Does Emily Hughes have a shot at the National Title?

chuckm · Dec 26, 2006

Oscilla said:
Junior Worlds 2005? IIRC, Emily was 3th, Kimmie 4th.

That was Emily's one and only clean FS. She hasn't skated a clean one since then.

BTW, "clean Sasha" is an oxymoron, at least as far as a major FS is concerned. The only clean Sasha free skates were at cheesefests: one in the fall of 2003 and one in the spring of 2004. She has never skated a clean FS in the GP, at Worlds or at Olympics.

SeaniBu · Dec 26, 2006

chuckm said:
BTW, "clean ...

I Humbly inquire the definition of "clean." Would this be free of any mistake or small mistakes, etc...? I am not being sarcastic at all, just trying to get the parameters of the definition or use of the term. I think my use must be wrong.

My Idea is that I have never seen a 100% clean from anyone (but remember I have not seen as many as most of you). So does "clean" have exceptions - slight mistakes that are justifiable?

R.D. · Dec 26, 2006

Fossi said:
did Kimmie get help from Cohen, or did Kimmie just live up to her potential while cohen skated a "Sasha Program?" Has a clean Cohen ever beaten a clean Kimmie? Remember, Fumie and Sokolova also beat Cohen in the LP at Worlds. Alas that is a different thread but a fun one! I think Emily could very well challenge Kimmie if she skates clean. There is no real rivalrly in US skating at the moment, but hopefully after Nationals there will be one!
Hey Red Dog, come to think of it. Sasha never won the LP in any of her GP events or events, except US Nationals last year and that was a messy win. Maybe R&J wasn't such a great idea for SAsha? One more question taht might be fun. When have Kimmie and Emily ever gone head to head in an international event except Worlds and the Olympics?

hey, I know you're the thread starter but this isn't a Cohen thread. Really, let's just move past her and Kwan, shall we? They're old news. They can be referenced but we've beaten the discussion part to the ground.

Kimmie did her job at 06 Worlds; everyone else's performance was out of her control (or at least let's hope :laugh:

j/k ) Let's hope Emily can do the same at Nats, regardless of whether or not Kimmie can deliver herself. I have this feeling though that both will make major mistakes. In that case the title is Kimmie's

Japanese nationals would actually be more interesting to see. It should be going on right now...?

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 26, 2006

Yeah - she has a shot at it.

Joe

iloveaxel · Dec 26, 2006

priority

This year, I'm more interested in Japanese nationals instead of U.S. nationals.
I am also more interested in Junior ladies instead of Emily, Kimmie because we have Caroline Zhang to get excited about.

Japanese nationals start tomorrow. Chinese natioals also start tomorrow although nothing exciting there.

R.D. · Dec 26, 2006

ok, thanks for the info. The forums will surely be busy during that time. I also bet some vids wil show up on You Tube.

I stand by what I said before about this Caroline- she's a non-factor right now where it matters. She may manage to make a splash around Vancouver time- maybe even get on the team- but until then you won't hear me talking about her much.

This thread is about Emily and her competitors at US Nats. Asking this question I'd say is like asking whether Rochette could have won worlds last year. I mean, the possibility, the scenario is there but what are the odds that it will unfold?

Tonichelle · Dec 26, 2006

SeaniBu said:
I Humbly inquire the definition of "clean." Would this be free of any mistake or small mistakes, etc...? I am not being sarcastic at all, just trying to get the parameters of the definition or use of the term. I think my use must be wrong.

My Idea is that I have never seen a 100% clean from anyone (but remember I have not seen as many as most of you). So does "clean" have exceptions - slight mistakes that are justifiable?

sean - clean means no blatant mistakes.. ie falls, pops, two foots, slips, trips, etc...

depending on who you talk to flutzes, lips, etc can be counted as a mistake or ignored (if you're in Weiss's camp they normally turn a blind eye to even two footing lol)

SeaniBu · Dec 26, 2006

Tonichelle said:
sean - clean means no blatant mistakes.. ie falls, pops, two foots, slips, trips, etc...

depending on who you talk to flutzes, lips, etc can be counted as a mistake or ignored (if you're in Weiss's camp they normally turn a blind eye to even two footing lol)

Thanks toni. With that I now (having a different impression of "clean")would disagree with the

chuckm said:
That was Emily's one and only clean FS. She hasn't skated a clean one since then.

BTW, "clean Sasha" is an oxymoron, at least as far as a major FS is concerned. The only clean Sasha free skates were at cheesefests: one in the fall of 2003 and one in the spring of 2004. She has never skated a clean FS in the GP, at Worlds or at Olympics.

But that would just be my take on the term "clean." And that it is open to interpretation.

Fossi · Dec 26, 2006

Reddog. You brought Sasha up in post #18 (I had to check because I thought I was going loco) so I just added and asked about what you posted. If youdon't like to discuss Ms. Cohen, why bring her into the debate?:sheesh:

R.D. · Dec 26, 2006

Fossi said:
Reddog. You brought Sasha up in post #18 (I had to check because I thought I was going loco) so I just added and asked about what you posted. If youdon't like to discuss Ms. Cohen, why bring her into the debate?:sheesh:

It was only a mention of her to give an example...a supporting statement to my comment on the thread topic. I didn't want to launch a side discussion about her. There are multiple other threads to do that, but this thread should be saved for Emiy et al. JMO...but I guess since you're the starter of this thread you should be capable of hijacking your own thread... :laugh:

j/k.

Also noticed I said (in response to your post):

hey, I know you're the thread starter but this isn't a Cohen thread. Really, let's just move past her and Kwan, shall we? They're old news. They can be referenced but we've beaten the discussion part to the ground.

Back to Emily...I wonder if she's also one to peak later in the season...IIRC she didn't do very well either in the GP last year. I think the best case scenario for this year's nats is that both Emily and Kimmie wow the crowd (I think Meissner will get the edge as the WC if that happens) and one of the other girls shows up to take a strong 3rd.

*~RussianBleux~* · Dec 26, 2006

I think she does! As a matter of fact, these are all of the ladies I think have a shot at the National Title this year: Kimmie, Emily, Katy, Beatrisa, Alissa, and Christine.

I'm not counting anyone out...IMO there is no obvious winner yet. Kimmie may be the World Champion but she hasn't skated well this season at all. She is no Michelle(my appologies to the "lets leave Michelle and Sasha out of it" crew), if she misses her triple axel(which she very well might) it could be anyone's game and if she skates poorly on top of that it's definitely anyone's game. I find nothing "special" about her skating and I don't think "wow" when she takes the ice so she won't be "held up" like some may argue that Michelle *might* have been at times. She's going to need to bring her A game in order to have a sure shot at the title. If she doesn't then I think that any of the other 5 girls has a shot at the title if they lay down a great performance.

Sure Kimmie and Emily may seem to be a lock for 1 and 2 but ice is slippery. No one has done well at all this season and it will all depend on who is able to make improvements before Nationals. It is obvious that Kimmie and Emily will need to make major mistakes in order for some of the other girls I mentioned to win and I think this scenario is very likely. Sorry to the Kimmie fans out there but World title or not I simply don't think she is good enough to be considered a "lock" in this case. If Kimmie skates great, triple axel and all, it's hers for sure regardless of what anyone else does. But if she falls and Emily is awesome then it's Emilys for sure. If they both fall(pretty likely after watching this season), then trust me there are 4 other girls waiting for the chance of a lifetime and one of them will step up for sure. This should be very interesting.....

R.D. · Dec 26, 2006

*~RussianBleux~* said:
I think she does! As a matter of fact, these are all of the ladies I think have a shot at the National Title this year: Kimmie, Emily, Katy, Beatrisa, Alissa, and Christine.

I'm not counting anyone out...IMO there is no obvious winner yet. Kimmie may be the World Champion but she hasn't skated well this season at all. She is no Michelle(my appologies to the "lets leave Michelle and Sasha out of it" crew), if she misses her triple axel(which she very well might) it could be anyone's game and if she skates poorly on top of that it's definitely anyone's game. I find nothing "special" about her skating and I don't think "wow" when she takes the ice so she won't be "held up" like some may argue that Michelle *might* have been at times. She's going to need to bring her A game in order to have a sure shot at the title. If she doesn't then I think that any of the other 5 girls has a shot at the title if they lay down a great performance.

Sure Kimmie and Emily may seem to be a lock for 1 and 2 but ice is slippery. No one has done well at all this season and it will all depend on who is able to make improvements before Nationals. It is obvious that Kimmie and Emily will need to make major mistakes in order for some of the other girls I mentioned to win and I think this scenario is very likely. Sorry to the Kimmie fans out there but World title or not I simply don't think she is good enough to be considered a "lock" in this case. If Kimmie skates great, triple axel and all, it's hers for sure regardless of what anyone else does. But if she falls and Emily is awesome then it's Emilys for sure. If they both fall(pretty likely after watching this season), then trust me there are 4 other girls waiting for the chance of a lifetime and one of them will step up for sure. This should be very interesting.....

Good analysis, but remember: The GP is, and has always been, a poor indicator of how the 2nd half of the season will turn out. We may find an invigorated Hughes or a determined Kimmie out there in Spokane. Can't count anyone out right now.

Fossi · Dec 26, 2006

I think that it might be a good thing for Emily to win Nationals. She will gain some confidence. And for Kimmie: it would make her more hungry and make her go and make improvements that she needs. I agree anyone can win this thing at this point. I can't wait!

blue dog · Dec 27, 2006

Tonichelle said:
sean - clean means no blatant mistakes.. ie falls, pops, two foots, slips, trips, etc...

depending on who you talk to flutzes, lips, etc can be counted as a mistake or ignored (if you're in Weiss's camp they normally turn a blind eye to even two footing lol)

Speaking of mistakes, I think jumps should be all or nothing. You either land a clean triple, or you get a big fat 0 for that jump. No more triple jump credit for a fully rotated fall, or two foot! And no downgrade to a double if you underrotate. You get 0 credit. If you land a clean double, then you get credit for a double...

I love Jeff Buttle and all the other skaters that fell at the Olympics, but the fact that he got credit for a quad...and fell?!

Programs will get uglier by the minute (as if they haven't already). Sasha should've just brought back the quad for the Olympics.

blue dog · Dec 27, 2006

Fossi said:
I think that it might be a good thing for Emily to win Nationals. She will gain some confidence. And for Kimmie: it would make her more hungry and make her go and make improvements that she needs. I agree anyone can win this thing at this point. I can't wait!

Actually that would be a good scenario--kinda like what happened to Todd in 96 when Rudi won. Both skaters improved because of it--Rudi got more confident, and Todd got hungrier. A result--both ended up on the world podium (of course, Elvis made a big mistake in the short, and the '94 Gold medalist --whose name I forget cos I don't remember much of his skating-- was as usual, bland).

R.D. · Dec 27, 2006

I don't count on Emily winning at all. Once again, I point folks to my first post in this thread...we're trying to create a non-existent rivalry. Now, Meissner is head and shoulders above Hughes. Em will need a SOHL and Meissner will have to melt down.

*~RussianBleux~* · Dec 27, 2006

Red Dog said:
I don't count on Emily winning at all. Once again, I point folks to my first post in this thread...we're trying to create a non-existent rivalry. Now, Meissner is head and shoulders above Hughes. Em will need a SOHL and Meissner will have to melt down.

I disagree about the extent to which your saying Kimmie will need to bomb and Emily will need to be awesome in order for Emily to win. Like I said in my earlier post, I don't find anything overly special about Kimmie and I don't find anything that great about Emily either. Besides Kimmie having the triple axel(which she might not even hit at nationals), I think they are quite evenly matched. I'm not saying that makes it a rivalry, I'm just saying that they are pretty evenly matched which makes it anyone's game that night depending on who skates the best. Neither one is set to be "held up" because of being astonishingly better then the other(and in Kimmie's case I don't think the World title is a contributing factor at all in this case, especially since she failed to make the GPF), so it will all come down to the skating.

IF Emily has the skate of her life, I don't think it will even take a melt down from Kimmie in order for Emily to beat Kimmie. If Kimmie falls even once and Emily has the skate of her life then I believe the title will go to Emily. The only way my opinion would change on that is if Kimmie landed her 3axel, and then a 3/3 combo, and THEN fell on something insignificant toward the end like a 3sal,3loop, or double axel. In that case even if Emily did have the skate of her life, I still think Kimmie would have a chance to come out on top because of difficulty. But if Kimmie bombs the 3 axel and/or 3/3 combo(s) and Emily is absolutely flawless, then it's Emily's for sure.

R.D. · Dec 27, 2006

I see your point and it's a good one. However, I still think that Kimmie has a 1-mistake advantage over Em. Since Em has never had a clean freeskate in a while (I haven't seen one from her in fact) it will be that much tougher for her to pull through. She seems to have jump problems which I'm not sure can be fixed in two months (been wrong before, though, hehe).

I expect Meissner and Hughes to be pretty close in the short program because they seem to get similar scores. However, it will come down to the Free and Meissner has tougher jump content than Hughes does. I think Kimmie will have to mess up on the 3A AND her 3-3 combo(s) to open the door for Hughes. If Hughes then makes a mistake (likely a fall on a jump), then Kimmie wins. Of course, that's assuming Kimmie skates first. If Emily skates first and messes up, you can take it to the bank that Meissner may simplify her routine and do just enough to edge Hughes for the win.

It's like the level between Cohen and Meissner last year (just a mention). Meissner has the freedom of one mistake or two. Hughes on the other hand will have to be perfect to even put herself in position to win.

Jaana · Dec 27, 2006

I think that Emily Hughes is one of the skaters that have a possibility to win the Nationals title, but only a possibility, because of course a lot depends on the performances of other skaters, LOL. I like the skating of Emily a lot, she has spunk, power and interprets music well, in my opinion. I have never had problems between her music choices and body type. She does not look more athletic than many other US skaters and a lot less than some others.

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 27, 2006

I've watched the Sectionals and there are a number of talented Junior Ladies now in Seniors. They are not yet ready for prime time Seniors. I would say Rachael has a shot at the podium because of her triples but she still has a way to go for a senior presentation.

Much of course depends on how well they skate at their best. If that happens I think it will be Kimmie, Emily and hopefully Bebe. Although, if the USFS plays a roll in it, I think they would like to introduce Rachael to the throngs. Just a thought. Anyway, we'll soon see.

Joe

Oh, I forgot.... there is Alyssa who if she's at her best could win it.

Does Emily Hughes have a shot at the National Title?

chuckm

SeaniBu

R.D.

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iloveaxel

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Fossi

R.D.

~RussianBleux~

R.D.

Fossi

blue dog

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R.D.

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R.D.

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