Jr. ladies prediction

iloveaxel · Feb 13, 2007

http://www.isufs.org/events/cat00005650.htm

This one is easy, there should be no suspense, Americans are going to sweep the podium.

My prediciton:
1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Caroline ZHANG
3. Ashley WAGNER

mizu_iro · Feb 13, 2007

I hate to say it, but you're probably right...I really really would love to see Nana Takeda somewhere on there though!

ae9177 · Feb 14, 2007

Mirai definitely has a good shot, but I'm rooting for Caroline. She can do it if she can pull 2 clean programs off back to back.

redhotcoach · Feb 14, 2007

I'm going on a limb to say that Canada's Miriam Samson will place in the top three. She has a more mature skating style than the American girls. That comes with the extra few years of experience - Miriam is 18 not 13-14ish..
Plus Miriam has powerful jumps with strong landings and polished programs. She was great at Canadians this year.

Coach · Feb 14, 2007

Myriam has been landing nice 3Lz, 3F/3Lo combos... if she can skate clean and pull this off... BIG POINTS!

dancindiva03 · Feb 14, 2007

ae9177 said:
Mirai definitely has a good shot, but I'm rooting for Caroline. She can do it if she can pull 2 clean programs off back to back.

Anyone else think we've seen the end of Caroline's back to back clean programs?

Lumi · Feb 14, 2007

dancindiva03 said:
Anyone else think we've seen the end of Caroline's back to back clean programs?

You just really hate Caroline :laugh:

.

I think both Mirai and Caroline have a shor for the gold. And no, I don't think we have seen the ending of Caroline's consistensy.

dancindiva03 · Feb 14, 2007

Lumi said:
You just really hate Caroline .

I think both Mirai and Caroline have a shor for the gold. And no, I don't think we have seen the ending of Caroline's consistensy.

I'm just saying, I think the kid is learning what pressure is, and that its harder to stay at the top than it is to get there. She had an easy ride all year long and then all of a sudden, despite everyone's predictions of a runaway victory for her at Nationals, she finds herself in second.

evenstar · Feb 14, 2007

I think Americans can sweep the podium. Not sure what order though. Caroline will win if she doesn't fall.

Sylvia · Feb 14, 2007

This will be Mirai Nagasu's first-ever international competition -- it will be interesting to see how she fares here (Emily Hughes made her official international debut at 2005 Junior Worlds and won the bronze medal).

Besides the 3 U.S. girls, Myriane Samson is one of the few who attempts at least 4 different triples in her FS (salchow, loop, flip, lutz in her Senior FS at Canadians), but she has been inconsistent in her short programs internationally. Another contendor could be Finland's Jenni Vähämaa (8th at 2006 Jr. Worlds), 14 going on 15, who scored 140 points (53.95 / 86.05) in winning the Junior Ladies event at the Nordics competition last week and has added triple flip (SP & FS) and loop (FS) to her program(s) this season. Japan's Nana Takeda is the highest returning skater from last year's Jr. Worlds (4th), followed by Korea's Chae-Hwa Kim (7th), Finland's Vähämaa (8th) and Laura Lepistö (9th), and Russia's Arina Martinova (12th).

Spun Silver · Feb 14, 2007

What is Myriam doing in Juniors?

redhotcoach · Feb 14, 2007

Myriane Samson finished 5th at the 2007 Canadian Figure Skating Championships in senior women with a score of 145.73 ----Joannie Rochette won with a score of 170.65 for comparison.

Skaters for Junior World's must be age eligible - under 19 as of July 1 - rather than strictly a Junior level competitor.

Canada has one spot for a woman at Junior World's and is taking the best age-eligible skater they have to try and win more spots for next year....by medalling!!
The woman who won Junior in Canada had the skate of her life with a score of 109.40. She does only a triple salchow and triple toe - and a double axel that is not always strong.....in fact at the Cdns qualifer in December, she had some of her triples downgraded and deductions for the axel... and scored only 95.28 and placed 4th.

So Skate Canada is placing its future hopes and medals on Myriane, who has at least 5 triples and may pull off a podium position!!

Last year Skate Canada had two spots for Junior World's and sent the Junior Women champion because she had a triple lutz, toe, salchow and flip The second spot went to a senior women who was age-eligible.

BTW When Myriane won the Junior Women's title - Skate Canada chose to send Cynthia Phanuef - the Cdn senior women's champion - to Junior World's instead ------so now it is Myriane's turn!

Spun Silver · Feb 14, 2007

Ok, thanks for the explanation!

OT, but why is the age limit for Juniors set so very high?

I kind of liked Myriane. She is the Canadian Kimmie, IMO. I find her rather stiff and not very artistic, but she is talented and looks very tough. Look forward to seeing what she can do! I don't think she'll beat out Ashley Wagner for bronze, though - at least I hope not. I love Ashley's charisma! (She was born with it....)

dancindiva03 · Feb 14, 2007

Spun Silver said:
Ok, thanks for the explanation!

OT, but why is the age limit for Juniors set so very high?

Because not everyone hits their stride at 15 or 16 years old, maybe? I don't think that 19 for a Junior international competition is all that old. In how many other sports, besides gymnastics, are teenagers expected to be at their peak competitive form?

Spun Silver · Feb 14, 2007

I've heard it said in ballet (which is highly athletic) that at 16 you have all the technique you're ever going to have - after that it's just polishing. My impression is that most think the same in skating... but an age 19 limit for juniors suggests otherwise. :scratch:

dancindiva03 · Feb 14, 2007

Spun Silver said:
I've heard it said in ballet (which is highly athletic) that at 16 you have all the technique you're ever going to have - after that it's just polishing. My impression is that most think the same in skating... but an age 19 limit for juniors suggests otherwise. :scratch:

Thw two are completely different. But even if they were same and it was true that at 16 a dancer has all the technique they'll ever have (which I, having danced from the age of 4 until I was 23, when I decided to challenge myself and switched over to skating, do not agree with at all), then yes, maybe at 16 a skater has all the technique she'll ever have and that the rest is just polishing. Why not let the skaters "polish" themselves in the Junior internationals for a few years? Most 16 year old aspiring dancers, regardless of their technique, are not ready to become soloists for NYCB, ABT, etc. Likewise, most skaters at 16 are not finished enough for Senior international competition. Yes, there are the Tara's and Michelle's and Kimmie's and Mao's, but the vast majoriy of skaters are not complete skaters at 16.

Spun Silver · Feb 14, 2007

I'm not fighting (... about this

) but it's confusing when so many of the contenders in Ladies are 16-19.

iloveaxel · Feb 14, 2007

redhotcoach said:
I'm going on a limb to say that Canada's Miriam Samson will place in the top three. She has a more mature skating style than the American girls. That comes with the extra few years of experience - Miriam is 18 not 13-14ish..
Plus Miriam has powerful jumps with strong landings and polished programs. She was great at Canadians this year.

Very unlikely. All those talks about 'if xxx hits xxx, she's going to win' is sort of amusing.

This girl just had a good skate at Canadian Nationals. She had never been consistent before, I doubt she's finding that magic formula at age of 18 yo.
Anyway, her skating is really a blah.

dancindiva03 · Feb 14, 2007

iloveaxel said:
Very unlikely. All those talks about 'if xxx hits xxx, she's going to win' is sort of amusing.

This girl just had a good skate at Canadian Nationals. She had never been consistent before, I doubt she's finding that magic formula at age of 18 yo.
Anyway, her skating is really a blah.

And Caroline Zhang just had a few good JGP performances this year, while last year she was 8th in juniors and then this year she fell twice at Nationals when she was expected to run away with the gold medal. If Caroline can go from being a ho-hum 8th place junior to a (well, still ho-hum to me but at least she cleaned up her jumps) JGPF champion then why can't Miriam have turned her skating around this year? I don't really know anything about her but to me, 18 is not too old to become a consistent competitior. Besides, you are "amused" by all this talk of "if xxx hits xxx then she will win," well you could still say the same about Caroline. All she needed to do to win Nationals was "hit xxx", and she didn't. So to me, its still anyone's game. I'm not counting anyone out at this point.

iloveaxel · Feb 14, 2007

dancindiva03 said:
And Caroline Zhang just had a few good JGP performances this year, while last year she was 8th in juniors and then this year she fell twice at Nationals when she was expected to run away with the gold medal. If Caroline can go from being a ho-hum 8th place junior to a (well, still ho-hum to me but at least she cleaned up her jumps) JGPF champion then why can't Miriam have turned her skating around this year? I don't really know anything about her but to me, 18 is not too old to become a consistent competitior. Besides, you are "amused" by all this talk of "if xxx hits xxx then she will win," well you could still say the same about Caroline. All she needed to do to win Nationals was "hit xxx", and she didn't. So to me, its still anyone's game. I'm not counting anyone out at this point.

Caroline Zhang has proved she has the ability to be consistent. She's done 4 clean competitions back to back. This is unheard of. She is human, of course she would fall. Read my previous comments, I actually predicted she would fall at nationals.

Let's face it. 18-year-old is really a big number in ladies' skating, especially for a Junior. Believe me, as a Canadian, I'm not bashing them, but they are notorious for producing inconsistent skaters.
Another annoying thing is that this girl has NEVER actually hit a 3+3 in competition but you got all the Canadian fans excited about a 3+3 in practice.

Jr. ladies prediction

iloveaxel

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mizu_iro

ae9177

redhotcoach

Coach

dancindiva03

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Lumi

dancindiva03

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evenstar

Sylvia

Spun Silver

redhotcoach

Spun Silver

dancindiva03

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dancindiva03

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Spun Silver

iloveaxel

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dancindiva03

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iloveaxel

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