Does Kimmie need the triple Axel?

I vote yes.

For the simple reason that without the triple Axel the most CoP points you can squeeze into a program is about 45 (base values for jumps, not counting second half bonuses.) This requires a program with two triple triples (3Lz+3Lo and 3F+3T or 3Lz+3T and 3F+3Lo).

Mao Asada, on the other hand, scores 50 without breaking a sweat. Here is her jump layout last season:

3A, 2A+3T, 3F+3Lo, 2A, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lz+2Lo+2Lo = 50.0 base points.

Axel, axel, axel, and Mao quite literally has a one-fall advantage over anyone else.

Without the triple Axel Kimmie cannot win on the strength of her own performance, but must hope that Mao messes up. It could happen, but that's not the mind-set that you want going into competition.

Opinions?

Well...

I dont know... Yu-Na Kim didn't need it to beat Mao at the Junior Worlds or GPF. I think she is better off polishing her triple-triple combinations (yes that means eliminating the cheats). As much as I love Mao, she really has to land her triple-axel to do well. When she doesn't, she has a meltdown, and she has indicated, in interviews, that she has to work on her self-confidence. If Kimmie can improve the technique of her jumps and continue developing her artistry, she'll be ok, but that's assuming that Mao won't improve, and I know she will. That's why I really can't make a choice. Mao may eleminate her confidence demons and she is going to continue ballet, so I'm sure that will help her artistically. I have no idea. /=

I think Kimmie needs it. Not just to beat the asian girls but to prove to everyone that she can do that jump. I think it will boost her confidence and competitive fire.

But imo, she should work on polishing the 3-3s first before putting the 3axel back in her programs.

Just like carolinefan177, I don't know what to think. I'm kinf od annoyed that Kimmie stated all year that she was going to put the 3Axel pack in, and she never did. I'd rather she just say nothing, practice it, let people comment, but without making promises. This just really irked me all year...
However, I believe the 3Axel would help her regain her World title, because right now, the Asian girls have great jumps and artistry, so the 3Axel would help dimishish the gap in the program components between Kimmie and her main rivals. She also said she was working on her artistry this year, and I haven't seen a great difference, and it this extra work on artistry might have caused her to lose the consistency of her jumps.
All in all, I'm not sure. I think Kimmie needs to either have a suddden enlightment for artistry or work three times as much as her rivals to catch up with them. And I haven't yet mentionned that she had better fix her 3ToeLoop cheat before the judges catch it. And please tell me she won't talk about the loops in combination as much as she talked about the 3Axel. Just do it, stop making oral promises.


Kypma

PS Don't get me wrong; I would love to see Kimmie at the top again, but not because of the others' faltering, but rather because of her strength.

carolinefan177 said:

I dont know... Yu-Na Kim didn't need it to beat Mao at the Junior Worlds or GPF.

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That's because Mao messed up severely. You don't want to go into a competition with the mindset of "yeah, I can beat them if they make TWO major mistakes".

Also, I have to say that getting real Triple Toeloops is a bigger concern for Kimmie than the 3Axle. It would be nice if she could improve upon BOTH of those for next year, though.

~Z

Kypma said:

Just like carolinefan177, I don't know what to think. I'm kinf od annoyed that Kimmie stated all year that she was going to put the 3Axel pack in, and she never did.

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She did the 3Axle at one Grand Prix event, TEB, and fell on it.

~Z

Zuranthium said:

She did the 3Axle at one Grand Prix event, TEB, and fell on it.

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Oops, guess I'd forgotten about that. Although she did keep saying in the months leading up to Worlds that she would have it by then... I think it's just too much talking and less actual doing. I'd rather she just say she is working on getting it consistant, than saying she'll have it by [whatever competition in the year].



Kypma

I think its good for Kimmie to keep talking about the triple axel. The more she talks about it and the more people start expecting her to do it, maybe thats the motivation she needs.

I think Kimmie needs to get her triple Axel consistant and her artistry as well. Actually her lack of feel for the music may hurt her more as the Asian and Asian American gals continue to mature in their craft. If her artistic sense does not come alive soon, Ms. Meissner will indeed become a one time World Champion and be left in the ice spray.

Mathman said:

I vote yes.

Mao Asada, on the other hand, scores 50 without breaking a sweat. Here is her jump layout last season:

3A, 2A+3T, 3F+3Lo, 2A, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lz+2Lo+2Lo = 50.0 base points.

Axel, axel, axel, and Mao quite literally has a one-fall advantage over anyone else.

Without the triple Axel Kimmie cannot win on the strength of her own performance, but must hope that Mao messes up. It could happen, but that's not the mind-set that you want going into competition.

Opinions?

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Let's see real scores from competitions.

Mao got 49.68 from her jumping passes at 2006 NHK and got 50.01 at 2007 Worlds. These two scores are her best scores at real competitions. On the other hand, Miki got 51.23 at 2006 Skate America and Kimmie got 50.75 at 2006 Worlds without triple axel.

Mao hasn't one-fall advantage at all. I think it is already proved that Kimmie can win over Mao without triple axel. (Of course, Kimmie needs to skate very well.)

I think she does need it ...especially if she continues to have the problems she had with the lutz this season. This is just my opinion, but I feel she has very little else to draw upon other than her jumps. Yu-Na is light years ahead of her IMO, in presentation ... hence, she can succeed without the 3A, where Kimmie can't.

Kimmie's a sweet kid, but I think we may have already seen her best.
JMHO

Does this mean that Hughes, Czisny, Leung, Taylor, and the beautiful blonde Megan all need 3As? Is this what skating is coming t?. One jump tells it all?

What if Miki regains her quad (although I doubt it), does that mean everyone should also have a quad?

What if Mao falls on her 3A? (It's a slippery sport)

What if YuNa skates a perfect routine without a 3A?

What if Sasha Cohen makes a comeback with a perfect LP?

Oh these what if questions!

Joe

Joesitz said:

Does this mean that Hughes, Czisny, Leung, Taylor, and the beautiful blonde Megan all need 3As? Is this what skating is coming t?. One jump tells it all?

What if Miki regains her quad (although I doubt it), does that mean everyone should also have a quad?

What if Mao falls on her 3A? (It's a slippery sport)

What if YuNa skates a perfect routine without a 3A?

What if Sasha Cohen makes a comeback with a perfect LP?

Oh these what if questions!

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Ok, Hughes I'm not sure of, but I think she can rivalize with Kimmie if she gets her jumps down. I haven't seen her skate much, so I can't really comment on her presentation.
When Alissa's on, and she does all of her jumps, her artistry and spins can compensate for the lack of a triple axel or quad.
Leung... are we talking about Mira Leung of Canada or of another one I don't know? I'm not sure about this girl, especially since her statement about Worlds, it seemed a little too pretentious for me. She also needs to work on her jumps and presentation.
Taylor, I don't know. She was on such a high last year, and this season something didn't work out for her. I don't know her much, so no comments here.
No clue who Meagan is, sorry...
One jump doesn't necessarily tell us fans who will win, but it does give those competitors who have them a couple of extra points, which can always come in handy. It can also compensate for a lack of artistry or weaker spins. It's all about maximizing point totals in competitions.

If Miki regains her quad... good for her. If it becomes consistent, it's even better. She'll have those extra points to make up for other elements or presentation (I think someone noted that she does not like spiral sequences, so here is our point exchange).

Is Mao falls on her triple Axel... she's already shown what happens; she unravels and produces something uninspiring. But when she lands it, she keeps her usual presentation skills, which are higher than Miki's (based on results from 2007 Worlds LP). If she can get stronger mentally, then even if she falls, her performance will be great. The jump really just adds to her confidence, I think.

If Yu-na skates a perfect routine without a triple axel, she can rivalize with Mao, Miki, and everyone else. Without her mistakes in the LP at Worlds, I believe her score would have compared to Miki's, and maybe even Mao's (although that might be a stretch).

If Sasha does a perfect LP, I'm not sure she can rivalize with the Asian girls, because I can't recall a perfect LP under CoP... I'd need the score to compare. But, instinctively, I don't think she could compare with the top ladies right now because she doesn't have a triple-triple combination.



So much of skating revolves around the circumstances - a skater alone is not entirely responsible of their fate, as I have noticed while answering all the questions. Also, PCS sometimes go with the jump content, so... we really need judges that focus solely on the program components without being influenced by the jumps.:yes:



Kypma

Actually 3A is not a jump of "7.5 points" for women.
Everytime Mao lands 3A and makes the rest OK, her PCS goes up.
I guess the REAL point value of women's 3A is 10.

I want Meissner to join Mao and Ando to push the technical envelope of women's figure skating.

Joesitz said:

Does this mean that Hughes, Czisny, Leung, Taylor, and the beautiful blonde Megan all need 3As? Is this what skating is coming t?. One jump tells it all?

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It's not that one jump tells all...it's that Mao Asada has the 3Axel PLUS a consistent, difficult 3/3 combo PLUS good spins PLUS strong skating skills and footwork. She is super-human and if people want to beat her that's simply how they have to be too. That is what skating is coming to.

~Z

I am not sure if she needs it. But it seems that she wants to master it. Then the younger the better. She is still very slim, which is her advantage in mastering it

Mao might do 3A and 3A+2T in the next free program. I've just read the following article in a local sport news agency (Sport Hochi) (In Japanese) although I don't know how credible this can be because there still is a long time until the new season starts.

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20070520-00000027-sph-spo

I feel that Mao has gained weight a little bit...? Still very slim though

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7FKdKaY4z4

She also wanted to announce the name of the composer of her new program, but she couldn't remember what it was....(so adorable)

morninglight said:

I feel that Mao has gained weight a little bit...? Still very slim though

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She's been growing since last year. Probably all done, or nearly so, with that.

~Z

It is reported that Yu-na says in an interview that she will practice 3A if she feels that she really needs it but that she does not feel so at this moment. She would like to work on enhancing stamina, spiral, spins and consistency in her jumps (YONHAP NEWS, In Japanese):

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20070510-00000009-yonh-spo

She has a very nice, happy smile here

http://www.nikkansports.com/sports/p-sp-tp0-20070520-201453.html

Mao has already made her free program for the next season. She will definitely include two 3A's. Her first competition is a Japan vs USA event scheduled to be held October 6-7 in Japan.