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Thread: Comparing Scores Pre-Worlds

  1. #1
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    Comparing Scores Pre-Worlds

    I think it's kind of interesting to look at the best scores this season from some of the top contenders going into worlds:

    Takahashi: 247.93
    Oda: 244.56
    Joubert: 237.83
    Lysacek: 226.27
    Buttle: 223.96
    Lambiel: 210.73
    Weir: 198.70
    Sandhu: 193.39

    And the ladies:

    Asada: 199.52
    Ando: 192.59
    Kim: 184.54
    Meissner: 177.78
    Kostner: 174.79
    Rochette: 173.86
    Meier: 171.28
    Hughes: 166.60

    Obviously these are from different competitions (I included the GP series, Europeans, and 4CC), but I think the fact that the Japanese men are so drastically far ahead of Joubert and Lysacek is a little startling. Likewise, Ando being so far ahead of Yu-Na Kim and the much-hyped Sarah Meier looking a little bit behind...

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    This is Asada's worlds to lose.

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    Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.

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    It's Miki and Mao and Yu-Na. Everyone else needs their help.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
    That's why you can't really compare scores of clean programs in different competitions among top contenders. There's no way the two japanese guys can beat Brian if he lands 2 quads and clean. Mark my words.

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    Forget what I just said! I should know better than to make predictions. I thought Shizuka would be fifth at the Olympics and Carolina third.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
    This is Asada's worlds to lose.
    It all comes down to that triple Axel. Suppose Mao inexplicably loses all her jumps except the Axel and the loop. She does

    3A
    3A+2Lo
    3Lo+3Lo
    2A+2Lo+2Lo
    2A
    2A
    2A

    That's 42.7 base points for a four-triple program.

    Kimmie comes out with seven triples includinmg a 3Lz/3T

    3Lz+3T
    3T
    3F+2T
    3lz
    3Lo
    3S
    2A+2T+2Lo

    Total: 42.4.

    Mao wins!

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    Joubert definitely needs three clean quads in FS to win.
    Otherwise, he can't match with Takahashi (and Lysacek) in base-values.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    It all comes down to that triple Axel. Suppose Mao inexplicably loses all her jumps except the Axel and the loop. She does

    3A
    3A+2Lo
    3Lo+3Lo
    2A+2Lo+2Lo
    2A
    2A
    2A

    That's 42.7 base points for a four-triple program.

    Kimmie comes out with seven triples includinmg a 3Lz/3T

    3Lz+3T
    3T
    3F+2T
    3lz
    3Lo
    3S
    2A+2T+2Lo

    Total: 42.4.

    Mao wins!
    In Japan especialy Mao will absolutely crush Kimmie on the GOE and PCS scores. There is more to how they score then jump value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
    Why would Worlds be different, it is in Japan too. If anything their scores will go even higher if they skate well at Worlds. Dont be naive to think the top Japanese will get lower scores at Worlds for similarly great performances to what they got at NHK. The reverse is true in fact.

    Joubert gives up lots of possable scores with his jump layout, despite how many quads he lands. A clean Takahashi, in Japan, could still beat Joubert with 3 quads, unless Joubert improves his jump layout.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
    Yes, I think that the home crowd is a factor, but in a big competition like Worlds it can work bothways though.

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    Can Mao repeat the 2A 3 times without penalty? (I realize she is highly unlikely to do only axels and loops, but I was just wondering...)

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    Quote Originally Posted by temperboy28 View Post
    Why would Worlds be different, it is in Japan too. If anything their scores will go even higher if they skate well at Worlds. Dont be naive to think the top Japanese will get lower scores at Worlds for similarly great performances to what they got at NHK. The reverse is true in fact.

    Joubert gives up lots of possable scores with his jump layout, despite how many quads he lands. A clean Takahashi, in Japan, could still beat Joubert with 3 quads, unless Joubert improves his jump layout.
    What does the jump layout have to do with it?

    does Takahashi back load and joubert front load?

    I can't say that i' had noticed.

    Ant

  14. #14
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Did they all skate at the same venue?

    Were all the judges the same?

    Scores are good to compare at one event only, imo. If the Caller is not playing games and all the elements are graded in accordance with the basic rules then one can look forward to the GoEs which are the most important factor in judging a winner and placements.

    However, a list of scores for different events (say at least 5 or 6 events) for each top skater and then averaged out for each skater, might tell you more about how good he/she is .and also how consistent he/she is. (Nats should not be included).

    Joe

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    Joubert's Jump layout @ CoR FS

    4T+2T 10.3
    4S 9.5
    3A 7.5
    4T 9.9
    3Lo+2T 6.9
    3F 6.1
    3Lz 6.6
    3S 5.0
    TOTAL 61.7

    Takahashi's Jump layout @ Winter Universiade

    4T 9.0
    3A 7.5
    3A+2T 8.8
    3F+3T 10.5
    3Lz+2T+2Lo 9.7
    3Lo 5.5
    3F 6.1
    3S 5.0
    TOTAL 61.9

    Lysacek's Jump layout @ Four Continents

    4T+3T 13.0
    3A 7.5
    3Lo 5.0
    3S 4.5
    3A+3T 12.7
    3F+2T+2Lo 9.1
    3Lz 6.6
    2A 3.6
    TOTAL 62.0

    Joubert doesn't have any advantage against main rivals in base-values even with three quads. And of course, he has the most risks to fall.
    If he wants to improve the layout, it's better to have two quads and one 3/3 (or 4/3). Anything less than that is a sure loser.
    Last edited by satorare; 02-20-2007 at 09:28 AM.

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