Mao and Yu Na
Do you think it is more than a 3A that separates them? Does the skater with no 3A have a chance? What if both skate their best?
Questions I can not answer.
Not sure anyone can answer. But I somehow believe that Mao is eventually going to drop the 3A (as well as Kimmie).
If both skate their best, Mao will win quite easily.
The base score for her short program is better by 1 point (doing a loop instead of toeloop with the flip) and her long program is worth a little more than 6 points in comparison.
"But wait, Yu-na Kim should get better Program Component marks". She doesn't, though. At the GPF where the only mistake in her long program was falling out of the landing on one of her double axles (as compared to a worst-performance-of-the-year showing by Mao), her "artistic score" was barely higher than Mao's. If they both skate clean Mao will have a higher PCS total in addition to having a higher total for her technical elements. Mao has gotten the highest Program Components of the year for her Short Program as well.
Why would Mao drop it? She has landed it many times under pressure, unlike Kimmie...
Originally Posted by Red Dog
Like it or not, Zuranthium's right on this one. Under CoP judging it's all right there in black and white. If both "skate their best," then, no, the skater with no triple Axel does not have a chance.
Under 6.0 judging it was not so cut and dried as to just how much advantage a triple Axel brought. At 2002 State America Ludmilla Nelidina landed a pretty good triple Axel and finished fifth. Yukari Nakano did a fully ratified but somewhat underrotated triple Axel and finished seventh.
The winner? Michelle Kwan, with four triples, a pop and a fall.
It's not just the Triple Axle. Mao could underrotate and fall on her Triple Axle and she would still be slightly ahead on the technical mark if everything else is clean.
This is because of the extra value she gets for her 3Flip/3Loop combo. In the short progam it gives her an extra point and in the long program it allows her to do a second 3Flip (whereas Yu-na has to do another 2Axle instead because she's already reached her Zayak limit with 2 Lutzes and 2 Toeloops).
I actually have a more long range view of these two... If Mao loses the 3a is she going to be as competitive? Based on what I've seen this year, when Mao's jumps are on point, she probably is unbeatable, but is she a great skater without that 3a? I'm not so sure...
Yu Na on the other hand, is awesome given her age and, if healthy, is the one to watch as we begin the next Olympic cycle...
Only time will tell...
Wow, never heard of this, no wonder a lot of MK fans are going absolute nuts on CoP.
Originally Posted by Mathman
I am not saying this as an absolute, all of these skaters are outstanding enough and there enough uncertain variables I could be wrong. However my guess is if the big 4 girls skate cleanly these would be the results:
short program-1)Asada, 2)Ando, 3)Kim, 4)Meissner
long program-1)Asada, 2)Meissner, 3)Ando, 4)Kim
overall-1)Asada, 2)Ando, 3)Meissner, 4)Kim
No I dont see Kim coming out ahead at this point if the other skate their best, and she herself hasnt skated a clean free skate yet, but has benefited that others have had even more mistakes. She actually is my favorite skater of that group but not the highest scoring if they all skate their best at this point.
I totally agree with you on this one. Neither actually seems to be becoming BETTER at it, and it's just too hard on the body over time.
Originally Posted by Red Dog
What are you basing your figures on. I just looked at Meissner's cleanest skate versus Yu-Na's cleanest skate, and their base value was very similar. Meissner had Yu-Na beat by basically .20ths of a point... While Meissner didn't have a second triple/triple, Yu-Na didn't compete her double axel-triple toe, so if anything Yu-Na comes on top there (actually!) And then, there's the fact that Yu-Na gets higher PCS...
Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
The only way Kimmie totally trumps Yu-Na base value wise is if Kimmie lands the triple axel, and Kimmie has landed the triple axel only once in competition. Two years ago, and it was underrotated. Now, don't get me wrong perhaps Kimmie could do it..
As for Yu-Na's Pcs being barely higher than Mao's that I thought was bunk. But I suspect that if Yu-Na had been up after Mao, her PCS would have been a bit higher. Plus, I think the judges are still getting to know Yu-Na Kim a bit.
Maybe Yu-Na will need mistakes to win, but the thing is that Miki has had one decent free skate this season... Mao has two very flawed free skates this season and has hit the triple axel once in a competition. Kimmie has had one decent long program, which wouldn't beat either of Yu-Na's top long programs, and has yet to do a clean short this season..
So the idea that all three Miki/Mao/Kimmie are going to skate perfectly is funny... I want to point out that I think Carolina Kostner could be a spoiler in all of this. Apparently, she's looked great at Nationals and has gained control of her speed.
Last edited by bekalc; 01-08-2007 at 03:47 PM.
Well, the question was, if both skate their best...
Here is Mao's jump card this season (with slight variations from event to event):
3A = 7.50
2A+3T = 7.30
3F+3Lo = 10.50
2A = 3.63x
3Lz = 6.60x
3F = 6.05x
3Lz+2Lo+2Lo = 9.90x.
Total jump elements = 51.48
It is impossible to beat this without a triple Axel. The reason why it is impossible, is that Mao has maxed her points even without the triple Axel (as Zuranthium pointed out).
That is, besides the triple Axel Mao has also done two triple Lutzes, two triple flips and three combinations. At NHK Mao scored 199 point total with this jump layout, despite losing -1.80 GOE on her 3A and having both of her double loops downgraded to singles.
So the question is not, who will win if Mao lands her stuff? Rather, the quesrion is, will she hit the triple Axel or not?
Going by results overthe past year, it's 50-50. Note that she has never lost when she hit the 3A and she has never won when she didn't.
Cup of China. No 3A. Mao loses to Slutskaya.
Eric Bompard. 3A. Mao wins over Cohen.
GP Final. 3A. Mao beats Slutskaya.
Junior Worlds. No 3A. Mao loses to Kim.
Skate America. No 3A. Mao loses to Ando and Meissner.
NHK. 3A. Mao wins, scoring all-time record 199 points.
GP Final. No 3A. Mao loses to Kim.
Japanese Nationals. 3A. Mao beats Miki, Yukari, Fumie, scores over 200 points.
Last edited by Mathman; 01-08-2007 at 03:49 PM.
Well, I know the question is if both skaters skate their best, and I think that right now of course it would be Mao because of the three axel. Although Mao landing it is questionable and a bet I might be willing to take. By the way, last year at Japanese nationals Mao did land the triple axel, if I recall correctly and still didn't win. I was more questioning the numbers involving Meissner vs. Yu-Na Kim.
Frankly, I think in Meissner's case to include the three axel as "Meissner's best." is a bit much when Meissner has landed that jump once (and it probably wouldn't have counted.) Until, I see Meissner land the triple axel in competition more often, I don't think it deserves to be counted as her best.
Thing about Kimmie and Yu-na, though- Yu-na actually shows something other than jumps out there. That, I imagine, gives her the edge in program component scoring.
Yu-Na has far more natural grace than Mao, Miki or Kimmie.