Comparing Scores Pre-Worlds | Golden Skate

Comparing Scores Pre-Worlds

A

ArwenIcePrincess

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 13, 2007
I think it's kind of interesting to look at the best scores this season from some of the top contenders going into worlds:

Takahashi: 247.93
Oda: 244.56
Joubert: 237.83
Lysacek: 226.27
Buttle: 223.96
Lambiel: 210.73
Weir: 198.70
Sandhu: 193.39

And the ladies:

Asada: 199.52
Ando: 192.59
Kim: 184.54
Meissner: 177.78
Kostner: 174.79
Rochette: 173.86
Meier: 171.28
Hughes: 166.60

Obviously these are from different competitions (I included the GP series, Europeans, and 4CC), but I think the fact that the Japanese men are so drastically far ahead of Joubert and Lysacek is a little startling. Likewise, Ando being so far ahead of Yu-Na Kim and the much-hyped Sarah Meier looking a little bit behind...
 
Mathman

Mathman

Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
 
I

iloveaxel

Match Penalty
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Mathman said:
Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
Click to expand...

That's why you can't really compare scores of clean programs in different competitions among top contenders. There's no way the two japanese guys can beat Brian if he lands 2 quads and clean. Mark my words.
 
E

evenstar

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 6, 2006
Forget what I just said! I should know better than to make predictions. I thought Shizuka would be fifth at the Olympics and Carolina third.
 
Mathman

Mathman

Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Red Dog said:
This is Asada's worlds to lose.
Click to expand...
It all comes down to that triple Axel. Suppose Mao inexplicably loses all her jumps except the Axel and the loop. She does

3A
3A+2Lo
3Lo+3Lo
2A+2Lo+2Lo
2A
2A
2A

That's 42.7 base points for a four-triple program.

Kimmie comes out with seven triples includinmg a 3Lz/3T

3Lz+3T
3T
3F+2T
3lz
3Lo
3S
2A+2T+2Lo

Total: 42.4.

Mao wins!
 
S

satorare

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Joubert definitely needs three clean quads in FS to win.
Otherwise, he can't match with Takahashi (and Lysacek) in base-values.
 
T

temperboy28

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 17, 2006
Mathman said:
It all comes down to that triple Axel. Suppose Mao inexplicably loses all her jumps except the Axel and the loop. She does

3A
3A+2Lo
3Lo+3Lo
2A+2Lo+2Lo
2A
2A
2A

That's 42.7 base points for a four-triple program.

Kimmie comes out with seven triples includinmg a 3Lz/3T

3Lz+3T
3T
3F+2T
3lz
3Lo
3S
2A+2T+2Lo

Total: 42.4.

Mao wins!
Click to expand...

In Japan especialy Mao will absolutely crush Kimmie on the GOE and PCS scores. There is more to how they score then jump value.
 
T

temperboy28

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 17, 2006
Mathman said:
Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
Click to expand...

Why would Worlds be different, it is in Japan too. If anything their scores will go even higher if they skate well at Worlds. Dont be naive to think the top Japanese will get lower scores at Worlds for similarly great performances to what they got at NHK. The reverse is true in fact.

Joubert gives up lots of possable scores with his jump layout, despite how many quads he lands. A clean Takahashi, in Japan, could still beat Joubert with 3 quads, unless Joubert improves his jump layout.
 
J

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
Mathman said:
Takahashi, Oda and Asada all got their huge scores at NHK, so there is always a little suspicion of the home crowd factor. If Joubert is able to do three quads I think the judges will have to put him ahead of Takahashi despite Takahashi's great scores on the artistic side.
Click to expand...

Yes, I think that the home crowd is a factor, but in a big competition like Worlds it can work bothways though.
 
A

ArwenIcePrincess

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 13, 2007
Can Mao repeat the 2A 3 times without penalty? (I realize she is highly unlikely to do only axels and loops, but I was just wondering...)
 
antmanb

antmanb

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 5, 2004
temperboy28 said:
Why would Worlds be different, it is in Japan too. If anything their scores will go even higher if they skate well at Worlds. Dont be naive to think the top Japanese will get lower scores at Worlds for similarly great performances to what they got at NHK. The reverse is true in fact.

Joubert gives up lots of possable scores with his jump layout, despite how many quads he lands. A clean Takahashi, in Japan, could still beat Joubert with 3 quads, unless Joubert improves his jump layout.
Click to expand...

What does the jump layout have to do with it? :scratch:

does Takahashi back load and joubert front load?

I can't say that i' had noticed.

Ant
 
Joesitz (RIP)

Joesitz (RIP)

Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Did they all skate at the same venue?

Were all the judges the same?

Scores are good to compare at one event only, imo. If the Caller is not playing games and all the elements are graded in accordance with the basic rules then one can look forward to the GoEs which are the most important factor in judging a winner and placements.

However, a list of scores for different events (say at least 5 or 6 events) for each top skater and then averaged out for each skater, might tell you more about how good he/she is .and also how consistent he/she is. (Nats should not be included).

Joe
 
S

satorare

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Joubert's Jump layout @ CoR FS

4T+2T 10.3
4S 9.5
3A 7.5
4T 9.9
3Lo+2T 6.9
3F 6.1
3Lz 6.6
3S 5.0
TOTAL 61.7

Takahashi's Jump layout @ Winter Universiade

4T 9.0
3A 7.5
3A+2T 8.8
3F+3T 10.5
3Lz+2T+2Lo 9.7
3Lo 5.5
3F 6.1
3S 5.0
TOTAL 61.9

Lysacek's Jump layout @ Four Continents

4T+3T 13.0
3A 7.5
3Lo 5.0
3S 4.5
3A+3T 12.7
3F+2T+2Lo 9.1
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.6
TOTAL 62.0

Joubert doesn't have any advantage against main rivals in base-values even with three quads. And of course, he has the most risks to fall.
If he wants to improve the layout, it's better to have two quads and one 3/3 (or 4/3). Anything less than that is a sure loser.
 
Last edited:
T

temperboy28

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 17, 2006
antmanb said:
What does the jump layout have to do with it? :scratch:

does Takahashi back load and joubert front load?

I can't say that i' had noticed.

Ant
Click to expand...

Joubert does not maximize possable points with use of as many triples in combination as possable, or combinations as possable, things like that.
 
antmanb

antmanb

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 5, 2004
temperboy28 said:
Joubert does not maximize possable points with use of as many triples in combination as possable, or combinations as possable, things like that.
Click to expand...

Oh ok i see that.

He hasn't had much success with the 4/3 often popping the triple to a double.

He'd be better off putting a 2T/2T on the end of a triple at the end of his program just to boost that side of his score.

Ant
 
Mathman

Mathman

Joined
Jun 21, 2003
satorare said:
Joubert's Jump layout @ CoR FS

TOTAL 61.7

Takahashi's Jump layout @ Winter Universiade

TOTAL 61.9

Lysacek's Jump layout @ Four Continents

TOTAL 62.0
Click to expand...
Wow, it looks like I underestimated Lysacek's chances.

Evan wins the jump contest (hey, if the judges don't notice anything funny about his Axel entry, who am I to bring it up?), add in those 8's he's going to get in PCSs... I think he should be able to get about 5 points higher than his undermarked score at U.S. Nationals.
 
Tinymavy15

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
Evan has never looked better. His quad is consistant, he has landed it twice in competioni back to back. 2 out of two attepmts is pretty. good. not oonly did he have the quad, but followed it up with a great triple toe, joubert often does a double after his quad. If joubert only does one quad, and evan does one, evan will come out on top. The key is doing a clean short. sure, we have seen him move up, but that relies on less than clean skates from the guys that are ahead. If he comes in to the freeskate in fifth, and the guys in first, secod and fourth, all skate clean, evan, no matter how good carmen is could lose a medal.
 
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