View Poll Results: If these skaters both skate cleanly who wins?

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  • Weir over Lambiel

    21 16.28%
  • Lambiel over Weir

    83 64.34%
  • Totmianina/Marinin over Shen and Zhou

    20 15.50%
  • Shen/Zhou over Totmianina/Marinin

    81 62.79%
  • Shen/Zhou over Zhang/Zhang

    83 64.34%
  • Zhang/Zhang over Shen/Zhou

    6 4.65%
  • Arakawa over Slutskaya

    57 44.19%
  • Slutskaya over Arakawa

    42 32.56%
  • Asada over Cohen

    63 48.84%
  • Cohen over Asada

    48 37.21%
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Thread: Who wins with the following pairs of people skating cleanly

  1. #1
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    Who wins with the following pairs of people skating cleanly

    These are matchups with both skating cleanly that I would like to see, to see who would win:

    Weir vs Lambiel both skating cleanly
    Totmianina and Marinin vs Shen/Zhou both skating cleanly
    Shen and Zhou vs Zhang/Zhang both skating cleanly
    Arakawa vs Slutskaya both skating cleanly
    Cohen vs Asada both skating cleanly


    Who would win each of these battles both skating cleanly. It is multiple choice in that there are 2 options for each of the 5 battles so vote for 1 for each of the 5.

  2. #2
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    Weir vs Lambiel- Lambiel would massacre Weir if both skated cleanly. Weir cant even beat Lysacek with both skating cleanly now. If Lambiel and Weir skated cleanly with the jumps they plan now Lambiel would probably win the competition by close to 30 points combing both programs. If Lambiel skated clean with no quads, and Weir did quads in both short and long Lambiel would still win I bet.

    Totmianina/Marinin vs Shen/Zhou-I hope Shen/Zhou. They have passion, chemistory, dynamics, that the Russians dont have the same way.

    Shen/Zhou vs Zhang/Zhang-Nobody can beat the Zhangs if they hit all their huge tricks I bet, their TES score would put them out of reach.

    Arakawa vs Slutskaya-Arakawa is a judges pet so probably her, it would be close though.

    Asada vs Cohen-Asada's huge tricks like the triple axel and arsenal of triple-
    triples would probably be too much of a gap to ovecome even with all the excellent areas in Cohen's skating.

  3. #3
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    Weir vs Lambiel - Lambiel easy.

    Shen/Zhou vs Totmianina/Marinin-very very close. I am guessing Shen/Zhou but it is too close to feel certain on.

    Shen/Zhou vs Zhangs- Shen/Zhou easy. I dont believe you are allowed to try the quad throw in both programs which would be the Zhangs only chance.

    Cohen vs Asada-Asada's jumps would take it, she scores well enough in the other areas to prevent Cohen from overtaking her.

    Arakawa vs Slutskaya-Assuming their skates were their normal performance quality, and they chose to do similar jump difficulty those nights, as for both the jump difficulty they choose to attempt flucuates, then Slutskaya.

  4. #4
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    I honestly believed these all would probably be quite close. Am surprised at the gap in voting so far in the Weir vs Lambiel, Totmianina/Marinin vs Shen/Zhou, and Shen/Zhou vs Zhang/Zhang. However since Weir has not put together anything close to a clean competition in quite awhile, Totmianina/Marinin and Shen/Zhou have not been healthy and competiting together for 3 years now, and
    the Zhangs have not put together anything close to a peak effort vs a fully healthy Shen/Zhou this year a guage is not easy.

  5. #5
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    Lambiel vs. Weir: Lambiel by a landslide.

    Shen/Zhou vs. Totmianina/Marinin: In a world with fair judging (no bonus points for being Russian pairs), Shen and Zhou by a wide margin. Ditto S/Z vs. Z/Z, minus the bit about Russians. This one I don't think is even a real contest.

    Arakawa v. Slutskaya: Again, assuming fair judging and equal jump content, I'd have to give it to Arakawa.

    Asada over Cohen, assuming a clean Cohen compeition could ever happen.

  6. #6
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    I almost feel embarassed having ever put up Shen/Zhou vs the Zhang/Zhang team now, in the specific hypothetical of clean deliveries of their performances. It is obvious others feel that is a no brainer, except for me it is unaminous.

  7. #7
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    Today there are protocols, so we can just "calculate" perfect programs.
    For the case of Sasha vs Mao, It's obvious. Mao wins.

    Sasha about 197 points
    Mao about 208 points

    Case of Arakawa vs Slutskaya

    Arakawa about 197 points (incl. 3S-3T)
    Slutskaya about 193 points (incl. 3S-3Lo)

    Case of Lambiel vs Weir

    Lambiel w/o 3A about 232 points
    Weir w/o quad about 224 points

    I'm not interested in pairs, so leave it to someone.
    Last edited by satorare; 02-12-2007 at 05:32 AM.

  8. #8
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    I did same for other skaters

    Ando 197 points (w/o 4S)
    Kim 191 points
    Meissner 190 points (six triples FS)
    Rochette 186 points
    Kostner 186 points
    Highes 177 points
    Suguri 177 points
    Nakano 176 points

  9. #9
    Figure Skating Is A Dangerous Sport Dee4707's Avatar
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    S&Z over T&M anyday.

    Dee

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by satorare View Post
    Today there are protocols, so we can just "calculate" perfect programs.
    For the case of Sasha vs Mao, It's obvious. Mao wins.

    Sasha about 197 points
    Mao about 208 points

    Case of Arakawa vs Slutskaya

    Arakawa about 197 points (incl. 3S-3T)
    Slutskaya about 193 points (incl. 3S-3Lo)

    Case of Lambiel vs Weir

    Lambiel w/o 3A about 232 points
    Weir w/o quad about 224 points

    I'm not interested in pairs, so leave it to someone.
    If Lambiel skated cleanly without a 3 axel in both short and long he would score much higher then 232.

    At the Olympics he scored a 231 with only no triple axel but a fall and near fall in the long, if you replace the -3.00, the -2.29 and replace them with his GOE on the quad(first one in long) and triple lutz(short) he did cleanly at the Olympics he already gains 7.5 points, plus 1 for the fall, plus another 4 points estimate on the PCS for two glaring disruptive mistakes removed. So his long is probably about 12.5 points higher without those 2 mistakes, even with no triple axel. Then in the short his quad-triple was flawed, and received -0.57 on GOE, his clean quads usualy receive a full point on GOE. He could have scored a 245 type score easily at the Olympics even with no triple axel if he did everything else cleanly.

    At Skate Canada this year his short he scored close between 64-65 in the short, his final spin which had a base value of 3.5 he got no credit for as he fell into, plus 1 point for the fall, his quad triple he fell on so another -3.00 GOE, plus 1 more point for the fall, plus 4 points for the triple toe discounted as the combination is abored. That is already 12.5 points, his final spin and quad combination almost always received an extra point in GOE when done well, so another 2 points, plus probably atleast 2 more point in PCS as if he did not lose atleast .4 per PC mark there is a real problem , so he would definitely be over 80 even with no triple axel. In the long he again gets -3.00 for a fall on the start of a quad--triple, loses 1 more point for the fall, 4 more points for the discounted triple toe, -2.00 GOE on his second failed quad(not a fall), -4.2 for the doubled tripel flip late. Since all his clean jumps in the long program at Skate Canada received high GOE, and the PCS loss with all those mistakes, combining added GOE and PCS a 6 point gain in total would probably conservative. His long program would have been atleast 20 points higher then his 146+ without those mistakes, even again with no triple axel. His total would have been higher then the 245 estimate of the Olympics.

    Worlds last year the mens event was lower scoring event. Even so his triple axel was downgraded to a double in the long so it was if he had no triple axel. Without a two footed triple loop(-2.00 GOE), and a 3rd 3 jump combo(1.5 for a double loop added to something) he would have scored 160 with no triple axel in the long. Combined with an 80 perhaps in the short he is a 240 there, and it was lower scoring panel then alot of others.

    Slutskaya is also higher then your estimate. Every clean short she has ever done has been between 65-70. Her clean long at Worlds last year would have scored over 135 had her 3rd triple loop which was discounted been changed to a second lutz or flip like she normaly does. Her clean long at Cup of Russia with a triple-triple was a 130. So 65-70 in the short, 130-135 in the long. A more average estimate should be around 200.

  11. #11
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    This is my estimation of the "perfect Lambiel" based on Calgary's.
    If he can land 4T+3T in short, it should around 236.

    2A______3.3_____0.4_____3.7
    4T+2T___10.3____0.0_____10.3
    CSSp3___2.1_____0.3_____2.4
    3Lz_____6.0_____0.6_____6.6
    CiSt3___3.1_____0.4_____3.5
    FSSp3___2.3_____0.5_____2.8
    SlSt3___3.1_____0.8_____3.9
    CCoSp3__3.0_____0.8_____3.8
    TES_____33.2____3.8_____37.0
    PCS_____________________37.0
    TSS_____0.0_____19.6____74.0

    2A______3.3_____0.4_____3.7
    4T+3T___13.0____1.0_____14.0
    3Lo_____5.0_____0.8_____5.8
    2A______3.3_____0.4_____3.7
    CiSt3___3.1_____0.5_____3.6
    CCoSp4__3.5_____0.4_____3.9
    4T______9.9_____0.0_____9.9
    3F+3T___10.5____0.7_____11.2
    3Lz+2T__8.0_____0.1_____8.1
    3S______5.0_____0.2_____5.2
    FCoSp3__2.5_____0.2_____2.7
    FSSp3___2.3_____0.2_____2.5
    SlSt3___3.1_____0.5_____3.6
    CCoSp4__3.5_____1.0_____4.5
    TES_____76.0____6.5_____82.5
    PCS_____________________77.0
    TSS_____0.0_____58.0___159.5

    TOTAL___119.4___114.0__233.4

  12. #12
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    Your estimations are already wrong though in a number of areas. First of Lambiel's planned short in the short is not a quad toe-double toe, a quad toe-
    triple toe if his planned combination, if he does a quad toe-double toe it means he downgraded what he had planned to do, that is worth an additional 2.7 more. Also his quad toe-triple toe usually receives +GOE, not a O as you have. His PCS in the short in Calgary was much closer to a 38 then a 37 as you have, his PCS in the long in Calgary was much closer to a 78 then a 77 as you have. So a number of things you have wrong to get that score.

    Secondly Worlds was a lower scoring event, I already pointed out Lambiel's final score at the Olympics and Skate Canada would have been much higher then his projected score at Worlds where the judges were not scoring that highly for hte men.
    Last edited by slutskayafan21; 02-12-2007 at 06:21 PM.

  13. #13
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    slutskayafan21

    I'm not talking about an skater's past performances, but how he/she can DO NOW.
    As for Lambiel, his PCS will definitely be downgraded if he appears at Worlds or continue next year.
    At 4CC, 3A-less Buttle was given reasonably low PCS for otherwise "masterpiece" FS, and lost to Lysacek. Lambiel will face same consequences. While Buttle's 3A is "very inconsistent" but Lambiel's 3A is "almost nonexistent". This difference may offset his merit as a quad jumper.
    He wont match with Joubet and Takahashi in PCS no longer, and I think he will be placed in 2nd groupe running for the bronze or exhibition positions.

  14. #14
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    So now I point out how your estimates were wrong and you change your story to now projecting for the future your opinions rather then using estimations from past events? OK I get it now, I wont continue on with this dialogue. Enjoy yourself.

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    zhang & zhang will beat shen & zhao

    I do believe if zhang & zhang was in their peak form repeating their last season's National performance, they would beat shen & zhao by pulling in huge technical points.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2dUqG7xTLE

    They usually have a PCS gap of 8 points in free skate, but if z/z hit big tricks such as throw quad sal, and 2A+3T, that gap will obviously narrow as well.

    I'm not a great mathematician, but here's some rough calculation:

    z/z:
    2A+3T: 7.3
    3Sal: 4.5
    quad throw sal: 8.5(?)

    total: 20.3 points

    shen/zhao:
    3t+2t: 5.3
    2a: 3.3
    throw 3sal: 4.5

    total: 13.1:

    That's a whopping 7.2 points different.

    It's going to be close, but z/z will probably win. The problem is z/z's conditioning this season is nowhere near their peak season, quad is out of the question; They have not been able to land 2A+3T since Olys, so there's no way they can beat shen & zhao if both skate clean this season.

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