Indicators and Factors for Predicting Worlds.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 21, 2007

From what you know now, how would rate a skater

use a scale 1-5 with 5 as very important)

Indicators

Last season's results? _____

Past seasons' results? _____

Consistency? _____

Known Faults Corrected? _____

Forum Practice Reports? _____

Solid Coaching/Choreography _____

Factors

Home Country Venue? _____

Experienced in Most Competitions? _____

Versatility? _____

Whole Package? _____

Pressure Control? _____

What else can be listed to see if your favorite or hopeful really has what it takes?

Joe

satorare · Jun 21, 2007

The US desperately wants 3 spots for ladies.
Placing of Meissner and the second skater (most likely Hughes) should be higher than the "neutral" estimation.

Mathman · Jun 21, 2007

satorare said:
The US desperately wants 3 spots for ladies.

I don't know about "desperately," but that's what they want, all right.

Unortunately for USFS, wanting isn't the same as having.

blue dog · Jun 21, 2007

satorare said:
The US desperately wants 3 spots for ladies.
Placing of Meissner and the second skater (most likely Hughes) should be higher than the "neutral" estimation.

And they'll get it. The top two US skaters will most likely place in the top 6 of the world championships. While the other skaters are great, they have a lot of problems to fix, like:

Yukari Nakano's horrible wrap
Joannie Rochette's inconsistency (she's become a lot like Josee Chouinard)
Miki's edging and streeeeeetch
Carolina needs to be able to skate past the 2:50 mark in her FS
Yu-Na's facial expressions are forced. Look at her eyes--the smiles don't extend there.

Of course the American girls aren't without fault...

Emily needs to land those jumps. Period
Kimmie needs to be more dynamic
Alissa needs to fix her mental toughness (like Joannie, she's becoming a lot like Josee Chouinard)

Mathman · Jun 21, 2007

All right! If it's numbers, it's my kind of thread! :rock:

Indicators

Last season's results? __4___

Past seasons' results? __2___

Consistency? __2___

Known Faults Corrected? __3___

Forum Practice Reports? __1___

Solid Coaching/Choreography __?___

Factors

Home Country Venue? __1___

Experienced in Most Competitions? __1___

Versatility? __2___

Whole Package? __3___

Pressure Control? __5___

Mathman · Jun 21, 2007

blue dog said:
And they'll get it. The top two US skaters will most likely place in the top 6 of the world championships.

Can't be guarenteed at all. Last year the three American ladies got 4th, 9th and 15th. Will they be improved versus the field next year?

(BTW, this thread has already been hi-jacked. Should I split it?)

Kwanford Wife · Jun 21, 2007

Unlike my pal Mathman, I'm terrible w/ numbers if its not money, but I'll give this a shot...

Indicators

Last season's results? __3___

Past seasons' results? __1___

Consistency? __5

Known Faults Corrected? __2___

Forum Practice Reports? __0___ (notorious for being bs)

Solid Coaching/Choreography __2___

Factors

Home Country Venue? __3___

Experienced in Most Competitions? __3___

Versatility? __2___

Whole Package? __4

Pressure Control? __5+1

In my opinion, nothing counts more than being able to control those nerves - even more so than consistency... and I tend to root for the skater who can make diamonds out pressure - This being the most disappointing thing about the latest crop of ladies... the majority of them have allowed the pressure get to them at one crucial time or another... so disappointing - but then again, I'm an uber Kwan fan, so what can you expect?

Mathman · Jun 21, 2007

Here is why I think the most important indicator is last year's results.

Well, basically, by default. It's the only thing we really have to go on. Everything else is woulda, coulda, shoulda. It would be a big surprise if Lambiel, Takahashi and Joubert were not strongly in the mix next year. Same with Ando, Asada and Kim.

In dance, I am looking not so much at last year's placements per se as I am at teams' movement. Who is rising (Domnina & Shabalin, Virtue & Moir, Davis & White) versus who is standing still.

Kwanfordwife said:
In my opinion, nothing counts more than being able to control those nerves - even more so than consistency... and I tend to root for the skater who can make diamonds out of pressure.

ITA. They all have talent, but I think the number one difference between the "great ones" and the "not quites" is this. Can you channel that adrenalin rush and make it work for you instead of against you?

zephyrskates · Jun 21, 2007

the US have 3 spots this year right? i just hope that the USFSA looks ahead to 2009 and sends delegates that will secure three spots for LA..
we have a deep field of juniors that will only be age eligible for the 2009 world championships and it will be a shame if we get to see only two skaters from the US in both ladies and men. plus it's also the qualys for the olympics.

Mathman · Jun 21, 2007

zephyrskates said:
the US have 3 spots this year right? i just hope that the USFSA looks ahead to 2009 and sends delegates that will secure three spots for LA.

Well, they will send the three top eligible finishers at 2008 Nationals and hope for the best. I don't see what more "looking ahead" the USFSA can do except send the best we have.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 21, 2007

There is the possibility of Sasha skating who will get a boost from the judges. If she does skate she will want L.A. for obvious reasons. I kinda like to see her there along with Kimmie and Bebe. (that's a hope; not a prediction)

Joe

Spun Silver · Jun 21, 2007

I stink at numbers but based solely on Miki, my rating would be as follows:

Indicators

Last season's results? __1___

Past seasons' results? __5__

Consistency? __3___

Known Faults Corrected? __2___

Forum Practice Reports? ___1__

Solid Coaching/Choreography ___5__

Factors

Home Country Venue? __5___

Experienced in Most Competitions? __5___

Versatility? __2__

Whole Package? __3___

Pressure Control? _2____

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 21, 2007

I filled out the form for Oda in the morning and Berntsson in the afternoon so as not to compare them.

With Known Faults Corrected and Forum Practice Report as being Not Applicable I came up with these scores:

Oda = 26 (blame it on the Tokyo Worlds)

Berntsson = 29. (credit the home town hero)

Of coure, GP, Euros, 4 CC results may change my mind.

Joe

Tinymavy15 · Jun 21, 2007

Okay i am doing this for Caroline:

Last season's results? ___4__

Past seasons' results? _____

Consistency? __5___

Known Faults Corrected? __5___

Forum Practice Reports? __5___

Solid Coaching/Choreography ___4__

Factors

Home Country Venue? _4____

Experienced in Most Competitions? __2___

Versatility? ___2__

Whole Package? ___3__

Pressure Control? __3___

seems like she did pretty well

sorcerer · Jun 21, 2007

Joesitz said:
I came up with these scores:
Oda = 26 (blame it on the Tokyo Worlds)
Berntsson = 29. (credit the home town hero)
Of coure, GP, Euros, 4 CC results may change my mind.

Joe

I didn't get the meaning of adding up the "importance number" for each of the indicators and factors, to get a single sum.
Are you filling your own list with your evaluation of each skater, Joe?
Or are you saying Berntsson is a slightly more predictable skater than Oda?

......
From your original intention as I took it, here is my list.

Indicators

Last season's results? __4___

Past seasons' results? __4___

Consistency in results? __5___

Experienced in Most Competitions? __4___

Rate of falls? __4___

Factors

Pressure Control? __5___

Age (as potential) ? __4___

Solid Coaching/Choreography? __4___

Known Faults Corrected? __4___

Versatility in skating? __3___

Home Country Venue? __2___

Forum Practice Reports? __1___

Hsuhs · Jun 21, 2007

Frankly, I don't get it either.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 21, 2007

Sorcerer

I didn't get the meaning of adding up the "importance number" for each of the indicators and factors, to get a single sum.
Are you filling your own list with your evaluation of each skater, Joe?
Or are you saying Berntsson is a slightly more predictable skater than Oda?

This exercise was to clear up the numerous posts of fans saying things like: He needs a quad; she has no presentation; she fell twice; very bad Worlds; spins not centred; should do well in home town; just not consistent, etc, etc. All these types of reasons for a skater's probability seem to rely on one and only one problem for the skater. I just believe there are more reasons when a skater is not predictable. I devised this hastily to see where predictability may work. Of course, viewing skaters at Euros, 4CCs and the GPs is going to bring in more data which could change any rationale at the present time.

By all means, make a different method of predicting the Worlds. I would like to read of a better system than just saying she needs a 3A and disregarding other factors. What are those factors? I can not believe one trick can win or lose a competition especially under the CoP.

(I use the term indicators and factors because that's how I play the stock market, but to be honest, my indicators are not always right on.

)

Joe

visaliakid · Jun 22, 2007

I kinda like Joe's choices for evaluation. :agree: So here's my numbers...

Indicators

Last season's results? __2___ (IMHO... Only important to the extent of serving to be a benchmark for the new season)

Past seasons' results? __1___ (Important to me only when skater has not improved over career)

Consistency? __3___ (Got to have this quality to succeed, but serves only as solid foundation for remaining factors)

Known Faults Corrected? __4___ (This is a most important indicator and provides judges the basis for higher scores)

Forum Practice Reports? __1___ (Interesting but are they always accurate, and how much can you trust them)

Solid Coaching/Choreography __4___ (A great coach and choreographer can elevate a skater to the next level)

Factors

Home Country Venue? __1___ (Least important in my thinking... a skater should be able to bring it... in any venue)

Experienced in Most Competitions? __2___ (This is a gained factor over time, so not as important as others here)

Versatility? __3___ (Important factor that underlies and supports "The Whole Package")

Whole Package? __5___ (Whole Package skaters have highest chance for success... a most important factor for me)

Pressure Control? __5___ (Having this factor allows for consistancy, freedom of expression and clear thinking when needed...also a most important factor)

Well Damn... now that I completed this little exercise, I actually re-read the thread title... and noticed this was for World's only. I really constructed my grading and comments towards all competitions in one season... so everyone may totally disagree with how I came to decide levels of importance.

visaliakid · Jun 22, 2007

Wow... now I realize that these responses are completely out of context to the intent of the thread. Oh well.. I will have to rethink and do it again.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 22, 2007

Mathman said:
Here is why I think the most important indicator is last year's results.

Well, basically, by default. It's the only thing we really have to go on. Everything else is woulda, coulda, shoulda. It would be a big surprise if Lambiel, Takahashi and Joubert were not strongly in the mix next year. Same with Ando, Asada and Kim.

No one is saying that those mentioned skaters are being overlooked. They fit well into the sytem.

In dance, I am looking not so much at last year's placements per se as I am at teams' movement. Who is rising (Domnina & Shabalin, Virtue & Moir, Davis & White) versus who is standing still.

Apparaently 'last year's results' as you say, doesn't always predict so a combination of factors would be better. That's the point of a system - not necessarily mine. My point was 'he wont win unless he completes that 3A and he won 2 Worlds with a faulty 3A and when he landed the 3A he gets only a bronze. So the solo reason didn't do it.

ITA. They all have talent, but I think the number one difference between the "great ones" and the "not quites" is this. Can you channel that adrenalin rush and make it work for you instead of against you?

Where did you go with this? I worked out a system for predicting which takes in many factors. You have concluded that only one factor is the most important and that is "Last Year's Results". In the sampling of Oda v. Berntsson, you have to agree that Berntsson will do better than Oda this coming season based on what you consider the most important factor in predicting. I just think there are many factors for predictability - in any contest. The upcoming Summer Olympics will demonstrate this quite well (somewhat like permutations and combinations).

My system is not perfect, but I do believe there is more to predictions than one factor.

Joe

Indicators and Factors for Predicting Worlds.

Joesitz (RIP)

satorare

Match Penalty

Mathman

blue dog

Trixie Schuba's biggest fan!

Mathman

Mathman

Kwanford Wife

Mathman

zephyrskates

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

Spun Silver

Joesitz (RIP)

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

sorcerer

Hsuhs

Joesitz (RIP)

visaliakid

visaliakid

Joesitz (RIP)

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