Judging controversy

sussweden · Feb 13, 2007

"In the other disciplines people are doing the math with the scores from jumps and ect, and in ice dancing- the math from the judging deals"

People yes, but how knows how it will be just wait until the worlds are ower. I actually think it is only in ice dance the CoP has work very well at least in comparisson with ladies (especially ladies) and men and pairs.

/Lena

chuckm · Feb 13, 2007

gkelly2 said:
With so many SSR judges and only 1 bulgarian, this deal looks impossible...unfortunately the deal russian first so that the bulgarian to be second sound much more reasonable to me... But knowing about the rumours about the canadians, what should the deal look like there? :scratch: :

If the Russians let the Bulgarians defend their title, the quid pro quo would be that the Bulgarians will back the top Russian Pair through this Olympic cycle, because the Bulgarians are retiring after this year and they won't have a top team any more. The Canadian #1 probably won't be retiring, and even if they did, Canada has another team advancing rapidly, so Canada backing the Russians for top honors for the next 3 years? I don't think the Russians would go for a shaky deal like that.

Mathman · Feb 13, 2007

blue dog said:
Speaking of judges, I know Mme. LeGougne cannot judge for a long time...

I think LeGougne's suspension was for three years, plus the next (Torino) Olympics, so she should be eligible to judge again now.

slutskayafan21 · Feb 13, 2007

Joesitz said:
That may be, but what I was driving at was that when Button was questioned about the chances of Kwan winning, he laughed and said "Not with this Panel of Judges". It did't matter who skated better or worse, it was in the judges hands and it was going to be Slutskaya, no matter what.

I don;t know what Bluedog knows. But if it's true about the top 20, is Kazahkastan(sp), Uzbekistan(sp), etc. still in the mix for judging?

Joe

Button's bias in the womens singles event in favor of the American women, and against the top European women, has always been blatant. The American women are great of course, but he refuses to ignore any of their shortcomings (Cohen's edges, the flutzes of Lipinski and Cohen, the flawed jump technique and posture of Hughes)while refusing to acknowledge any of the strengths of the top European women. At the 2002 Europeans he even said Butyrskaya and Slutskaya were not even in the same league as any of Kwan, Hughes, or Cohen. How Slutskaya, who had never lost to Cohen, and only lost to Hughes once, could be "not even in the same league" as them is incomprehensible.

Maybe the panel was designated in a way very hard for Kwan to win the 2002 Worlds, but since Kwan had a major mistake in her short to rightfuly place 3rd behind Slutskaya and Suguri; and first place in the free skate could have gone to either Slutskaya or Kwan, who both skated extremely well with similar jump content, but Slutskaya winning the gold even if Kwan had won the free skate, in the end it would not have mattered.

Tonichelle · Feb 13, 2007

He hammered Sarah Hughes and Sasha Cohen constantly... the only reason he jumped onto the Cohen bandwagon was because Kwan was gone and he had to push someone...

Mathman · Feb 13, 2007

Strange bedfellows

chuckm said:
First, go to any Junior Grand Prix event:

http://www.isufs.org/results/jgpfra2006/

This is the Courchevel event.

Click on the "Panel of Judges" for the Ice Dance event (this is for the OD):

http://www.isufs.org/results/jgpfra2006/SEG006OF.HTM

This lists the judges from #1 through #9.

Now click on the Judges Scores (pdf) for the OD:

http://www.isufs.org/results/jgpfra2006/jgpfra06_IceDancing_OD_Scores.pdf

You will see the judges' scores listed as J1, J2, J3, J4, etc. for each team.
Check out both the GOEs and the PCS scores.

Then compare them based on skater/judge federation and see the intrigue.

Very interesting indeed. In this particular contest (the original dance at the Courcheval event) the first and second place teams were Bobrova and Soloviev (Russia) and Hubbell and Hubbell (United States).

The judges that gave higher than median score in total PCSs to the Russian team were from Ukraine, Canada and France.

The judges that gave higher than median score to the American team were from USA, Ukraine, Germany and Latvia.

Interesting coalitions, with Ukraine aparently doublecrossing both sides.

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 13, 2007

Mathman said:
Very interesting indeed. In this particular contest (the original dance at the Courcheval event) the first and second place teams were Bobrova and Soloviev (Russia) and Hubbell and Hubbell (United States).

The judges that gave higher than median score in total PCSs to the Russian team were from Ukraine, Canada and France.

The judges that gave higher than median score to the American team were from USA, Ukraine, Germany and Latvia.

Interesting coalitions, with Ukraine aparently doublecrossing both sides.

Looks to me more like politics. Oh well, we'll have a job putting name to score. The bottom line for THIS WORLDS is that there are more Eastern European Judges than any other so called bloc.
Will that translate statistically to the most judges in the Men's and Ladies events?

Joe

chuckm · Feb 13, 2007

The most interesting JGP was the Final. Check out the ice dancing protocols on that one. Some of the judges' placements were off the wall.

ETA: Here's how I analyze the protocols.

For each skater, I add up the PCS scores from each judge. When I have completed doing that for all the skaters, then I go back and for each judge, I rank the skaters in the order of their total score.

I do the same by adding the GOE for each skater, judge by judge, and then rank those.

It's very plain that the judges are using the PCS scores as ordinals to place the skaters in the order they want. And there are patterns of placement depending on the federation of the judge/skater.

Mathman · Feb 13, 2007

chuckm said:
And there are patterns of placement depending on the federation of the judge/skater.

My little joke aside, these patterns are really quite apparent statistically. Any member federation could run them through an analysis and say, "hey, look, these countries are ganging up on us!"

Why don't they?

R.D. · Feb 13, 2007

*yawn* and what could they get out of it? it will likely continue. Best way to beat em is to join em (that is, stoop to their level) it seems.

Mathman · Feb 13, 2007

Well, in the case of USFS they could threaten to withdraw from the ISU if they didn't clean up their act. Granted, the ISU doesn't need the U.S. But I don't really see what U.S. figure skating needs the ISU for, either.

The Olympics are on there way out, and as for other international competitions, the number of people in the U.S. who even know they exist is miniscule. They could build up U.S. Nationals as the big whoop in the same way that the Super Bowl, the "World" Series, the NBA finals, etc., are in other sports.

iloveaxel · Feb 13, 2007

Mathman said:
Well, in the case of USFS they could threaten to withdraw from the ISU if they didn't clean up their act. Granted, the ISU doesn't need the U.S. But I don't really see what U.S. figure skating needs the ISU for, either.

The Olympics are on there way out, and as for other international competitions, the number of people in the U.S. who even know they exist is miniscule. They could build up U.S. Nationals as the big whoop in the same way that the Super Bowl, the "World" Series, the NBA finals, etc., are in other sports.

Or maybe a new coalition of U.S., Canada, Japan, China, South Korea etc, bacially 4cc and all willing european countries. I wouldn't mind such deal.

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 13, 2007

Hey Mathman. What are the statistical odds that 7 Eastern European judges for the Men's event will be on the official panels?

Similarly, the 6 in Ladies?

Joe

Mathman · Feb 13, 2007

Joesitz said:
Hey Mathman. What are the statistical odds that 7 Eastern European judges for the Men's event will be on the official panels?

Men's

If I understand the procedure correctly, the full panel for the short program is already set, with 7 Eastern European judges and 5 for the rest of the world.

After the random draw, here are the probabilities for the 9 judges whose scores count:

7 Eastern European, 2 everyone else: 4.5%
6 Eastern European, 3 everyone else: 31.9%
5 Eastern European, 4 everyone else: 47.7%

Total probability that the eastern European bloc will be in the majority: 84.1%

For the long program, Canada, France, Great Britain and Slovakia are definitely in, and there is a draw for the other 8. For the full 12 judge panel, before the random draw to determine whose votes count, the probabilities are:

8 Eastern European, 4 everyone else: 1.0%
7 Eastern European, 5 everyone else: 14.1%
6 Eastern European, 6 everyone else: 42.4%

Probability that the rest of the world will be in the majority: 42.5%

Probability that no Asian judge will serve on either panel: 100%

Countries in the best position to make a deal: France and Canada (Go Brian, go Jeffrey!)

hockeyfan228 · Feb 14, 2007

Mathman said:
Well, in the case of USFS they could threaten to withdraw from the ISU if they didn't clean up their act. Granted, the ISU doesn't need the U.S. But I don't really see what U.S. figure skating needs the ISU for, either.

If the USFS wanted to make a stink, it would have had to have been before the last TV contract. Pulling out of the ISU would have meant a big revenue sink, even though it wouldn't have been as big a sink as pulling out before the contract before that.

Now the USFS has no leg to stand on.

lanadd · Feb 14, 2007

chuckm said:
If the Russians let the Bulgarians defend their title, the quid pro quo would be that the Bulgarians will back the top Russian Pair through this Olympic cycle, because the Bulgarians are retiring after this year and they won't have a top team any more. The Canadian #1 probably won't be retiring, and even if they did, Canada has another team advancing rapidly, so Canada backing the Russians for top honors for the next 3 years? I don't think the Russians would go for a shaky deal like that.

I think that a deal between Canada and SSR(or some other country) is more likely then between Bulgaria-Russia, don't forget that Gorshkov wants a personal revenge for Den/S and he won't agree with Piseev if he wants to make such a deal...

gio · Feb 14, 2007

iloveaxel said:
Or maybe a new coalition of U.S., Canada, Japan, China, South Korea etc, bacially 4cc and all willing european countries. I wouldn't mind such deal.

Is that possible considering that in Ladies the rivalry for the gold is USA vs Japan vs South Korea and in men is USA vs Canada vs Japan vs France?

There is a possibility for a USA-Chinese deal. The USA judge will mark highly the Chinese pairs in exchange for the Chinese judge marking highly the American ladies. In Men the USA judge could help the Chinese men for a better placement in exchange of a help from the Chinese judge in the dance panel. Who will join this alliance? Certainly not Germany, obviously not Russia, the other former SSR countries nor France. But is unlikely that both Japan and Korea will join. Korea's only objective is Ladies and Japan is also very interested in Ladies.

I see more a Japanese-French deal. A French help for the Japanese ladies in exchange for a Japanese help for France in Ice Dance.

Alsace · Feb 14, 2007

Mathman said:
Men's

For the long program, Canada, France, Great Britain and Slovakia are definitely in, and there is a draw for the other 8. For the full 12 judge panel, before the random draw to determine whose votes count, the probabilities are:

I missed something here. How do you know that these four countries will have judges on the LP panel?

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 14, 2007

Alsace said:
I missed something here. How do you know that these four countries will have judges on the LP panel?

Check out post # 93.

Then we go to those permutations and combinations (Adv.Alg, remember?) which Mathman has done the work for us.

Joe

sussweden · Feb 14, 2007

The "nice" thing with statistics is that you can always put them in order to your own favour.

So I play the "devil" right now

Courchevel event FD
2 top teams pcs scores, US vs Russia

SS 1 - 7 (1 even)
Tr 1 - 7 (1 even)
Pe 4 - 4 (1 even)
Chor 1 - 4 (4 even)
IN 2 - 5 (2 even)

Result: in presentation the judges though the US and Russian team were equal, but in other components all judges though the Russian team was as good or better than the US except for 1 judges (the german too in IN).

I certainly won´t look at other old protocols just did this for fun, but otherwise I see it just as using good time for a meaningless subject. I rather see the comp first and then complain

/Lena

Judging controversy

sussweden

chuckm

Mathman

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

chuckm

Mathman

R.D.

Mathman

iloveaxel

Match Penalty

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

hockeyfan228

lanadd

gio

Alsace

Joesitz (RIP)

sussweden

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