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Thread: Indicators and Factors for Predicting Worlds.

  1. #1
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Indicators and Factors for Predicting Worlds.

    From what you know now, how would rate a skater:(use a scale 1-5 with 5 as very important)

    Indicators

    Last season's results? _____

    Past seasons' results? _____

    Consistency? _____

    Known Faults Corrected? _____

    Forum Practice Reports? _____

    Solid Coaching/Choreography _____

    Factors

    Home Country Venue? _____

    Experienced in Most Competitions? _____

    Versatility? _____

    Whole Package? _____

    Pressure Control? _____

    What else can be listed to see if your favorite or hopeful really has what it takes?

    Joe

  2. #2
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    The US desperately wants 3 spots for ladies.
    Placing of Meissner and the second skater (most likely Hughes) should be higher than the "neutral" estimation.

  3. #3
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by satorare View Post
    The US desperately wants 3 spots for ladies.
    I don't know about "desperately," but that's what they want, all right.

    Unortunately for USFS, wanting isn't the same as having.

  4. #4
    Trixie Schuba's biggest fan! blue dog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by satorare View Post
    The US desperately wants 3 spots for ladies.
    Placing of Meissner and the second skater (most likely Hughes) should be higher than the "neutral" estimation.
    And they'll get it. The top two US skaters will most likely place in the top 6 of the world championships. While the other skaters are great, they have a lot of problems to fix, like:

    Yukari Nakano's horrible wrap
    Joannie Rochette's inconsistency (she's become a lot like Josee Chouinard)
    Miki's edging and streeeeeetch
    Carolina needs to be able to skate past the 2:50 mark in her FS
    Yu-Na's facial expressions are forced. Look at her eyes--the smiles don't extend there.

    Of course the American girls aren't without fault...

    Emily needs to land those jumps. Period
    Kimmie needs to be more dynamic
    Alissa needs to fix her mental toughness (like Joannie, she's becoming a lot like Josee Chouinard)

  5. #5
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    All right! If it's numbers, it's my kind of thread!

    Indicators

    Last season's results? __4___

    Past seasons' results? __2___

    Consistency? __2___

    Known Faults Corrected? __3___

    Forum Practice Reports? __1___

    Solid Coaching/Choreography __?___

    Factors

    Home Country Venue? __1___

    Experienced in Most Competitions? __1___

    Versatility? __2___

    Whole Package? __3___

    Pressure Control? __5___

  6. #6
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blue dog View Post
    And they'll get it. The top two US skaters will most likely place in the top 6 of the world championships.
    Can't be guarenteed at all. Last year the three American ladies got 4th, 9th and 15th. Will they be improved versus the field next year?

    (BTW, this thread has already been hi-jacked. Should I split it?)

  7. #7
    Shoe Diva
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    Unlike my pal Mathman, I'm terrible w/ numbers if its not money, but I'll give this a shot...

    Indicators

    Last season's results? __3___

    Past seasons' results? __1___

    Consistency? __5

    Known Faults Corrected? __2___

    Forum Practice Reports? __0___ (notorious for being bs)

    Solid Coaching/Choreography __2___

    Factors

    Home Country Venue? __3___

    Experienced in Most Competitions? __3___

    Versatility? __2___

    Whole Package? __4

    Pressure Control? __5+1

    In my opinion, nothing counts more than being able to control those nerves - even more so than consistency... and I tend to root for the skater who can make diamonds out pressure - This being the most disappointing thing about the latest crop of ladies... the majority of them have allowed the pressure get to them at one crucial time or another... so disappointing - but then again, I'm an uber Kwan fan, so what can you expect?
    Last edited by Kwanford Wife; 06-21-2007 at 03:00 PM.

  8. #8
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Here is why I think the most important indicator is last year's results.

    Well, basically, by default. It's the only thing we really have to go on. Everything else is woulda, coulda, shoulda. It would be a big surprise if Lambiel, Takahashi and Joubert were not strongly in the mix next year. Same with Ando, Asada and Kim.

    In dance, I am looking not so much at last year's placements per se as I am at teams' movement. Who is rising (Domnina & Shabalin, Virtue & Moir, Davis & White) versus who is standing still.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kwanfordwife
    In my opinion, nothing counts more than being able to control those nerves - even more so than consistency... and I tend to root for the skater who can make diamonds out of pressure.
    ITA. They all have talent, but I think the number one difference between the "great ones" and the "not quites" is this. Can you channel that adrenalin rush and make it work for you instead of against you?
    Last edited by Mathman; 06-21-2007 at 02:50 PM.

  9. #9
    I'll try defying gravity, you can't pull me down zephyrskates's Avatar
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    the US have 3 spots this year right? i just hope that the USFSA looks ahead to 2009 and sends delegates that will secure three spots for LA..
    we have a deep field of juniors that will only be age eligible for the 2009 world championships and it will be a shame if we get to see only two skaters from the US in both ladies and men. plus it's also the qualys for the olympics.

  10. #10
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zephyrskates View Post
    the US have 3 spots this year right? i just hope that the USFSA looks ahead to 2009 and sends delegates that will secure three spots for LA.
    Well, they will send the three top eligible finishers at 2008 Nationals and hope for the best. I don't see what more "looking ahead" the USFSA can do except send the best we have.

  11. #11
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    There is the possibility of Sasha skating who will get a boost from the judges. If she does skate she will want L.A. for obvious reasons. I kinda like to see her there along with Kimmie and Bebe. (that's a hope; not a prediction)

    Joe

  12. #12
    Rooting for the divas with Kwanford Spun Silver's Avatar
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    I stink at numbers but based solely on Miki, my rating would be as follows:

    Indicators

    Last season's results? __1___

    Past seasons' results? __5__

    Consistency? __3___

    Known Faults Corrected? __2___

    Forum Practice Reports? ___1__

    Solid Coaching/Choreography ___5__

    Factors

    Home Country Venue? __5___

    Experienced in Most Competitions? __5___

    Versatility? __2__

    Whole Package? __3___

    Pressure Control? _2____

  13. #13
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I filled out the form for Oda in the morning and Berntsson in the afternoon so as not to compare them.

    With Known Faults Corrected and Forum Practice Report as being Not Applicable I came up with these scores:

    Oda = 26 (blame it on the Tokyo Worlds)

    Berntsson = 29. (credit the home town hero)

    Of coure, GP, Euros, 4 CC results may change my mind.

    Joe

  14. #14
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Okay i am doing this for Caroline:


    Last season's results? ___4__

    Past seasons' results? _____

    Consistency? __5___

    Known Faults Corrected? __5___

    Forum Practice Reports? __5___

    Solid Coaching/Choreography ___4__

    Factors

    Home Country Venue? _4____

    Experienced in Most Competitions? __2___

    Versatility? ___2__

    Whole Package? ___3__

    Pressure Control? __3___

    seems like she did pretty well

  15. #15
    nefertiti..reincarnate
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    I came up with these scores:
    Oda = 26 (blame it on the Tokyo Worlds)
    Berntsson = 29. (credit the home town hero)
    Of coure, GP, Euros, 4 CC results may change my mind.

    Joe
    I didn't get the meaning of adding up the "importance number" for each of the indicators and factors, to get a single sum.
    Are you filling your own list with your evaluation of each skater, Joe?
    Or are you saying Berntsson is a slightly more predictable skater than Oda?

    ......
    From your original intention as I took it, here is my list.

    Indicators

    Last season's results? __4___

    Past seasons' results? __4___

    Consistency in results? __5___

    Experienced in Most Competitions? __4___

    Rate of falls? __4___


    Factors

    Pressure Control? __5___

    Age (as potential) ? __4___

    Solid Coaching/Choreography? __4___

    Known Faults Corrected? __4___

    Versatility in skating? __3___

    Home Country Venue? __2___

    Forum Practice Reports? __1___

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