similar to his NHK score for the short program. For the LP at Skate America, one of his triple axels was downgraded to a double and got negative GOE, and the LP as a whole was less polished, and he still nearly hit 150.

Is there any place that doesn't have judging issues sometimes? Personally, I don't think there's anything unusually unfair about judging in Japan--especially because it's an international judging panel.

I, too, would like to see all these ladies skate cleanly. It would be interesting to see what the judges would do with that. It would be very close indeed.

If Miki continues to skate well, she could easily make the top spot on the podium. The judges tend to like the powerful jumpers. I prefer the artistic, graceful skaters so my pick would be Ya Na or Mao.

Dizzy

Oda is Quadless and Lambiel is 3Aless. How important are these jumps at the World Championships? Between the two I find Lambiel more capable of the LP than Oda (JMO). But in the long run, unless something strange happens to him, I think this Worlds is going to Joubert but Oda has the home country with him so there is a possible toss up. Lambiel will be bronze.

I'll be waiting to see both the GP Final and the Euros on TV before placing any bets.

Joe

Joesitz said:

Oda is Quadless and Lambiel is 3Aless. How important are these jumps at the World Championships? Between the two I find Lambiel more capable of the LP than Oda (JMO). But in the long run, unless something strange happens to him, I think this Worlds is going to Joubert but Oda has the home country with him so there is a possible toss up. Lambiel will be bronze.

I'll be waiting to see both the GP Final and the Euros on TV before placing any bets.

Joe

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Oda is planning a quad toe in the GPF, which could either be great or a disaster for him. With the potential for injuries, I don't know what things will be like at Worlds.
I watched Lambiel's Cup of China program from last year--he scored, I think, 133 in the LP; but this year at Skate Canada, with the mistakes, he scored 146. He could come back strong by Worlds. Joubert could be strong, or hampered by injuries--training the quads lends itself to that, I guess.
I was impressed that Takahashi said he felt confident in his jumps, and then went out and put them all in right, not just in the competition, but in the exhibition after. Maybe his problems in competition have been more physical than mental, in which case he might start becoming more consistant now that he feels confident with the jumps.

I'm anticipating the Dance GPF most. I think it might be the most important competition this year, as dance teams are jockeying for positions for this year's worlds, next year, and so on. The image of the medalists here will be in the minds of judges until March.

In the other disciplines, changes in the standing from GPF to Worlds are expected.

Bruin714 said:

I'm anticipating the Dance GPF most. I think it might be the most important competition this year, as dance teams are jockeying for positions for this year's worlds, next year, and so on. The image of the medalists here will be in the minds of judges until March.

In the other disciplines, changes in the standing from GPF to Worlds are expected.

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The GPF has never been a good predictor of late season success, not even in ice dance.

2005 GPF: neither B/A nor Den/Sta went to the GPF. B/A won Olympic and World medals, and Den/Sta won the World Championship.

2004 GPF: Den/Sta medaled at the GPF but finished 5th at Worlds, while G/G didn't go the the GPF but medaled at Worlds.

2003 GPF: B/A medaled at the GPF but finished 5th at Worlds.

2002 GPF: N/K medaled at the GPF but finished 4th at Worlds. B/K didn't compete in the GP but won 2003 Worlds.

2001 GPF: B/K won the GPF and D/V won bronze, but both finished off the podium at the Olympics. L/A didn't do the GP but won Olympic silver and World gold.

Joesitz said:

Oda is Quadless and Lambiel is 3Aless. How important are these jumps at the World Championships? Between the two I find Lambiel more capable of the LP than Oda (JMO). But in the long run, unless something strange happens to him, I think this Worlds is going to Joubert but Oda has the home country with him so there is a possible toss up. Lambiel will be bronze.

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It will be very interesting to see how the CoP works out in this situation. To me, if Joubert lands three quads and a triple Axel, and otherwise doesn't fall down, I don't see how he can lose.

But what if Lambiel does two great quads, maybe a triple Axel, maybe not, but with great spins and moves in the field, and outstanding choreography and interpretation?

What if Oda doesn't bring a quad, but does two marvellous triple Axels and a bunch of other triple-triple combinations, skates with fire and pizzaz, and charms the audience with his showmanship. How will the points work out?

And I can't rule out Takahashi.

or Jeff Buttle, Johnny Weir and Evan Lysacek (who could do a clean quad).

While Oda has planned a quad in his program, will he not change it to a triple at the last minute?

Will Buttle get back in shape with a two foot a quad and get points for it? He has everything else.

Will Weir wow the Japanese crowd?

Will Lysacek do a clean SP? He has the LP.

And let's not count Takahashi out. And let's consider Carriere as the spoiler.

Only the Gods know for sure.

Joe

debdelilah said:

I was impressed that Takahashi said he felt confident in his jumps, and then went out and put them all in right, not just in the competition, but in the exhibition after. Maybe his problems in competition have been more physical than mental, in which case he might start becoming more consistant now that he feels confident with the jumps.

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I don't know about physical problems, but through Campbell's and Skate Canada he had problems with his skates. Last season, he could never get the quad consistent because his boots broke down too often (every time it started to become consistent, his boots would die), so this season he decided to try stiffer boots from a different maker. He got those new boots a week before Campbell's and used them through Skate Canada. But after Skate Canada, it was obvious that the new ones weren't working out well, so he went to Switzerland to get a new pair of boots from his old maker. He looked much more comfortable with his jumps at NHK, so hopefully he'll continue to show that same consistency through the rest of the season. Though, I hope he's not just back to square one now regarding the quad/boots breaking down issue, and can actually get the quad consistent, too.

chuckm said:

The GPF has never been a good predictor of late season success, not even in ice dance.

2005 GPF: neither B/A nor Den/Sta went to the GPF. B/A won Olympic and World medals, and Den/Sta won the World Championship.

2004 GPF: Den/Sta medaled at the GPF but finished 5th at Worlds, while G/G didn't go the the GPF but medaled at Worlds.

2003 GPF: B/A medaled at the GPF but finished 5th at Worlds.

2002 GPF: N/K medaled at the GPF but finished 4th at Worlds. B/K didn't compete in the GP but won 2003 Worlds.

2001 GPF: B/K won the GPF and D/V won bronze, but both finished off the podium at the Olympics. L/A didn't do the GP but won Olympic silver and World gold.

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I remember back in 97 as well when Bourne/Kraatz beat Krylova/Ovsiannikov at the GP final(in Canada)in a narrow split victory the Canadian press were coronating Bourne/Kraatz as certain to beat Krylova/Ovsiannikov for silver at Worlds and possably to beat Gritschuk/Platov for Gold at Worlds and were shocked when they won only bronze at Worlds. Similar surprise to their results at Olympics and Worlds were expressed by the Canadian media, based on their winning the 2002 GP final over Anissina/Peizerat, again in Canada.

Joesitz said:

or Jeff Buttle, Johnny Weir and Evan Lysacek (who could do a clean quad).

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Quite likely none of them but if I could an order of likelihood to do one I would go Weir, Lysacek, Buttle in that ordeer.

While Oda has planned a quad in his program, will he not change it to a triple at the last minute?

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I am surprised he does not do a quad since his jump technique is better then almost all the guys who do one.

Will Buttle get back in shape with a two foot a quad and get points for it? He has everything else.

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He does not ever two foot the quad, he falls on it, and usually misses other triples, and that is even when he is healthy.