Which American Will be on the Podium

satorare said:

The US doesn't need to pressure particular judges.
ISU just can't afford to offend the biggest sponsor.
American skaters are always overmarked, especially ladies national champions.
The history tells itself.

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These theories are off the wall. Absolutely no evidence of collusion which would be the only way a Japanese judge would mark down a compatriot. Russia is soley competitive in Dance. No way can the USA win Pairs. That's China domain.

Do you believe the Americans will win everything in Tokyo? And where is this history you speak of? I'd like to read it.

btw = How does the sponsorship of the ISU work? Do you know?

Joe

The U.S will win only a dance medal at Worlds this year.

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If that.

Joe

I think Lysacek has a good chance of medaling at Worlds. Meissner does too, especially if some of the other girls have jumps that are cheated & downgraded. I do not think that Belbin & Agosto will medal. I think it will be the Russians, Canadians & Bulgarians on the podium this year.

evenstar said:

I don't think Emily can make to the podium w/o a 3-3. Kimmie should not attempt the axel, it will most likely affect the program in a negative way.

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I should hope the 3x3 is in the SP as well as the LP.

Joe

Is it really REASONABLE to give emily a chance for a world medal? I just don't see it happening. It'd have to be the miracle of miracles AND everyone else would have to mess up big. What are the odds of that? :scratch:

Red Dog said:

Is it really REASONABLE to give emily a chance for a world medal? I just don't see it happening. It'd have to be the miracle of miracles AND everyone else would have to mess up big. What are the odds of that? :scratch:

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Not to jinx anyone, but I'd be really surprised if that happened.

Evan's going to have the media pushing him as is Kimmie here in the US. She's the reigning champ our news media will be all over her. Evan's proclaimed this year is the year the US will stand on top of the podium, it could come back to bite him in the butt...

I *feel* that Johnny's going to come back with a vengence. I want to see him do well if not just for himself to see he can do it, but to shut those that have written him off.

The World Championships are just a few weeks away, and I have not seen any news of Evan and Kimmie in the NYC newspapers, but then, the Big Apple is a baseball town, and I am reading about the turmoil between Jeeter and ARod.

Maybe someone in the Times, will wake up during the championships. Nothing so far on NBC which usually has something on American skaters.

Until later, there is no media blitz for figure skating in the New York media now unless some of you Greater New Yorkers have been reading something about our Great Neck contribution to this event.

Joe

Tonichelle said:

I *feel* that Johnny's going to come back with a vengence. I want to see him do well if not just for himself to see he can do it, but to shut those that have written him off.

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ITA, only I'm not too sure it's going to happen at this Worlds. Next season, maybe.

I think kimmie,Evan, B/A have a good chance to medal. If johnny really want to show he is at worlds to win. He'll put a quad in his short. That way his score will be in the 80's like Oda, Takahashi, and Mao.
:chorus: :chorus: I'm just joking about Mao. Seriously if the pressure doesn't get to her;she'll be pushing 70.00

Tonichelle said:

Evan's going to have the media pushing him as is Kimmie here in the US. She's the reigning champ our news media will be all over her. Evan's proclaimed this year is the year the US will stand on top of the podium, it could come back to bite him in the butt...

I *feel* that Johnny's going to come back with a vengence. I want to see him do well if not just for himself to see he can do it, but to shut those that have written him off.

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I thought Evan used the word "we" when he spoke of the US taking back the gold. I hope he did. After all, the guy on the podium at Worlds has not been the mens Nat champ since 2000 -- and the year Todd won Worlds, he wasn't Nat champ either.

Well, for sure, it doesn't look like the best year for the US to fall into a pile of medals at worlds.

I think Evan has the best chance of any of the US team-but I would feel better if he could manage to give a decent SP in something other than a US Nationals competition.

I don't follow ladies very much, but I don't see any of our top 3 medalling unless it is a total splatfest. Kimmie, formerly the soul of consistent skating, has not put a good SP / good LP combination back to back this year. This is why she has had to come back from 6th place at 4CC's. If Kimmie can get her SP back in control, she will medal. If she doesn't, and if Emily could arrange to skate her SP with the original Wilson choreo and land the flip and lutz fully rotated, she could score very, very well, which would set her up in the final 6, with a small chance for bronze. Sad to say, she has scrapped the lovely Wilson choreo, though. However, refer to the lutz and flip in the 2nd half of her 4C's programs. They were huge and gorgeous. TV tends to make you underestimate just how Huge Emily's jumps are. The girl is at least 5'6" (her USFSA bio) and maybe taller, and you have to remember that when you judge how high she is getting off the ice. If you recall how Julia Sebasteyn and Irina Slutskaya were judged, given huge jumps without flutzing, you will appreciate how Emily gets marks when she succeeds in skating well. In fact Emily seen live reminds me a Lot of Irina seen live. I think she could make top 6.

Dance-B&A have a great OD, as usual. They have a good chance, as result, of skating in the final 6 competitors. Their Amelie program was better at 4C's than at nationals, and they have a significant amount of time to make it even better before Worlds. Dance judging is going to be a crazy free for all. B&A have a shot to get a bronze.

Pairs-the US never politics much for its pairs, and pairs in the rest of the world have been excellent this year. S&Z are pretty much untouchable for gold. They got 203.05 at 4C's. S&S are almost sure to bag either silver or bronze, depending on how they skate. They always get huge PCS scores, and their base difficulty is not shabby (their combined score at Europeans was 199.39.

PetTikhs, Zhangs and Pang and Tong are in the 175 to 185 region, again depending on how they skate.

If you check Castile and Okolski's scores at 4C's, and then check the fact that they landed everything in their LP and skated about as well as they can, they have no chance for a medal. They will be lucky to finish top ten. This is due to the fact that their jumps, as scheduled in the LP are 2A seq 2t with 2t as a single jump, giving them a base score of 53.81 in the LP,, plus they didn't get amazing PCS scores either. Their total score was 160.01 and the one thing they missed all competition was the 2A in the short. If they hit it, it's hard to see them doing better than 165. By contrast, base score for I&B at 4C's was 63.02, S&Z was 59.68, and Pang & Tong 58.78. C&O can't afford to give away that much.

So if either team has a chance, this year, it's I&B. Their 4C's comp was the best they have had this season, scoring a combined scoore of 175.45, which is just at the edge of the ballpark for the bronze. I&B do have a few things going for them: 1. Skated well at 4C's and the last Worlds 2. Beat PetTikhs at GPF and beat S&S in the SP at GPF. 3. Generally skate well in Japan 4. Rena has a large fan base in Japan, and Japan has no pair in the competition. 5. Still have the highest base score going, if they land both 3A's and the 3T. 6. Got rid of those dreadful SP costumes, going back to what looks like their 2002/2003 SP costumes (are new ones being built?) However, even given all that, they have only a tiny chance for a medal at Worlds, given that the US will not be doing any politicking for them. And M&B and D&D have a tiny chance too.

On the negative side, I&B are talking about adding triple twists to their program. I hope they don't. They don't get the height to have a clean twist, and their 3tw was always a chest crash. Their double twists are level four and clean. C&O are talking about changing the SBS 2t to a 3t again. Same problem. They don't land them. M&B have added a 3t 3t sequence which they performed very well at 4C's, only to blow their spins and footwork. Pairs could be a complete splatfest if they all do this.


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attyfan said:

I thought Evan used the word "we" when he spoke of the US taking back the gold. I hope he did. After all, the guy on the podium at Worlds has not been the mens Nat champ since 2000 -- and the year Todd won Worlds, he wasn't Nat champ either.

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he did use WE... but the assumption is the national champion... and the US media that do cover it will make sure to push the story - at least the ones that want ratings... I know I'd be hard pressed not to run the story that way (not mis-quoting him, just the fact that he says this will be the year)

I'm not saying we should be seeing the stories today... we'll see more when we get closer to the event... why they would want to start the stories now is beyond me. the event's not for a while out...

Last year when Kimmie won the World Championship, the NY TImes didn't devote much space to it, just a small blurb on the back pages of the Sports section. There was just one all-purpose story about US Nationals each day of the Finals, again on the back pages of the Sports section.

That's been the case since Kwan stopped competing.

Lysacek will almost surely medal.

Kimmie will probably get bronze.

Belbin and Agosto should medal.

I highly doubt that any of them will win, though.

~Z

Tonichelle said:

I *feel* that Johnny's going to come back with a vengence. I want to see him do well if not just for himself to see he can do it, but to shut those that have written him off.

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I love this idea! There is a great chance for this to happen. I am looking forward to seeing that. But a medal for him might be too much to ask.

Evan is a good competitor. Despite of his various missed skating details, the only reason he could not medal at this Worlds, IMO, will be he couldn't hold up any more under the huge pressure. I don't see that happening. However, the chance of getting the gold medal is almost none, unless the rest of the field helps him A LOT.

Bradley is not a competitor at this level, even though he is a competitor.

I don't see any chance for Kimmie to defend her title. It is so much harder for her this year than last one which was no pressure and no expectation from any one. A medal will be realistically possible. Emily and Alyssa's chances for a medal are none. Kim, Mao, and Ando, there are only three spots on the podium.

There is no any chance for Americans in the pairs. The Chinese will sweep the podium. Shen&Zhao will be gold. I love to see that and I think it will happen. (a small comment out of the topic: Zhao will look better if he could tuck his shirt in in the LP )

In ice dance, I have always loved Tanith and Ben. But it seems that the chemistry between them is less and less in the competitions. Of course, they will medal, silver or bronze, no chance for the gold.

chuckm said:

Last year when Kimmie won the World Championship, the NY TImes didn't devote much space to it, just a small blurb on the back pages of the Sports section. There was just one all-purpose story about US Nationals each day of the Finals, again on the back pages of the Sports section.

That's been the case since Kwan stopped competing.

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More fire for me to say the Times don't know squat

Anchorage Daily followed the skating coverage at nationals better than it has in years... and Ashley Wagner doesn't even represent Alaska anymore

They also ran the stories of Evan and Kimmie at 4cc...

not that ADN is a major paper or anything, but there are some outlets paying attention

jennylovskt said:

There is no any chance for Americans in the pairs. The Chinese will sweep the podium. Shen&Zhao will be gold. I love to see that and I think it will happen. (a small comment out of the topic: Zhao will look better if he could tuck his shirt in in the LP )

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I don't see a Chinese sweep this year, not with Savchenko/Szolkowy in the shape they're in this year. S/S were fantastic at Euros, and another FS performance like that may even give Shen/Zhao stiff competition for gold.

Tonichelle said:

More fire for me to say the Times don't know squat

Anchorage Daily followed the skating coverage at nationals better than it has in years... and Ashley Wagner doesn't even represent Alaska anymore

They also ran the stories of Evan and Kimmie at 4cc...

not that ADN is a major paper or anything, but there are some outlets paying attention

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It's a shame, because the NY Times once had a good feature writer who was reasonably knowledgeable about figure skating.

I think if it had been Emily Hughes who won Worlds 2006 and/or Nationals 2007, that might have been a big story, maybe even 'big' enough to make the front page. She was featured on the front cover of the Sunday magazine section with a major story in the fall of 2005, leading up to the Olympics. Of course, she is from NY.

The fact that Ashley Wagner once represented Alaska would be reason enough for the Anchorage media to have more expanded figure skating coverage.

not really, they didn't do diddly last year, and that was the last season she skated for the Anchorage Figure Skating Club