Who wins with the following pairs of people skating cleanly

kittycat26 · Feb 9, 2007

These are matchups with both skating cleanly that I would like to see, to see who would win:

Weir vs Lambiel both skating cleanly
Totmianina and Marinin vs Shen/Zhou both skating cleanly
Shen and Zhou vs Zhang/Zhang both skating cleanly
Arakawa vs Slutskaya both skating cleanly
Cohen vs Asada both skating cleanly

Who would win each of these battles both skating cleanly. It is multiple choice in that there are 2 options for each of the 5 battles so vote for 1 for each of the 5.

temperboy28 · Feb 9, 2007

Weir vs Lambiel- Lambiel would massacre Weir if both skated cleanly. Weir cant even beat Lysacek with both skating cleanly now. If Lambiel and Weir skated cleanly with the jumps they plan now Lambiel would probably win the competition by close to 30 points combing both programs. If Lambiel skated clean with no quads, and Weir did quads in both short and long Lambiel would still win I bet.

Totmianina/Marinin vs Shen/Zhou-I hope Shen/Zhou. They have passion, chemistory, dynamics, that the Russians dont have the same way.

Shen/Zhou vs Zhang/Zhang-Nobody can beat the Zhangs if they hit all their huge tricks I bet, their TES score would put them out of reach.

Arakawa vs Slutskaya-Arakawa is a judges pet so probably her, it would be close though.

Asada vs Cohen-Asada's huge tricks like the triple axel and arsenal of triple-
triples would probably be too much of a gap to ovecome even with all the excellent areas in Cohen's skating.

slutskayafan21 · Feb 9, 2007

Weir vs Lambiel - Lambiel easy.

Shen/Zhou vs Totmianina/Marinin-very very close. I am guessing Shen/Zhou but it is too close to feel certain on.

Shen/Zhou vs Zhangs- Shen/Zhou easy. I dont believe you are allowed to try the quad throw in both programs which would be the Zhangs only chance.

Cohen vs Asada-Asada's jumps would take it, she scores well enough in the other areas to prevent Cohen from overtaking her.

Arakawa vs Slutskaya-Assuming their skates were their normal performance quality, and they chose to do similar jump difficulty those nights, as for both the jump difficulty they choose to attempt flucuates, then Slutskaya.

kittycat26 · Feb 10, 2007

I honestly believed these all would probably be quite close. Am surprised at the gap in voting so far in the Weir vs Lambiel, Totmianina/Marinin vs Shen/Zhou, and Shen/Zhou vs Zhang/Zhang. However since Weir has not put together anything close to a clean competition in quite awhile, Totmianina/Marinin and Shen/Zhou have not been healthy and competiting together for 3 years now, and
the Zhangs have not put together anything close to a peak effort vs a fully healthy Shen/Zhou this year a guage is not easy.

julietvalcouer · Feb 10, 2007

Lambiel vs. Weir: Lambiel by a landslide.

Shen/Zhou vs. Totmianina/Marinin: In a world with fair judging (no bonus points for being Russian pairs), Shen and Zhou by a wide margin. Ditto S/Z vs. Z/Z, minus the bit about Russians. This one I don't think is even a real contest.

Arakawa v. Slutskaya: Again, assuming fair judging and equal jump content, I'd have to give it to Arakawa.

Asada over Cohen, assuming a clean Cohen compeition could ever happen.

kittycat26 · Feb 11, 2007

I almost feel embarassed having ever put up Shen/Zhou vs the Zhang/Zhang team now, in the specific hypothetical of clean deliveries of their performances. It is obvious others feel that is a no brainer, except for me it is unaminous.

satorare · Feb 12, 2007

Today there are protocols, so we can just "calculate" perfect programs.
For the case of Sasha vs Mao, It's obvious. Mao wins.

Sasha about 197 points
Mao about 208 points

Case of Arakawa vs Slutskaya

Arakawa about 197 points (incl. 3S-3T)
Slutskaya about 193 points (incl. 3S-3Lo)

Case of Lambiel vs Weir

Lambiel w/o 3A about 232 points
Weir w/o quad about 224 points

I'm not interested in pairs, so leave it to someone.

satorare · Feb 12, 2007

I did same for other skaters

Ando 197 points (w/o 4S)
Kim 191 points
Meissner 190 points (six triples FS)
Rochette 186 points
Kostner 186 points
Highes 177 points
Suguri 177 points
Nakano 176 points

Dee4707 · Feb 12, 2007

S&Z over T&M anyday.

Dee

slutskayafan21 · Feb 12, 2007

satorare said:
Today there are protocols, so we can just "calculate" perfect programs.
For the case of Sasha vs Mao, It's obvious. Mao wins.

Sasha about 197 points
Mao about 208 points

Case of Arakawa vs Slutskaya

Arakawa about 197 points (incl. 3S-3T)
Slutskaya about 193 points (incl. 3S-3Lo)

Case of Lambiel vs Weir

Lambiel w/o 3A about 232 points
Weir w/o quad about 224 points

I'm not interested in pairs, so leave it to someone.

If Lambiel skated cleanly without a 3 axel in both short and long he would score much higher then 232.

At the Olympics he scored a 231 with only no triple axel but a fall and near fall in the long, if you replace the -3.00, the -2.29 and replace them with his GOE on the quad(first one in long) and triple lutz(short) he did cleanly at the Olympics he already gains 7.5 points, plus 1 for the fall, plus another 4 points estimate on the PCS for two glaring disruptive mistakes removed. So his long is probably about 12.5 points higher without those 2 mistakes, even with no triple axel. Then in the short his quad-triple was flawed, and received -0.57 on GOE, his clean quads usualy receive a full point on GOE. He could have scored a 245 type score easily at the Olympics even with no triple axel if he did everything else cleanly.

At Skate Canada this year his short he scored close between 64-65 in the short, his final spin which had a base value of 3.5 he got no credit for as he fell into, plus 1 point for the fall, his quad triple he fell on so another -3.00 GOE, plus 1 more point for the fall, plus 4 points for the triple toe discounted as the combination is abored. That is already 12.5 points, his final spin and quad combination almost always received an extra point in GOE when done well, so another 2 points, plus probably atleast 2 more point in PCS as if he did not lose atleast .4 per PC mark there is a real problem , so he would definitely be over 80 even with no triple axel. In the long he again gets -3.00 for a fall on the start of a quad--triple, loses 1 more point for the fall, 4 more points for the discounted triple toe, -2.00 GOE on his second failed quad(not a fall), -4.2 for the doubled tripel flip late. Since all his clean jumps in the long program at Skate Canada received high GOE, and the PCS loss with all those mistakes, combining added GOE and PCS a 6 point gain in total would probably conservative. His long program would have been atleast 20 points higher then his 146+ without those mistakes, even again with no triple axel. His total would have been higher then the 245 estimate of the Olympics.

Worlds last year the mens event was lower scoring event. Even so his triple axel was downgraded to a double in the long so it was if he had no triple axel. Without a two footed triple loop(-2.00 GOE), and a 3rd 3 jump combo(1.5 for a double loop added to something) he would have scored 160 with no triple axel in the long. Combined with an 80 perhaps in the short he is a 240 there, and it was lower scoring panel then alot of others.

Slutskaya is also higher then your estimate. Every clean short she has ever done has been between 65-70. Her clean long at Worlds last year would have scored over 135 had her 3rd triple loop which was discounted been changed to a second lutz or flip like she normaly does. Her clean long at Cup of Russia with a triple-triple was a 130. So 65-70 in the short, 130-135 in the long. A more average estimate should be around 200.

satorare · Feb 12, 2007

This is my estimation of the "perfect Lambiel" based on Calgary's.
If he can land 4T+3T in short, it should around 236.

2A______3.3_____0.4_____3.7
4T+2T___10.3____0.0_____10.3
CSSp3___2.1_____0.3_____2.4
3Lz_____6.0_____0.6_____6.6
CiSt3___3.1_____0.4_____3.5
FSSp3___2.3_____0.5_____2.8
SlSt3___3.1_____0.8_____3.9
CCoSp3__3.0_____0.8_____3.8
TES_____33.2____3.8_____37.0
PCS_____________________37.0
TSS_____0.0_____19.6____74.0

2A______3.3_____0.4_____3.7
4T+3T___13.0____1.0_____14.0
3Lo_____5.0_____0.8_____5.8
2A______3.3_____0.4_____3.7
CiSt3___3.1_____0.5_____3.6
CCoSp4__3.5_____0.4_____3.9
4T______9.9_____0.0_____9.9
3F+3T___10.5____0.7_____11.2
3Lz+2T__8.0_____0.1_____8.1
3S______5.0_____0.2_____5.2
FCoSp3__2.5_____0.2_____2.7
FSSp3___2.3_____0.2_____2.5
SlSt3___3.1_____0.5_____3.6
CCoSp4__3.5_____1.0_____4.5
TES_____76.0____6.5_____82.5
PCS_____________________77.0
TSS_____0.0_____58.0___159.5

TOTAL___119.4___114.0__233.4

slutskayafan21 · Feb 12, 2007

Your estimations are already wrong though in a number of areas. First of Lambiel's planned short in the short is not a quad toe-double toe, a quad toe-
triple toe if his planned combination, if he does a quad toe-double toe it means he downgraded what he had planned to do, that is worth an additional 2.7 more. Also his quad toe-triple toe usually receives +GOE, not a O as you have. His PCS in the short in Calgary was much closer to a 38 then a 37 as you have, his PCS in the long in Calgary was much closer to a 78 then a 77 as you have. So a number of things you have wrong to get that score.

Secondly Worlds was a lower scoring event, I already pointed out Lambiel's final score at the Olympics and Skate Canada would have been much higher then his projected score at Worlds where the judges were not scoring that highly for hte men.

satorare · Feb 12, 2007

slutskayafan21

I'm not talking about an skater's past performances, but how he/she can DO NOW.
As for Lambiel, his PCS will definitely be downgraded if he appears at Worlds or continue next year.
At 4CC, 3A-less Buttle was given reasonably low PCS for otherwise "masterpiece" FS, and lost to Lysacek. Lambiel will face same consequences. While Buttle's 3A is "very inconsistent" but Lambiel's 3A is "almost nonexistent". This difference may offset his merit as a quad jumper.
He wont match with Joubet and Takahashi in PCS no longer, and I think he will be placed in 2nd groupe running for the bronze or exhibition positions.

slutskayafan21 · Feb 12, 2007

So now I point out how your estimates were wrong and you change your story to now projecting for the future your opinions rather then using estimations from past events? OK I get it now, I wont continue on with this dialogue. Enjoy yourself.
:rolleye:

iloveaxel · Feb 13, 2007

zhang & zhang will beat shen & zhao

I do believe if zhang & zhang was in their peak form repeating their last season's National performance, they would beat shen & zhao by pulling in huge technical points.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2dUqG7xTLE

They usually have a PCS gap of 8 points in free skate, but if z/z hit big tricks such as throw quad sal, and 2A+3T, that gap will obviously narrow as well.

I'm not a great mathematician, but here's some rough calculation:

z/z:
2A+3T: 7.3
3Sal: 4.5
quad throw sal: 8.5(?)

total: 20.3 points

shen/zhao:
3t+2t: 5.3
2a: 3.3
throw 3sal: 4.5

total: 13.1:

That's a whopping 7.2 points different.

It's going to be close, but z/z will probably win. The problem is z/z's conditioning this season is nowhere near their peak season, quad is out of the question; They have not been able to land 2A+3T since Olys, so there's no way they can beat shen & zhao if both skate clean this season.

kittycat26 · Feb 14, 2007

Are the Zhangs capable of skating cleanly with the quad throw though? They only tried it once in competition and injured themselves. It that even realistic for a hypothetical.

iloveaxel · Feb 14, 2007

kittycat26 said:
Are the Zhangs capable of skating cleanly with the quad throw though? They only tried it once in competition and injured themselves. It that even realistic for a hypothetical.

Yes, they did it cleanly at 2005 Nationals before Olys. Although it's not an international event, I do know they invited international judges to this event. Watch the clip I provided, they did both quad throw and 2A+3T cleanly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2dUqG7xTLE

But obviously, it's not going to happen this or even next season. Their conditioning is nowhere near their peak.

temperboy28 · Feb 20, 2007

I have to laugh at some of the voting results here. Weir with almost a quarter of the votes between him and Lambiel skating cleanly, ok I know Lambiel is still way ahead, but how can a quarter of you honestly think that, are some of you out of your mind. Lambiel would destroy Weir if both skated cleanly, he would probably beat him by 10 points in the short and 20 points or so in the long assuming Lambiel did his triple axel and all the other jumps he had planned. Weir cant even beat somebody like Lysacek with both skating cleanly anymore.

The last program Weir beat Lambiel in was the short program at the 2006 Olympics when Lambiel doubled his triple axel, two footed his quad combo, bobbled out of his last spin, so gave up atleast 6 points in mistakes and finished 1 point behind Weir's new PB. Weir is not anywhere near as popular with judges as he was then and scores about 5 points lower probably with a clean short now. Thinking how high Lambiel can score in the long with a clean skate, and the highest Weir is capable of, it would be even more of a wipeout.

Also how can anybody think the judges would put a clean Arakawa over a clean Slutskaya at this point if they were still competing. At the Olympics Arakawa doubled one of her triple-the triple loop. When you add up the points, lets say Slutskaya had only doubled the triple flip, and not fallen on her triple loop, she and Shizuka would have had almost the same mistake right? Would it have been very close to who won if Slutskaya had only doubled her triple flip and not fallen on her triple loop? No it would have been a blowout win for Arakawa still, look at the point, Irina was almost 10 points back overall, and about 10 and a half back in the long. Falling on a triple loop is 4 points off total, even if she gained something ridiculous, like .5 on each PC mark, and 1 full point on GOE on that jump she still falls short overall by 1 point and 1.5 in the long, and you know that is an exagerrated gain as well. Even with almost the same mistake as Arakawa in the long the scores prove Slutskaya had zero chance of winning over Arakawa
had then been her only mistake. In fact the scores show even if Slutskaya had not made either mistake, doubling the triple flip, and falling on the triple loop, this is when it would have been extremely close for the overall gold and the long program win. With Arakawa and Slutskaya both doubling almost the same value jump Slutskaya had no chance, and with Slutskaya skating cleanly and Arakawa doubling one jump it was uncertain which wins. What does that tell you to any of those who voted Slutskaya?

As for Asada vs Cohen, Asada would crush Cohen with her jumping arsenal. Those who voted for Cohen were going by a nice sentimental choice or something, it is a no brainer, if Asada lands all her jumps Cohen wouldnt have a prayer. Cohen vs Meissner would be close with both skating cleanly, but Asada is just as strong in jumps as Meissner, but stronger on spins, sequences, and the second mark then Meissner.

Some of these poll options are silly anyway, I dont know why some of them were even made, and even worse is in 3 of them which are so obvious some of you even voted for the impossable one for some wierd reason.

krenseby · Feb 20, 2007

temperboy28 said:
I have to laugh at some of the voting results here. Weir with almost a quarter of the votes between him and Lambiel skating cleanly, ok I know Lambiel is still way ahead, but how can a quarter of you honestly think that, are some of you out of your mind. Lambiel would destroy Weir if both skated cleanly, he would probably beat him by 10 points in the short and 20 points or so in the long assuming Lambiel did his triple axel and all the other jumps he had planned. Weir cant even beat somebody like Lysacek with both skating cleanly anymore.

The last program Weir beat Lambiel in was the short program at the 2006 Olympics when Lambiel doubled his triple axel, two footed his quad combo, bobbled out of his last spin, so gave up atleast 6 points in mistakes and finished 1 point behind Weir's new PB. Weir is not anywhere near as popular with judges as he was then and scores about 5 points lower probably with a clean short now. Thinking how high Lambiel can score in the long with a clean skate, and the highest Weir is capable of, it would be even more of a wipeout.

Also how can anybody think the judges would put a clean Arakawa over a clean Slutskaya at this point if they were still competing. At the Olympics Arakawa doubled one of her triple-the triple loop. When you add up the points, lets say Slutskaya had only doubled the triple flip, and not fallen on her triple loop, she and Shizuka would have had almost the same mistake right? Would it have been very close to who won if Slutskaya had only doubled her triple flip and not fallen on her triple loop? No it would have been a blowout win for Arakawa still, look at the point, Irina was almost 10 points back overall, and about 10 and a half back in the long. Falling on a triple loop is 4 points off total, even if she gained something ridiculous, like .5 on each PC mark, and 1 full point on GOE on that jump she still falls short overall by 1 point and 1.5 in the long, and you know that is an exagerrated gain as well. Even with almost the same mistake as Arakawa in the long the scores prove Slutskaya had zero chance of winning over Arakawa
had then been her only mistake. In fact the scores show even if Slutskaya had not made either mistake, doubling the triple flip, and falling on the triple loop, this is when it would have been extremely close for the overall gold and the long program win. With Arakawa and Slutskaya both doubling almost the same value jump Slutskaya had no chance, and with Slutskaya skating cleanly and Arakawa doubling one jump it was uncertain which wins. What does that tell you to any of those who voted Slutskaya?

As for Asada vs Cohen, Asada would crush Cohen with her jumping arsenal. Those who voted for Cohen were going by a nice sentimental choice or something, it is a no brainer, if Asada lands all her jumps Cohen wouldnt have a prayer. Cohen vs Meissner would be close with both skating cleanly, but Asada is just as strong in jumps as Meissner, but stronger on spins, sequences, and the second mark then Meissner.

Some of these poll options are silly anyway, I dont know why some of them were even made, and even worse is in 3 of them which are so obvious some of you even voted for the impossable one for some wierd reason.

I think Slutskaya's LP was too weak in terms of content to beat Arakawa even if skated clean. She would have had to come up with a more challenging set of jumps as well as adding some high-scoring COP elements. (More step sequences maybe? The SP had plenty of them but her long didn.t)

As well as for Cohen, she could only beat Asada if the latter botched a couple of jumps. That's all there is to it. But then again, it's no fair comparison.. Is there any lady competing in the last decade outside of Midori Ito who had the goods in jumps to beat Asada. No!

satorare · Feb 21, 2007

krenseby said:
Is there any lady competing in the last decade outside of Midori Ito who had the goods in jumps to beat Asada. No!

Guessing Midori Ito's FS jump layout under COP

3Lz+2T
3A
3F
3Lo*
3S+2T*
3T+3T*
2A*
Base value = 44.1

Midori doesn't have 3/3 with 3 loop.
She could do if she tried, but I don't know for sure.
Mao has jump layout of 51.5 points.
Mao's jumps win over Midori's.

Who wins with the following pairs of people skating cleanly

If these skaters both skate cleanly who wins?

Weir over Lambiel

Lambiel over Weir

Totmianina/Marinin over Shen and Zhou

Shen/Zhou over Totmianina/Marinin

Shen/Zhou over Zhang/Zhang

Zhang/Zhang over Shen/Zhou

Arakawa over Slutskaya

Slutskaya over Arakawa

Asada over Cohen

Cohen over Asada

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Ice Is Slippery - Alexie Yagudin

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Similar threads