Was Emily Hughes robbed of the Gold at US Nationals?

Dorispulaski --- I really agree with you assessment. I would just add one tiny thing: had Kimmie been marked down in the SP for the triple-triple, we don't actually know how she would have skated the LP. That is, I agree with what you said based on the skates we saw, it's just that the scores/placements after SP can shape or effect how skaters attack or hold back in the LP.

Exactly...the X-factor I always like to talk about. That's something we often forget when we're having these types of discussions.

JoeSitz said:

Alissa, we all know, can she do it clean for a second time?

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Actually, Joe, the point I was trying to make is that Alissa's jumps are nearly all sub 0 even when she lands them (as she did in this skate). So she doesn't need a 'second time'. She needs better than a 'second time,' which may not be possible, as she needs basic technique improvement.

In the same way, Emily needs to put back the Wilson choreography she dropped, regain her speed, and still land all her jumps. It would be nice if she had at least one 3/3, too. Also a high hurdle to jump over. Emily at full speed, like Irina at full speed, has a charm all her own, especially live. At half speed for either of them? No.

Kimmie needs to have everyone else fall, just like last year, or to land 2 3/3's and a 3A.

I agree with you that a bronze is the best we can hope for any of these 3 ladies without massive choking done by Yu Na, Mao, Miki, Carolina, and even Sarah Meier.

chuckm, I am not comparing Kimmie at her best to Emily. Kimmie's LP was not her best effort, for sure. That's why she finished 3rd in the LP.

Kimmie hasn't done her best all season.

Red Dog said:

Exactly...the X-factor I always like to talk about. That's something we often forget when we're having these types of discussions.

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Exactly, "should'a, would'a and could'a in one hand and a dime in the other and you can't even buy a Doughnut."

Same situation with Caroline and Miria, "if she landed her 2a in the short"...... she didn't. This isn't even card counting. Start with variables like that and when could they ever end? Nothing really wrong with it. I think we all do it from time to time. "What if Tonya" to "what if Fumie." - used that example because they are so different.

Just to clarify how these girls skated at US Nationals

in the jumps:


Emily Base GOE TOTAL
2A 3.30 1.71
3F+2T 6.80 1.00
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80
3T+2T x 5.83 0.29
3F x 5.50 -3.00
3Lz x 6.60 0.71
3S x 4.95 1.43

TOTALS 41.78 3.28 45.06

Kimmie Base GOE TOTAL3Lz 6.00 -1.14
2A 3.30 1.29
3F+3T 9.50 -1.43
3S x 4.95 0.71
3Lo x 5.50 0.29
3Lz+SEQ x 5.28 0.00
2A+2T+2Lo x 6.71 0.57

TOTALS 41.24 0.29 41.53

Alissa Base GOE TOTAL3Lz+2T 7.30 0.86
3F+2T 6.80 -0.43
3Lo 5.00 0.71
3F< x 1.87 -0.77
2A x 3.63 0.57
3T+2T x 5.83 -0.57
3Lz x 6.60 0.00

TOTALS 37.03 0.37 37.40

Just to make it clear how many points Emily got on her jumps vis a vis Kimmie and Alissa, the above numbers were taken from the usfigureskating site protocols.

You will note that Alissa is behind Emily by 7.66 on the jumps-and this is Alissa jumping about as well as she can. Furthermore, she could well have had more than one jump downgraded as underrotation is typical for her.

You need to note that Kimmie got bit by this year's rule change on failing to add a second jump to her lutz-it gets downgraded to a sequence (0.8 multiplier). And her toe axel'd 3/3 got substantial negative GOE. As a result, she is down 3.53 points to Emily in the jumps, even with Emily falling.

Thanks for these numbers, Doris P. I note that Emily got about three and half total GOE on her jumps even taking away three for the fall.

When Alissa skates my heart is in my mouth at each jumping pass. The relief at seeing her still upright masks the fact that the landings are shaky even so. I agree that she will need "better than her best" when she goes up against the best in the world next month.

Glad you liked them Mathman!

It's necessary to understand that Emily's jumps in their own way are as good as Alissa's spins.

We're so used to ladies who flutz and who have tiny little jumps here in the USA. We haven't had a real Jumper since Tonya Harding, so we're not used to giving credit where credit is due for them. Emily's Lutzes are right up there with Julia Sebasteyn at her best. Huge! On the right edge!! Flowing on the back side!!! Good air posture (not Cohenesque, but still good). In fact, with curtsy's to Dick Button, First Rate.

Kimmie is that thing I have never cared for, a good 'package' skater. But kudos to her for being one!

With Alyssa the problem goes far beyond nerves.

Doris - How do the PCS scores range? it must be that Emily is not getting the win on that. I don't know if telegraphing jumps is a jump flaw or a PCS flaw. And Emily is not one for a clean routine (except SP in COC). There is more to a fall than a -1. It also takes away from a performance. I'm not putting Emily down; just questioning? Alissa does seem to have PCS scores in her favor if she doesn't fall.

Joe

Joe, Actually, there was only about 1 point between Emily and Alissa; almost a tie. Their PCS were about two points apart. Alissa got 57.14 and Emily got 55.18. (And BTW, that's about what Emily scores for PCS internationally, too.)

Kimmie got 56.94, almost as much as Alissa, and for a very flawed skate.

Where Alissa racked up the points was on spins and spirals with huge GOE-for example, her layback got nearly a +3 GOE level (it comes to a smaller addition, but, really, the judges could not have given her more points for these, and I would not expect to see them rewarded that high internationally. Nothing gets +3 GOE, generally. +2 very occasionally).

And although a point is a point, and Emily could have used the 4 lost points on the fall on the flip, on an element by element comparison, Alissa's worst jump, the downgraded flip scored a total 1.1. Emily's fall on the flip, even taking -3 GOE and the -1 deduction, left her with a net 2.05 for the jump. This makes it clear that you just can't pop jumps or squeak out underrotated jumps under the current system. It is hugely costly.

As to telegraphing jumps, it is a -1 GOE for longer preparation than average. The trouble with this is that it is in the eye of the beholder how long average is. I never saw this deduction really taken from Liashenko who is the worst telegrapher I can remember. Emily is no where near in her league.

Doris

Kimmie got 56.94, almost as much as Alissa, and for a very flawed skate.

I'm not sure if you are saying the judges were holding Kimmie up? I can understand a flawed Tech but not a Presentation. I thought the judges did not do any favors for Kimmie. She got less scores than expected and they were right to give her lower scores.

I think this will all come out in the Worlds on who the top US Lady is.

Joe

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Well, I would probably have had Alissa with higher PCS than Kimmie by more than that.

And yes, I think Kimmie, as the current World champion, got a few breaks from the judges. (no surprise there)