Will Mao Asada Score "210"?

Mathman · Jul 7, 2007

No lady has scored over 200 points in international competition under the ISU judging system. But with several scores (Asada, Slutskaya, Ando) in the high 190’s, that barrier won’t hold them back for long.

I figure that the “perfectly balanced” ladies program should go 70-70-70 = 210. 70 points in the SP, 70 points in tech and 70 points in PCSs in the LP.

Will Mao Asada achieve this next year?

My prediction: in a cakewalk. If she skates even reasonably cleanly and hits most of the jumps she is talking about (two triple Axels, two 3-3 combos), she could get way up in the 50s on jump elements with a little help from the GOE. Add 23-25 points for non-jump elements and she is pushing 80 on the tech side.

In the ladies LP, to find the total PCS take the average of all scores and multiply by 8. So for instance, if Mao got straight 8.0s that would be a total PCS of 64.

Tinymavy15 · Jul 7, 2007

I think that she will no doubt get to 200 this year. Not sure about 210 though. But we'll see. How consisitant she is and what her jump layout is. somthing tell me ( maybe it's tersova) that she will have a killer short program that will break a lot of records.

slutskayafan21 · Jul 7, 2007

If she skates her absolute best she had a possible chance to crack 210 this past season. Now she is apparently adding even more jump content so of course she can if she puts it all together in both programs. However I hope she focuses on the right things. For all the hype and praise of her abilities, she still has yet to win a World title, through varying circumstances of course, but still that should be her #1 goal this coming season. She also needs to be consistent. She lost 3 of the 4 main events she skated last season and showed consistency problems.

slutskayafan21 · Jul 7, 2007

I think Kim and Ando also have a shot to crack 200. If Meissner adds the triple axel to her two triple-triples in the free, and skates a totally clean short and free she might have a shot to crack 200 too. Not sure about anyone else. I do not know whether it is possible for Kostner or not even with her best performances, and nobody else for sure.

PolymerBob · Jul 7, 2007

What a relief! When I saw the thread, I thought Mao's diet went horribly wrong. :biggrin:

GoldMedalist · Jul 7, 2007

PolymerBob said:
What a relief! When I saw the thread, I thought Mao's diet went horribly wrong.

Little Mao, 210lbs??? :laugh:

flying camel · Jul 8, 2007

I'm sorry, I felt she was way overscored last season. Some of her positions are just not first rate to be scoring like she does. I don't feel all her jumps are that great either. She has a nice presentation on the ice, but I don't see how she got the scores she received.

Mathman · Jul 8, 2007

flying camel said:
...I don't see how she got the scores she received.

To me, that is the one indisputable advantage to the new judging system. We can see how she got the scores she received.

In her worlds LP, on the tech side Mao did 3A (6.50 after GOE), 2A+3T< (3.40), 3F+3Lo (10.90). etc., etc., etc.

Add it all up, and that's how she got her score.

So now, what about the Program Compenent Scores, which are admittedly more subjective?

Mao finished a little ahead of Miki (correct), Meissner (correct) and Rochette (correct), but only by about four points ( = the difference between, say, an average of 7.75 and an average of 7.50).

She also finished slightly ahead of Kim (2 points), but Kim fell twice, disrupting the flow of her program.

GoldMedalist · Jul 8, 2007

Mao's PCS at Worlds were higher than Arakawa's and Cohen's from the Olympics. I thought that was hilarious. I would have given her 60.

Kypma · Jul 8, 2007

Mathman said:
She also finished slightly ahead of Kim (2 points), but Kim fell twice, disrupting the flow of her program.

But should falls really be counted in the PCS marks? I'd say they go more in the technical aspect, whether you land your jumps or not. I though PCS get interrupted when the skaters takes off for the jumps and resume upon landing. I don't think it's fair that falls affect both technical AND PCS, nor that more difficult jumps like the 3A increase Skating Skills, nor that all PCS be around the same value. Just because someone has good skating skills does not mean that the interpretation is equal...

Kypma

Mathman · Jul 8, 2007

GoldMedalist said:
Mao's PCS at Worlds were higher than Arakawa's and Cohen's from the Olympics...

But not as high as Plushenko (65.94, factored like ladies).

But, yeah, Mao's Performance/Execution and Interpretation scores seem to be the ones that are most out of line, compared to Cohen and Arakawa.

Mathman · Jul 8, 2007

Kypma said:
But should falls really be counted in the PCS marks?

That's a good question.

The criteria for program components emphasize things like maintaining the thematic character of the music throughout the performance.

If you are crashing into the boards, or awkwardly flailing your arms about trying to hold your landing, that's not really maintaining the mood and spirit of, say, Thais.

On the other hand, is there such a thing as a triple Lutz in the style of Romeo and Juliet, which is different than a triple Lutz after the fashion of an Argentine Tango? (Maybe in the latter case, you could do a 'Tano? -- Ole!) :think:

carolinefan177 · Jul 8, 2007

flying camel said:
I'm sorry, I felt she was way overscored last season. Some of her positions are just not first rate to be scoring like she does. I don't feel all her jumps are that great either. She has a nice presentation on the ice, but I don't see how she got the scores she received.

I have to disagree with you; her spins are fine. She has proper leg positions and stretch, not to mention a very good spiral sequence. Also, I think her jumps are magnificent. After all, she lands the triple axel and triple flip-triple loop, and gets good height and tight rotation. The only thing I think she has a problem with are sustaining her landings and her flutz, but she is a hard worker and is likely going to fix them.

Here is a recent exhibition showing some new spin positions!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJF4zUnRqCw

The only thing i'm worried about is consistency problems. If she misses the triple axel, she has a meltdown...

Tinymavy15 · Jul 8, 2007

carolinefan177 said:
The only thing i'm worried about is consistency problems. If she misses the triple axel, she has a meltdown...

i have noticed that too. Whenever she hit the axel she was okay for the rest of the program, but when she popped it or fell (or both) you could tell that her mind was not on the rest of the program. She probaly wanted to try it all from the begining. having the axel first in the program might be a mistake for her. She seems to have no porblem with her stamina, in fact she puts a lot of her difficult jumps including her combos after the halfway mark. maybe she should but the 3 axel later in the program as well, this way if she misses it, she has laready a few good hard jumping passes under her belt.

jaejang2001 · Jul 8, 2007

Mao is overscored

Do You check her LP?
Her LP score was hugely inflated.
She has rarely skated a clean long program.
Two footed her axel ,
under rotated her 2A/3T combo,
prerotated and no good landing 3-3 jump,
four triple Flip(no 2 triple lutz)

and Junior level choreography...

There were no toeloops or salchows.

She did not deserve the score she got at worlds.

But she got the world record in LP.

Wrlmy · Jul 9, 2007

I feel like scores tend to inflate over the time, so direct comparison of Mao's score at 2007 to Sasha's or Irina's at previous worlds may not be as probable as we assume (which is supposed to be the forte of new COP). I might be wrong on my score inflation hypothesis, but I have a problem with your "junior level choreography" comment. Yes, I understand some FS fans feel that Mao doesn't deserve a world record score without having 7 clean triples, but no need to undermine her overall quality as a skater. Her technical score was well calculated by the judges after all, and she deserved her pcs as much as Yu-na did.

carolinefan177 · Jul 9, 2007

jaejang2001 said:
Do You check her LP?
Her LP score was hugely inflated.
She has rarely skated a clean long program.
Two footed her axel ,
under rotated her 2A/3T combo,
prerotated and no good landing 3-3 jump,
four triple Flip(no 2 triple lutz)

and Junior level choreography...

There were no toeloops or salchows.

She did not deserve the score she got at worlds.

But she got the world record in LP.

Well, I'm sorry you feel that way, but to me, Mao deserved her scores. Sure her double axel-triple toe was two footed and downgraded and that is reflected on the judges' scoresheet, but I don't think she prerotated her jump; it looked fine to me, and she got +GOES for a her height and execution; however, she probably missed a couple tenths of a point due to her weak landing (she doesn't hold it out like Yu-Na Kim or some of the other ladies). She did two triple flips and two lutzs. Sure, they were flutzs, however, many skaters flutz, and she is penalized accordingly and will be, even more so, in the next season. Her choreography was brilliant, and to say that she didn't have that is an insult to the great Lori Nichol; Mao just wasn't as EXPRESSIVE. Also, are you saying just because she has no triple toeloop or triple salchow she is not a great skater? What about her triple axel or her ability to put some of her difficult combinations near the end of her prgram and still execute them? Yu-Na doesn't have a triple loop (but hopefully soon); is she a bad skater too? I don't think so.

That's my two cents.

jaejang2001 · Jul 9, 2007

yes,

Mao is one of The best skater.

but I think Mao doesn't deserve
ThE HIGHEST score.

I feel The complete game must be given the highest score .

Her Sp choreography is the best one ,
but no lp.(It is to say that her motion is no good , not to say that is an insult to the great Lori Nichol)

And Check her prerotation jump.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWff_0oECjc

tagmats · Jul 9, 2007

kandidy · Jul 9, 2007

flying camel said:
I'm sorry, I felt she was way overscored last season. Some of her positions are just not first rate to be scoring like she does. I don't feel all her jumps are that great either. She has a nice presentation on the ice, but I don't see how she got the scores she received.

Agree!
False take off and underrotated.

Will Mao Asada Score "210"?

Mathman

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

PolymerBob

GoldMedalist

Match Penalty

flying camel

Mathman

GoldMedalist

Match Penalty

Kypma

Mathman

Mathman

carolinefan177

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

jaejang2001

Match Penalty

Wrlmy

carolinefan177

jaejang2001

Match Penalty

tagmats

kandidy

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